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RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 4:36:07 AM   
witpqs


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RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 4:36:27 AM   
witpqs


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RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 4:36:52 AM   
witpqs


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RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 4:37:22 AM   
witpqs


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Status: offline 		Overview. You can see the courses for the British and American carriers to meet in two days.




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RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 4:46:24 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		It is looking very nice and I have been learning a lot.

It looks like you are going to clear out the Southern Resource Area fairly soon.

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Post #: 4145
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 5:15:37 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

It is looking very nice and I have been learning a lot.

It looks like you are going to clear out the Southern Resource Area fairly soon.

Yes. Palembang will see a full on attack from both sides in just a few days. Singapore I think will be clear by the new year - oddly what I predicted back in something like August '44. And even Cocos Islands won't be too far behind. Just waiting for the land troops to be ready. Have to check every dot base for ghost ships, though!

Philippines will take a long time as only minor forces will be diverted there. The major forces are moving on Japan!

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Post #: 4146
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 2:22:42 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		For the undefended dot bases, why not just land a few troops from an APD and/or a SST? That should take care of the problem. You probably won't lose any squads, just get some squads damaged due to lack of preparedness. Then have LBA and/or a cruiser TF standing by.

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Post #: 4147
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/18/2016 2:59:59 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

For the undefended dot bases, why not just land a few troops from an APD and/or a SST? That should take care of the problem. You probably won't lose any squads, just get some squads damaged due to lack of preparedness. Then have LBA and/or a cruiser TF standing by.

The Japanese have to take them early in the game because the Allies eventually will coma back and might use them as levers. But the Japanese are not going to come back at this point, so I don't want to expend the effort. If and where I have to I will, but there are already tons of things to do each turn.

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Post #: 4148
1944 December 18 - 4/18/2016 11:20:50 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
Status: offline 		1944 December 18

The Empire captured:


The Allies captured:
Allied forces CAPTURE Roxas !!!

There were Imperial amphibious or airborne operations at:


There were Allied amphibious or airborne operations at:


Imperial Naval Bombardments


Allied Naval Bombardments:
Allied Ships Bombarding Amami Oshima
Allied Ships Bombarding Amami Oshima
Allied Ships Bombarding Kume-jima
Allied Ships Bombarding Amami Oshima
Allied Ships Bombarding Kume-jima
Allied Ships Bombarding enemy troops at Nago
Allied Ships Bombarding Kume-jima
Allied Ships Bombarding enemy troops at Nago
Allied Ships Bombarding Kume-jima
Allied Ships Bombarding Kume-jima
Allied Ships Bombarding Amami Oshima


Our subs did it again!

Still maneuvering throughout China. Most plans are the same as mentioned previously, but there is one addition. I have been preparing and rearranging forces so that Kanhsien can be assaulted from the air before Kukong is first attacked. That will force the retreat path from Kukong to be toward Hengyang instead of toward Kanhsien. We have three para capable Bde for the job, one of them about half-strength. The medium bombers are being moved around so that all will be able to hit the target on D-Day. It's clear terrain with about 2,800 troops, 33 guns, and 83 AFV in 1 unit and has been under recon for some time now. The Lushai Bde, now at Samah and pending sea lift, will fly out of Kwangchowan with the 111th LRP Bde, while the 23rd LRP Bde will fly from Wuchow. The whole affair is still a few days off.

Our troops at Singapore are doing well, only the infantry need more recovery time. AV is 3,677. Tomorrow a division and a Bde will arrive at Palembang from the NW, without crossing river defenses. The forces at Praboemoelih will begin moving tomorrow. The day they are to cross the river, the infantry already there will attack in support.

Roxas is liberated.
quote:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Roxas (79,83)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5683 troops, 42 guns, 28 vehicles, Assault Value = 198

Defending force 5670 troops, 51 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 100

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Allied adjusted assault: 144

Japanese adjusted defense: 10

Allied assault odds: 14 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Roxas !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
444 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (14 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 34 (34 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
119 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
Torres Strait Battalion
14th NZ Brigade

Defending units:
2nd Amphibious Brigade
54th Construction Battalion
6th Air Division
1st Sasebo SNLF Coy
108th JAAF AF Bn


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The troops rest tomorrow.

More progress at Nago.
quote:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Nago (95,65)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 42765 troops, 855 guns, 1272 vehicles, Assault Value = 1936

Defending force 13828 troops, 82 guns, 27 vehicles, Assault Value = 25

Allied adjusted assault: 821

Japanese adjusted defense: 13

Allied assault odds: 63 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2659 casualties reported
Squads: 126 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 80 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (7 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
172 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
1st USMC Tank Battalion
193rd Tank Battalion
25th Infantry Division
5th Marine Division
194th Tank Battalion
40th Infantry Division
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
77th Infantry Division
716th Tank Battalion
766th Tank Battalion
111th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
710th Tank Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
40th US Naval Construction Battalion
4th Pioneer Battalion
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
39th US Naval Construction Battalion
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
30th USN Naval Construction Regiment
11th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
26th USN Naval Construction Regiment
8th AmphTrac Engineer Battalion
868th Aviation Engineer Battalion
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
16th USN Naval Construction Regiment
31st USN Naval Construction Regiment

Defending units:
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
45th Ind.Mixed Brigade
72nd Air Flotilla
31st Army
13th Base Force



13th Base Force Wiped Out at Nago by attrition!!!
Japanese Unit(s) surrounded at Nago
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Recon shows 4 units remaining at Nago so I am not sure what to make of the "Unit(s) surrounded" message. Two divisions will be pulled off the beach now that the engineers are off the ships. Current stacking is >90,000 on a limit of 35,000.

The Kume-Jima invasion lands tomorrow. An LST convoy is loading up additional supply to land ASAP as the combat convoys, while having adequate supply, are not large enough to carry ludicrous loads of supply. The 50th Ind.Mixed Brigade seems to be the only defender in residence.

The Takao invasion force should be three hexes from Takao tomorrow, and land the day after. Only the British fleet is spotted. The USN carriers remain unseen by the Imperials and will take up station one hex ahead of the invasion force.

China.




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Post #: 4149
RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/18/2016 11:21:18 PM   
witpqs


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RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/18/2016 11:21:40 PM   
witpqs


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RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/18/2016 11:22:02 PM   
witpqs


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RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/18/2016 11:22:46 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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Post #: 4153
RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/19/2016 12:07:01 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		At Nago, it is probably because you have control of all of the bases on the island and there is no retreat possible. I have seen it when there is more than one unit at a contested location.

It is looking very nice for you.

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Post #: 4154
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 12:12:58 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
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Status: offline 		What do you think is left of the Japanese navy.

Everything seems to be going your way. Sad, but true.

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Post #: 4155
RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/19/2016 12:23:23 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

At Nago, it is probably because you have control of all of the bases on the island and there is no retreat possible. I have seen it when there is more than one unit at a contested location.

It is looking very nice for you.

Yes, that is basically what happens. You have to be patient and wear them down with well-rested units. People used to shock attack but that just results in more friendly casualties. Using units that get high disruption or fatigue is also counter productive.

Meanwhile, I will draw down the combat forces and get the base operating. The damage is all repaired already and construction started on expanding the airfield. I still have to get air support in there. Not sure if I allocated it already - need to look around next turn. All of the fighters and other LBA will eventually move from Naha to Nago, and Naha will be used for B-29 groups.

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Post #: 4156
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 12:28:41 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What do you think is left of the Japanese navy.

Everything seems to be going your way. Sad, but true.

Mostly new construction and ships that were repairing or guarding points north of Cam Ranh Bay when that hammer fell. Everything else got trapped, none broke blockade that I ever saw. Very little is left at Singapore and Cocos Islands.

In hindsight the key was the Pegu invasion, which both drew the IJN down there and got them into battles which left them totally unready to take on the USN when it ventured into the South China Sea. All hail the RN cruisers!

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Post #: 4157
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 12:29:29 AM   
witpqs


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Status: offline 		Everything? No. I think the Home Islands will be a bear to crack. We'll just have to see.

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Post #: 4158
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 12:59:19 AM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Everything? No. I think the Home Islands will be a bear to crack. We'll just have to see.


Do you think you have to crack the home islands to achieve 2:1? It seems you have amassed quite a few VP's including a pending Singapore ..
The Plains of China offers a lot of VP's too ...

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Post #: 4159
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 1:33:27 AM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Everything? No. I think the Home Islands will be a bear to crack. We'll just have to see.


Do you think you have to crack the home islands to achieve 2:1? It seems you have amassed quite a few VP's including a pending Singapore ..
The Plains of China offers a lot of VP's too ...




That is my thought, too. Although I think getting the central Chinese plains might be tough.

I had my eye on another potential target.

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Post #: 4160
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 3:03:51 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Playing this game at all isn't about 'have to'.

Seriously, maybe I can make 2 to 1, I'm not sure. I assume (without doing any calculations) that I would need to harvest more strategic bombing points. DAW HQ has the Home Islands under a swarm of fighters. From here on out, Hokkaido might be the 'easiest' operation remaining after the current crop underway.

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Post #: 4161
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 5:49:31 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		How is the Japanese bomber force in the Home Islands? How about shore bombarding with BBs and use carrier task forces for CAP and hitting airfields? Maybe after the air and sea units in the Southern Resource Area are freed up?

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― Julia Child


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Post #: 4162
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 6:02:52 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

How is the Japanese bomber force in the Home Islands? How about shore bombarding with BBs and use carrier task forces for CAP and hitting airfields? Maybe after the air and sea units in the Southern Resource Area are freed up?

The sea units there are largely freed up, but I need to keep the battleships and carriers intact for supporting invasions. Maybe eventually, but not anytime soon.

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Post #: 4163
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 8:09:05 AM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
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Status: offline 		I have to think that turning armor loose in the China plains is a better Expected Value than entangling with units on the home islands.
The AAR that currently has a home island invasion going is demonstrating how tedious it can be slogging it out in a war of attrition.

Korea might hold some hope given a need to defend a lot of locations including the home islands ...

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Post #: 4164
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 10:24:23 AM   
Drakanel

 

Posts: 253
Joined: 4/6/2015
Status: offline 		Wow, such a nice pace of updates. I kind of hope you and your opponent can keep it up!

Regarding the rest.... well it's of course 100% up to you but I still want to say my opinion.

If I were you, I'd go for the home islands. It's not a matter of victory points, but a matter of entertaining. It is likely possible to reach 2:1 with china and the rest but... would that be as satisfying? Personally, I think not. I would definitely want to invade japan, not for the points but for myself.

Of course this is just my 2 cents

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Post #: 4165
RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/19/2016 3:18:46 PM   
Rafid

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Recon shows 4 units remaining at Nago so I am not sure what to make of the "Unit(s) surrounded" message. Two divisions will be pulled off the beach now that the engineers are off the ships.

I also think this happens when units cannot retreat anymore. They then take additional damage (disabled and destroyed devices) not mentioned in the combat report. Unfortunately it also the message that is connected to the VP bug I mentioned some time ago. See michaelm's post below.

quote:

ORIGINAL: michaelm
Normal sequence is for units to become 'surrounded' and lose some devices for VPs. At some point, the units will start to fall to 'attrition'.
Often if the unit is already at the threshold, they jump straight to the 'attrition' part.

The bug I have found is that when the unit is 'surrounded', it loses some devices (and you get the VPs), BUT then is removed from the map

or in the unofficial beta notes

quote:

ORIGINAL: michaelm
26/09/2015:
Fix case where surrounded units disappearing without VPs
Fix surrounded units having disabled devices doubled each time checked (and then above bug kicked in)

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Post #: 4166
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 3:47:40 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I have to think that turning armor loose in the China plains is a better Expected Value than entangling with units on the home islands.
The AAR that currently has a home island invasion going is demonstrating how tedious it can be slogging it out in a war of attrition.

Korea might hold some hope given a need to defend a lot of locations including the home islands ...

Putting various posts and answers together... The forces now in China will either largely or completely stay there for the foreseeable future. There is plenty of armor in the spearhead, that spearhead being currently engaged at Canton-Hong Kong, and planned to advance (up the corridor shown on a map a few days ago) to the plains. Hokkaido is going to be taken in entirety. The islands between Okinawa and Kyushu, and the islands north of them, and possibly as far as the islands between Korea and the Home Islands are all under consideration for the purposes of supporting further operations and completely cutting off imports to the Home Islands.

I am not going to take the major forces now operating in the DEI and Malaya and put them in China where they would be stuck until the end of the game. The islands that complete isolation of Japan, or Korea which achieves the same thing, are more effective because they cut off all imports except Heavy Industry and factories. And those can be shut down from the air, especially with so much Imperial air defense strength tied to defending industry in the Home Islands.

I know that an HI invasion would be very tough. I am not even close to deciding exactly where, when, or how. But, for me in this contest, I am not trying to accumulate points as quickly as possible to win on points. It's about the journey. I do pay attention to points as a guide for how things are going - you don't exactly gain points for losing a major invasion fleet loaded with troops, and so on!

Korea has the advantages of cutting off Japan (takes the place of the islands west of Japan), has industry to stifle, could serve as a base for further invasions, provides bases for strategic bombing, and could serve as a base to trigger Soviet Activation. But Lowpe advises that Korea is likely to be heavily defended, and the amount of forces that would have to be destroyed or lured out of Manchuria to trigger Soviet Activation is on the order of (my interpretation) 8 to 12 divisions. A tough nut that will take a long time.

What about going into China instead with those forces? It is probably less strongly (or densely) held than Korea, which is good. But all the other items are negative compared to Korea. And due to the larger size of the areas of China that would be involved (compared to the size of Korea), it would take just as long to deal with because even though 'fighting' would be briefer 'moving around' would be a good deal longer.

So, for the additional forces not yet committed (DEI, etc), China is out. Korea is possible. The islands near Japan and Korea are possible. Japan is definite because I want to as part of the fun. We've been playing this PBM for about 4 1/2 years, guys!

All discussion welcome, including telling me I'm nuts.

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Post #: 4167
RE: 1944 December 17 - 4/19/2016 3:48:56 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Drakanel

Wow, such a nice pace of updates. I kind of hope you and your opponent can keep it up!

Regarding the rest.... well it's of course 100% up to you but I still want to say my opinion.

If I were you, I'd go for the home islands. It's not a matter of victory points, but a matter of entertaining. It is likely possible to reach 2:1 with china and the rest but... would that be as satisfying? Personally, I think not. I would definitely want to invade japan, not for the points but for myself.

Of course this is just my 2 cents

Just finished typing my response to Crackaces' post so I didn't see this until now.

Well put!

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Post #: 4168
RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/19/2016 3:54:48 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Rafid

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Recon shows 4 units remaining at Nago so I am not sure what to make of the "Unit(s) surrounded" message. Two divisions will be pulled off the beach now that the engineers are off the ships.

I also think this happens when units cannot retreat anymore. They then take additional damage (disabled and destroyed devices) not mentioned in the combat report. Unfortunately it also the message that is connected to the VP bug I mentioned some time ago. See michaelm's post below.

quote:

ORIGINAL: michaelm
Normal sequence is for units to become 'surrounded' and lose some devices for VPs. At some point, the units will start to fall to 'attrition'.
Often if the unit is already at the threshold, they jump straight to the 'attrition' part.

The bug I have found is that when the unit is 'surrounded', it loses some devices (and you get the VPs), BUT then is removed from the map

or in the unofficial beta notes

quote:

ORIGINAL: michaelm
26/09/2015:
Fix case where surrounded units disappearing without VPs
Fix surrounded units having disabled devices doubled each time checked (and then above bug kicked in)


Thanks! We upgraded to the newest Beta a couple of weeks ago, so we are no longer experiencing that VP bug.

As far as the damage outside of the combat report goes, I don't think it's the result of no retreat path. I think it also happens to units with a retreat path, it's just that they get retreated by a losing combat and so they avoid continually getting hit by other LCUs. With no retreat path they have to stay in the hex (unless they are ordered to move, which takes time) and get attacked maybe every turn.

It was easy to see in the early game as Allies with all the units that were eventually destroyed in the PI and DEI. It's the lack of supply, and that is made worse with each attack the unit suffers (independent of the damage from the attack).

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Post #: 4169
RE: 1944 December 18 - 4/19/2016 4:42:04 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Ok, nice answers.

I can remember chiding Jocke for not invading Honshu against Obvert. He had fought that far, suffered so much, how could you not want to do the ultimate Allied Fan Boy thrill?






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Post #: 4170
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