RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 8:00:07 PM

Ingtar

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It would be amusing to start a third thread on this game for those of us reading both sides to discuss things.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 8:02:40 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

KB is at Sabang.

I think the KB is necessary for Oz if Japan is coming for the entire continent. A blockade is necessary to prevent reinforcements from coming in via Capetown.

But it is highly unlikely that Oz is the target in this game. I'm still not sure exactly how many divisons Japan gets in the game, but vast numbers are already committed in China, India and Port Blair. The two recently at Java and Koepang are both at Port Blair. It would take him weeks or months to move everything back to Oz. The Allies could probably beat him there.

That reminds me. 32nd USA Div. (SWPac and therefore free to transfer) arrives pretty soon. Where should she go? India? Oz? Noumea? Or a counterinvasion? (The latter is unlikely at the early date for reasons articulated in my previous post, plus even more reasons.)

Well if Alliford Bay is crowded with aircraft, wouldn't it be nice to close it with bombing/bombardment and then invade to get them while they are stuck on the ground. You would have to know where the NOPAC KB is but you must have BBs that could do the deed if the "coast is clear".

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 8:08:31 PM

paullus99

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Well, if our intrepid allied commander still holds on to Singapore for a while longer, it should be very easy for him to determine the locations of any carriers within easy scouting distance.....I also believe, with working torpedoes, that Canoe is going to get lucky sooner, rather than later & smack himself a couple of IJN carriers.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 8:09:13 PM

Canoerebel

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Alliford Bay is a level six (or seven?) airfield wtih more than 200 aircraft and, I think, something like 17 units. I don't know what's there, yet, but there's no way I could get anywhere close to that hornet's nest without getting a fleet full of torpedoes. Better to just let it sit and waste away while I concentrate on places where I can do something profitable.

(in reply to BBfanboy)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 8:11:12 PM

Canoerebel

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Singapore is going to vex PH before all is said and done. It is out of supply, but has 1250 AV 100% prepped. That's going to take a serious effort on his part. Until he attends to it, the place has plenty of fuel to gas up subs operating all over the place. (But I don't think torps are available since the place is out of supply.)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 8:59:16 PM

paullus99

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Canoe - any chance of sneaking supply in? It would really pain him to find you have been able to keep those guys fed, while he's off on various other adventures?

Of course, he is probably LRCAP'ing the base, right?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 9:30:04 PM

TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum

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I suppose the only real way to tell if he's LRCAP-ing Singers is to sweep an adjacent hex and see if the LRCAP leaks over. Then again, PH has bigger problems if your fighters are in range to sweep.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 9:36:39 PM

Canoerebel

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The only practical way to get supply to Singers now is by sub transport. I think using subs as torps platforms is more efficient right now, especially since I know the whereabouts of so many targets.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 9:39:46 PM

TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The only practical way to get supply to Singers now is by sub transport. I think using subs as torps platforms is more efficient right now, especially since I know the whereabouts of so many targets.

Not to mention he's probably mined the harbor by this point. And losing a sub to get an extra 100 supply into Singapore would be dreadful.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 9:48:11 PM

Canoerebel

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4/4/42

Port Blair: This important base falls. That frees up two IJA divisions and gives Steve considerably more room to operate. I wonder if he'll send the troops forward. It would be a blessing, probably, if he diverted them to Sabang, though I am making good use of that base for patrol aircraft.

India: 8th Marines gets away. I am guardedly optimistic the Japanese won't be able to catch up (I think Steve may be lamenting the absence of his armor in India right now - most of those units are in China, Oz, and the SWPac islands). Nearly 500k supply at Karachi, with 450k at Bombay. Much more inbound. Another engineer unit (this one a good American outfit) arrives at Socatra.

Reinforcements: 18th UK Div. is halfway between Cocos and Diego, with lots more reinforcements trailing. The route still seems open.

Japanese Intentions: I can only guess that Steve is gathering a truly massive invasion armada. That's the only reason I can think of to park the KB where it's at. If he's coming, and it's massive, I'd say the objective will be Ceylon or India's west coast. If it's the former, he can pick it up on the cheap now. If it's the latter, Bombay has 450 AV, Karachi 800 (with 200 enroute), Bhaumgat (spelling?) 300 (that's the port closest to Karachi), and lots of other units not far away. So a rear-door play shouldn't meet with easy success. Not to mention the Allied carriers, which have refueled, recovered their aircraft, and are making their way slowly SE (true). If Steve moves for Ceylon or Viz, I might raid Sumatra. If he comes for the West Coast, my carriers will force the issue.

China: Lanchow Sector: Now 10 IJ units in the mountains NE (true) of Lanchow, with about 20 still in the original hex. Lots of Chinese units in the mountains all over the place. I think the Chinese can counter whatever he's up to. Some might note that this entire campaign somewhat resembles the Atlanta Campaign. Johnston kept countering Sherman effectively, but kept retiring while doing so, so that gave up alot of ground. The Chinese have pulled back some, but we're not yet in a Johnstonesque mode. The MLR is still intact.

North America: Five good American AA units at San Fran and points south are moving to East Coast. If things still look quiet on the West Coast by the time they arrive, they'll move to Capetown. I still have scads of AA units at Seattle, Vancouver, and several other important bases.

Port Moresby: Oops, those USN destroyers go in tonight, not last night. :) IJ combat ships are present, so let's see what happens.

Oz: Something seems to be moving south towards Port Headland. CA Australia and CLs Boise and Mauritius are present to provide cover.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/8/2012 9:50:24 PM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/8/2012 10:00:58 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ingtar
It would be amusing to start a third thread on this game for those of us reading both sides to discuss things.

That very thing was done during the WitP PBEM match between JohnIII and I about four years ago. What prompted the third AAR was that at the same moment John was implementing a massive and unlikley invasion of India in 1944, covered by his carriers, the Allies had just sent their carriers from Oz to India. Somehow the two forces didn't bump into each other.

(in reply to Ingtar)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 1:57:42 AM

Canoerebel

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04/05/42

An awful notion crossed my mind today, conjuring all kinds of nightmares, which I'll tell you about in just a minute. First, the regular report for the day:

India: The Japanese have two divisions moving on Calcutta, two following 8th Marines, and at least one more somewhere. The KB remains parked near Sabang. The Allied carriers continue to slide slowly southeast after topping off fuel. The reinforcement convoys from Perthy continue to slide west unmolested. Really, things are very good in India, which gives me pause....

China: Three small Chinese corps stood up to three IJ divisions southeast of Changsha. Another good showing for the Chinese.

Luzon: The Japanese got a 1:1 attack today. This base will fall on the next assault. Three IJ dvisions are here, so all three will be free. to go elsewhere....

Japan: SigInt that 53rd Div., which has been in Osaka since day one, is now at Tokyo. That suggests PH has "bought her" to move her out of the Home Islands....

Port Moresby: Six American DDs clash with two small IJN CL/DD TFs. The USN gets the best in the first clash, but takes some punishment in the second. I think both sides lost two destroyers, which is a good showing for the Allies. I had reports of a Betty flying over, plus there are a strangely large number of enemy units at PM...

North America: No sign of Akagi and Kaga. I feel sure they are heading towards the Indian Ocean, but what if Steve instead detailed them to Port Moresby to spring an ambush on the combat ships operating there....

Forebodings: The disconcerting thought I keep having is: What if Steve is coming for Oz after all? He has alot of divisons available: 4th and 6th Guards, three at Bataan that will be free shortly, 53rd at Tokyo, and the two at Port Blair. That's alot of firepower if Stee brings them to Oz, especially if I've stripped Oz (indeed, I have) leaving it underprotected. Undoubtedly there could be more out there. Scary thought and it's definately the kind of thing PH would do. Imagine besieging North America, Oz, India and China in a single game! Ouch!

Monitoring the Forebodings: So I will keep very careful tabs on the KB and the Akagi/Kaga group. I will carefully watch to see if the two divisions at Port Blair end up in India, or instead disappear into the ether. I will search for signs. And most importantly, I will not overcommit my assets until I know exactly what's going on here. My train of reinforcement TFs enroute from Perth to India can halt and hold station for awhile. My carriers will slide further SE to cover them and to sprint for Oz if necessary. 32nd Division, when she arrives in 12 days, will go to Oz (unless circumstances change). Sara and York will be near San Diego in a few days to recover their aircraft. I have many options in how to employ them, but one would be to head for the New Zealand/Oz area. Not sure about that though.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 2:22:21 AM

GreyJoy

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How can steve by out all those divisions by april 42?

I mean, slightly a division every month, i know, but that not considering all the PPs you have to spend to change leaders, buy out air units from Korea/manchukoku, upgrading 1e groups to 2e, buying out the tanks from Manchuria, buying out base forces etc etc etc...

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 2:30:51 AM

Canoerebel

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I haven't looked at it from that angle, GJ. I'm not familiar with the Japanese side of things. I am assuming he's paying to bring in Kwantung units, but he might have a different philosophy than I do.

I think Japan begins the game with roughly ten divisions free to move about. Then three more come - 4th Guards, 6th Guards, and Guards Tanks. In addition to those 13, he's had time to buy two to four more.

Right now he has something like 20 non-Kwantung units in lower China. I think eleven more are accounted four outside Japan and China: Canada (1); Port Blair (2); Luzon (3) and India (5).

I could do the math and figure out what's possible, but I need a few hours of non gaming time. Right now, we're flipping turns at a ridiculous rate! But perhaps I can delve deeper into my "divisional reconciliation" to see what is going on and what's possible.

(in reply to GreyJoy)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 2:41:29 PM

Canoerebel

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4/6/42

India: 8th Marines has some separation from the pursuers. Another engineering unit has landed at Socatra. 500k supply at both Karachi and Bombay. Still trying to figure out if just the five enemy divisions are in NE India, or whether more have arrived. If it's just the five, the Allies can wage an effective campaign in and around Calcutta. If it's more, or if Steve is about to land at Viz, then I'll instead retire while impeding the enemy as much as possible.

Anomalies: No additional information shed any light on the issue I raised above: India or Oz? KB remains parked off Sabang (a sub missed CA Maya). No enemy armor in India. That's odd. Also, that huge network of subs at Cocos has disappeared. There are no subs around Cocos and there are no subs infesting India. If he was coming, I'd expect him to be payng alot of attention to Colombo, Diego, Socatra and vicinity long since. But there are no subs around Oz, either. I'll position the reinforcement convoys somewhere south or southeast (true) of Diego. That will position them closer to India, which is still the "assumed target," but also not too distant from Oz.

China: The Chinese outside Changsha withstood a shock attack against a numerically superior foe. The Changsha sector is secure. Steve is trying to envelop the Sian sector from both east and west. Two divisions are confirmed in the mountains NE (true) of Lanchow. The Chinese are strung out covering about six hexes, which dilutes the strength a bit, but Steve has a vast army hung up in roadless mountain terrain, so he's not going anywhere fast.

North America: zzzzz. I don't think Steve can "REALLY" cross me up and hit the West Coast now, but I've given that possibility some thought.

Oz: Something's coming for Port Headland. The CL Boise and CL Mauritius TF will investigate tonight. CA Australia has to hang back and cover Exmouth while awaiting a replenishment TF. Her escorts are on fumes.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:13:22 PM

Cap Mandrake

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*************CR's cabin, back woods of Georgia, 0'dark 30**********

CR: <A breeze rustles some of the tarpaper on the outside of the shack. Abruptly, the proud owner sits upright, suddenly awake> CAPETOWN! THAT'S IT! HE'S GOING FOR CAPETOWN!

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 8/9/2012 4:14:02 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:22:23 PM

Mundy

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:32:21 PM

Canoerebel

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4/7/42

India: What the heck! The KB disappeared. This has my full attention. I'll try to find it. If necessary, I'll deploy some of my picket destroyers to the lanes between Cocos and Java. I've halted the reinforcement convoys - they are strung out from southeast of Cocos to southeast of Diego. We'll wait to see what's going on.

Oz: A sizeable force is heading for Port Headland, including what seems to be a carrier. Could be Junyo and Soryu. Boise and Mauritius tangled with CA Haguro. Boise went down (in an odd kind of reverse sync bog, the combat replay showed the Allies getting the better of that contest, but when I opened the turn file Boise was gone).

China: Now something like 18 IJN units are in the mountain hex. This is a "central position" from which they can go in a variety of directions, meaning I have to spread my troops out. With the mountain 3x defensive bonus, I think I can handle whichever way he comes. (This reminds me of my "Magical Mystery Tour" in my WitP match vs. John III some years ago, in which I had a truly massive armada scheduled to invade Iwo and vicinity. While I awaited arrival of his carriers, I kept moving my ships around, delaying in committing them for quite some time. That's what Steve is doing up in the mountains NE of Lanchow.) Steve has four divsions in the hex fronting Changsha, Siangtan and Hengyang, once again forcing me to spread my defenses, but I think that sector is going to be fine.

North America: A bunch of enemy subs popped up at Pearl Harbor, missed some shots at CL Phoenix, and sank two xAKL. Up near Anchorage, Allied subs sank an ACM and an xAK. York and Sara arrived on map and retrieved their fighter squadrons from LA. The divebombers and Devastators will take a few more days, as they had been posted at Vancouver to cover Coal Harbor. Still not sure where these two will go. Could remain in the Pacific to raid supply lines. Could head to Oz. Could head to the IO.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:34:08 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

*************CR's cabin, back woods of Georgia, 0'dark 30**********

CR: <A breeze rustles some of the tarpaper on the outside of the shack. Abruptly, the proud owner sits upright, suddenly awake> CAPETOWN! THAT'S IT! HE'S GOING FOR CAPETOWN!

Exactly!

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:42:56 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Well? That's it?

When should we check back for more info?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:44:40 PM

Canoerebel

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Things are happening pretty fast now, and we're flipping turns at a ridiculous rate, so you can check in hourly, if you wish.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:49:54 PM

BBfanboy

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Disappearance of his subs and then KB suggests that he may have spotted a reinforcement convoy and realized he needs to blockade the IO and/or threaten Oz to keep you pinned there. Or he could just be going for Oz after all!
I have to admit his actions are doing a good job of smoke-screening his master plan, but it is costing a lot of time that could be used for direct thrusts at his targets. Tick-tick-tick-tick ....

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:56:43 PM

paullus99

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Canoe's position is only going to get stronger - so if he doesn't make a bold move pretty quickly, that window of opportunity is going to close rapidly.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 4:57:43 PM

ny59giants

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Manchuria/Korea - Do you know where the following divisions are?? 1st, 8th, 9th or 20th. These four have the highest experience levels and might be somewhere that is important to him. These are 70 or above in experience levels and I rebuild the 20th in Korea and send to Luzon in many of my games.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 5:08:22 PM

Canoerebel

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Michael, thanks for some solid suggestions. Since I've never played Japan, and since I don't "study" the Japan side of things, I have pretty limited knowledge. Some years ago, I prepared a list of IJA divisons and where they start, but even that list has some holes in it. Of the four you listed, here's what I know:

1st Division is near Nanyang (east of Sian).
9th Div. is still on the Russian border according to recent SigInt.
8th Div. - unknown location
20th Div. - unknown location.

On the "Is it India or Oz" question, CA Hagura that showed up at Port Headland was in the Bay of Bengal two weeks ago. But I don't know whethere that's a telling shift of assets or just a pressing need for something big enough to handle Boise/Mauritius.

I just ran the replay (but don't have the turn file yet) and think I might've picked up the KB again - closer to Ceylon.

(in reply to ny59giants)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 5:18:15 PM

paullus99

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Well, if he's being cagey like that, he seems to want you to believe he's thinking about hitting somewhere else. I would suggest, the more he wants you believe he's shifting his attention, the more likely he is to continue to hit you where he is (i.e. India).

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 5:25:24 PM

Canoerebel

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The KB is the bellweather. He's got to use it against his ultimate target, whether that's India, Oz or North America. Any of these three cannot be successfully attacked if the Allies are free to bring in reinforcements (that doesn't apply to America as much, but in America he would need carriers to cover his LOC).

I hope, and I still think, India is his main target. I'm best prepared there and I am pretty confident I can defend it well.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 6:35:19 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/42

India: KB is ten hexes due SW (true) of Sabang on the same heading, as though Ceylon or points west are the target. The Allies will cautiously resume the movement of the reinforcements west. 18th UK Div. has the inside track, so I think I can get her in no matter where the KB goes. 27th USA Div. is much further back and will be positioned south of Cocos, awaiting further developments.

China: Waiting to see where Steve goes (or turns up) next. We still have good integrity on the MLR and no Chinese units to speak of have been roughed up since the beginning of the game. So China is doing okay.

NoPac: USN subs score two more kills - one near Toyohara and one near Kodiak. They've been rampaging the past several days. Sara and York will recover their strike aircraft tomorrow.

Oz: A landing at Port Headland is imminent. A small carrier is present.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 6:43:38 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The KB is the bellweather. He's got to use it against his ultimate target, whether that's India, Oz or North America.

Is there a fourth, fifth, or sixth option? Making a list like this can lead to a pre-formed conclusion.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 8/9/2012 8:14:13 PM

Canoerebel

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4/9/42

There are a multitude of options, but I'm focusing on the three that mean the most. Thus, for instance, Hawaii and New Zealand must stand alone.

India: The KB continues on a SW heading and is now 20 hexes NNW (true) of Cocos Island (but much closer to Ceylon and on that heading). The Allied carriers are five hexes WSW of Cocos, 22 hexes from the KB. They will move a few hexes close to Cocos. The 18th UK Div. transports are six hexes ESE of Cocos. The PoW and Repulse TF is west of Cochin. The RAF fighters are at Colombo and Addu. If the KB moves towards Cocos, the Allied carriers may make a stand with an assist from the RAF. Naturally, there's the concern that Steve might pull a carrier ambush, acting like he's coming with the same force when he actually has Kaga, Akagi and Junyo available.

China: Seven stout Chinese divisions converge in a wooded-rough hex NE of Sian and overwhelm two small Chinese infantry units. This will force me to contract my MLR once again and heightens the threat to Sian.

North America: Sara and York recover their strike aircraft. They will rendezvous with a replenishment TF while I consider where they will go. Other than that, quiet, except for more effective work by USN subs.

Oz: A small landing at Port Headland, strong enough to take the base. A small IJN carrier is just to the southwest.

Divison Reconciliation Update: 53rd, which starts at Osaka, and which recently moved to Tokyo, is now reported on marus bound for Mersing. By my count Japan has at least 35 divisions in China, including Kwantung army.

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