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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 4:54:13 PM   
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Bullwinkle58
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Well, that's not what he said. And this is a super-powered-Japan mod that he himself wrote.

But sure, Scenario 1 is hard for Japan, especially if they try to invade Oz or India, which the devs never intended be done in Scenario 1. If they expand and then hunker down, don't abuse the economy, and play the island game well, they can win the game.


Ok, I am reading between the lines and giving the benefit of doubt.

This mod, as I understand it super jacked up the ships Japan has, but left the economy and ground forces at scenario 1 levels.

And I think that makes this game a little tougher for Japan as the economy is more likely to crash and burn. Which it should have by now if the Allies were on their game.


John has said a bunch of times that what you say about the economy is true. But right now his economy isn't crashing, or the problem really. He used his expanded IJN aggressively, which CR has seen before, and it bit him. He let China lag, undefeated, and it's biting him now. He hasn't really focused much on ASW. He played on the fringes even as CR drove for his heartlands in the PI, then Formosa, and now mainland Asia. Those were all decisions, not mod givens.

I don't mean to criticize in someone's own AAR, and lordy I have made my share of whoopsies in my games. My only point was that Japan losing is not inevitable in any scenario. If the game design is respected. Over the past near-decade, Japan players have optimized the hell out of the design. Much less innovation for the Allies, since so little can be changed and a lot of it is in the EXE. I suspect the devs would do some things differently if they had known how much smart Japan players would wring out of the design.

If you want to play AE aggressively, best to play the Allies. Some Japan players can do it and get away with it, but most can't. They suffer a loss that can't be recovered. Many walk at that point. Alfred used to make the point that the pleasure in playing Japan is in the optimization and defensive game, the playing not to lose. Few people can do that over a period of real-time years. I think John should play the Allies in a Scenario 1 game. It might fit him better.


< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 9/25/2017 4:55:59 PM >


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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 7:22:50 PM   
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Lowpe
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Good post. +1

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:01:11 PM   
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AcePylut
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This game is teaching me a lot about fighting Japan at the end game for the RA mod. Seems that if Dan had tended to truly cutting off the DEI after moving up the ladder to Formosa. Japan’s economy would have crashed by now. I’m wondering how much damage to the IJ War Effort would have been done if Dan had put a few anti-ship air groups and appropriate amount of escorts in the “DEI” to interdict those numerous tanker convoys that basically went right through the middle of the US holdings in the DEI/PI and made their way to the Home Islands. Or maybe if he parked a “Mini Death Star” down there with adequate search to forewarn of a KB strike, that would suffice. Or maybe some stout surface forces. I’m also learning that pulling a Death Star basically provides wrecking crew of everything within 6 hexes – but the map is quite large and I think, as much as John can, John’s exploited that weakness of the 10^6 DS’s rather nicely.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:07:10 PM   
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adarbrauner
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Well, that's not what he said. And this is a super-powered-Japan mod that he himself wrote.

But sure, Scenario 1 is hard for Japan, especially if they try to invade Oz or India, which the devs never intended be done in Scenario 1. If they expand and then hunker down, don't abuse the economy, and play the island game well, they can win the game.


Ok, I am reading between the lines and giving the benefit of doubt.

This mod, as I understand it super jacked up the ships Japan has, but left the economy and ground forces at scenario 1 levels.

And I think that makes this game a little tougher for Japan as the economy is more likely to crash and burn. Which it should have by now if the Allies were on their game.


John has said a bunch of times that what you say about the economy is true. But right now his economy isn't crashing, or the problem really. He used his expanded IJN aggressively, which CR has seen before, and it bit him. He let China lag, undefeated, and it's biting him now. He hasn't really focused much on ASW. He played on the fringes even as CR drove for his heartlands in the PI, then Formosa, and now mainland Asia. Those were all decisions, not mod givens.

I don't mean to criticize in someone's own AAR, and lordy I have made my share of whoopsies in my games. My only point was that Japan losing is not inevitable in any scenario. If the game design is respected. Over the past near-decade, Japan players have optimized the hell out of the design. Much less innovation for the Allies, since so little can be changed and a lot of it is in the EXE. I suspect the devs would do some things differently if they had known how much smart Japan players would wring out of the design.

If you want to play AE aggressively, best to play the Allies. Some Japan players can do it and get away with it, but most can't. They suffer a loss that can't be recovered. Many walk at that point. Alfred used to make the point that the pleasure in playing Japan is in the optimization and defensive game, the playing not to lose. Few people can do that over a period of real-time years. I think John should play the Allies in a Scenario 1 game. It might fit him better.


quote:

I think John should play the Allies in a Scenario 1 game.


I think Ad Cochrane has played and is playing excellently.
Even though I do yes stronly critizize, or better do not understand at all his decisions to practically give up to a fierce resistance in Luzon, and in Southern China when he could still have done it.

He also opted for the strategic decision not to cut off China from her inland supply routes in the Kunming.

I think these were all calculated moves by Ad Cochrane, i.e. giving up strong resistance and fight to save resources. The end results of these decisions are still to be checked...


He also avoided to launch an all out attack, LB, Carrier based + Kamikaze, Pts, subs and surface on CR main fleet when the latter exposed himself under best conditions for the attacker, nearby Shanghai.

Great suspance and interest now for the planned offensive against CR naval supply train in the far australian waters.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:11:24 PM   
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MBF
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Who is Ad Cochrane ?

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:37:06 PM   
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John 3rd
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

What sets me off here is the fundamental difference between an Allied player and a Japanese player. In 1942 and/or 1943 the Allied player KNOWS that no matter what he loses or what defeats are inflicted on him and his units, he will still win. Look at this match for perfect example. You might be beaten up for a while but no how you play--good or bad--you will still win. The Japanese player gets the heady days of 1942 and know no mater what he does--no matter how perfectly he plays--he will still lose. Put simply the Allied player always has hope and the Japanese player never has it. We--Japanese players--play for the excited of the start and hoped for standing tall at the end. That is the difference from my perspective.

Might be wrong but that is my opinion.


You are wrong. I lost a PBEM as the Allies to a great Japan player. Auto-vic 1/1/43. Humbling. It can be done.

I am playing a great Japan player in Lokasenna in late October 1944. I'm at about 1.5:1 against in VPs, struggling to eke out a draw--maybe--in 1946. It can be done.

You lost an epic carrier battle through miscalculation and aggressive hubris. It was the turning point in this game, far more than anything that happened at Sumatra. I'm sure you learned from it, as I have learned many times in the two games I named. But this lament "Japan can't win" is simply untrue.


The difference here is that I don't believe in auto-victory. When I start I plan to go to the end...


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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:38:27 PM   
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John 3rd
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


Auto-vic was DBB with stacking limits, my first DBB and first stacking limits. Not his.

The Loka game is Stock Scenario 2 with PDU ON, and ahistoric R&D. My own brand of hubris.


I think your sentiments are dead on, but I will add a caveat. Scenario 1 style games, which this is not, is exceptionally difficult for Japan to make June of 45. Japanese AV is almost never a threat.

Scenario 2 style games the threat of Japanese AV is high, and the possibility of making 1946 is high.

The number of actual JFBs that have made it to the end game in a pbem is very low, and the mistake rate of JFBs in the end game is super high and absolutely unforgiving.

I think that is what John is trying to express.


Spot on!

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:44:33 PM   
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Bullwinkle58
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd


The difference here is that I don't believe in auto-victory. When I start I plan to go to the end...



CR believes in it. It's the only way an Allied player can win.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:46:35 PM   
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John 3rd
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


Auto-vic was DBB with stacking limits, my first DBB and first stacking limits. Not his.

The Loka game is Stock Scenario 2 with PDU ON, and ahistoric R&D. My own brand of hubris.


I think your sentiments are dead on, but I will add a caveat. Scenario 1 style games, which this is not, is exceptionally difficult for Japan to make June of 45. Japanese AV is almost never a threat.

Scenario 2 style games the threat of Japanese AV is high, and the possibility of making 1946 is high.

The number of actual JFBs that have made it to the end game in a pbem is very low, and the mistake rate of JFBs in the end game is super high and absolutely unforgiving.

I think that is what John is trying to express.


Well, that's not what he said. And this is a super-powered-Japan mod that he himself wrote.

But sure, Scenario 1 is hard for Japan, especially if they try to invade Oz or India, which the devs never intended be done in Scenario 1. If they expand and then hunker down, don't abuse the economy, and play the island game well, they can win the game.


I must defend something here.

THIS VERSION of RA is too strong for any form of balance. As I must continually state, Treaty--RA--Between the Storms are all AltNav Hist. Few changes/additions to the IJA. It is all IJN. This version was started over five years ago and RA has been massively re-tooled off of lessons learned here and elsewhere.

Just ask my able partner-in-crime--Michael--about this.

My next game shall be out of Between the Storms (Regular or Lite) and that match shall be exceedingly competitive. Cannot wait for a chance to play it because, unlike RA 5.0 (where we are now on RA 8.2), these two Mods should be exceedingly competitive...


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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 9:52:24 PM   
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John 3rd
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MBF

Who is Ad Cochrane ?


Me. Admiral Cochran.


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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 10:01:46 PM   
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John 3rd
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Moose's Post at the top of the page has few things I would contradict in it.

Comments:
1. I went for a quiet China. Won't happen in the next game.
2. Totally wrong on ASW. I have crushed CR's subs whenever they have appeared. In fact, I believe some people earlier cried fould when I stated how many IJA Bomber Sentai I fighting just Allied SS. This is something all JFB need to do. Take 4-6 of those bombers units, train them up in Low Nav, ASW, and Search (takes over a year) and then USE THEM! My Surface ASW has been pretty successful as well.
3. Don't disagree with much else in the top paragraph. Pretty fair synopsis.
4. Everyone loses the 'big one' at some point in the game. Mine occurred in mid-1943. Numerous mistakes were made on my side and they were compounded by the reality of trying to play three matches at the same time with only limited time availability. STUPID on my part. I could/should have fought that battle in the Central Pacific far differently.

As Lowpe and Chickenboy has stated, it is learning this end game side that is most important.

Cannot wait to use the knowledge gained for the next match.



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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 10:32:13 PM   
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John 3rd
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Barring a HUGE surprise, there will be some real action this round FROM Japan. Keeping fingers crossed and am looking at the possibility of sacrificing a cat here in the man cave!

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 10:33:42 PM   
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ny59giants
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quote:

THIS VERSION of RA is too strong for any form of balance. As I must continually state, Treaty--RA--Between the Storms are all AltNav Hist. Few changes/additions to the IJA. It is all IJN. This version was started over five years ago and RA has been massively re-tooled off of lessons learned here and elsewhere.

Just ask my able partner-in-crime--Michael--about this.


This version of RA had Japan get stock CVs plus those John added to the mod. The newest versions have had some play testing done (I'm in Feb 43 as Japan vs Gen Patton in BTSL) and had played John as Allies in 1 of 3 games that was overloading him. I've offered up my insights for both sides and allowed John to focus mainly on the different ship classes. The Allies have some bigger teeth at start as 1EyedJack found out in Java Sea in Feb '42. John is the historian for the period between the two World Wars, not me.

I would strongly recommend the new versions that are getting their finishes touches done now. However, I would say that your take a close look at what 'toys' your opponent gets at start and through the war before doing orders for turn 1. Enough shuffling of warships have occurred that if you go 'bump in the night' your TF may make a nice coral reef.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 10:33:56 PM   
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John 3rd
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Forgot to mention that both of the remaining Kongos survived their encounter with 10,000 Allied warships. They are due to arrive at Yokohoma tomorrow. Kongo will be a quick fix while Kirishima will take some serious time. Will detail when I see the exact number of days for each.


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RE: December 1944 - 9/25/2017 10:35:33 PM   
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John 3rd
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

quote:

THIS VERSION of RA is too strong for any form of balance. As I must continually state, Treaty--RA--Between the Storms are all AltNav Hist. Few changes/additions to the IJA. It is all IJN. This version was started over five years ago and RA has been massively re-tooled off of lessons learned here and elsewhere.

Just ask my able partner-in-crime--Michael--about this.


This version of RA had Japan get stock CVs plus those John added to the mod. The newest versions have had some play testing done (I'm in Feb 43 as Japan vs Gen Patton in BTSL) and had played John as Allies in 1 of 3 games that was overloading him. I've offered up my insights for both sides and allowed John to focus mainly on the different ship classes. The Allies have some bigger teeth at start as 1EyedJack found out in Java Sea in Feb '42. John is the historian for the period between the two World Wars, not me.

I would strongly recommend the new versions that are getting their finishes touches done now. However, I would say that your take a close look at what 'toys' your opponent gets at start and through the war before doing orders for turn 1. Enough shuffling of warships have occurred that if you go 'bump in the night' your TF may make a nice coral reef.


Damn. That just made me spew tea Michael! Well said and quite accurate...


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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 11:56:49 AM   
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Bullwinkle58
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Moose's Post at the top of the page has few things I would contradict in it.

Comments:
1. I went for a quiet China. Won't happen in the next game.
2. Totally wrong on ASW. I have crushed CR's subs whenever they have appeared. In fact, I believe some people earlier cried fould when I stated how many IJA Bomber Sentai I fighting just Allied SS. This is something all JFB need to do. Take 4-6 of those bombers units, train them up in Low Nav, ASW, and Search (takes over a year) and then USE THEM! My Surface ASW has been pretty successful as well.



With the resurrection rule plus the VPs and industry available in China, leaving it in Allied hands---in the game--is more than a speed bump. Next game . . .

I can't discuss ASW further due to Opsec. CR has posted hundreds of maps in his AAR, some of which you may find surprising.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 1:48:52 PM   
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John 3rd
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His SS have been a non-factor in this match. That should be declared victory unto itself.

I would be truly curious as to how many he has lost.



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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 1:54:40 PM   
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John 3rd
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December 7, 1944

On the 3rd anniversary of Pearl Harbor, the region around the Gulf of Carpentaria (Northern Australia) distress calls begin to ring out across the radio waves.

I-26 sinks AK Daniel Reed near Wessel. Troops are lost with this sinking.

A pair of LSTs are hit at Saumlaki by Helens and Lily flying from eastern Timor.

From the east, after a full speed run, the Japanese carriers launch a strike killing 4 AKs and damaging more. All are carrying fuel.

There are a crap ton of convoys moving around here. Tomorrow shall see more action as everything attempts to scurry away from the Japanese attack. On the Kido Butai, heavy and cruisers and two battlecruisers are told to prepare to sortie if the opportunity presents itself...





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 9/26/2017 1:55:10 PM >


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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 2:15:14 PM   
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crsutton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Moose's Post at the top of the page has few things I would contradict in it.

Comments:
1. I went for a quiet China. Won't happen in the next game.
2. Totally wrong on ASW. I have crushed CR's subs whenever they have appeared. In fact, I believe some people earlier cried fould when I stated how many IJA Bomber Sentai I fighting just Allied SS. This is something all JFB need to do. Take 4-6 of those bombers units, train them up in Low Nav, ASW, and Search (takes over a year) and then USE THEM! My Surface ASW has been pretty successful as well.
3. Don't disagree with much else in the top paragraph. Pretty fair synopsis.
4. Everyone loses the 'big one' at some point in the game. Mine occurred in mid-1943. Numerous mistakes were made on my side and they were compounded by the reality of trying to play three matches at the same time with only limited time availability. STUPID on my part. I could/should have fought that battle in the Central Pacific far differently.

As Lowpe and Chickenboy has stated, it is learning this end game side that is most important.

Cannot wait to use the knowledge gained for the next match.




Agree. It is why it is well worth it for Japanese players to stick it out and play the end game no matter the situation. You can only gain experience and skill by doing and so many Japanese players give up when it goes bad. Give up and you are going to be in the same position next end game-in the dark.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 2:33:30 PM   
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Lowpe
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Are they really carrying nothing but fuel or are they fuel/cargo dual cargo ships?

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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 2:48:50 PM   
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John 3rd
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Don't know.

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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 4:55:55 PM   
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John 3rd
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December 8, 1944

Strikes range out up to a range of nine hexes from Kido Butai. Though stiff resistance is found on convoys hit near Boela, losses are not bad--15 Sam, 15 Judy, and 9 Jill. In exchange, the Sea Eagles sink 7 AK (troops or fuel on board) and a PF. About an equal number of ships are hit and damaged. Not too bad.

KB moves due east close to the shore of Australia. BB Musashi and a Battlecruiser detach with 5 DD to hit Darwin. They are CAP'd by 4 Daitai of Sams. After this smack, the KB will head for Koepang and fuel that is waiting.

After Koepang they will move to Soerabaja and join seven more CVs who come out of Upgrades in 4 Days.

We'll tally the totals of the raid after tomorrow's turn.





Attachment (1)

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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 4:58:24 PM   
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John 3rd
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Up north, the forgotten base of Batan roars back into life as 31 Sam escort 30 Kamikaze Judy hitting ships at nearby Camaguin. This strike brushes aside 7 Beaufighters and smacks an LST with 2 Hits, a LSI(L) with two hits and another LCI (L) with a single smack. Five hits from 30 planes. Not bad there either.


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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 8:07:01 PM   
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Chickenboy
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
30 Kamikaze Judy hitting ships at nearby Camaguin.


Glad to see the backwater knife-in-the-back strike from kamikaze Judys. There's lots of opportunities to do this where the 1.0x10^6 ain't. You working off your surplus of outdated D4Y1s?

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RE: December 1944 - 9/26/2017 10:38:00 PM   
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John 3rd
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I'm using anything I can get that isn't 'front line' presently!

Here we go again. Have a 25 ship Tanker TF that just moved past Dadjangas covered by CV Hiryu and a CVL carrying only fighters. NO issues and the CVs will retire west to pick-up another full fuel TF heading east. As that one transitions, we pick-up a TF of 25 empty Tankers/AOs and bring them back to the DEI. That I continue to be allowed this amazes me but I'll take it.

The big Tanker TF carries 135,000 Fuel and 90,000 Oil. The next one carries 55,500 Fuel and 90,000 Oil.


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(in reply to Chickenboy)
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RE: December 1944 - 9/27/2017 8:52:57 AM   
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adarbrauner
Matrix Elite Guard


 

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From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jhon the III

Up north, the forgotten base of Batan roars back into life as 31 Sam escort 30 Kamikaze Judy hitting ships at nearby Camaguin. This strike brushes aside 7 Beaufighters and smacks an LST with 2 Hits, a LSI(L) with two hits and another LCI (L) with a single smack. Five hits from 30 planes. Not bad there either.


As to me, you've already won this war.







Where is USN Main Carrier Fleet right now?
Are you prepared to confront a fraction, a third or half of it, in pursue and hunting mode against you (remember he's afraid of cap traps when setting his attack ranges..)?


Now that you are assembling in Indonesia, would you consider raiding his resupply trains in Bengal Gulf to Rangoon?

Would you consider keeping a considerable fraction of the Fleet eastward/northern of the Phillippines? You know, just not to place all the eggs in one crack only...and as additional confusion regarding your plans and forces, and as a deterrence for you opponent?

Are you ready to squeeze out the fleet from Indonesia as soon as your operations shall be completed?

What your time schedule? are you planning/ready for a quick op there?




The results of your raid are not that much, considered the expectations and fuel and assets involved. But the real victory is that you sailed those waters, attacked and passed through unscathed after having disrupted his plans and resupply routes!

That's worth, for me, a mountain of gold, especially for the morale!




quote:

ORIGINAL: John the III
His SS have been a non-factor in this match. That should be declared victory unto itself.

I would be truly curious as to how many he has lost.


Are you sinking subs around Shanghai?



(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 5306
RE: December 1944 - 9/27/2017 2:53:24 PM   
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John 3rd
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I asked Dan if he would let me know how many have actually been sunk but he didn't comment/address the question. Don't want specific SS just would like to know how many have been sunk.

Semi-hidden in the CV Sweep are 14 Japanese SS that move into the same waters north of Australia.


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(in reply to adarbrauner)
Post #: 5307
RE: December 1944 - 9/27/2017 6:59:21 PM   
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John 3rd
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December 10, 1944

My noble opponent finally realizes that when you have a gadzillion ships with near infinite airpower aboard them you can probably use it OFFENSIVELY. The 1.0^10x6 flies a series of sweeps over Nagasaki. Luckily the sweeps come in disjointedly and the 111 Japanese Fighters are able to seriously chew up some Hellkittens.

Sweeps:
111 F vs 23 F6F
101 F vs 23 F6F
90 F vs 23 F6F
73 F vs (HOLY CRAP!) 265 F6F/F4U

35 B-24 then fly in and attack RESOURCES doing little damage and losing some of their own to AA and Barrage Balloons.






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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 5308
RE: December 1944 - 9/27/2017 7:00:38 PM   
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John 3rd
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Here are the losses for the day:





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(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 5309
RE: December 1944 - 9/27/2017 7:01:12 PM   
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John 3rd
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Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
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WE rotate Daitai/Sentai and reset for tomorrow...


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(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 5310
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