Calculating Battle odds

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All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> Advanced Tactics Series >> The War Room >> Calculating Battle odds

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Calculating Battle odds - 5/4/2012 8:37:29 AM

LazyBoy

Posts: 190
Joined: 5/7/2005
Status: offline

I would like to know how people work out if an attack will succeed.

I used the stack numbers displayed when setting up the battle and thought they were odds.
Now that I know they are not

, I have no idea on how to work out my chances of winning a battle

Post #: 1

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 5/4/2012 4:35:38 PM

Krafty

Posts: 395
Joined: 3/26/2010
Status: offline

6 to 1 (they have 20 power points/combat value, you have 120 or more) will usually mean you take next to no casualties.

3 to 1 is about an even chance to win or lose depending on the content of both sides divisions.

Less than that its not worth it. Use artillery, and bombers, to soften things up before you attack.

(in reply to LazyBoy)

Post #: 2

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 5/4/2012 7:42:45 PM

Josh

Posts: 2576
Joined: 5/9/2000
From: Leeuwarden, Netherlands
Status: offline

Me I don't look at numbers, I look at where is what. And maybe most important; the green bar, you can read that as "will to fight".
With "where is what" I mean the right equipment in the right environment can be hard to beat.
Inf in the open with no AT gun/armourprotection? Dead meat for your panzers or Artillery. Enemy armour in hills and woods with no Inf. protection? Dead meat for your AT troops. No matter how large your opponent's force is, the moment you see its green bars decreasing (because of bombardment or lack of supplies) he will be ripe for the plucking.
So vice versa, Inf holed up in hills/forests with their "health" bars at max, can be hard to beat in a direct assault. It can be done if you outnumber him though, like Kraftwerk says, say 3-6 times is a good guess. I'd rather encircle such a well dug in unit, then bomb the sh*t out of him, rinse and repeat a few times, then he's yours without taking too many casualties yourself.
To give an example; say four tanks (so no tankriders or recon cars included) face 40 Inf (no AT guns there); the tanks will most likely kill most of the Inf, say 20-25 before running out of actionpoints. Now when those tanks face that same unit in a forest, most likely 2 tanks will blow up for the loss of 15-20 Inf.
Now placing those four tanks against that same fourty Inf in the open, but give that tank unit some armoured cars, so 4 tanks and 4-6 recon cars, will most likele result in the destruction of that Inf. unit.
Again placing that fourty Inf unit in a forest but now with 4 AT guns and some bazookas will result in the loss of 2-3 tanks and 2-3 recon cars before the rounds end.
So no number crunching on my side, cause I hate that

,but more "what feels right"... well sort of.

(in reply to Krafty)

Post #: 3

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 5/5/2012 11:14:27 PM

Meanfcker

Posts: 307
Joined: 12/4/2011
Status: offline

Once again, Josh and Kraft both give fine answers. I sort of combine what they both say and then I overstack.
I don't claim to know my odds, but I try to hit with enough hit points that I can get out of the combat early. I might take a couple of extra losses, but I can get out of most combats by round 5 or 6. This lets my attackers back up to their staging area. Occasionally I get caught, but overstacking helps assure you don't run out of ap's. Between 150 and 180 seems to be the sweetspot.

(in reply to Josh)

Post #: 4

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 6/12/2012 8:26:57 PM

Jeffrey H.

Posts: 3154
Joined: 4/13/2007
From: San Diego, Ca.
Status: offline

Also, I always try to maximize encirclement, keep an eye on morale end experience differences. The numbers are more or less unreliable predictors of a combat result. On top of all that there is a random "die roll" effect to consider.

At times I wish there was a more explicitly predictable scheme for combat odds. But there are also times, (like when I'm on the beer) where I kind of just smash things together and see what happens.

_____________________________

History began July 4th, 1776. Anything before that was a mistake.

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(in reply to Meanfcker)

Post #: 5

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 6/15/2012 2:48:57 PM

Strategiusz

Posts: 236
Joined: 9/13/2008
From: Upper Silesia, Poland
Status: offline

At times I wish an external battle simulator for this game.

_____________________________

(in reply to Jeffrey H.)

Post #: 6

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 6/16/2012 1:56:45 AM

LazyBoy

Posts: 190
Joined: 5/7/2005
Status: offline

I would like to see the combat sim made available during the game.
I don't know how accurate it is but could be modified to give an reasonable indication without taking all uncertainty away.

I have been playing xxlarge games and to put all the work into it only to have a few extreme random results ruin the game sucks.

(in reply to Strategiusz)

Post #: 7

RE: Calculating Battle odds - 8/27/2012 12:14:38 AM

CSO_Talorgan