Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

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ORIGINAL: veji1

I think CrSutton underestimates the impact of stacking limits. With Stacking limits Greyjoy's strategy is the right one. It is manpower intensive though, but normally to break through in on hex, the allies will need a few weeks of attack and that gives enough time to retreat. As often with Burma the problem is that as soon as the jungle is abandoned, the plains are lost.

Of course the back door has to be protected, but it looks to be the case, at least as much as possible.

I really think stacking limits makes forward defense in rough terrain in Burma the most sensible strategy, and a viable one for quite some time.

You are right, I forgot about the stacking limits and how they affect combat. But Pegu is open terrain is it not? Could the Allies put four divisions ashore there along with strong tank support? I would if it could be done....But GJ is pretty good at reading Q-Ball so his own intel is important. If the Allies are not shifting assets to India-meaning lots of American units and assault ships, then he is fairly safe for a while.

Well, yes, probably if he lands 90,000 men at Pegu he can break my lines... but he first needs to get there. The US CVs were in the Solomons untill 6 days ago. All his landing ships are there AFAIK...most of them anyway. My early warning system is pretty extended by now. I have more than 54 Nells and 18 Emilies, along with some 8 Dinah-IIIs covering the whole Bengal Bay and with arcs from Colombo to Cocos... i will see him coming with not less than 4-5 days. What can i do in those 5 days? Well, i can mass all my LBA reserves, even moving a lot of planes from the Pacific and i can strat rail 1 division in reserve at Mandalay. Not much, i know, but what shall i do? Probably 90,000 americans aren't stoppable in open terrain even if i had 5 divisions...and i cannot have 5 divisions dug in in every possible landing site.
I wouldn't choose Pegu if i was him. Western Sumatra is much more interesting and it's on the border of my defensive line, not in the middle!

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Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?

How long did it take to sail from Pearl with that Armada in 'Suddenly Hairy?' Well over a month, right?

So what you need are some forces in place, some in reserve, bases built with forts as high as possible, and enough air support to move stuff from the HI to thwart whatever comes. But more than anything you need eyes in the deep Central Pacific. A few pickets, some Emilys from the Aleutians and Marcus, maybe even an AV with Jakes sitting in the blind spot between, waiting. Rader made the mistake of not seeing you on the way. His reception would have been much more prepared if he had a few weeks notice.

No Japanese player can put enough back there to stop 10+ supported divisions landing, but if you can take a few out on the way in, there is a chance to slow that invasion enough to fight back.

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ORIGINAL: ItsAMadhouse

As Japan you will never do enough because you're so outnumbered. You don't have enough to cover everywhere so it's up to you to judge your opponent and his intentions so you can slow him down. Also you have to prioritize the areas that must be defended.

Joe

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Great game, GJ! Hang in there. I think Q will gobble up the Bougainville/Rabaul/Lae area, then be faced with more difficult choices of what to do next, as you suggest. Sounds like you will be ready when he does. If he continues to try for the DEI, expect him to choose to work his way up the NG coast to support his flank and threaten your shortest SLoC to Japan. If he abandons the DEI moves, expect him to work through the Marshalls aiming at the Kusaie triangle (Kus, Ponape and Eniwetok). Finally, as you suggest don't be surprised if he adds a third prong in Western Sumatra.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

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ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Yeah, using P38s for escorts? Thats the same as giving them away! Bonkers!

Never use them for escort. Much better to put them on LRCAP over the target hex if you can. That is of course, only if you are playing one day turns not two.

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop

From Brad's perspective, there is a lot to like in a Sumatra invasion. It opens a new route into the DEI, there are lots of bases in Sumatra to develop, and geography makes it hard for the IJN to do in and out style attacks. Remember that Brad is the author of the theory that the Allied strategic objectives are to cut off or capture the Oil and get a base in range for strat bombing Japan.

PS I concur that he is planning his next big move in this lull. Think about places he can invade with xAPs since he lost so many APA/AKA. Again, thinking that way he seems to have the choice of plugging away around Rabaul or hitting Sumatra. Java is possible but from his perspective riskier for various reasons.

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Remember that Brad is the author of the theory that the Allied strategic objectives are to cut off or capture the Oil and get a base in range for strat bombing Japan.

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop

That said, the point is this is his playbook, he is sure to follow it.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.

That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Perhaps, but my recollection of Brad's adherence to this strategy arises from reading a very long and detailed post in which he effectively stated those are the two strategic considerations for the Allies in every game, and that the Japanese strategic considerations are to stop them from occurring (he had a third concept for the Japanese, can't remember what it was).

Obviously, he's a skilled player, but IIRC from that post he considered these strategic imperatives fundamental. Further, if you look at his actions in his game against Cuttlefish, he popularized the Darwin-Timor axis of attack, which I believe was his way to add a corollary to "cut off the oil," effectively making it "cut off or destroy/recapture the oil." Finally, his actions in this game arguably track this strategy. We see a big push out of Darwin directly toward the DEI. GJ blunted this move pretty well, so he shifts to a Cartwheel approach on Rabaul. This sets up a move along the coast of NG toward the PI, which arguably is a move away from "take the oil" and back to "cut off the oil." As part of these moves, his CVs disappear and we contemplate he may go for Sumatra, which considered with his other moves to date, looks a lot like "pincer the oil, force GJ to pick his poison, but either way we get the oil box checked off." This is why I speculate that, if he doesn't move to re-invigorate the DEI offensive soon by hitting Sumatra or using CVs near Saumlaki, we may see a move on the Gilberts. Such a move would be the beginning of objective no. 2, get a base in range of the Home Islands for strat bombing. NOPAC cannot be ruled out in this context either, but I suspect Brad will correctly assume that GJ, Lord of the Kuriles, will have those covered and at most feint up here.

The more interesting question, IMHO, would be what GJ can derive from Brad's strategic moves to date and the counters which would impact Brad's grand strategy, assuming GJ at all agrees with my analysis.

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.

That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?

Not all of them were in bad shape. Most of the naval base forces i extracted are in perfect shape for example and are now doing their job back at Saipan, Guam, Tinian, Bab or Biak.


Guys, it all depends on how much Brad is willing to risk a bold move like the one on Western Sumatra.
He's not late in his race scheldue. It's the end of august 1943 and the allies have already conquered the whole SOPAC theatre and have estabilished the first tiny foothold in the southern DEI. He may simply get advancing along those two parallel vectors, without risking an "hail mary" jump.

My KB is still intact. 12 CVs, 5 CVLs and 4 CVEs. Still a mighty force even if, by now, with all those essex class CVs, he has reached the parity in terms of strengh.
However a jump deep into my lines, far away from his LBA, will expose his landings both to my LBAs and to those 12+CV/CVLs... If i was the allied player i'm not that sure i would feel so confident in that kind of operation.
To do it he should be sure that i'm way out of position when he arrives...
Also, strategically, i on pourpose haven't built any of the bases in the chain of islands west of Sumatra. Not a single one of them. Just forts. Why? Because when (and if) he lands i wanna force his CVs to be the only air cover for his invasion fleet, so to pinn them down. There isn't a possible worse situation for a CVTF that to be bound to an invasion fleet without the chance of moving not to leave the fleet without a proper cover.

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.

That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?

Not all of them were in bad shape. Most of the naval base forces i extracted are in perfect shape for example and are now doing their job back at Saipan, Guam, Tinian, Bab or Biak.


Guys, it all depends on how much Brad is willing to risk a bold move like the one on Western Sumatra.
He's not late in his race scheldue. It's the end of august 1943 and the allies have already conquered the whole SOPAC theatre and have estabilished the first tiny foothold in the southern DEI. He may simply get advancing along those two parallel vectors, without risking an "hail mary" jump.

My KB is still intact. 12 CVs, 5 CVLs and 4 CVEs. Still a mighty force even if, by now, with all those essex class CVs, he has reached the parity in terms of strengh.
However a jump deep into my lines, far away from his LBA, will expose his landings both to my LBAs and to those 12+CV/CVLs... If i was the allied player i'm not that sure i would feel so confident in that kind of operation.
To do it he should be sure that i'm way out of position when he arrives...
Also, strategically, i on pourpose haven't built any of the bases in the chain of islands west of Sumatra. Not a single one of them. Just forts. Why? Because when (and if) he lands i wanna force his CVs to be the only air cover for his invasion fleet, so to pinn them down. There isn't a possible worse situation for a CVTF that to be bound to an invasion fleet without the chance of moving not to leave the fleet without a proper cover.

Aye. You're in a great defensive position. Good work, mate.

Just a caveat for thought: Brad's geographic holdings may be historical, but his losses and your ability to defend in depth are not. He's taken SoPac in part because you have 'let him'. The Japanese IRL elected to fight forward and attrit themselves and their ability to resist in depth. You have not sacrificed the latter on the alter of the former.

So, even though your opponent has historical-ish ground to show for his progress, you've exacted a staggering toll and are in a very strong position relative to historical. He's in a weaker position than historical, IMO and dancing to your tune still. Very nice.

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ORIGINAL: goran007

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.

Grey, I beg you, when you locate his CV's or even if you don't know where they are but he undergoes some major operation in prob. Rabaul area, counterattack and expell him from Saumlaki. Just consider how much time and more important resources it took to land and how much more dangerous it would be for him to land again. Also consider that Saumlaki is a knife in to your hart (oil). You really have no option but to retake it.

Start prep. 2 divisions + 2 tanks for it, but first land naval support. Saumlaki is still in your hands so landing would be easy but do try to recapture that base near it too (he landed on undefended dot if i recall). (optional)

You did wonders in Saumlaki areas, try to do it again. Do not spare your cargo ships, you don't need them really, better to use them now then sit them in port and loose them eventually to some strategic attack.

Your divisions are also better used for counterattacking than sitting in in places like rabaul area where they are just bypassed, isolated and starved.

anyway well done m8, its a great read.

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ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I would concur and further add that I would agree with your assessment that a Gilberts/Marshalls move would on some level play into your hands. However I think we would all agree that it is the least likely move Brad will make. I also concur that GJ is attending to the likely avenues of approach well and has retained capabilities that IRL Japan had already lost by now. His inner perimeter will be hard to crack. Thus, if I was you, GJ, I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.

With that, we know Brad doesn't need his CVs to continue to move up the NG coast, and he is too good to misallocate his most valuable naval assets. The question therefore is what he will do in the interim. IMHO Sumatra is still the most likely bet. No matter what happens, though, this is a great match and you have grown as a player. Kudos.