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RE: The Cruel Sea

 
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RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/25/2016 3:22:28 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Haven't had a chance to run the run as of yet due to leaving for a Historical Society event this morning.

Spent part of the night waiting for the turn and am willing to now make some predictions:
1. He shall move past Truk and head for the North Coast of New Guinea. Targets: Biak or others in that area. He'll count on his engineers to do the work while providing CAP from his CV/CVEs. He has tankers and support shipping so he can refuel and re-provision indefinitely.

2. Once these ;empty' bases are built up then he'll work to cut the DEI off on the eastern and central side.

Reaction/Thinking:
1. Decent strategy but totally dependent on Base Constructor and my responses.

2. Kido Butai cannot engage until the four CVs in Japan are repaired. Half of the Unryu's are due within 80 Days. That should help.

3. I am not going to play his game.

This move predicates me reacting and killing my aircraft off for little potential gain since all his CV/CVEs are THERE. Follow the simple logic---if ALL/MOST of his CV/CVEs are THERE then he is vulnerable elsewhere. Perhaps we look to weaken his position elsewhere. Wake jumps to mind as a target. Could re-take that and try to move him away from his goal. The eastern Marshalls/Gilberts could fall into that thought line as well. Need to think on that option and see what else jumps to mind...

I have Infantry Brigades/Divisions at Aitape, Yap, Peleliu, and Babeldoap. There is an ID at Davao as well.

Will lift some troops out of Java to deny him access to the Eastern DEI.

This is my thinking presently...


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Post #: 2341
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 2:30:08 AM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
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From: Los Angeles
Status: offline 		We need some updates -- you were about to go to Page 2.

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Post #: 2342
The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 8:02:00 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		November 13, 1943

Just as I predicted. His landing is now--currently--aimed for Biak and points west moving towards Sorong. This screenshot shows where the TFs are. The black lines and arrows are troops TF moving to their destinations. Everything marked there is Brigade or greater in strength. Also does not show what is coming in from the east (mainly heading for Aitape and Hollandia. The BLACK boxes show TFs landing troops presently.

Dan mentioned the anniversary of his Sumatra landings being about a year ago in game time and my final victory there just five months ago. Let us hope for similar results. I am building the shoulders to prevent the landings from--hopefully--hitting anything vital (or an established base). We'll build shoulders, try to keep the bases from building quickly and then move in slowly.

The Allied Fleet cannot stay there FOREVER. I want to hit it when it begins to spread out or return home.





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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 6/29/2016 8:05:19 AM >

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Post #: 2343
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 8:11:22 AM   
John 3rd


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

We need some updates -- you were about to go to Page 2.


Am sorry about the lack of updates but I have been pretty depressed with AE. Feel like I have let people down and feel pretty bad about it.

1. Cut my game with Herbie and passed that delightful mess to Fabertong. Feel awful about that. The match was a blast and though I wasn't treating it as a true strategic match (more of a give him headlines for the AAR game) my regrets are manifest for cutting it.

2. I've spoken with Michael and we've agreed to suspend our game until school starts. Having the boys home on top of everything else has been hard. Need to spend more time with them and this will help. Once school is going Paula and the boys will be there and I shall have time open up to pick this match back up at that time.

3. Having time now cleared for playing the game with Dan, I am not happy for only putting in maybe 50% of the needed time and brainpower to be at my best with this one. Have requested some days to make a thorough perusal of the state of Japan and Dan has agreed for the end of this week. A couple of days should allow me to get my feet underneath me and make sure aircraft research, engines, the economy as a whole, and everything else is cleaned up, right, and ready for 1944.

4. Not being able to keep the AAR up is highly frustrating. Love writing and getting people's thoughts and it is beyond frustrating to not be able to do that. There have been days when I didn't even want to look at the Forum because it would make me think of what hasn't been done on this AAR. This will change with freeing up time by handling points 1 and 2.

OK. Done with moping. Just wanted to explain myself as we prepare to move forward...



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Post #: 2344
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 4:45:44 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline 		No letdown here. I have had to abandon/postpone games before due to RL considerations and completely understand the necessity. I imagine others here share similar experiences. But I am glad you are able to keep game going with CR. It is a lot of fun to watch.

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Post #: 2345
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 4:53:03 PM   
Anachro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Cut my game with Herbie and passed that delightful mess to Fabertong. Feel awful about that. The match was a blast and though I wasn't treating it as a true strategic match (more of a give him headlines for the AAR game) my regrets are manifest for cutting it.


This might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for both you and pws1225. You might not have been treating the game as a true strategic match, but I'm sure the Penguin (as you guys call him) will. It might lead to a revolution in pws1225's AAR. I think you two should both look very much forward to it. I know I will.

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Post #: 2346
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 5:38:37 PM   
Anachro


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From: The Coastal Elite
Status: offline 		I said pws1225. I meant 1275psi and his Letters from the Prime Minister

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Post #: 2347
The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 5:50:15 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		November 14, 1943

Someone described it as 'a poor man's sweep.' Japan launches 68 F and 6 Judy against 490 Allied Fighters. Lose about 25 planes for roughly 18-20.





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Post #: 2348
Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 6:01:24 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		November 1943

I hit the landings right on the nose. The Allies land at Biak, Noemfoor, and Manokwari. Figure Sorong will be added to that list at a minimum.

This is a good thing. NONE of the bases are developed at all. While an eventual threat to the Eastern and Central DEI that will take TIME to manifest. These landings give me just enough time to get my reinforcements unloaded at Ternate, Ambon, Aitape, Hollandia, and Manado. Move 100+ Fighters to Ambon and Ternate to provide CAP if he wants to play with my TFs.

Eighteen I-Boats begin to deploy in the area.

Order prep to begin with two Inf Div for Biak. It is the biggest threat in AF potential so we'll plan to take it back first.

Move Kido Butai from Kaving to Manus.

CV Hiryu is repaired yesterday, CV Ryukaku is repaired in 3 days, and CV Shokaku needs 11 days. Once these three are good we'll move them and work to ratchet up some pressure on the Allies.






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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 6/29/2016 6:04:34 PM >

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Post #: 2349
RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 7:59:01 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Order prep to begin with two Inf Div for Biak. It is the biggest threat in AF potential so we'll plan to take it back first.



Reading both sides, so just a general question. In almost-1944, what is your general feeling about the utility or even possibility of staging major, multi-division landings with x-class-ships, no amphib bonus, and the current Allied naval OOB?

My general experience has been that once Japan loses a target in the era you're in and later, it's gone. You seem to have a different attitude.

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 8:28:44 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		The hard thing is this is a game of economy and in that I mean engineers. It is my experience that by late 43 the Allied ability to land at virtually any location and quickly build up airfields trumps any counter move that the Japanese player can do. This is my experience in my current game. I was worried about the ability and the early arrival of the super Jack and George fighters. But frankly, it has not played out that way. Yes, they are more of a nuisance but the reality is that I can build a level nine airfield most anywhere it is possible while my opponent simply can't do that. In the end superior airfields allow for air superiority more so than superior aircraft. Well, that and the P47...

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 8:38:51 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

The hard thing is this is a game of economy and in that I mean engineers. It is my experience that by late 43 the Allied ability to land at virtually any location and quickly build up airfields trumps any counter move that the Japanese player can do. This is my experience in my current game. I was worried about the ability and the early arrival of the super Jack and George fighters. But frankly, it has not played out that way. Yes, they are more of a nuisance but the reality is that I can build a level nine airfield most anywhere it is possible while my opponent simply can't do that. In the end superior airfields allow for air superiority more so than superior aircraft. Well, that and the P47...


Very hard for Japan to contest the air away from a a rail network. Very hard.

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Post #: 2352
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 8:39:45 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

November 14, 1943

Someone described it as 'a poor man's sweep.' Japan launches 68 F and 6 Judy against 490 Allied Fighters. Lose about 25 planes for roughly 18-20.



So, are you happy with the results?

What altitude did you go in at?

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Post #: 2353
RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 8:47:51 PM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
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Status: offline 		I was just wondering the same, how long does it take allied engineers to make that undeveloped base into a "developed and dangerous" base?

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 8:50:06 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I was just wondering the same, how long does it take allied engineers to make that undeveloped base into a "developed and dangerous" base?


Less than a week, a business week.

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 11:28:08 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		We're going to find out. He must keep all the shipping tied to one point or else I will eat it. Right now the only safe thing for the Allies to do is move as one big blob. If he spreads out at all, I shall pounce...

People said some similar things about the Sumatra Campaign. As long as I can buuild shoulders to this set of landings, I will work to attrit and damage the Allied Forces. If nothing else, it serves to buy time...


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 6/29/2016 11:30:47 PM >

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Post #: 2356
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/29/2016 11:29:16 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
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From: La Salle, Colorado
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

November 14, 1943

Someone described it as 'a poor man's sweep.' Japan launches 68 F and 6 Judy against 490 Allied Fighters. Lose about 25 planes for roughly 18-20.



So, are you happy with the results?

What altitude did you go in at?


Not really excited. made a mistake in keeping my Judy at 11,000 Ft. Next time I shall bring them up and do a high altitude 'attack/sweep.'


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Post #: 2357
RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 11:30:16 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I was just wondering the same, how long does it take allied engineers to make that undeveloped base into a "developed and dangerous" base?


Less than a week, a business week.



I have 4 BBs at Manus who intend to make an 'impression' at Biak. It is the only base I am concerned about losing.


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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/29/2016 11:51:51 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		American Construction units:

The biggest and baddest is the "USN Naval Construction Rgt" with 225 engineers (includes vehicle - bulldozers).
Next is the "Construction Rgt" with only 84 engineers.
The typical "USN Naval Construction Bn" has just 75 engineers.
AEB = 57 engineers, USN Spec Con Bn = 51, Base Group = 42, etc.

Dan will be able to put about 500 engineers at most bases and over 1000 engineers at his primary bases. One of his new bases has AF at 0(5) and it will be at size 2 or near 3 in the week that Lowpe mentioned. He could base B-24s at this size in just 2 to 3 weeks.

However, one of the things I did for Japan in this mod was increase the number of 'engineer vehicles' some units get, so John will and has been able to build AFs and forts better than Japan does in any other scenario.

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/30/2016 12:24:56 AM   
John 3rd


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From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I've already got engineers moving to Aiptape, Hollandia, Dabo, and growing AFs at Ternate, Manado, and Ambon. Babeldoap, Yap, and Peleliu are close as well

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/30/2016 12:38:46 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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Status: offline 		Looks like I don't get an answer, so I'll go help CR.

Ciao.

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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/30/2016 5:25:14 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
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From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Now--I cannot have an upset moose stomping around. It would be a long shot but that was said about when Dan landed in Sumatra and Malaya. I will take the shot if the opportunity arises. Look at the MAP. He is landing with NOTHING for support ANYWHERE nearby. His closest base is in the eastern Marshalls or Alice Springs/Cooktown, Aust...


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RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/30/2016 3:31:15 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		November 15, 1943

The I-Boats go back to work this day:

I-183 SINKS AK Crater carrying troops at Manokwari
I-180 plants TWO TTs into a big target--APA President Jackson--at Sansapor

Six more I-Boats break-up from their TF and move into the Hunting Grounds.




Enemy troops unloading at Sorong, Sansapor, and Waigeo. Biak is taken.

Troops unloading at Manado, Ternate, Kendari, and Ambon.

At Ambon a solitary US DD attacks the TF unloading there. This single DD sinks 2 CM, 2 PC, and 5 AK. Damn. Promote that Captain...

More Fighters move into Ambon, Ternate, and Kendari.

Kido Butai is spotted at Manus. The clarion call "Enemy Carriers" is clearly broadcast twice by PBYs. GOOD. Let us hope that makes him look over his shoulder! Move the CVs towards Hollandia to make it APPEAR I am closing in. REALLY Need a day for his CVs to not do anything exciting. Maybe this will freeze them in place? We'll see.





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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 6/30/2016 3:35:47 PM >

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RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/30/2016 3:43:49 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		You are using your aggressive reputation for a little deception. Very nice.

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RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/30/2016 4:12:58 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

At Ambon a solitary US DD attacks the TF unloading there. This single DD sinks 2 CM, 2 PC, and 5 AK. Damn. Promote that Captain...




The Japanese AI likes to do this and it can be very frustrating for the Allied player in '42 as these little one ship TFs wreak havoc.


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RE: Sumatra 43? - 6/30/2016 6:43:29 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Now--I cannot have an upset moose stomping around. It would be a long shot but that was said about when Dan landed in Sumatra and Malaya. I will take the shot if the opportunity arises. Look at the MAP. He is landing with NOTHING for support ANYWHERE nearby. His closest base is in the eastern Marshalls or Alice Springs/Cooktown, Aust...



Not trying to cause a ruckus.

But Sumatra was a year ago. You're at 1944 now; it's a whole different Allied world. I was reacting to you saying you would attempt a two ID landing at this date. Earlier, when the Marshalls fell, you spoke of immediately trying to take back an island (don't recall which.)

I have rage-moved a couple of times in my Lokasenna game. I get things can be emotional. All I was asking was whether you believe you can hold a landing beach--for days and days--to unload two IDs plus trim from x-ships at this date given the navy he has? He can mount multiple 10-Fletcher TFs that are fast, nimble against air attack, have a big AA number, and are armored.

And even if you re-took Biak with two IDs, at whatever landing cost, what then?

I'm suggesting a mindset reset. To the realities of 1944. That when you lose an island it's gone. Time is your currency now, not ships sunk or dirt.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 6/30/2016 6:46:58 PM >

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RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/30/2016 7:26:57 PM   
DanSez


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Am sorry about the lack of updates but I have been pretty depressed with AE. Feel like I have let people down and feel pretty bad about it.


Trying to run three games, plus have any kind of life (work, family, sleep) is a daunting task, day after day after day.

Don't feel bad. In fact you addressed the limits of the commitments and negociated amicable resolutions with your opponents. That also is a lesson to other readers on how to handle a game as difficult as WitP-AE.

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Post #: 2367
RE: The Cruel Sea - 6/30/2016 9:03:39 PM   
Sangeli


Posts: 1132
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From: San Francisco
Status: offline 		One thing you might consider in a counter-blow is prepping for the bases the Allies occupied bloodlessly instead of the ones they took by force. Main reason is that most Allied players by this time are not going to bother with much of a garrison with the bases they didn't have to fight for. Let the Allies build up those bases and then take them back! Of course the Allies may see that your units are planning for such a move with SIGINT but that could also be a good thing; it might force units that were allocated for amphibious invasion into a garrison role.

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Post #: 2368
RE: The Cruel Sea - 7/2/2016 1:49:25 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
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From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Good thoughts Sangeli. You always have them. KEEP THROWING THEM OUT!

Appreciate the comment DanSez.


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RE: The Cruel Sea - 7/2/2016 1:54:16 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I have run the next turn but am going to sit on it for a day or two. When I made the decision with the other matches, it dawned on me just how little I have been doing in this game. For the last three game months, I have simply tried to do turns and get them cranked out. There has been little time for a methodical going through of the Japanese Empire. This is leading to more problems and mistakes. For the next month or so while It is only Dan and I for a match I intend to bring my "A Game." That has not been the case and it now changes.

The intention is to go through the entire map, the entire economy, and all R&D.

In reality this should have been done in August 1943 but have had to wait until roughly Dec 43.

Everything will Posted here--good and bad--for comments, discussion, and observations...


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