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RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 5:23:23 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I know that Dan must open up a second axis of attack.

He can effectively stop his DEI attack at this point since Makassar puts Palembang at risk by 4EB. Logically he might want to move a little closer so he can have fighter bases nearer to the oilfields. I THINK I will have all that covered within the next 2-3 weeks of game time so I figure there isn't much more to gain my staying the DEI with everything. He MUST threaten the Home Islands. So...where will he come from?

The Kuriles and Hokkaido are a favorite of his.

Anyone got a 'gut feeling' here?


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Post #: 2611
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 5:25:54 PM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
Joined: 3/19/2004
Status: offline 		Which is why interconnected base building needs to start in '41 :)

John I think you should carry this game through to the very end - and I'll bet a whole One Dollar Bill (my maximum bet) that in the next game after this one, you'll be playing with the '45 end-game at the forefront of your '41-'42 strategy, and not play with as much of a "can I conquer more than I did last time before it all falls apart" mindset :)

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Post #: 2612
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 5:34:54 PM   
AcePylut


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I know that Dan must open up a second axis of attack.

He can effectively stop his DEI attack at this point since Makassar puts Palembang at risk by 4EB. Logically he might want to move a little closer so he can have fighter bases nearer to the oilfields. I THINK I will have all that covered within the next 2-3 weeks of game time so I figure there isn't much more to gain my staying the DEI with everything. He MUST threaten the Home Islands. So...where will he come from?

The Kuriles and Hokkaido are a favorite of his.

Anyone got a 'gut feeling' here?



What does your (weak) SigInt tell you? Anything?


Also - Verse 28: Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.


Where has he attacked before, where has he not attacked before? I know that if I were to play you, the first thing I would do is look at all your AAR's, see what you haven't done before, and defend "there". I.e I think you've done India, Oz, PH, and the Alaskan frontier. SO I'd defend New Zealand against you.


Also....

Chapter 6, Verse 1-2: “Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted. Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him”
Verse 3: “By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near.”

Can you present an apparently “Easy” looking route for him to come so that you drive him in the direction you want him to approach? But it’s not really an easy route, it’s just your deception? I.e. what about building forts in locations but not really stocking them with troops so it appears empty… but then when you see him coming to those places, you rush in troops to bases with already prepared forts? It might be too late for this game to do that, but something to think about in the future.



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Post #: 2613
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 6:04:45 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I would love to 'set-up' an 'easy path' for him and spring an ambush but with Allied Intel I doubt if that is really possible. Any AFB willing to comment on that?


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Post #: 2614
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 6:06:23 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Burma
February 20, 1944

The Japanese pulled their depleted Frank Sentai out about 10 days ago and have rebuilt and rested them. Sprang a successful CAP Trap today on the Allies:





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Post #: 2615
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 6:08:46 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Here are the totals for a nice one day result. Will move the Sentai and stage another ambush in a couple of days.





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Post #: 2616
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/13/2016 10:58:35 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I know that Dan must open up a second axis of attack.

He can effectively stop his DEI attack at this point since Makassar puts Palembang at risk by 4EB. Logically he might want to move a little closer so he can have fighter bases nearer to the oilfields. I THINK I will have all that covered within the next 2-3 weeks of game time so I figure there isn't much more to gain my staying the DEI with everything. He MUST threaten the Home Islands. So...where will he come from?


He would need B-29's to reach Palemburg. Need about a size 7 airfield, an HQ and lots of supply. He gets about 120 of these and each time you move them to a new base 50% need service. with a service rating of 4 he can put a moderate dent in your oil production. Between AA and fighters he will have to go at 25,000 feet. I guess he will try, because there is nothing better to use these hanger queens on right now. Get some high altitude fighters with canons. Now by this time he should have hundreds of B-24's. Those can hit your other production centers. he has lots of them and they have a low service rating. His fighters will not reach Miri yet but everything closer has problems

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Post #: 2617
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/14/2016 1:09:33 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Naive question about the air losses for each side posted above. Those seem like serious losses to both sides, granted the Allies took more of a beating though. Suppose those losses continued, at those levels, for some time. Which side would have to pull out or withdraw? Which side can make up the losses more effectively?

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Post #: 2618
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/14/2016 1:53:32 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		No such thing as a naive question. ALWAYS ask.

The answer is simple. I will have to withdraw. Don't have the ability to fight a sustained battle at the moment over Burma. Can only sting and move. The Frank has such a high SR it means the the surviving fighters are 50-50 as to how many are operational.

It does make him a bit more honest in keeping fighters on the prowl looking for mine...


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Post #: 2619
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/14/2016 1:56:02 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Am REALLY looking forward to today. Shall be home alone for five hours with no turns or anything to do. Plan on AAR work and serious Mod time.


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Post #: 2620
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/14/2016 2:18:21 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I am going to list ALL my Aircraft Research over the next few screenshots:





Once the aircraft goes into production ALL my A6M8 production shifts over and we should be producing 350 a month ASAP.


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/14/2016 2:19:59 PM >

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Post #: 2621
Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 2:24:18 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Here is Tony KAI:





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Post #: 2622
Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 2:29:26 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		One major bomber being researched. Just got the better model of the Frances for IJN. NO OTHER Naval bombers being built--just Frances. Here is Peggy:





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Post #: 2623
RE: Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 2:30:39 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Made that comment about no OTHER IJN bombers being built but Frances. Is there ANY point to building Betty carrying the Baka? Opinions would be most welcome here on this!

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Post #: 2624
RE: Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 2:36:21 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Last one with Frank and George:





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Post #: 2625
An exercize... - 12/14/2016 3:47:40 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Got an exercize for players here. I LOVE to treat this AAR as LEARNING AAR so I would like to see how YOU would organize the late-war Kido Butai. Am Posting screenshots of the carrier component and will then list the available escorts.

Build the Kido Butai into workable Task Forces and explain why you are doing it your way.

Might get no one but then again might be able to engender a good discussion on Japanese CV TF composition.





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Post #: 2626
An exercise... - 12/14/2016 3:49:10 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Here are the rest (slower) of the CV/CVL:





Attachment (1)

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Post #: 2627
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 3:52:10 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		The totals for the Task Force creation are:

11 CV
4 CVL
3 Kongo-Class BC (30 Knots)
8 CA
4 CL
26 DDs

There will be two Unryu-Class CVs (34 Knots--63 Aircraft) and the other Ibuki-Class (33 Knots--48 Aircraft) carriers added to TF composition so try to factor them as well.

Have fun and be sure to explain your answers!


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Post #: 2628
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/14/2016 4:59:58 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I know that Dan must open up a second axis of attack.

He can effectively stop his DEI attack at this point since Makassar puts Palembang at risk by 4EB. Logically he might want to move a little closer so he can have fighter bases nearer to the oilfields. I THINK I will have all that covered within the next 2-3 weeks of game time so I figure there isn't much more to gain my staying the DEI with everything. He MUST threaten the Home Islands. So...where will he come from?


He would need B-29's to reach Palemburg. Need about a size 7 airfield, an HQ and lots of supply. He gets about 120 of these and each time you move them to a new base 50% need service. with a service rating of 4 he can put a moderate dent in your oil production. Between AA and fighters he will have to go at 25,000 feet. I guess he will try, because there is nothing better to use these hanger queens on right now. Get some high altitude fighters with canons. Now by this time he should have hundreds of B-24's. Those can hit your other production centers. he has lots of them and they have a low service rating. His fighters will not reach Miri yet but everything closer has problems


Also, you can't discount carrier raids over bombing attacks any more. The last official patch made carrier attacks on strategic targets much easier. I am surprised more Allied players don't try it.

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Post #: 2629
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 5:00:36 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Just went through and re-tooled my engine factories. Pretty easy once you KNOW what you plan to build in numbers!

Economic State: HI Stockpile is now 516,531. It rose 5,115 this turn.I have been turning off all sorts of stuff: aircraft factories, naval shipyards, armaments, and vehicles. My goal is to get to 1,000,000 HI by Fall 1944.


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Post #: 2630
RE: Back to our regular program... - 12/14/2016 5:02:40 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I know that Dan must open up a second axis of attack.

He can effectively stop his DEI attack at this point since Makassar puts Palembang at risk by 4EB. Logically he might want to move a little closer so he can have fighter bases nearer to the oilfields. I THINK I will have all that covered within the next 2-3 weeks of game time so I figure there isn't much more to gain my staying the DEI with everything. He MUST threaten the Home Islands. So...where will he come from?


He would need B-29's to reach Palemburg. Need about a size 7 airfield, an HQ and lots of supply. He gets about 120 of these and each time you move them to a new base 50% need service. with a service rating of 4 he can put a moderate dent in your oil production. Between AA and fighters he will have to go at 25,000 feet. I guess he will try, because there is nothing better to use these hanger queens on right now. Get some high altitude fighters with canons. Now by this time he should have hundreds of B-24's. Those can hit your other production centers. he has lots of them and they have a low service rating. His fighters will not reach Miri yet but everything closer has problems


Also, you can't discount carrier raids over bombing attacks any more. The last official patch made carrier attacks on strategic targets much easier. I am surprised more Allied players don't try it.


Good point.

Dan is very careful with using his attack aircraft from the CVs. My guess is he has pulled a DB or TB Squadron from each of his heavy CVs to get his fighter total to where it is. The thought of 300-400 Hellkittens doing a Sweep prior to a bombing raid might just keep me up at night...


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Post #: 2631
RE: Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 5:02:54 PM   
crsutton


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From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Made that comment about no OTHER IJN bombers being built but Frances. Is there ANY point to building Betty carrying the Baka? Opinions would be most welcome here on this!



More of the fun factor. My opponent used them in our last game but the results were fairly anemic. Probably no better than a straight up kamikaze.

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Post #: 2632
RE: Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 5:08:05 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I have the same thoughts cr!


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Post #: 2633
RE: Late-War Research - 12/14/2016 5:37:13 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Have really been taking my time going around the map and working on this turn for Dan. Nice to have an extended amount of time to do a THOROUGH perusal of the game. Usually I only get about an hour TOTAL to run the turn, do orders, and then send it back.

Got to thinking about something my Sun Tsu Sensai has been showing me. Dan KNOWS I am withdrawing troops from the SE and Eastern portions of the Empire. PERHAPS here is the place to set the trap? Continuing to pull troops out will bring him out EVENTUALLY. Maybe positioning the full force of Kido Butai somewhere near is the answer...


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Post #: 2634
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 6:56:48 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Here are the rest (slower) of the CV/CVL:







OK. I'll bite. This is too many carriers for one TF, John. You oughta break this up a bit.

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Post #: 2635
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 7:00:53 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		I promised myself long ago that I wouldn't follow this or Canoerebel's AAR, but I confess I've been peeking lately in this one. Once a JFB, always a JFB, I guess.

I see you are producing the Ki-61-II KAI in quantity. My impression is that this version of the Tony is vastly inferior to the Ki-100-I, the next one on the production line. Why are you producing these in such numbers instead of furthering your research and advancing to the Ki-100-I?

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Post #: 2636
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 10:47:38 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Hey Poultry Man! Glad to see your comment and Post.

I'm actually only building 44 a month. I took all the build lines and advanced them to the -61 II and then on the 100.

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Post #: 2637
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 10:50:18 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Here are the rest (slower) of the CV/CVL:







OK. I'll bite. This is too many carriers for one TF, John. You oughta break this up a bit.


That TF is a masterwork of brilliance and coordination! I, personally, like a single TF of 15 CV/CVL operating together. Nothing troublesome would ever become of this. RIGHT??!!

Makes about as much sense as putting EVERY ship you have into one hex and traveling along with an invincible CAP to protect you...

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Post #: 2638
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 11:10:10 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		With Dan gone I find it amazing to watch Posts still being made on his AAR! Must be a very loyal group of supporters over there...


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Post #: 2639
RE: An exercise... - 12/14/2016 11:50:38 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		Dan has posted once or twice from Florida.

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Post #: 2640
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