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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would they have put up a reasonable fight?

 
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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 2:08:16 PM   
Shark7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shellshock

You always hear it said that the loss of the battleline at Pearl Harbor forced hidebound admirals in the US to turn away from battleships, use it's carriers more aggressively and eventually see carriers as the primary weapon of the Pacific War. So, if one or two carriers are sunk and the BBs survive does that lesson still sink in?


Very unlikely IMO...at least not until after losing the battleline somewhere else to air attacks.

We already had the lesson of the British raid on Taranto and had learned nothing, would you really expect them to learn it if it had been the carriers and not the battleline that had sunk at PH? If anything, the lesson from that would be that the carriers were too fragile for fleet operations (you have to put yourself in the mindset of one of those battleship admirals).

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 4:03:37 PM   
Nikademus


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The loss of Prince of Wales and Repulse sent shocks far deeper than either PH or Taranto. That was because there were no more excuses. (Ships were in port......it was night, suprise attack etc.) Not just one but two capital ships lost the same day and soley to airpower. Combine that with the emerging realities of the Combined war effort, The USN's enthusiasm to go charging West would probably have been dampened.

Key word is "probably" The trashing of the USN battleline did indeed "Force" the US Admirals to not only discard older theories of warfare in favor of the new (because the core of that older theory had been taken out of the equation for a time), but to conceed sea superiority in the western Pacific for lack of assets.

With no PH....one can 'guess' say 'might', 'maybe', 'probable' etc etc. PH removed all doubt. It thus "forced"

< Message edited by Nikademus -- 7/20/2012 4:21:39 PM >


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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 4:47:59 PM   
AW1Steve


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I really expect that Halsey's Enterprise would have fought valiantly! And fruitlessly , sinking bravely.
Even if she joined with Lexington , they would have been run over , by longer ranged Kates and Zeros. They would have definately lost what the Russian Navy used to call "The Battle of the 1st Salvo".

Husband Kimmel was always considered very agressive as a Battleship commander. I can visualize him on the bridge of his flagship , leading the surface fleet in a 1941 naval version of the "Charge of the Light Brigade" to their doom.

Reasonable? I can't imagine either force doing well (despite Historiker's AAR to the contrary) , and I suspect the best that would have been said of the USN would have been "They died bravely with their shores on".

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 5:18:38 PM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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what would be really interesting if the japanese didn't attack pearl,
and the USN made some type of counter-attack towards the philipines

combined their 7CV (bring ranger along) and 12 BB


round 1: betties and submarines

round 2: kido butai carrier planes

round 3: yamato and company


would have been quite a spectacle (one way or the other)

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 6:16:47 PM   
Nikademus


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in all likelyhood, yes. Especially if Lex and York attacked seperately enough. IJN CAP is often maligned and it's weaknesses endlessly highlighted (to which it should be noted USN CAP wasn't all that either in 42), but in the one battle where 4 or more CV's were present, the IJN CAP accounted for 55 planes shot down over KB. Add to this that the USN escorts would not yet have gotten sufficient warning about the Zero could exaserbate the issue. The great irony of Midway is that of the four major carrier battles, it was this battle that the Japanese put in their best performance CAP wise. There were simply too many attackers coming in one after another. Much would depend on the timing and the weather variables. If the weather is clear enough and the attackers vector is along a largely single axis the IJN CAP was up to the job of causing higgidly piggidy and they'd have a numbers edge over the likely small escort. If the attack is more disjointed (multiple vectors) problems could ensue but then thats true of any CV force beset by angry bees.

Thus....the most important factor in pre 1943 CV combat was getting in the first strike. All it takes is one bomb or torpedo hit to ruin one's day for either side. Case in point....my last AI start using Da Babes.......Halsey indeed attacked a returning KB and given the die rolls that day, managed to trade Enterprise for Shokaku. The latter suffered an ammo explosion which coupled with the long distance from home led to her going glug glug. I was annoyed but what can you do when the gods turn their thumbs down on you?

Other times, its been a slaughter as KB pounces. I always steer well clear on Turn 2. Even if you reduce KB, its not worth the loss of a CV or two because it gives the Japanese an even larger window of initiative. Essex's will come but not for a good long while. Gotta protect the assets and play it like Nimitz did. Only expose if the gains are worth the risk. A situation where a KB isn't fighting with one armed tied behind it's back and there's an assumption of enemy carriers lurking is not what i'd consider good odds if i'm piloting a single carrier. I'd order my boys to evade and live to fight another day with better odds.


< Message edited by Nikademus -- 7/20/2012 6:18:30 PM >


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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 6:36:42 PM   
Apollo11


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Hi all,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

in all likelyhood, yes. Especially if Lex and York attacked seperately enough. IJN CAP is often maligned and it's weaknesses endlessly highlighted (to which it should be noted USN CAP wasn't all that either in 42), but in the one battle where 4 or more CV's were present, the IJN CAP accounted for 55 planes shot down over KB. Add to this that the USN escorts would not yet have gotten sufficient warning about the Zero could exaserbate the issue. The great irony of Midway is that of the four major carrier battles, it was this battle that the Japanese put in their best performance CAP wise. There were simply too many attackers coming in one after another. Much would depend on the timing and the weather variables. If the weather is clear enough and the attackers vector is along a largely single axis the IJN CAP was up to the job of causing higgidly piggidy and they'd have a numbers edge over the likely small escort. If the attack is more disjointed (multiple vectors) problems could ensue but then thats true of any CV force beset by angry bees.

Thus....the most important factor in pre 1943 CV combat was getting in the first strike. All it takes is one bomb or torpedo hit to ruin one's day for either side. Case in point....my last AI start using Da Babes.......Halsey indeed attacked a returning KB and given the die rolls that day, managed to trade Enterprise for Shokaku. The latter suffered an ammo explosion which coupled with the long distance from home led to her going glug glug. I was annoyed but what can you do when the gods turn their thumbs down on you?

Other times, its been a slaughter as KB pounces. I always steer well clear on Turn 2. Even if you reduce KB, its not worth the loss of a CV or two because it gives the Japanese an even larger window of initiative. Essex's will come but not for a good long while. Gotta protect the assets and play it like Nimitz did. Only expose if the gains are worth the risk. A situation where a KB isn't fighting with one armed tied behind it's back and there's an assumption of enemy carriers lurking is not what i'd consider good odds if i'm piloting a single carrier. I'd order my boys to evade and live to fight another day with better odds.


Yamamoto did love huge and complex battle plans (with dispersion of force)... IJN paid dearly for it at Midway...


Leo "Apollo11"

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/20/2012 7:36:53 PM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Apollo11

Hi all,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

in all likelyhood, yes. Especially if Lex and York attacked seperately enough. IJN CAP is often maligned and it's weaknesses endlessly highlighted (to which it should be noted USN CAP wasn't all that either in 42), but in the one battle where 4 or more CV's were present, the IJN CAP accounted for 55 planes shot down over KB. Add to this that the USN escorts would not yet have gotten sufficient warning about the Zero could exaserbate the issue. The great irony of Midway is that of the four major carrier battles, it was this battle that the Japanese put in their best performance CAP wise. There were simply too many attackers coming in one after another. Much would depend on the timing and the weather variables. If the weather is clear enough and the attackers vector is along a largely single axis the IJN CAP was up to the job of causing higgidly piggidy and they'd have a numbers edge over the likely small escort. If the attack is more disjointed (multiple vectors) problems could ensue but then thats true of any CV force beset by angry bees.

Thus....the most important factor in pre 1943 CV combat was getting in the first strike. All it takes is one bomb or torpedo hit to ruin one's day for either side. Case in point....my last AI start using Da Babes.......Halsey indeed attacked a returning KB and given the die rolls that day, managed to trade Enterprise for Shokaku. The latter suffered an ammo explosion which coupled with the long distance from home led to her going glug glug. I was annoyed but what can you do when the gods turn their thumbs down on you?

Other times, its been a slaughter as KB pounces. I always steer well clear on Turn 2. Even if you reduce KB, its not worth the loss of a CV or two because it gives the Japanese an even larger window of initiative. Essex's will come but not for a good long while. Gotta protect the assets and play it like Nimitz did. Only expose if the gains are worth the risk. A situation where a KB isn't fighting with one armed tied behind it's back and there's an assumption of enemy carriers lurking is not what i'd consider good odds if i'm piloting a single carrier. I'd order my boys to evade and live to fight another day with better odds.


I think the whole Imperial Naval Staff suffered from that affliction! Don't forget the Leyte plan which was concieved long after Isoruku was room temperature!
Yamamoto did love huge and complex battle plans (with dispersion of force)... IJN paid dearly for it at Midway...


Leo "Apollo11"



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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/21/2012 12:30:37 AM   
wdolson

 

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The US had intelligence that the IJN was likely to hit American targets sometime in early December, but nobody really knew where. I suspect somebody who knew the potential of carriers made sure the USN CVs stayed at sea as much as possible during that window. The big gun admirals held most of the highest command positions within the USN, but Joseph Reeves had just retired.

Reeves was the visionary admiral who established most of the successful carrier doctrines and he ended his carrier as CNO. This is a good biography http://www.amazon.com/All-Factors-Victory-Origins-Carrier/dp/B006G83LRY/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1342826795&sr=8-9&keywords=Joseph+Reeves

One of Reeves' former staff may have been in an important position and made sure the CVs were kept busy.

After PH the USN realized the CVs were not ready for prime time yet and they spent most of the next 5 months on raids to train up the air groups. When the intelligence gave them an opening, they would send in one or two carriers on a raid to give the Japanese a bad day. The most spectacular was the Enterprise's raid on the Marshalls in, I believe February 42. Intelligence firmly place the KB well to the west, so the Enterprise was sent to the Marshalls to see what kind of havoc it could do.

Bill

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/21/2012 12:39:07 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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Not only were the carriers to the west, but also IJN LBA was grinding itself down above the philipines / dei

a properly garrisoned marshals (bettys at roi-namur, maloelap, and wotje would have made halsey swim home)



one thing i wonder: just how accurate was allied intelligence on japanese land based airpower numbers in 1942

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/21/2012 2:18:48 PM   
ilovestrategy


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According to Shattered Sword, Yamamato wasn't concerned about American carriers raiding but was concerned that there were American carriers at all. He really wanted to bag them at Pearl.

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/21/2012 8:12:18 PM   
pmelheck1

 

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I don't think the CV's at pearl would have launched any AC and would have been heavily damaged or destroyed. Most likely the aircraft aboard would have been stood down and not alert ready being in port on a weekend. If I remember correctly you don't jump into a AC turn a key and fly off. It takes a bit of time to service and prepare an aircraft for launch which is why they would not have been able to offer any help. Without a war their is no reason to keep aircraft fully fueled and armed as this is a major safety issue both to the crew and the ship and most likely most if not all aircraft would have been empty of fuel and ammo. Being in port I don't imagine any alert birds were kept as that would have been expected of the base defenses. Remember during the attack that ammo lockers had to be broken into with axes as they didn't keep ammo in the ready racks at the weapons as it was peace time. I'm not an expert on CV ops but I'm not sure if combat loaded Aircraft can be quickly and easily launched from stationary carriers in WW2. I remember something about turning into the wind and wanting a certain airspeed over the deck but again my only experience is with land based war-birds.

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/21/2012 8:55:59 PM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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japanese planes had a really small take-off run (small weight and big wings) so a zero probably could take off from a parked carriers

probably not a TBD devastator with a torpdo underneath..


(actually diving into the water is the only way to survive the torpedo 8 mission in aotp..
"oops... i had engine trouble "

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/21/2012 11:13:29 PM   
bigred


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quote:

As you can imagine, the island natives were pretty awestruck by a bunch of dirty, oily SOB's that spoke funny being deposited on their island. But apparently the native women were quite enamored with their tee-shirts (the men didn't have much else). Only problem was, the shirts didn't fit the better endowed gals, so they cut two holes in them and walked around like that..!! Hmmmm..


going native?

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/22/2012 12:09:55 AM   
wdolson

 

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It is standard practice to fly off a carrier's air group when it arrives in port. The air groups from the carriers would have been on one or more of the air bases around Pearl. Since the carrier aircraft are not tasked with base defense, they would have been stood down and the crews probably would have been on leave.

I don't have the data, but I believe the required take off runs for IJN aircraft was similar to US aircraft. The USN carriers also had catapults. I believe the Yorktown and Enterprise had catapults on the hanger deck, I know a couple did, but they were removed early war. Operating the catapults slowed down flight ops, so a run down the deck was preferable.

For strikes, it was common practice (in both navies) to spot the fighters in the front because they required the shortest deck runs, and the heavy laden bombers in the back.

Because of catapults, USN CVEs were able to operate TBFs with little trouble, but most Japanese torpedo bombers were limited to the fleet carriers.

Japanese aircraft early war did have some advantages. The Zero was an excellent aircraft for the time and the Kate was probably the best carrier torpedo bomber in service, but it didn't have much serious competition, the British were using biplanes and the USN was using a plane introduced in 1935. The TBD caused quite a sensation when it was new. It was the first all metal monoplane carrier aircraft and was very fast for its day. It was just obsolete by 1942.

Bill

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/22/2012 1:12:09 AM   
Commander Stormwolf

 

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Zero / Kate / Val had wing loadings of around 100kg/m2

they had pretty short take off runs --> and slow landing speeds

only planes easier to handle on carriers would be biplanes


F4U for example was called the engisn eliminator,

really high landing speed at 200kg/m2 (plus bad visibility)

if i had to take a crack however, i would guess that a F4F-3 loaded with minimal fuel, from the very back of a large carrier like enterprise / lexington
probably could take off from it standing still

(remember they managed to llft off those B-25s from hornet)


but like the poster above says: probably sent to ford island naval base (or other aerodrome) and stood down

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/22/2012 1:51:39 AM   
Titanwarrior89


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Would the US Carriers have put up a fight at pearl......not according to WitpAE.

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/22/2012 5:58:27 AM   
John 3rd


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The US had intelligence that the IJN was likely to hit American targets sometime in early December, but nobody really knew where. I suspect somebody who knew the potential of carriers made sure the USN CVs stayed at sea as much as possible during that window. The big gun admirals held most of the highest command positions within the USN, but Joseph Reeves had just retired.

Reeves was the visionary admiral who established most of the successful carrier doctrines and he ended his carrier as CNO. This is a good biography http://www.amazon.com/All-Factors-Victory-Origins-Carrier/dp/B006G83LRY/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1342826795&sr=8-9&keywords=Joseph+Reeves

One of Reeves' former staff may have been in an important position and made sure the CVs were kept busy.

After PH the USN realized the CVs were not ready for prime time yet and they spent most of the next 5 months on raids to train up the air groups. When the intelligence gave them an opening, they would send in one or two carriers on a raid to give the Japanese a bad day. The most spectacular was the Enterprise's raid on the Marshalls in, I believe February 42. Intelligence firmly place the KB well to the west, so the Enterprise was sent to the Marshalls to see what kind of havoc it could do.

Bill


Great book recommendation here. I used a portion of it in my Thesis for my Masters Degree. Excellent--visionary--person.


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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/23/2012 11:31:27 PM   
spence

 

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If the carriers (Enterprise and Lexington) were present at Pearl Harbor on December 7th they would almost certainly have been sunk or severely damaged.
Other than the unlikely chance that their fighter pilots just happened to be hanging around the ready room early on a Sunday morning the carrier's fighters would have contributed nothing to the defense. Even with the same rather ridiculous presumption pertaining to their dive bombers and torpedo planes such bombers as they might have contributed would have approached KB from the most anticipated axis in small groups and probably would have suffered accordingly (a la Torpedo Eight at Midway).

The game system does not appear to me to allow that the bombers from the Enterprise and Lexington approach from a totally unexpected axis with a fighter escort that fully engages the KB's CAP or keeps the Zeroes off the bombers until they have dropped their loads. IRL two major KB ships succumbed to exactly one hit due to the poor damage control organization and doctrine of the IJN. According to US Navy (Air) Doctrine the two U.S carriers had enough squadrons to devote an entire squadron to each of KB's carriers. The game system seems to allow the CAP to engage any first incoming raid at full strength (different percentages pertain according to nationality apparently) with some per cent decrease according to the number of subsequent raids. Such a logical progression is not entirely justified by the doctrine and organization of the IJN which charged and allowed individual pilots with reacting to threats as they saw fit from their individual cockpits. At Midway this resulted in approximately half of the available CAP attacking J Thach's six fighter escort for VT-3 and the other half completely ignoring VB-5 (much to Soryu's detriment) while at the same not detecting VS-6 and VB-6 at all (much to the detriment of Akagi and Kaga). It should also be noted that the KB CAP completely failed to notice or intercept the 9 Blenheims that found KB off of Ceylon until after they dropped their bombs. I am not saying the two U.S. carriers could have defeated the 6 KB carriers on December 7th. I am arguing that the system does not reflect the foibles of Japanese CAP doctrine/organization adequately. Combined with their own total lack of knowledge as to the whereabouts of the U.S. carriers and their generous fuel supply they get to go hunting U.S. CVs or attacking Pearl Harbor on subsequent days with hardly a care in the world. Not at all realistic.

< Message edited by spence -- 7/23/2012 11:34:48 PM >

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Post #: 48
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 12:17:02 AM   
Shark7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

If the carriers (Enterprise and Lexington) were present at Pearl Harbor on December 7th they would almost certainly have been sunk or severely damaged.
Other than the unlikely chance that their fighter pilots just happened to be hanging around the ready room early on a Sunday morning the carrier's fighters would have contributed nothing to the defense. Even with the same rather ridiculous presumption pertaining to their dive bombers and torpedo planes such bombers as they might have contributed would have approached KB from the most anticipated axis in small groups and probably would have suffered accordingly (a la Torpedo Eight at Midway).

The game system does not appear to me to allow that the bombers from the Enterprise and Lexington approach from a totally unexpected axis with a fighter escort that fully engages the KB's CAP or keeps the Zeroes off the bombers until they have dropped their loads. IRL two major KB ships succumbed to exactly one hit due to the poor damage control organization and doctrine of the IJN. According to US Navy (Air) Doctrine the two U.S carriers had enough squadrons to devote an entire squadron to each of KB's carriers. The game system seems to allow the CAP to engage any first incoming raid at full strength (different percentages pertain according to nationality apparently) with some per cent decrease according to the number of subsequent raids. Such a logical progression is not entirely justified by the doctrine and organization of the IJN which charged and allowed individual pilots with reacting to threats as they saw fit from their individual cockpits. At Midway this resulted in approximately half of the available CAP attacking J Thach's six fighter escort for VT-3 and the other half completely ignoring VB-5 (much to Soryu's detriment) while at the same not detecting VS-6 and VB-6 at all (much to the detriment of Akagi and Kaga). It should also be noted that the KB CAP completely failed to notice or intercept the 9 Blenheims that found KB off of Ceylon until after they dropped their bombs. I am not saying the two U.S. carriers could have defeated the 6 KB carriers on December 7th. I am arguing that the system does not reflect the foibles of Japanese CAP doctrine/organization adequately. Combined with their own total lack of knowledge as to the whereabouts of the U.S. carriers and their generous fuel supply they get to go hunting U.S. CVs or attacking Pearl Harbor on subsequent days with hardly a care in the world. Not at all realistic.


Agreed. No doubt the IJN pilots had special instructions to target carriers if present, and the Carriers could not take as many hits as the BBs did and survive it.

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 2:38:49 AM   
wdolson

 

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I read an article not too long ago about the IJN's failure at PH. The article challenged the claims that it was such a huge victory for the Japanese. The author went into a lot of detail about the plan for the raid and he had charts of where the bombs and torpedoes went. The Vals and level bombing Kates scored very poorly.

Lack of radios forced the strike commander to use flares to tell the formations what to do. One flare meant complete suprise achieved: 1st wave focuses on ship, 2 flares mean the Americans were alerted and the 1st wave Vals should focus on air base targets.

One flare also freed up the Zeros to attack the air fields. The strike commander fired one flare, but the Zeros didn't see it. The Vals did. He fired a second flare to get the Zeros attention, but the Val commander thought the 2nd flare meant he should concentrate on the air fields instead of ships and went after the air fields.

As a result the air fields got more attention from the 1st strike then they should have and the ships got less attention.

The 2nd wave Vals wasted a bunch of bombs trying to sink the USS Dale in the ship channel. They dropped something like 18 bombs and only succeeded in doing some light damage to the Dale.

The IJN high command did not think the US carriers as much of a threat as the BBs, and wanted the strike to focus on the BBs. Against orders the commander who did the detail planning for the strike tasked a fair number of Kates to go after the carriers. These Kates ended up seeking out secondary targets like the Utah when their primary targets were not there.

The article was in World War II magazine about 4 months ago. Very interesting and in the same vein as Shattered Sword in the type of exhaustive detail.

Bill

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 2:51:46 AM   
GaryChildress

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

I read an article not too long ago about the IJN's failure at PH. The article challenged the claims that it was such a huge victory for the Japanese. The author went into a lot of detail about the plan for the raid and he had charts of where the bombs and torpedoes went. The Vals and level bombing Kates scored very poorly.

Lack of radios forced the strike commander to use flares to tell the formations what to do. One flare meant complete suprise achieved: 1st wave focuses on ship, 2 flares mean the Americans were alerted and the 1st wave Vals should focus on air base targets.

One flare also freed up the Zeros to attack the air fields. The strike commander fired one flare, but the Zeros didn't see it. The Vals did. He fired a second flare to get the Zeros attention, but the Val commander thought the 2nd flare meant he should concentrate on the air fields instead of ships and went after the air fields.

As a result the air fields got more attention from the 1st strike then they should have and the ships got less attention.

The 2nd wave Vals wasted a bunch of bombs trying to sink the USS Dale in the ship channel. They dropped something like 18 bombs and only succeeded in doing some light damage to the Dale.

The IJN high command did not think the US carriers as much of a threat as the BBs, and wanted the strike to focus on the BBs. Against orders the commander who did the detail planning for the strike tasked a fair number of Kates to go after the carriers. These Kates ended up seeking out secondary targets like the Utah when their primary targets were not there.

The article was in World War II magazine about 4 months ago. Very interesting and in the same vein as Shattered Sword in the type of exhaustive detail.

Bill


With hindsight it doesn't seem like much of a victory at all. Only 2 relatively obsolete battleships permanently lost. I think the way PH is commonly perceived in most people's consciousness is that the Japanese destroyed the whole American fleet. I remember reading somewhere that the Japanese would have been better advised to go after the oil storage farm and the port facilities and that would have knocked the US out of the fight for a longer period of time than hitting the battleships actually did.

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Post #: 51
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 3:06:33 PM   
pmelheck1

 

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It's always been my impression that Pearl was a tactical victory but a strategic defeat of the highest magnitude. It galvanized the country in a way that people today just can't understand, even 9-11 didn't elicit the response Pearl harbor did. What happened with Pearl is of a smaller quantity in the war over all as the U.S. was in the war for the long haul. What happened in the first months of the war might have been altered but what happened over the course of years wouldn't have been. The only hope that the Japanese might have had would have been war wariness over losses. If Japan had been able to inflict large enough losses it might have been able to negotiate a cease fire. I don't know if Japan would have been able to do so though. It seemed to me as if forces were at work on both sides to prevent any form of negotiation. The advantage of the Atomic Bombs was they shocked those forces enough in some cases to think the unthinkable. I also think losses on the allied side would have been horrific but absolutely apocalyptic on the Japanese side. I know I'll be crucified by some for this but I think the losses from both atomic bombings were insignificant compared to what would have been inflicted by an invasion not to mention the destruction of what was left of the Japanese cities and infrastructure.

Just my minor little view and I'll bow to those who are much more knowledgeable than I.



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Post #: 52
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 3:49:15 PM   
TSCofield

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: aether59

Just a note on this discussion, not that I'm an expert or anything.

My father was a chief gunnery officer on the CV-2 Lexington on PH day and he went in the water when she was sunk in the battle of the Coral Sea. His job in the tower was to watch his quadrant of the radar and call out the incoming plane coordinates to the gun crews. The RCA CXAM radar were new then, and not very capable. From Wikipedia on that radar system, it says the Lex spotted incoming Zero's at 68 miles at Coral Sea, which is about at most 10 minutes warning. My father said the radar stunk at and was unreliable with altitude, and they called the antenna the "rotating bed mattress", because that's what it looked like.

Had they been at PH, and if there had been radar men, gun crews and pilots at quarters early that Sunday morning, how many planes can you scramble in 10 minutes?

He said the men were told, as to the reason they were steaming away from PH on Dec. 5th, 1941 was the Admiral thought they were getting lazy, and needed to go out on maneuvers. Makes sense on hindsight, I guess, since her and the Enterprise missions were secret for two reasons: Not to alert the Japs that the CV's were missing from PH and to keep the 12 planes on each a secret about being delivered to Wake and Midway.

Always seemed to me that would be an awful small job for such large carriers, but I guess they felt those planes were really needed on the islands.

I got the sense from him, as has been mentioned on this board, that the men were pretty green...after all, the Coral Sea was the first carrier to carrier combat. My father always said that it was fuel lines leaking that did the Lexington in, but the official report points more toward gas fumes erupting in the air ventilation system than the fuel supply lines.

Like most battle hardened vets, he never spoke much at all about the war...it took 40 years to get these few tid-bits out of him.

Though I do remember him talking about the Zero pilot who smiled and saluted to the men in the tower as he roared past. After the men were collected from the Coral Sea waters, the Navy dumped them on an island called Tonga-Tapu for a few weeks, because they were still in dangerous waters and the Navy couldn't spare a ship(s) to ferry them back stateside.

As you can imagine, the island natives were pretty awestruck by a bunch of dirty, oily SOB's that spoke funny being deposited on their island. But apparently the native women were quite enamored with their tee-shirts (the men didn't have much else). Only problem was, the shirts didn't fit the better endowed gals, so they cut two holes in them and walked around like that..!! Hmmmm..

Jon


My grandfather was a Navy Corpsman aboard the Lexington. Like your dad he really didn't talk about it much. He left the ship with his uniform and his Corpsman handbook. I have it in our lock box at the bank, water stained and everything.



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Post #: 53
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 3:57:13 PM   
TSCofield

 

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Pearl Harbor probably would have saved US lives ultimately. If two carriers went with them the ships might have made it partially through but I bet those carriers would have gone down as well.

If the battleship fleet at Pearl managed to survive intact there would have been a relief attempt to the Phillipines. I seriously doubt those slow BBs would have made it all the way to Manila and back without some serious damage, along with whatever transports and secondary ships sunk along the way. The Japanese could have picked off the ships slowly, while en route and possibly destroyed the whole force. By being damaged at Pearl those BBs, and their crews, were given a second life. Being sunk in deep water would have been a disaster for the USN.

As for the carriers. I doubt the radar would even have been turned on, much less manned on a Sunday right after getting back to port. More than likely a good portion of the crew of the Big E would have been on liberty and the ship would have been manned by a highly reduced crew while the carrier was refueles, reloaded and repaired. Short of an Arizona type of explosion she would have been raised quickly but you wouldn't have seen her probably before late 1942.

I

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Post #: 54
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 4:31:14 PM   
Nikademus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

I read an article not too long ago about the IJN's failure at PH. The article challenged the claims that it was such a huge victory for the Japanese. The author went into a lot of detail about the plan for the raid and he had charts of where the bombs and torpedoes went. The Vals and level bombing Kates scored very poorly.



Alan Zimm's book goes along the same theme. It is a very critical review, IMO unfair and uncharitable in places as well. Some of the comparisons made were also downright head scratching. Taranto for example. When compared to later raids of similar context made by the US against moored Japanese ships in the home islands, the raid comes off better....much better in fact. There was also the simple fact that noone had ever conducted a carrier raid of similar scope and ambition before. Book did have it's good points though too. Ironically (given what you wrote about this other article), Zimm gives the best marks to the Kate level bombers which scored a remarkable hit ratio. The US Battleline was only saved from further severe damage due to the high dud rate of the converted 800KG bombs....otherwise there might have been at least one other mag explosion.

Zimm's book also touched on the same carrier vs. battleship tug of war. According to Zimm, the Admiralty's primary objectives were battleships. Per the author Yamamotto's primary target was to sink at least one battleship for shock value on the US public. Genda's priority list was reversed with carriers at the top and it is suggested that the latter deliberately changed the gameplan which led to the overattack on Utah which was moored where the carriers would normally be. Your article may have been written by the same person

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 10:44:04 PM   
wdolson

 

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I think the article was written by Zimm. I vaguely recall a comment by the editor that the article was a condensation of an upcoming book. I must have misremembered the level Kates. He was critical of the planning which allocated so many Kates to carry torpedoes with no contingency plan to change load outs as needed.

You are right that the raid was unprecedented in some ways such as scale. The USN had practiced coordinating 2 carriers, but had never tried any more than that.

About the prospect of raising any carriers sunk at PH. I doubt that if US CVs had been there and had been sunk they would have been raisable. The BBs were capable of being raised because of their heavy construction kept the overall structure of the ship intact. Two DDs destroyed at PH were technically "returned to service" but in reality they were all new ships with some of the fittings salvaged from the old ships. This was done more for propaganda value than anything else.

And the story that the fuel lines ruptured on the Lexington which caused the sinking. From what I have read, I think it was in Shattered Sword, it was standard practice in both navies before the war to not purge fuel lines with CO2 after fueling aircraft. The Lexington had fuel lines full of av gas fumes that fueled fires. The same thing happened at Midway to the Japanese.

After Coral Sea the USN started purging fuel lines with CO2 after fueling of aircraft was complete and it probably saved some carriers throughout the war.

Bill

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Post #: 56
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 11:27:48 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson



After Coral Sea the USN started purging fuel lines with CO2 after fueling of aircraft was complete and it probably saved some carriers throughout the war.

Bill

Ah why ? I mean what was the effect of the difference ? Or what was bad about purging the fuel lines after every plane ?


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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 11:39:33 PM   
Nikademus


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prior to Coral Sea neither USN or IJN's bothered purging out fuel from the lines after gassing up a strike. It was a learn from experience sort of thing. The extreme hazzard of fire and explosion aboard a carrier was not yet appreciated. After Lexington's literal eruption in the aftermath of her battle damage, ways were looked at to minimize the chance of explosion via flamable materials and gasses. Pushing inert CO2 through the fuel lines eliminated a big source of potential combustability if faced with an impending attack.

You couldn't purge the fuel line after every plane was gassed. It would have greatly slowed down prep time for a strike group of planes. It would be the equivilent of only bringing up a single bomb at a time from the mags.....fixing it in place and then going back to the hoist for another. Obviously this is what made carriers so vulnerable during strike preperation. The carrier became a floating bomb because fuel lines were open and there was alot of explosive ordinance out on the flight and/or hanger decks. Fueled planes themselves even without ordinance were bombs waiting to go off. Early warning and quickness of pace were critical.

The US had an edge with it's radar. It often gave enough warning allowing ops to be cleared...flight decks cleared and bombs and fuel sources tucked away, including purging the lines. A good example of lack of warning and securing occured to the Franklin.

< Message edited by Nikademus -- 7/24/2012 11:41:18 PM >


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Post #: 58
RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/24/2012 11:44:09 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


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Aaah thank you very much for that explanation. I have some issues with the technical stuff. Very interesting tho.

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RE: OT: If the carriers had been at Pearl Harbor, would... - 7/25/2012 12:43:07 AM   
spence

 

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quote:

With hindsight it doesn't seem like much of a victory at all. Only 2 relatively obsolete battleships permanently lost. I think the way PH is commonly perceived in most people's consciousness is that the Japanese destroyed the whole American fleet. I remember reading somewhere that the Japanese would have been better advised to go after the oil storage farm and the port facilities and that would have knocked the US out of the fight for a longer period of time than hitting the battleships actually did.



That's just what LCDR Fuchida (leader of the strike and purported (mostly by himself) advocate of the "third strike") said to his interrogators after the war.

In his book on Pearl harbor Alan Zimm analyzes this particular proposition. Destroying oil tanks sounds quite easy after all. Strangely, the Navy had recognized that oil burns, in fact burns quite well; and had taken some precautions to protect the tanks (especially from one another). They built earthen berms around each tank capable of containing the oil contained in the tank. It should also be noted that in order for Bunker C/NSFO #6 to even flow (you know, like a liquid) it is necessary to heat it to about 140F. It is not very volatile so a fire in a single tank would NOT have been likely to spread to adjacent tanks. One might also consider that the number of bombs which could have been carried for this "proposed" strike was limited to those that the (surviving) a/c could have carried (most limited to one or maybe two bombs) and in any case well under 250 a/c (which were not B-17s or B-24s).
Also the Americans were quite likely to have their flak guns manned and ready for any repeat performance by the KB. As it was the 2nd strike (on Dec 7th) still benefiting some from surprise suffered damage to roughly a third of its aircraft. Alan Zimm argues that the "Oil Tank Raid" is mostly a combination construct of American hysteria following the initial raid combined with Fuchida's postwar testimony regarding his imaginary prescience.

The KB did what nobody had done before by launching two massive coordinated air strikes against an enemy bastion. It satisfied Yamamoto's desire to shock by sinking battleships. If there had been any carriers in the harbor it probably would have sunk them as well. BUT the KB was a raiding force. The KB was not like the 1944-45 style USN CVTFs that parked themselves off the enemy's shore and pounded whatever they wanted to for as long as they wanted to do so. The KB was a PIONEER in carrier operations, not their ultimate expression of power.




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