Mike Solli
Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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***CAUTION – LOTS OF CALCULATIONS***  
China/Manchuoko/Korea (C/M/K) Oil/Fuel
I’ve noticed that quite a few Japanese players suck the fuel and oil out of C/M/K early in the war. I propose that fuel and oil should not be pulled from C/M/K. In fact, after the SRA is liberated, I propose you begin to ship oil and (eventually) fuel to this region. Below is my argument.
Note that this is based on Japanese industry on 7 Dec 41 and does not take into account any future gains or losses based on changes in territory or destruction of industry. I always use a house rule that does not allow bombing of industry in China. I believe the lack of this house rule is can provide results in the game that are not intended. The Allied player has enough problems feeding the Great Yellow Horde. Should the Japanese player bomb the industry in Allied controlled China, that Horde would starve. Anyway, this is not an argument for or against that house rule…..
Also note that C/M/K produces a surplus of ~717k resources per month. Suck as much of that as you can to Japan. That will account for almost 69% of Japan’s need (outside of what the Home Islands produce).
Here are some stats on Japanese controlled industry in C/M/K:
At start balances:
Fuel: 971,700
Oil: 379,650
Monthly Production:
Fuel: 32,400
Oil: 18,000
Monthly Need:
Fuel: 42,600
Oil: 36,000
Monthly Shortage (Need – Production):
Fuel: 10,200
Oil: 18,000
Ok, those are the numbers. Now let’s analyze them a bit. Oil first because all it does is get refined to a useable form, namely fuel.
Divide the “at start balance” by the “monthly shortage” (379,650/18,000) and you get 21 months. This means that come ~1 Sep 42, the surplus of oil is gone. Now, the monthly fuel production drops to 16,200 (18,000*0.9). Hang on to that number. We’ll need it later.
Between Dec 41 and Aug 42, C/M/K produces 32,400 fuel per month and uses 42,600 fuel per month, which is a shortage of 10,200 fuel per month (same as the at start numbers). Life is good….. almost. We need to subtract 10,200 fuel for each of those months from the starting balance of fuel to see what’s left.
10,200*21 = 214,200 fuel consumed from the starting balance:
971,700 – 214,200 = 757,500 fuel remaining in the balance. Sounds good, right? Well, let’s see.
Starting in Sep 42, the oil glut is gone and the monthly fuel need is still 42,600. Now, the fuel produced per month drops to 16,200 (see, I told you we’d need that number again) so the monthly fuel shortage rises to 26,400 (42,600 – 16,200).
The remaining fuel will last 28 months (757,500/26,400). This takes us to Dec 44. At that point, the fuel is gone and the HI production in C/M/K should already have imploded. Remember, the HI gets wonky when fuel shortages begin to appear, but I’m not sure what the game engine considers a fuel shortage.
But, it’s actually worse than that. I didn’t factor in any fuel consumption from shipping. That will happen and I can’t give you a figure for that, which is unfortunate.
Conclusion:
Removing fuel and/or oil will hasten the collapse of the industry in the C/M/K region. At full production, this region produces 1420 HI per day, or 42,600 HI per month. That’s the equivalent of 1183 fighters per month. That’s a significant amount of HI. That is 10% of the total Japanese HI production at the start of the war.
Recommendation:
I recommend that the starting fuel and oil in the C/M/K region not be removed. In addition, I recommend that a close eye be kept on the surplus monthly the following be done to ensure the continued supply of HI:
Jun 42: Begin shipping 20k oil per month to this region.
Jan 44: Begin shipping 24k fuel per month to this region.
If this can be done through Dec 44, there will be sufficient oil and fuel in the C/M/K region to support the HI there through Sep 45. The refinery at Pt. Arthur will have sufficient oil to produce fuel through Mar 45. Add to that the 288k fuel shipped here in 1944 (24k * 12 months) and you will ensure HI production of the C/M/K HI factories through Sep 45, most likely until the end of the war.
Where should this fuel and oil come from? Good question! I recommend it come from Miri/Brunei. Combined, they produce 51k oil and 40k fuel per month. (That’s assuming you repair all of the oil fields and none of the refineries beyond 150.) I ship this stuff to Cam Ranh Bay and from there to the Home Islands. Once the Std- series xAKs begin to convert to TKs (Jun 42), just allocate some of them to ship directly from Cam Ranh Bay to Shanghai (or Hong Kong if you’re comfortable with the overland movement thing) and you should be good to go. The rest can still go to the Home Islands.
Also, keep in mind the 79k supply produced monthly in C/M/K. If the industry collapses, then you have to ship that into C/M/K in addition to whatever you’re currently shipping in order to keep the army afloat!
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RE: Once Again into the Breech - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 
). Really helpful for CS Convoys to hug the coast and stay in shallow waters. I have to give those SC and PB a chance to hit something with the Type 92 DCs. 
I did that at lunch.
RE: Once Again into the Breech - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 
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