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RE: 1943 January 31 - 1/1/2013 9:20:06 PM

witpqs

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From: Argleton
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This post is a test to see if embedding the .txt attachment will display it correctly.

Nope - didn't work.

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Post #: 781

RE: 1943 January 31 - 1/1/2013 9:33:04 PM

BBfanboy

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Thanks for the update. I had forgotten about that battle back in November.
OK, then! I have to guess that he overestimated how much two CVEs could achieve against allied AA in 1943.
Rotsa Ruck teaching him a tough lesson!

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Post #: 782

RE: 1943 January 31 - 1/3/2013 3:25:00 AM

princep01

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It is rather difficult to see what Admiral Wa was intent on doing with that force in the Bay of Bengal. As a pure raider force, the CVEs could have taken a goodly toll on merchant shipping plying the area, but, as was pointed out, to what end? True, destruction of a troop convoy would have been rewarding, but the chances of catching one there is fairly slim. Further, it really could not defend itself had a few British CVs been available in the area and was at hazard if caught by a substantial cruiser force. So, it is hard to see what the unscrutable one was up to given the picture we could see.

However, as a mind game, I guess it has some value to send such raiding forces deep into Indian country. Admiral Wa did it in the Pacific with the CVLs that came to a grissly end and we have seen other raiders pop up even as far off as the West Coast. So, based on past events in this game, it seems very much in character. In the end, I suspect that was all it was....a raiding force intent on doing more psychological than physical damage.

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Post #: 783

RE: 1943 January 31 - 1/3/2013 4:30:54 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

It is rather difficult to see what Admiral Wa was intent on doing with that force in the Bay of Bengal.� As a pure raider force, the CVEs could have taken a goodly toll on merchant shipping plying the area, but, as was pointed out, to what end?� True, destruction of a troop convoy would have been rewarding, but the chances of catching one there is fairly slim.� Further, it really could not defend itself had a few British CVs been available in the area and was�at hazard�if caught by a substantial cruiser force.� So, it is hard to see what the unscrutable one was up to given the picture we could see.

However, as a mind game, I guess it has some value to send such raiding forces deep into Indian country.� Admiral Wa did it in the Pacific with the CVLs that came to a grissly end and we have seen other raiders pop up even as far off as the West Coast.� So, based on past�events in this game, it seems very much in character.� In the end, I suspect that was all it was....a raiding force intent on doing more psychological than physical damage.�

Right! The psychological damage from seeing all those fine Vals shot down, leaving any surviving pilots with a 1600 mile swim is awful ..... Oh wait! They're Japanese, aren't they?

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Post #: 784

RE: 1943 January 31 - 1/3/2013 11:34:48 AM

JocMeister

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Right! The psychological damage from seeing all those fine Vals shot down, leaving any surviving pilots with a 1600 mile swim is awful ..... Oh wait! They're Japanese, aren't they?

Now that is just evil!

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Post #: 785

1943 February 01 - 1/3/2013 6:56:00 PM

witpqs

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1943 February 01

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:
Arorae

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:
Arorae

Little action in China, one ground bombardment and the usual aerial beatings.

In the Burma theater our diversionary advance both continues and has drawn fire!

quote:

Morning Air attack on 22nd (East African) Brigade, at 59,41 , near Imphal

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-49-Ia Helen x 17

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-Ia Helen: 2 damaged

No Allied losses

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-49-Ia Helen bombing from 9000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/75th FS with P-40K Warhawk (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 12000
Raid is overhead

Also attacking 268th Motorised Brigade ...
Also attacking 22nd (East African) Brigade ...

That could have been merely a recon attack.

Arorae was captured without drama, and no Imperial reaction has been seen by search. The 2 x AVD will move in tonight. A squadron of PBY are moving and will begin search operations the day after.

The aerial assault on Tulagi went badly, owing mostly to the weather scrubbing almost all squadrons. 5 x B-17D were lost, but only 1 crew is MIA.

quote:

Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 14

Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B-17D Fortress bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
582 Ku S-1 with A6M2 Zero (2 airborne, 6 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 11 minutes
5th Sentai/A with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (2 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 22000 , scrambling fighters between 11000 and 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes
5th Sentai/B with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (1 airborne, 2 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 17000 , scrambling fighters to 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes
5th Sentai/C with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (1 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters to 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 7 minutes

The softening up of the Imperial troops across the river continues on our part. The USN carrier and surface TFs are heading back to Suva and Pago Pago to replenish. After that, the invasion forces for the Gilberts will load up. Based on sightings of our subs, there is the possibility of Imperials Carrier(s) north or northeast of Rabaul. Our ASW groups pounded one IJN sub and hit another near Christmas Island. What is presumed to be the former looks to be heading home.

The Imperial carriers in the Indian Ocean have well and truly vanished. We shall keep looking. Force Z will head to Colombo to refuel and stand by in case a quick intercept run is required. I don't want all forces low on fuel at the same time. Weather is a major factor, there having been raid and more predicted. Here is the escape route coverage.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 786

RE: 1943 February 01 - 1/3/2013 8:12:17 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

[The Imperial carriers in the Indian Ocean have well and truly vanished. We shall keep looking. Force Z will head to Colombo to refuel and stand by in case a quick intercept run is required. I don't want all forces low on fuel at the same time. Weather is a major factor, there having been raid and more predicted. Here is the escape route coverage.

You are playing in clouds of insect poison? No wonder they call it Advanced Weather Effects! Now if you could just get that in the malarial zones ...

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Post #: 787

RE: 1943 February 01 - 1/3/2013 8:18:32 PM

witpqs

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I suppose there were air raids!

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Post #: 788

1943 February 02 - 1/4/2013 1:46:03 AM

witpqs

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1943 February 02

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

A little action in China. The result of the first attack, near Patung, was good news as this point is important to hold for as long as possible. The unit that was just retreated way up north in the 'Chinese Outback' is now on the road whereas its pursuers are not. They will run as fast as they can to get south and cut the supply route!

quote:

Ground combat at 80,47 (near Patung)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 32538 troops, 265 guns, 34 vehicles, Assault Value = 930

Defending force 35886 troops, 202 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 656

Japanese adjusted assault: 424

Allied adjusted defense: 1327

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1699 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 160 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled

Allied ground losses:
946 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 90 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Assaulting units:
15th/C Division
19th Ind.Mixed Brigade
17th/B Division
110th Division
13th/C Division
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
2nd Chinese Corps
71st Chinese Corps
18th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
13th Group Army

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 84,27 (near Kiuchuan)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 672 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 27

Defending force 481 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 9

Japanese adjusted assault: 24

Allied adjusted defense: 7

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Allied ground losses:
128 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units retreated 1

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Ching An Tui Brigade

Defending units:
34th Separate Brigade

Also, two IJA units have made the plain 92mi east of Chungking. They are moving east to attack the Chinese troops in the rough terrain, holding against a lone IJA unit. Reinforcement is dispatched from Chunking, and the Chinese Air Force will begin making attacks from Chengtu. Chiang Kai-Shek has been sacked in favor of a commander whom it is hoped will rally troops more quickly.

No sign of Imperial carriers in the IO.

Imperial bombers and fighters in multiple bombing runs and sweeps crossed the Indian frontier to hit our advancing troops. We lost some fighters but generally our boys held their own.

The skies over Tulagi also saw bitter struggles. No 4EB were lost today, but only a little damage done to the airfield. Several enemy taken by the P-38 sweep that arrived after all the bombers. The heavies bombers must rest, probably for two days. Another B-24D squadron has arrived on the scene, so the party will be a little bigger next time.

Recon of Tarawa shows a CV in port (I figure seaplane support is more likely), fighters-bombers-auxiliary as 32-21-23, 4 ground units of 5,820 troops and 15 guns.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 789

1943 February 03 - 1/4/2013 10:03:05 PM

witpqs

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1943 February 03

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

In China the strong, dug-in troops were routed just as easily as the already battered troops ENE of Sian. Other units are rushing to fill the gap.

quote:

Ground combat at 85,39 (near Sian)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 10425 troops, 64 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 315

Defending force 13691 troops, 58 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 388

Japanese adjusted assault: 118

Allied adjusted defense: 57

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), morale(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1219 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 89 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
5622 casualties reported
Squads: 255 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 162 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 21 (21 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 6
Units destroyed 1

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
4th Ind.Mixed Brigade
12th Indpt Infantry Regiment

Defending units:
19th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
42nd Chinese Corps
6th Group Army
23rd Chinese Corps
2nd War Area
12th Chinese Base Force

Hector still floats, but her escort is Winchester for ASW. The USN dive bombers training (already well trained) at Palmyra are detailed to 100% narrow corridor ASW duty in hopes of suppressing the shark. Hopefully, the hits that SC-751 put on target taken together with the hits made near Christmas Island will render I-3 unable to find Hector. Hector was headed to Canton Island to serve as a forward emergency repair station. Hector's crew is very green, but otherwise she might actually make it to Palmyra, which is a size 5 port. She then could be pumped out and escorted to Pearl Harbor.

quote:

Sub attack near Palmyra at 168,135

Japanese Ships
SS I-3, hits 12, heavy damage

Allied Ships
AR Hector, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
SC-751

Massive explosion on AR Hector
SS I-3 launches 2 torpedoes at AR Hector
I-3 diving deep ....
SC-751 attacking submerged sub ....
SC-751 fails to find sub, continues to search...
SC-751 attacking submerged sub ....
SC-751 fails to find sub, continues to search...
SC-751 attacking submerged sub ....
SC-751 is out of ASW ammo
SC-751 is out of ASW ammo
Escort abandons search for sub

No signs of the Imperium in the IO.

The IJA won the air war over the Burma-India border but the USA won same over the South Pacific and over Port Moresby. There are no fighters now seen at Tulagi, so they must be covering from Munda.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 790

1943 February 04 - 1/5/2013 2:59:04 AM

witpqs

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From: Argleton
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1943 February 04

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

In China two of the three IJA units in Kungchang pulled out in time to block encirclement. Our bombers just would not fly the past two days despite orders. Japan rules the skies over China. Those two Imperial units on the plain of Chungking are moving to cut supply to the troops to their east.

Hector made it to Palmyra and will commence pumping out and shoring up. Successes for two subs.

quote:

Sub attack near Etorofu at 128,56

Japanese Ships
xAKL Tsukikawa Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire

Allied Ships
SS Halibut

SS Halibut attacking on the surface
Ross, P.H. decides to submerge SS Halibut due to damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Manus at 103,118

Japanese Ships
AO Erimo, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
AO Shiretoko
AO Notoro
AO Hayamoto
E Shimushu

Allied Ships
SS Triton, hits 1

SS Triton launches 6 torpedoes at AO Erimo
Triton diving deep ....
E Shimushu attacking submerged sub ....
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search...
E Shimushu fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

A TF of IJN destroyers - possibly with a light cruiser - turned up 80nm from Ndeni. USMC fliers responded.

quote:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Ndeni at 119,142

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
TBF-1 Avenger x 9

Allied aircraft losses
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
DD Makinami
DD Samidare
DD Kiyonami

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet *
Naval Attack: 2 x 500 lb SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Ndeni at 119,142

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 2 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 14
SBD-2 Dauntless x 9

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Kiyonami, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Makinami

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
1 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ndeni at 119,142

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 4 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 14
SBD-2 Dauntless x 9

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Samidare, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb
5 x SBD-2 Dauntless releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 1000 lb SAP Bomb

Either the IJN carriers in the IO slipped out of the coverage net, they scuttled, or they have engaged their cloaking devices. The air attacks on Ndeni, Milne bay and the troops on the Burma border all went well. Horn Island has been under almost constant aerial bombardment. Tulagi airfield scouts as 33% damaged.

The fleet carriers have replenished as have their air groups. The escort carriers have replenished and so have their squadrons. Some had to be put ashore to requisition replacement aircraft from a finicky supply sergeant and will reembark tomorrow. The invasion forces for Tarawa and Abemama begin loading tonight, a process which will certainly take two days, maybe three for stragglers. We are not taking the extra time for the 40th ID to upgrade to '43 standard squads and instead will trust in gunfire and aerial support. The troops on both objectives will be put ashore with enough supply to last through major contingencies. Base forces and engineers are also embarking in separate TFs to be put ashore as soon as each objective is taken. Abemama, which is believed unoccupied, should be seized the first day with base building and base force landings commencing the second day. As far as gunfire support goes, the heavy cruisers, slow battleships, and fast battleships will all be available in addition to cruisers in company of the transports. Due back on line in 7 days, there is a slight possibility that Enterprise might attend the festivities.

The air battles over the Burma frontier turned decidedly in our favor today, with victories over sweeping Imperial fighters and the smashing of a bomber formation. A nice little haul!

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by witpqs -- 1/5/2013 3:00:13 AM >

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Post #: 791

RE: 1943 February 04 - 1/5/2013 3:02:39 AM

witpqs

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From: Argleton
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I forgot to mention - the ground losses for Tojo and Emily were at Tulagi. I love bagging long range search planes!

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Post #: 792

RE: 1943 February 04 - 1/6/2013 2:29:28 AM

princep01

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From: Texas
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Yep, I agree re the 4 engine recon planes. One goes down and that's 4 hard earned IJ aerial engines gone. Don't know why that is such a rush, but I agree it is!

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Post #: 793

RE: 1943 February 04 - 1/6/2013 2:36:11 AM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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Well for me it's the search aspect rather than the production aspect. Search is sooo important most of the time in this game. And especially those big search planes of the Empire have long range. I know that whacking a bunch of them takes a bite out of search in that area for a little while.

Probably no turn until tomorrow.

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Post #: 794

1943 February 05 - 1/6/2013 8:14:33 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

1943 February 05

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

The Chinese Air Force flew today!

quote:

Morning Air attack on 17th Ind.Mixed Brigade, at 78,45 , near Chungking

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
SB-III x 14

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
118 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x SB-III bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 100 kg GP Bomb
3 x SB-III bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 100 kg GP Bomb
3 x SB-III bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 100 kg GP Bomb
2 x SB-III bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 100 kg GP Bomb
3 x SB-III bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 41st Division ...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 11th Indpt Infantry Regiment, at 81,36 (Kungchang)

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-29A Hudson x 3

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x A-29A Hudson bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 41st Division, at 78,45 , near Chungking

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 46 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Allied aircraft
SB-III x 2

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
30 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x SB-III bombing from 5000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Perhaps an opportunity at Kungchang created by the movement of IJA forces to hold open their supply line.

quote:

Ground combat at Kungchang (81,36)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 13171 troops, 39 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 712

Defending force 3829 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 122

Assaulting units:
1st Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Base Force
6th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
11th Indpt Infantry Regiment

Our troops at Kungchang will make a deliberate attack tomorrow. In two days another unit will arrive, further over stacking the base. All troops are eating their socks anyway, so supply will not be impacted.

The Tarawa assault force has completed loading at Suva and will proceed to an area north of Savii. The assault force for Abemama and the base forces for both objectives are loading supplies at Pago Pago and will meet the Tarawa assault force at sea. The fleet carriers will linger a bit at Suva in hopes of repairing some systems damage. All of the USMC air groups are back aboard their escort carriers at Pago Pago. Enterprise is expected ready in six days. Three destroyers are on hand to escort her but more might be available by then.

Two IJN subs are seen near Ndeni and another near Arorae. There is a TF of 4 ships but otherwise unknown composition at Ocean Island heading SE. The heavy cruisers, which refueled at sea south of the Ellice Islands, will head through the area a couple of hundred nm west of Arorae. They will be in position to receive orders to intercede if a move on Arorae is evident, but will endeavor to remain far enough away from Tarawa to avoid air strikes.

No sign of the IJN in the IO. Here is the situation in central China.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 795

1943 February 06 - 1/7/2013 2:43:48 AM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

1943 February 06

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

The attack at Kungchang was a dead end even in spite of both Chinese and US Air Forces' intervention.

quote:

Ground combat at Kungchang (81,36)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 27482 troops, 62 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 711

Defending force 3830 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 123

Allied adjusted assault: 144

Japanese adjusted defense: 631

Allied assault odds: 1 to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
220 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
858 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 95 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Assaulting units:
1st Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Base Force
6th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
11th Indpt Infantry Regiment

An IJA unit has made it to the hex just west of Kweiyang, ahead of our would-be blocking unit.

It looks like one more day for the last base force TF for Tarawa to finish loading supplies. All other amphibious TFs have put to sea. Recon puts Tarawa with 4 x LCU, 6,700 troops, 88 guns, and no AFV. Here is the SigInt for Tarawa.

Date       Type Actor                                    Optional #1        Optional #2               Action                       Target Name          T-Hex  
1942-02-15 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-03-02 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-03-11 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-03-12 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-03-16 -    53rd Naval Guard Unit                    -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-03-21 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-03-24 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-06-30 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-07-01 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-07-05 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-08-03 -    13th Air Flotilla                        -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-08-04 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-08-13 -    53rd Naval Guard Unit                    -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-08-22 -    13th Air Flotilla                        -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-08-30 -    13th Air Flotilla                        -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-09-14 -    53rd Naval Guard Unit                    -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-09-17 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-09-20 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-10-10 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-10-18 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-10-22 -    13th Air Flotilla                        -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-10-27 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-11-13 -    13th Air Flotilla                        -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128 
1942-11-28 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1942-12-08 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1943-01-28 -    Radio transmissions                      -                  -                         detected at                  Tarawa               136,128 
1943-02-02 -    7th JNAF Coy                             -                  -                         is located at                Tarawa               136,128

The SigInt is also attached in case it does not display properly inside the post.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by witpqs -- 1/7/2013 2:44:42 AM >

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Post #: 796

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/7/2013 6:33:27 AM

BBfanboy

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Looks like Tarawa does not have much opposition. Hope you can get there before he gets a wiff of the amphib force.

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Post #: 797

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/7/2013 3:18:17 PM

witpqs

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That's the two-edged sword of recon - he now knows I'm reconnoitering Tarawa. I am still doing so with Abemama and Tabiteuea also, but those don't seem to go in with as much regularity as they are PBY units moonlighting after their regular shifts are over. I just got one of the big PBY 4Y or-whatever-exactly-is-the-definition units up and running. They're just waiting for a little better weather to make a couple of hops to the area. No air bases in range for them with a big enough runway to support them scouting the Gilberts and Marshalls. For now they can help get a solid look at Munda and Shortlands.

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Post #: 798

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/7/2013 11:17:20 PM

princep01

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Under current conditions, reconning Tarawa is quite natural and I am sure Admiral Wa knows it will likely be a target. If you are reconning other nearby islands, that will leave him wondering just where you are coming. But, for any IJ admiral, it is just a matter of time for the Gilberts and Tarawa is often the prime target.

What would worry me is the fact that he may actually have 6K guys there and how long he has been fortifying the place. It sure doesn't look like a pushover to me. In fact, I might be inclined to nabbed the smaller nearby islands and build some fighter bases there BEFORE landing on Tarawa. In fact, I might just by-pass the place altogether, build those fighter bases into bomber size bases and use Tarawa as a bomber training island.....and move on to the Marshall Is as soon as I could neutralize the AF on Tarawa.

Regarding your Gilberts expedition. Other than tough fighting on land, I don't see how he can mount much naval opposition, Maybe some LBA hazards though. I'm anxious to see how it goes.

In my game, I grabbed Tarawa back in June, 42 when KB was off galavanting about in the Indian Ocean. He had not occupied it heavily and it was barely even fortified, so I had an easy time of it. Just one of those lucky opportunitstic things the Allies can do early on if the IJN is off playing far away.

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Post #: 799

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/7/2013 11:22:35 PM

GreyJoy

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Tarawa can field 20,000 men, not just 6,000... Makin 15,000 if i'm not mistaken.
Tabiutea is the best target, cause you can land up to 40,000 men without any stacking problem and can built up pretty well.
While Tarawa can be fortified by the japs, i don't think a balanced japanese defence can base more than a Naval Guard unit at Tabiutea (considering that Japan needs to fortify Tarawa, Makin, Jaluit, Kwalajein, Roi-Namur, Kusiae etc. etc...)

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Post #: 800

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/8/2013 4:11:17 AM

witpqs

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Based on SigInt, these are 3 of the 4 units there:

53rd Naval Guard Unit
13th Air Flotilla
7th JNAF Coy

What the 4th unit is, I don't know but it can't be very big or I would see the troop count. Or AFV count for an armored unit. My plan is to put Tawara air base out of business with Air strikes and shore bombardment. LBA opposition then will have to come from a fair distance, and I'm confident that the fleet can handle that.

Landings will take place at Tarawa and Abemama simultaneously.

As Abemama is not garrisoned, I expect the engineers will land on the second day. The first priority there will be getting the air base to size 2 or 3 before even starting on the port.

Naval air opposition is more of a concern. Akagi was not involved in the recent actions and might still be off line. Kaga is certainly off line. Hiyo was sunk, a conclusion strengthened by ground losses reported. Shokaku was hit but most likely quite modestly damaged. That leaves 4 untouched carriers, Shokaku, and possibly Akagi. The two CVE that seem to have escaped the Indian Ocean are probably too far away to arrive in time.

The Imperial naval air groups have had time to reequip and draw replacement pilots. Combined with LBA, naval air could cause problems. Still, it's a less favorable spot for such intervention compared to the Solomons, Truk, or the Marianas. On the other hand, Hellcats arrive in less than two months, with enough production to equip all the USN fleet carriers within two months time.

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Post #: 801

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/8/2013 10:01:52 AM

GreyJoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Based on SigInt, these are 3 of the 4 units there:

53rd Naval Guard Unit
13th Air Flotilla
7th JNAF Coy

What the 4th unit is, I don't know but it can't be very big or I would see the troop count. Or AFV count for an armored unit. My plan is to put Tawara air base out of business with Air strikes and shore bombardment. LBA opposition then will have to come from a fair distance, and I'm confident that the fleet can handle that.

Landings will take place at Tarawa and Abemama simultaneously.

As Abemama is not garrisoned, I expect the engineers will land on the second day. The first priority there will be getting the air base to size 2 or 3 before even starting on the port.

Naval air opposition is more of a concern. Akagi was not involved in the recent actions and might still be off line. Kaga is certainly off line. Hiyo was sunk, a conclusion strengthened by ground losses reported. Shokaku was hit but most likely quite modestly damaged. That leaves 4 untouched carriers, Shokaku, and possibly Akagi. The two CVE that seem to have escaped the Indian Ocean are probably too far away to arrive in time.

The Imperial naval air groups have had time to reequip and draw replacement pilots. Combined with LBA, naval air could cause problems. Still, it's a less favorable spot for such intervention compared to the Solomons, Truk, or the Marianas. On the other hand, Hellcats arrive in less than two months, with enough production to equip all the USN fleet carriers within two months time.

A IJAF coy doesn't even have a radar. You're gonna have some easy time closing that base with your LBA imho. Not a single AA piece embedded on those LCUs... doesn't seem like the best possible defence for an important base like Tarawa.
What about Makin? Is it built?

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Post #: 802

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/8/2013 10:28:31 AM

obvert

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The JNAF Coy does have radar! The navy version has it, as I found out trying to airlift them and not being able to get this portion out. Still, fields can be closed and then a few ground raids will take out this small unit.

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Post #: 803

RE: 1943 February 06 - 1/8/2013 12:32:30 PM

witpqs

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Thanks for the info, guys!

Makin is not built at all. I have a Kiwi para unit prepping. If it's garrisoned then the place will be target practice instead.

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Post #: 804

1943 February 07 - 1/9/2013 12:12:09 AM

witpqs

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1943 February 07

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

No significant combats to report. The beatings from the air in China. Today's raids on Tulagi were particularly ineffective. Maneuvers in China are more significant, as IJA forces push more at the edges of the plain east of Chungking. To the north, a strengthened Chinese army at Kungchang will attack tomorrow.

The fleet for the Gilberts operation will assemble south of Gardner Island.

Here is a look at China.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 805

RE: 1943 February 07 - 1/9/2013 2:10:09 AM

princep01

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China is looking increasingly grim, but I wonder how Wa is supplying those troops in the Chungking plain? Any thoughts on that, Admiral witpqs? If they are out of supply, perhaps they are vulnernable to counterattack. Regardlessly, the situation in China is not good...it seldom is against competent IJA play.

Those three units on Tarawa don't look so tough and if the 4th unit is small (a fragment, maybe?) maybe it will be a pushover after all.

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Post #: 806

RE: 1943 February 07 - 1/9/2013 2:45:54 AM

witpqs

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On the China plain, I figure either they are living off of stores or supply is being flown in. Except for sneaking in odd bomber attacks - after which he LRCAPs and shoots down some of the precious few remaining bombers - the Empire owns the skies over China. I can't effectively use fighters to stop that.

No way I can counter-attack those units. They are too strong, and my units are almost all low on supply in addition to being poor quality. I'm just buying as much time as I can.

I still have no idea about the fourth unit on Tarawa. I'm supposing an engineering unit of some kind. Whatever it is, it is small in terms of troops. Some type of CD unit or AA unit, maybe?

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Post #: 807

1943 February 08 - 1/9/2013 4:41:43 PM

witpqs

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1943 February 08

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

Victory in China! Well, victory is a relative term, right?

quote:

Ground combat at 87,41 (near Tsiaotso)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6730 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 632

Defending force 21019 troops, 128 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 685

Japanese ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
7th Ind.Mixed Brigade
6th Ind.Mixed Brigade
59th Infantry Brigade

Defending units:
34th Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
7th Group Army
8th Group Army

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kungchang (81,36)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 35119 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1060

Defending force 3715 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 112

Allied adjusted assault: 144

Japanese adjusted defense: 115

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
101 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
368 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 25 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Assaulting units:
9th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
27th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Base Force
6th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
11th Indpt Infantry Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 81,35 (near Lanchow)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 10040 troops, 91 guns, 23 vehicles, Assault Value = 295

Defending force 4398 troops, 32 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 149

Japanese adjusted assault: 189

Allied adjusted defense: 916

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
198 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Allied ground losses:
187 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
19th/A Division
19th/B Division

Defending units:
72nd Chinese Corps

DAW HQ pulled off a small ambush of B-24 over Milne Bay, but only two failed to return. It's cat and mouse there of when are sweeps versus CAP versus raids. The raids against Tulagi went much better today. The airfield is showing 64% damaged, so probably it is more so after today. The B-25 and B-26 will hit the airfield again tomorrow. The 4EB from Luganville will stand down, while the 4EB from Vanua Lava will hit the port. After that the 2EB will need a rest. The 4EB will rotate as possible.

In two days the invasion forces will have assembled south of Gardner with the fleet carriers lagging only slightly. They will then set out for an ESE approach to Tarawa. The USMC paras will drop on their southern Solomons objectives when the invasion fleet is about to draw level (N-S) with Arorae. Rabaul has been mined.

Here is the Intel screen.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 808

1943 February 09 - 1/9/2013 8:11:26 PM

witpqs

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1943 February 09

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

The second day of attacks at Kungchang was a disappointment, but we are whittling down that out of supply unit. The troops rest to recover disruption before trying again.

quote:

Ground combat at 87,41 (near Tsiaotso)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6721 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 631

Defending force 21011 troops, 128 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 685

Assaulting units:
7th Ind.Mixed Brigade
6th Ind.Mixed Brigade
59th Infantry Brigade

Defending units:
34th Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
7th Group Army
8th Group Army

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kungchang (81,36)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 34614 troops, 90 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1005

Defending force 3658 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 105

Allied adjusted assault: 113

Japanese adjusted defense: 331

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), supply(-)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
79 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
824 casualties reported
Squads: 24 destroyed, 36 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
9th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
27th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Base Force
6th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
11th Indpt Infantry Regiment

Tulagi was hit hard, and ACM Asahi Maru #2 was sunk.

quote:

Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 18 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 12
B-24D Liberator x 12

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
ACM Asahi Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Port hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 3
B-26 Marauder x 15

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x B-26 Marauder bombing from 5000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 12

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 5000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 24

No Allied losses

Port hits 2
Port supply hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Port Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

An APD TF dropped about 600 supply at Arorae. The Gilberts Invasion fleet will begin moving out now and the carriers will catch up tomorrow.

Cape Town has about run out of supply! I've been paying close attention to the fuel situation there, but just figured that supply kept on coming in. India has about 1.5 million so there is no crisis. Many of the xAK making that run will now get caught up with refitting. Maybe the next come Imperial sky raiders come calling they will sustain more damage.

Here is the dire situation in China.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 809

1943 February 10 - 1/9/2013 11:33:52 PM

witpqs

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From: Argleton
Status: offline

1943 February 10

The Empire captured:

The Allies captured:

There were Imperial amphibious operations at:

There were Allied amphibious operations at:

The Empire has made a critical breakthrough in China. See graphic at the end of the post.

quote:

Ground combat at 78,48 (near Chihkiang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36304 troops, 259 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 1172

Defending force 42575 troops, 257 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 972

Japanese adjusted assault: 695

Allied adjusted defense: 141

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1963 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 192 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 15 (1 destroyed, 14 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
11346 casualties reported
Squads: 313 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 339 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 15 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 54 (47 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Units retreated 12

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
51st Infantry Brigade
15th Tank Regiment
52nd Infantry Brigade
39th Division
37th Division

Defending units:
10th Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
53rd Chinese Corps
28th Chinese Corps
38th New Chinese Division
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
29th Group Army
7th Artillery Regiment
30th Group Army
20th Group Army
23rd Group Army
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 73,49 (near Kweiyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1140 troops, 0 guns, 210 vehicles, Assault Value = 490

Defending force 44509 troops, 349 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1275

Japanese adjusted assault: 59

Allied adjusted defense: 1115

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 18

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 44 (1 destroyed, 43 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
262 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
30th Infantry Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
4th Ind.Mixed Regiment
10th Tank Regiment
66th Infantry Regiment
11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
50th Chinese Corps
74th Chinese Corps
56th Chinese Corps
48th Chinese Corps
31st Chinese Corps
3rd New Chinese Corps
78th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Cavalry Corps
79th Chinese/B Corps
57th AT Gun Regiment
56th AT Gun Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 73,51 (near Tuyun)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 4956 troops, 40 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 146

Defending force 2260 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 95

Japanese adjusted assault: 140

Allied adjusted defense: 25

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Japanese ground losses:
117 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
698 casualties reported
Squads: 40 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
3rd/B Division

Defending units:
89th Chinese Corps

I've decided to pull out of the Sian region and collapse those forces back onto the Chungking plain, if there is even time for that.

Tulagi shows as 100% airfield damage, so the 4EB will concentrate of the port for a while. Enterprise will be ready to steam at sundown tomorrow. Ready to accompany her will be 8 x DD and 3 x CLAA, with another CLAA to catch up the day after. 3 x CA and 2 x DD are two days behind.

Tomorrow the invasion forces will pull level with Arorae, so the USMC units will execute their para drops on the southern Solomons. The invasion forces can make Tarawa in 3 days, so D-Day will be in 4 days (tomorrow is D-3). No TF reports being spotted.

Here is that map of China. Note that by moving SE from that crucial battle hex, Imperial troops will open up a supply route on a primary road. Very bad.