Mike Solli
Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
Status: offline
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24 Dec 42
Sub War
Nothing new going on. The US & Dutch subs are still hanging around off Davao. The Dutch O20 sank a Kiso PB trying to DC her. The Japanese retaliation did nothing. At least they’re using torpedoes.
A sub has been sitting in the deep water hex 1 hex NW of Pescadores for a long time. I have an ASW TF sitting in the hex and an ASW FP unit in Pescadores vectored into just that hex. No luck so far. My Singapore convoys were going through that hex, but now I have them going through the Singapore hex and avoiding the sub.
Finally, there is 1 (or more) US sub south of Kobe. We attack each other daily with no luck from either side. This is only going to get worse very soon.
5 Fleet
The PB arrived at Adak and dumped half its supply today. It’ll finish offloading tomorrow and another will arrive. There are 4 more each about a day behind the other. I’ll continue this until supply is up. So far so good. One of the Naval Guard units is at full strength and the other is at 36% strength. Most of it was in Dutch Harbor when that base was taken by Ted. It’s slowly rebuilding. Hopefully, that will speed up with the extra supply on hand.
4 Fleet
Building forts.
SE Fleet
Interesting events today. A US convoy of DD Gwin and an xAKL appeared at Milne Bay today, presumably offloading supply. Two attacks, each of 12 Betties, flew in unescorted. They both were spotted by 7x P-40Ks and evaded them. Twenty-four torpedoes launched and all missed. One Betty went down to flak. Tomorrow, I’m sending an Oscar IIa sentai on a LRCAP mission over Milne Bay. I’d love to ambush the fighters and get another shot at the convoy with my Betties. I can’t believe they missed ships docked in port. Sheesh.
Five Helens hit Pt. Moresby in a night attack destroying a B-17 and P-40 on the ground and damaging a dozen more aircraft. Not bad for only 5 planes.
SRA
Nothing exciting to report.
Burma
I had grounded all my bombers to rest and get more pilots so no bombing happened today. I hoped to kill off some more Hurricanes over Akyab, but none flew. Too bad.
Tongoo’s airfield reached its goal of level 7.
China
My tank regiment hit the Chinese base force in its ninth attack today! And that darn base force is still alive. It’s now running north back toward where it started. Today’s losses were 18(5) Chinese. So far, there have been no Japanese losses. Amazing.
I hit Changteh again. I just can’t get >1:1 odds unfortunately. My infantry is worn out and needs some rest. Losses were 1549(8) Japanese to 1487(79) Chinese. They’re probably pretty worn out as well.
Other Stuff
Reinforcement: xAK Chinkai Maru – Std-D – converting to a TK. You may be curious why I’m building such a small TK. There are several places where I’m still using xAK(L)s to haul fuel (Palembang and Medan come to mind). I’d much rather use small TKs.
In another thread, I mentioned discussing late war commodity needs and goals. Well, I did some preliminary calculations. Here it is, in a nutshell:
My assumptions:
-The Home Islands will be cut off from SRA oil/fuel on 30 Jun 44. Every day beyond that is a bonus.
-Once the SRA SLOC is cut, I will still be able to move stuff between China/Manchuoko/Korea and the Home Islands.
-Once the SRA SLOC is cut, I will still be able to move stuff among the Home Islands.
Ok, my concern is with Honshu. The other islands have a bit of HI/LI, but it is minor and, with the exception of small amounts of fuel, self-sufficient.
If the SRA is cut off from the Home Islands on 30 Jun 44, I will need the following stockpiled in Honshu in order to keep the economy going:
Oil: 2,500,000
Fuel: 3,000,000
Supply: 1,800,000
Last night I was able to count up my fuel and Oil in Honshu (didn’t get to supply):
Oil: 2,187,890
Fuel: 2,159,951
It looks like I’m doing ok with oil and marginally ok with fuel. We’ll see what happens when the US torpedoes become good.
Here’s the short version of how I came up with these numbers.
Oil and fuel were relatively easy. I know what HI I have in the Honshu (5760) so I can calculate what is available in the Home Islands and C/M/K. Simple math shows what is needed.
Supply was more complex. Honshu will provide only 18,925 supply per day. That’s about 10k less than what I produce now. That’s a shortage of 300k supply a month. But, much of that supply is used outside the Home Islands. I’m going to keep track of what I ship out to see exactly what goes out, but I’m confident it’s >150k, possibly as much as 200k. So, 100k per month is where I got the 1,800,000 needed. More would be good. I really wish I had time to count the current supply I have in Honshu. I’ll do that today.
The next step is to figure out how much HI I need in the pool. Today, I have 974,900 in the pool. A rough estimate is 3.6 million by 30 Jun 44. If I continue at a pace of 100k a month I’ll make it. I need to dig further though. (Keep in mind that this is in addition to what is produced in Honshu. Also note that all the isolated places that have HI factories will continue to produce HI as long as they have the raw materials available.) Here are the preliminary numbers:
Late war monthly requirements:
Planes*: 2000 engines & airframes: 2000*(18+18) = 72,000 HI/month
Armaments: 500 factories on = 500*6*30 = 90,000 HI/month
Vehicles: 120 factories on = 120*6*30 = 21,600 HI/month
*2000 engines: 1E = 1 engine = 36 HI for 1 plane, 2E = 2 engines = 72 HI, 4E = 4 engines = 144 HI. I get the 2000 engine figure based on my planned plane builds late war. The count is actually ~1600 engines a month, so I’m adding 25%, just in case.
That’s 183,600 HI per month in just these needs. I haven’t gone farther yet. I’ll get there.
Now, I’ve been looking at different ways to stockpile oil, fuel and supply (and possibly resources). Why, you ask? It’s easier for me to track stuff if it stays in one place. I see 2 ways to do this:
-Create stockpile bases: Set a base to stock pile whatever you want to prevent from moving and ship stuff there. That way it’ll stay and not be used. An alternative to this is to create several of these bases. That way, you can release the stock from a base on a periodic basis as needed. Have each base have, say, 3 months of stocks. I’m not sure this is necessary, but it can prevent stuff like fuel and supply from “vanishing”. I don’t know. I need to think about it some more.
-The second alternative is to store the stuff in ships disbanded in bases out of the way. Same concept but it gets released into the system by putting the ship in a TF and unloading it. It’s a way to use extra shipping (if there is any at that point).
This is just some more of what goes through my head at work. Yeah, I’m a nut case.
Looking back at this, if I can do it, it appears that I can keep the economy going.
Lastly, I set up Java to be self-sufficient, kind of. I’m building up resources there so even if it is isolated, the HI can function there for a long time at 100% and then at some % <100% if totally isolated. That’s more HI for us even though it’s about as far from the Home Islands as you can get.
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RE: Once Again into the Breech - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 
). When I say the number, it seems high, however when I think about what I'm doing (30-size R&D factories, low production [only 75 A6M2 until the A6M5 came online!], etc.) it seems like I may actually be doing less than some other folks here.
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