RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 2:45:25 PM

veji1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Part of the problem may be my style of play. Against both Q-Ball and PzH, both very experienced and aggressive players, I employed a very soft defense, trading real estate for time. I just wanted to make sure I lived to fight another day. But, unfortunately, playing so softly may incite an equal and oppositve level of boredom in a Japanese player. (But in May 1942????)

It's still possible this game will get back on track, so let's just leave it at this and wait a bit to see what comes of this. Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

I must say that from reading the AARs it was clear from QBalls point of view that the style of play issue played a role. Here the case might be different indeed.

What I would say is that to some extent this psychological "real life" aspect of the game, ie "do not play to much like the russians against Napoleon while waiting for all those 4Es and CVs or the jap player will get bored and quit" counterbalances the fact that there is no ingame mechanism to force the allies to make a stand and fight it short of menacing to topple India or Oz... That non existent constraint is in a sense replaced by that real life human aspect...

Not excusing PJH here (nor criticizing him, I don't know the situation), but for the ride to be enjoyable for both players there needs to be some fight going on. A Jap player feeling like he is chasing Shadows till late 42 and hasn't even sniffed an american CV until early 43 is bound to get demoralized.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 2:55:15 PM

Canoerebel

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Steve just sent a turn with an apology for being sporadic. So, we'll see how things go.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 2:59:19 PM

TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum

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Hopefully this game continues, I'm having fun watching the action from your side CR.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 3:12:48 PM

castor troy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: veji1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Part of the problem may be my style of play. Against both Q-Ball and PzH, both very experienced and aggressive players, I employed a very soft defense, trading real estate for time. I just wanted to make sure I lived to fight another day. But, unfortunately, playing so softly may incite an equal and oppositve level of boredom in a Japanese player. (But in May 1942????)

It's still possible this game will get back on track, so let's just leave it at this and wait a bit to see what comes of this. Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

I must say that from reading the AARs it was clear from QBalls point of view that the style of play issue played a role. Here the case might be different indeed.

What I would say is that to some extent this psychological "real life" aspect of the game, ie "do not play to much like the russians against Napoleon while waiting for all those 4Es and CVs or the jap player will get bored and quit" counterbalances the fact that there is no ingame mechanism to force the allies to make a stand and fight it short of menacing to topple India or Oz... That non existent constraint is in a sense replaced by that real life human aspect...

Not excusing PJH here (nor criticizing him, I don't know the situation), but for the ride to be enjoyable for both players there needs to be some fight going on. A Jap player feeling like he is chasing Shadows till late 42 and hasn't even sniffed an american CV until early 43 is bound to get demoralized.

I don't know if it would be enjoyable for me to engage in a fight I can't win, so I would rather move into a position where I actually can fight and WIN the fight. If this means there would be some "boring" months then be it.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 3:17:25 PM

TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum

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To springboard from what castor troy just said, it wasn't like you planned to never fight PzH. There were plenty of times you were prepared to commit your forces if he made that one extra push, but the push never materialized. So I wouldn't place too much blame on your style of play, if he read your AAR versus Q-Ball he knew what he was getting himself into as well as your mentality.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 3:53:55 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

I think a lot of Jap players have trouble coming to terms with the fact their advance has reached its limits......then it becomes a case of logistics and setting up defences for the Allied comeback which can be rather tedious. Then come late 43/early 44 if the Allies win the decisive CV battle.........quitsville for many.

So sad. Not really fair to play the good years and never give your opponent a chance to realize their plans.

Just to be fair, it should be pointed out that there are just as many Allied players who get pasted in 1942 and then vanish. It has always been a problem. I admire the Japanese players who can hang into 1945.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 4:06:51 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: veji1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Part of the problem may be my style of play. Against both Q-Ball and PzH, both very experienced and aggressive players, I employed a very soft defense, trading real estate for time. I just wanted to make sure I lived to fight another day. But, unfortunately, playing so softly may incite an equal and oppositve level of boredom in a Japanese player. (But in May 1942????)

It's still possible this game will get back on track, so let's just leave it at this and wait a bit to see what comes of this. Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

I must say that from reading the AARs it was clear from QBalls point of view that the style of play issue played a role. Here the case might be different indeed.

What I would say is that to some extent this psychological "real life" aspect of the game, ie "do not play to much like the russians against Napoleon while waiting for all those 4Es and CVs or the jap player will get bored and quit" counterbalances the fact that there is no ingame mechanism to force the allies to make a stand and fight it short of menacing to topple India or Oz... That non existent constraint is in a sense replaced by that real life human aspect...

Not excusing PJH here (nor criticizing him, I don't know the situation), but for the ride to be enjoyable for both players there needs to be some fight going on. A Jap player feeling like he is chasing Shadows till late 42 and hasn't even sniffed an american CV until early 43 is bound to get demoralized.

There shouldn't be a problem with this. Every player who takes up the Japanese side knows it's possible, and should have a contingency plan to keep them interested. China, for instance, is a place where the Japanese can focus energy no matter what the Allies choose to do.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 5:40:04 PM

Canoerebel

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5/10/42 and 5/11/42

Steve and I had a frank exchange of thoughts and it seems like he's committed to the game long term. That's very good news. I told him I don't mind "sporadic turns" as long as he just lets me know, within reason, when one might come or won't be coming. Here's where thing stand:

NoPac: A big unescorted Betty raid gets chewed up over Victoria. My lone-wolf destroyer should raid at Kodiak Island tonight.

Pacific: The Tarawa invasion TFs are making steady progress, but it's so far, and turns have come so slowly, that it seems like they'll NEVER make it. D-Day should be roughly 12 to 15 days off. A small TF will unload a US Army battalion at Ndeni tonight. No apparent detection of any of the various TFs moving about CenPac and SoPac right now.

Oz: Quiet. Still no obvious signs of a move on the Perth or Townsville sectors.

Indian Ocean: No imminent move on Cocos Island detected. Right now that base has about 275 AV. I'd like to bump that up pretty soon, though finding units is tough. Diego Garcia could also use a boost. Socatra should be pretty secure until I can see where Steve sends those seven divisions recently at Singers. If they come for Socatra, it's time to "gulp." If they go elsehwere, Socatra is out of danger and I can move all but perhaps 100 AV forward. Most of that would go to Diego and Ceylon. The latter is totally empty except for support troops.

India: The Allies are actively building airfields at Ranchi and Patna, the airfields west of Japan's Calcutta MLR. The former is a level three, the latter a level two. Each can be built up to nine. The Allies have a pretty stout airforce in India.

China: The Chinese have pulled out of Lanchow and are working on the new MLR in the rough-woods to the southeast (true). Still no obvious sign of the expected IJ move on Chengte or Changsha, but I'm moving more units that way. I think they'll be needed eventually. There are some real weaknesses to the Chinese MLR now, but thus far it is pretty much intact and no decisively crippling blow has yet been administered.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 9:38:00 PM

Q-Ball

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Losing Lanchow, though, is a bad blow to your supply situation, isn't it? Because that negates any supplies from HI production at Chungking and that other city, because they don't have a fuel source now

With NE India taken, no help via airlift either

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 9:42:30 PM

Canoerebel

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Right. I held it for as long as I could and until my army there was threatened with being cut off. So, I succeed in not getting my army mauled, but I fall further back. I'm Johnson retiring before Sherman. We all know how that ended - Johnson gets replaced by Hood. Will I get replaced by John III?

I think there is going to be a stiff battle in NE India in coming months as the Allies attempt to reclaim a way to supply China by air. That's good terrain to fight over, though, as the Allies can bring the full weight of the army and airforce to bear. I like that idea.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 9:52:15 PM

Ingtar

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Due to retreats, are you going to end up with too many mouths to feed in China?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/4/2012 10:32:37 PM

modrow

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Right. I held it for as long as I could and until my army there was threatened with being cut off. So, I succeed in not getting my army mauled, but I fall further back. I'm Johnson retiring before Sherman. We all know how that ended - Johnson gets replaced by Hood. Will I get replaced by John III?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 12:04:10 AM

princep01

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Glad you guys could reach an understanding regarding the turn production. It's too interesting a tale to slowly fade away.

Question CR: Remind me what the "lone DD" raid on Kodiak is all about? What do you hope to learn?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 1:50:15 AM

JeffroK

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IMVHO, it is an attempt to keep PJH honest, making him invest in escorts for his convoys, maybe have to mine some ports. The effort in running supplies across 2/3rd of the world might stretch the rubber band a bit too far.

Next time might be a SS pack working in the north.

If you keep nipping at the edges you might create an opportunity for a bigger outcome.

If not, you lose a DD or an SS

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 6:25:15 AM

Cribtop

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quote:

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Right. I held it for as long as I could and until my army there was threatened with being cut off. So, I succeed in not getting my army mauled, but I fall further back. I'm Johnson retiring before Sherman. We all know how that ended - Johnson gets replaced by Hood. Will I get replaced by John III?

+1,000,000

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 8:46:05 AM

Alfred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Part of the problem may be my style of play. Against both Q-Ball and PzH, both very experienced and aggressive players, I employed a very soft defense, trading real estate for time. I just wanted to make sure I lived to fight another day. But, unfortunately, playing so softly may incite an equal and oppositve level of boredom in a Japanese player. (But in May 1942????)

It's still possible this game will get back on track, so let's just leave it at this and wait a bit to see what comes of this. Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

Not a convincing case to justify a reduced interest from a Japanese player.

My personnal view, based on the last VP screenshot provided, is that your opponent believes that he has already created the conditions for an auto victory on 1 January 1943 and therefore views the remaining seven months as a tedious wait.

Alfred

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 9:31:44 AM

Canoerebel

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I don't think that's what's ailing PzH. I could be wrong, but I think his malaise stems from something else. I don't know whether it's game or non-game related.

I am not a micro analyst of victory point conditions, as I'm sure Alfred can tell. I'm playing more by the seat of my pants. I haven't looked into the minutae of whether Steve has cobbled together the formula to win on points. I don't think so, at least not yet.

My general feeling is that the Allies are at present in good position everywhere except China (which is a major "except"). The current situation may deteriorate, though, as Steve should remain on offense for a couple more months. By early autumn, though, the Allies are strong enough to really begin to push back in a meaningful way. Of course, I intend to push a bit earlier if I can.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 2:10:30 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think that's what's ailing PzH. I could be wrong, but I think his malaise stems from something else. I don't know whether it's game or non-game related.

I am not a micro analyst of victory point conditions, as I'm sure Alfred can tell. I'm playing more by the seat of my pants. I haven't looked into the minutae of whether Steve has cobbled together the formula to win on points. I don't think so, at least not yet.

My general feeling is that the Allies are at present in good position everywhere except China (which is a major "except"). The current situation may deteriorate, though, as Steve should remain on offense for a couple more months. By early autumn, though, the Allies are strong enough to really begin to push back in a meaningful way. Of course, I intend to push a bit earlier if I can.

As I am reading both sides I am unable to really comment on Alfred's points or your response. I would only invite your attention to the variant VP effect of losing men in each of the Japanese and Allied rule sets. When you begin to "push back" ground gained with associated VP gains are not the only auto-vic considerations. "Expensive" ground gained hurts the Allies more, outside of Chinese and Soviet areas.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 9/5/2012 2:16:10 PM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 2:40:01 PM

Canoerebel

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What?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 2:41:39 PM

obvert

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What is the VP situation now and what plans do you have to take back areas of high VP value?

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 2:52:00 PM

Canoerebel

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I'll have to look at the file later today, but I think it's something like 27k to 8k. That's nothing remarkable in and of itself. I think at this point in my game with Q-Ball he probably had a 4:1 ratio. But the Allies began reclaiming points in a pretty serious way beginning around September of 1942.

Steve should be able to gain points in two ways: building some of the high-value bases he's taken (Calcutta and Anchorage, for instance) and by liquidating the Chinese army over time.

But he's got problems too. The Allies should be able to fight pretty effectively in India and will begin pressing forward elsewhere.

It's still very early to begin counting Victory Points. Too much can happen. And it seems like Steve would be pressing further hoping perhaps to get a few other high value locations like Noumea and Fiji and perhaps some in Oz and Ceylon and India. He's not showing much aggressiveness right now, as though his repeated comments that he's transitioning to the defensive are true.

In my game with Q-Ball, several readers kept saying, "You're in trouble from a VP standpoint." I knew I wasn't and I was right. I feel the same way in this game at this point, though I admit it's possible Steve has done a thorough VP calculation, while I'm flying more by the seat of my pants.

But right now I just don't see it happening.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 2:56:17 PM

Canoerebel

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The lone DD raid in NoPac serves three purposes:

1) testing Steve's perimter (we've already visited Kodiak without incident, showing that he's not paying attention back here; tomorrow we visit Cold Bay; the day after we'll try Dutch Harbor).

2) the DD, if discovered, will add another element to the "interest" I'm giving to NoPac - I really want Steve focused there short term while I move on the Tarawa group. I've done a variety of small things in the past week to whisper "NoPac" in his ears.

3) there is always the chance that the destroyer will engage a nice transport TF.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 3:05:19 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The lone DD raid in NoPac serves three purposes:

1) testing Steve's perimter (we've already visited Kodiak without incident, showing that he's not paying attention back here; tomorrow we visit Cold Bay; the day after we'll try Dutch Harbor).

2) the DD, if discovered, will add another element to the "interest" I'm giving to NoPac - I really want Steve focused there short term while I move on the Tarawa group. I've done a variety of small things in the past week to whisper "NoPac" in his ears.

3) there is always the chance that the destroyer will engage a nice transport TF.

Yet more evidence that, contrary to your protestations, you really do play a bit of a "mental game" with your opponent. Not critisizing at all - it's an essential part of any war plan - make your enemy think you could show up everywhere. PzJH has been doing it with you for some time now and it's his turn to start fretting!

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 3:07:01 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What?

The VP loss per Chinese ground trooper is lowest. Maybe 1 to 10?

The VP loss per Japanese ground trooper is middle. Maybe 1 to 4?

The VP loss per US, UK, Aus, NZ, etc. ground trooper is highest. Maybe 1 to 1?

I am not certain about all the various Allies, perhaps Indian, Burmese etc. are not 1 to 1?

Going from memory and not totally certain.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 3:51:17 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What?

If you use US troops to take a 1000 VP base, but lose 4000 men doing it, you've moved closer to losing by auto-vic. Consult the Victory conditions portion of the manual; the Japanese have a large VP advantage in device casualty effects over US, British, Indian, Aussie, etc. forces. The only place they don't is in Chinese and Filipino forces. The Sovets are equal to Japanese rules.

The key to auto-vic is ratios, not absolute totals. In the air war, for example, you don't gain or lose against him unless the heavy bomber versus other type ratio is unbalanced between you (and even then he has unlimited and you have fixed pools, so it's complicated.) In ships it matters most what types are sunk and less how many, within a quantity distribution. It's possible to sink so many low-mix that the numbers overcome missing all of the heavy combatants, but it's unlikley you can do this.

So, the key for an Allied player skating near losing by auto-vic is to look for ways to skew the ratios in your favor. Looking at the rules alone and not bringing in anything relevant from PH's AAR, two options for you might be to look to kill Japanese troops in the open countryside of China, even at occassional loss ratios of 1:2. If you can use infantry to kill pure devices like AA or base units so much the better for your risk profile. But China is a place where you can bleed Japan of VPs in an acceptable way if you stay away from city sieges and husband your Chinese supply in such a way as the best bleeders get the most support.

A second way in your specific game (and here I'll be a broken record) is to go crazy with your subs. Each has a relatively low VP risk if lost, and in May 1942 you will lose very, very few even if you do "crazy" things like harbor penetration. But a low-VP sub can reap many multiples of its value even if sinking xAKLs and other low-mix crap. With non-dud fish you could easily come back several thousand VPs before 1943 heaves into view, if you use your subs appropriately for the era and dud state you have in hand.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 9/5/2012 3:53:18 PM >

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 3:57:10 PM

Canoerebel

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Here's the Victory Point breakdown as of the current turn (5/12/42):

IJ Points: 23,397
Allied pts: 7,836

IJ Bases: 10,218
Allied bs: 4,217

IJ Air Pts: 1,979
Allied Pts: 1,410

IJ Army Pts: 9,002
Allied Pts: 711

IJ Ship Pts: 1,883
Allied Pts: 1,156

Only in manpower does Japan have anything close to or above the necessary 4:1 ratio for auto victory. Over the coming seven months, I think the margins should become increasingly positive for the Allies in aircraft and shipping. For manpower and bases, it probably won't change a whole bunch.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 4:02:19 PM

Canoerebel

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Bullwinkle, thanks for expanding on the point you were making. Now I understand completely.

I understand the ratio aspect. As you can see from my previous post, I look at enemy shipping and aircraft as the most favorable ways to keep the ratio effectively whittled below 4:1. I hadn't thought of the ground war in China specifically as a ratio thing, but I'll certainly look for opportunities to hurt Japan. (Right now, Japan is on the offensive and the Chinese are holding their own in each battle, so that in itself is helpful.)

I haven't mentioned Allied subs very much, but they've been very effective in the game to date. They are scoring frequently - mostly against merchant shipping in the Gulf of Alaska, around Sikhalin Island, and in the Andaman Sea. My subs around Korea, Japan and the Philippines have been pretty quiet, with occasional successes.

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 4:06:10 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle, thanks for expanding on the point you were making. Now I understand completely.

That's good. China is perhaps the greatest riddle in the game, optimization-wise. There are just so many ways to go there, for each side.

I can't say more without stepping out of OPSEC bounds.

Good luck!

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RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 4:10:08 PM

Canoerebel

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A month ago in game times, I jumped at a chance to send 4,300 Chinese AV against 1,600 Japanese AV in the open. Steve massed his airforce and disrupted my army badly, so the ensuing attack failed. Then my troops got mauled by his airforce on their retreat. Overall, the campaign was a disaster, seriously weakening my Changsha-sector MLR.

I say this only to point out that it is very, very difficult for the Chinese to attack right now. They are probably better off conserving strength and fighting in the rough-woods and mountain hexes as much as possible....but always looking and hoping that Steve might eventually make a mistake that allows me to rough up some of his troops, as the Chinese maanaged to do several times early in the game.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 1169

RE: War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A) - 9/5/2012 4:20:55 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A month ago in game times, I jumped at a chance to send 4,300 Chinese AV against 1,600 Japanese AV in the open. Steve massed his airforce and disrupted my army badly, so the ensuing attack failed. Then my troops got mauled by his airforce on their retreat. Overall, the campaign was a disaster, seriously weakening my Changsha-sector MLR.

I say this only to point out that it is very, very difficult for the Chinese to attack right now. They are probably better off conserving strength and fighting in the rough-woods and mountain hexes as much as possible....but always looking and hoping that Steve might eventually make a mistake that allows me to rough up some of his troops, as the Chinese maanaged to do several times early in the game.

If it was easy and just anybody could do it, Honey Boo Boo would be on the case!!

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1170

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