Bullwinkle58
Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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December 12, 1941
The Hawaiian Plot thickens . . . I'm Happy . . . Mama Said There'd Be Days Like This
Night Phase
1) Just what IS the North American record for ASW attacks? This turn might have exceeded it. I stopped counting, but it had to be 15+, mostly around Pearl. Lots of rattling and shaking, but no penetrating hits. He expended round after round of fish for no hits, so my evil plot is working. The gaggle west of Lanai hasn't moved. Starting to wonder if this is a game artifact.
2) Landings underway continue underway. Davao, Guam, etc.
3) Two new large surface TFs are noted in the DEI. One a CL and seven DDs, which sink AS Otus near Guiuan (I was hoping to use her at Brisbane), and the other, more significant
BB Nagato
BB Fuso
BB Ise
BB Hyuga
CL Yura
DD Wakatake
DD Sanae
which combine to sink a lowly xAKL refugee near Babel-de-bob, and later two more near Siargao during the day. This indicates a southerly course and these guys may be headed toward Borneo to cause me trouble. Perhpas a rearm stop at Babel-de-bob first.
These together with the two BBs with the KB and I have most of them semi-located. The CAs seem to be primarily in the S. China Sea and with the KB. He seems to not mind mixing in CLs with BBs, a code tactic I'm not sure works well, but I could be wrong. So far he doesn't mix CLs and CAs at all from what I recall.
Day Phase
1) Sweeps at Clark result in 4:5 loss ratio for the Japanese. These have slowed, possibly due to fatigue and need for repairs. My P-40s are nearly spent; no replacements will be attempted in the PI. For the third or fourth day he does an Oscar sweep at Kuantan which has no Allied aircraft and never has. This could be for training.
2) Unescorted Betty attacks on the resting DD TF at Manila, bombs mixed with torps, 6 each, then another on PTs at Manila, bombs. No hits on either. My CAP was down from the sweeps or this could have been costly.
3) China bombing mostly ineffectual; I think he's too high for the training level. About even split HK and road troops. Where he hits I take 30-50 disabled, no KIA squads. Also two Nate naval attacks at 100 feet in west Malaysia, bomb and strafe, on HDML pipsqueaks. 1 shell hit. These guys are there as sortie bait only, so they're working. But it's good to see Nate pilots earning their rice ball.
4) My "maximum effort" PI Cats on naval has mixed results. One falls to flak, two damaged. They mix bombs with torps, even though torps are well-stocked at Manila. One torp duds, one bomb hits XAK at Legsapi. In second attack torp finds XAK for fire and heavy damage. I will return the Cats to search, as my Dutch subs need help and I suspect the war will come to Tarakan soon. I will consider at least one more Cat strike before the final hours.
5) In my happiest moment of the day I recieve this:
Morning Air attack on Miri , at 64,87
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 9
No Allied losses
Oil hits 8
8000 supply to be hauled in, a reduction in production for a bit. I really didn't expect the Forts to fly. The red vector aimed right back at Batavia, so I expect a reaction of some kind. I need to decide how to play the Forts, as I did buy out 8 more last turn to Batavia. I'm not sure what he can do in the next five turns or so, but after that who knows? I would like to knock down about 50 points of Oil at Miri and Brunei if possible. He has a lot to spare in Scen 2, but every bit lost helps me.
6) Other day air activity is sweeps at Clark (1:2 Japan), Betty attack at crippled AMs/PG at Cebu (all three will be toast), and yet another unescorted Betty attack on the Manila DDs. This time there are P-40s but they do not attack. Seagulls fly and hit with two mini-bombs on unloading AP at Legsapi.
7) One air action is concerning. At Johnson Island I get:
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Johnston Island at 165,111
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 6
B5M1 Mabel x 4
No Japanese losses
Allied Ships
AM Robin, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
As below, this is precursor to landings at Johnson I. The red attack vector was at about 300 degrees, a direction the KB could easily be at. Recall I had Mabel attacks at PH. Further, I don't think any active IJN CV, CVL, or CVE starts with a Mabel air group, and in Scen 2 he has about 120 Kates in the pools. So what's this? Did he swap out Mabels for Kates just to use them up? The PC Taney sighting action showed the "traditional" KB (photo up thread), but it's possible he could have stashed a CVL TF with grounded planes off to the NW of PH. Or, he could have split off the Mabel-carrying CV from the KB, maybe with a buddy or three, sent half to Truk, and half to circle around to the west to support a Johnson I. invasion, with the troops being that radio intel sniff I got three days ago.
So, again, what was this attack? Mabels on naval attack he forgot about? A coincidence, with the KB en masse leaving the area? Bait for my two at-sea CVs, which I don't think he has a sighting on?
This is important because of . . .
8) Pre-Invasion action off Johnston Island (164,112) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
32 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
CM Okinoshima, Shell hits 1
CM Tokiwa, Shell hits 1
xAK Tenyo Maru
DD Yunagi
PB Nagata Maru
xAK Kamikaze Maru
Japanese ground losses:
38 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
From later intel it looks like a SNLF and a Naval Guard Unit. The CMs are essentially cruisers, enough for Johnson.
But why? How does a landing here help him? It's too close to Hawaii to last unless it's part of something bigger. Without multi-base support he can't put enough LBA there to close Pearl. Is it pure bait? My CVs are about due east of Christmas Island, fairly low on fuel. I have a lone 10,000 pt. replenishmnet ship heading in from San Diego; it's all I have at the moment and it doesn't buy much station keeping. Do I go up and challenge this landing and then run like the devil? Or do I refuse the bait and see if another shoe will drop in the Hawaiian Islands in the next week?
Another possibility, lower probability IMO, is this is a way to blind Johnson so he can land on Christmas I. with that TF I sniffed, and the Johnson landing force was a due-east TF I never saw at all in the middle of the fuss at PH. Taking Christmas helps him a lot more IMO, if he thinks I have to run E-W log runs ot Oz. He can back-fill Tarawa, Makin, Canton, and Baker in the coming weeks at his leisure. If that's the case I would be better served leaving my CVs near Christmas to guard that landing. This depends on him not knowing I got that intel sniff. So, decisions, decisions. I also still have not moved Saratoga from San Diego, but she has but one DD available for escort right now.
9) Amphibious Assault at Johnston Island (164,112) Fails
TF 15 troops unloading over beach at Johnston Island, 164,112
Japanese ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
17 troops of a SNLF Squad lost from landing craft during unload of 51st Nav Gd /2
Ground combat at Johnston Island (164,112)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 1419 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 58
Defending force 1022 troops, 14 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 18
Japanese adjusted assault: 15
Allied adjusted defense: 22
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)
Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-)
Japanese ground losses:
79 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Allied ground losses:
34 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Assaulting units:
51st Naval Guard Unit
Defending units:
Johnston USN CPNAB
Johnston (Det.) Defense Battalion
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Ground combat at Johnston Island (164,112)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 548 troops, 14 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 15
Defending force 1360 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 51
Assaulting units:
Johnston USN CPNAB
Johnston (Det.) Defense Battalion
Defending units:
51st Naval Guard Unit
10) Landings begin at Laoag in the PI. My guess is this spreads out the port load. He seems to be coming all-in for the PI.
11) Japanese Shock Attack near Pengpu. I lose "only" 312 and 37 squads KIA. At 182 to 1 odds it could be worse.
12) Mama Said . . . .
Hong Kong falls.
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1
Japanese adjusted assault: 458
Allied adjusted defense: 137
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Hong Kong !!!
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
450 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
5612 casualties reported
Squads: 240 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 465 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 188 (188 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 93 (93 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 6
Guam falls
Japanese adjusted assault: 46
Allied adjusted defense: 9
Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 1)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Guam !!!
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
457 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 59 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 21 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 35 (35 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1
(USS Penguin lives, continues her lonely way east.)
Assessment:
1) I understand all of his moves everywhere except Hawaii. I would not have forecast he would go radical there in a no-HR game. One thing I don't know is what his FOW shows about PH damage. Several of the BBs could fight today, and two are about two weeks at pierside from being safe enough to risk. I have my cruisers on Critical in the shipyard, which itself is at 88 and under repair. I would have expected a rapid move on Rangoon and a battle for NE India. Or something else. If Johnson I. is a bait operation, fine. If it's an opening move in a combined anti-Hawaii move I need to reassess NorPac reenforcments, as well as what I send to CT.
2) It will be interesting to see what he does about the threat to his oil fields, if it brings an acceleration in east Borneo, or perhaps even a deep assault on Palembang, or if he accepts the damage as Scen 2. permits him to.
< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/16/2012 4:42:45 PM >
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The Moose
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 
I realize how much a NorPac incursion can mess up your day, so I'm going to detail some US forces which a lot of players would send to the South Seas to that region. I don't want to be the first Allied player to see if you can win after Seattle's aircraft plants are burned to the ground.
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