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RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 5:59:45 PM

John 3rd

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Here is the plan for dealing with some of the Allied Forces in SW Sulawasi.

The goal is to kill the troops at Makassar: an Aussie Corps HQ, 1st Aust ID and two other units. I choose Makassar because of terrain and NO FORTS built. It also has a Sz-3 Port (for a fast escape if needed). If we can destroy the units there without danger from an incoming Allied Fleet then we move on Watampone.

Assault Force:
Corps HQ
19th ID (426 AV)
2nd TK (460 AV)
32nd Ind Mixed Brigade (226 AV)
34th Ind Mixed Brigade (184 AV)

Cut-Off Unit to keep the units from retreating towards Watampone:
124th Inf Reg (150 AV)

Attachment (1)

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RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 9:19:29 PM

adarbrauner

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Another toast for the successful bombing run. Prosit!

If there are infantry units in the incoming reinforcements, I'd amph drop them adjiacent to Makassar, to save time.

THIS PLAN seems sound. At least we're going for some good clear profit, whatever the consequences moreover. (I like it very much Sir; THIS is the way to cause problems and concerns to CR-Allied!)

On the subject, when you write to reinforce in deep your garrisons, i'd like if given leave, to express following thoughts:

1- you cannot garrison of course everywhere; as well known, and as expressed by Hans and others previously, all what CR needs is a decent squared surface to base his air forces and then to proceed. He could probably even have enough allowance to invade 2 or three spots, very lightly defended, and embed them with the appropriate support to sustain air operations, while keeping possibly you busy with a major invasion on a more important location in same area.

Where this could happen? Well, if he shall keep his main Carriers force where's now, so then DEI-Philippines (including Palau?)is best candidate; Western Malay is in range, but much unprobable; Haiphong-Tonkin: that would be deal breaker for the Allies, but I don't believe CR is willing to do it, he's too scary of you, yes he is he definitely is, and cautius; Formosa would be even riskier;

the vast number of spots in the arcipelagus favors CR but favors us as well, in the sense that it favors counter attacks and counter invasions from the other close spots and islands, possibly by night, once Cr has shown up his cards, exactly as done here in Sulawesi-Celebes that can serve as prototype;

If allowed to further elaborate, i'd point out to you the idea to assign some Fast Reaction Forces, with necessary and adequate transports on hand, which serves as garrisons as well up until the main attacks, similarly as done here in Celebes. Every unit should be competent for certain designated targets close to it (BTW do you have LSTs-Barges?).

About Allied advanced airplane bases: much unfortunately he's already too much in DEI; those in Sulawesi, you're going to take care of, hopefully; any thought to pay, eventually and somehow, a"visit" to Allied garrisoning trops at Ambon, Boeala, or the Moluccas?

In relation to the screenshot showing position of Main Carries Fleet: does this mean that NoPac and Western Pac are now free hunting areas?

I'd like to see the reaction of CR when the KB is spotted north of Midway.....

(BTW: how many recon planes has it costed you to sniff around Townsville?)

All the best, keep well and good wishes for the new year

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 1/3/2017 9:20:04 PM >

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Post #: 2762

RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:12:47 PM

adarbrauner

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Actually i see many different bright dots on DEI, for example on the islands on Makassar Strait;
in my eyes these resambles rip crops ready for harvest;

whta did CR think of, to drop the eggs and leave them unattended, with a more than healthy Japanese army and navy around (and this may be good for Marshalls and Aleutians too)?

Now we know why the US did not pursue this tactic in the war back in the days.

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 1/3/2017 10:17:20 PM >

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RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:25:05 PM

John 3rd

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Great POST with sound advice and thinking.

I've thought about a wide-ranging 'hunt' with Kido Butai just to terrify/shock him; however, that costs fuel. YES--I--actually said that readers.

Currently I have my main group of AOs loading at Manila and they carry about 90,000 fuel. That is plenty for an extended raid but--big but--after that I have to find the fuel to refill them. The Kido Butai is at Etorofu (10 CV and 1 CVL: 650 Planes) and is waiting for the refit to finish on 2 CAs and a BC as well as CV Ryukaku (took a Torp about 2 months ago). Air Groups are fantastic presently and I have great confidence in using them. In my present mode I want to hold this unit back and replace my A6M8 with MISTER SAM. That being said, I raid would be somewhat safe where my M8s would still be good to use.

There is also a cache of 4 AOs at Cocos. They have about 25,000 Fuel and I am about to head fake Dan by approaching Sulawasi to be SEEN. My newest CVs just arrived and have joined CV Akagi. This force is now 3 CV and 3 CVL (350+ Planes). Should serve to confuse Dan as to my CV presence and location. Hopefully it keeps him nervous as to launching operations. They will fly a strike or two at Makassar using Kates and then 'retire' towards Singapore. In reality they will then head down to Cocos and be positioned to blast any convoy traveling the edge of the mapboard.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:27:12 PM

John 3rd

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The convoy coming in carries 2nd TK. They'll unload at Pare Pare and move due south. They'll move quickly so it shouldn't be a big deal.

Cannot land at any location unless it is a dot or base.

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Post #: 2765

RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:31:32 PM

John 3rd

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Looking at the reinforcements, I see a ton of them coming in at various locations. Two ID are about to arrive in Hokkaido (nice) another Brigade is about to come into Formosa (nice again). Several other Regiment/Brigade reinforcements are due within 30-45 days. Many of these have to go to Bangkok to replace the soon to be dissolved (140 Days) THAI Army. Just got the arrival of a CRAPLOAD of Base Forces. Gonna take about 8-10 to strengthen points in Balikpapan, Tarakan, Philippines, and Brunei. Have another 7-9 Base Forces to move as well. Will find home for them as well.

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Post #: 2766

RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:38:32 PM

John 3rd

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Staying on the subject of reinforcements...

I am getting a CRAPLOAD of new Daitai and Sentai right now! LOTS of IJN and IJA Bombers, Fighters, and Misc. units. The Home Islands feel like they are bursting at the seems. The XP is so-so with these pilots but train--train--train is what we need to do with them. Have got LOTS of pilots training right now and keeping up with my air losses without too much issue. Rather surprising. Just had a huge amount of re-sizes take place through units already in the game. Many went from 27--36 and a bunch went up 48. This serves to help a lot as well.

In some ways it is very exciting to move into this phase of game because playing this deep into really opens a person's eyes.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:47:09 PM

adarbrauner

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Did the oil wells dry off??

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Post #: 2768

RE: March 1944 - 1/3/2017 10:56:37 PM

John 3rd

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I am shipping every ounce that I can OUT as fast as possible. Thought I'd lose access to Balikpapan and Tarakan a month ago. I'm taking this as a windfall for as long as possible.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 1:06:56 AM

Bif1961

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The more you press offensive actions in DEI the more he will pause offensive actions waiting for the mighty KB to make it's appearance. This will allow you to get oil even more oil and fuel.

< Message edited by Bif1961 -- 1/4/2017 1:07:14 AM >

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 10:01:05 AM

adarbrauner

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2 things;

1- I've never made it so far in the game as where you are now, but i am just shocked that you're experiencing some fuel shortage while detaining full command of the oil and refineries region, besides that your main fleet has been inactive for past few months; is that normal to happen this late in game?

2- if this the current fuel situation, what then it shall be in 6 months or more from now? If so shouldn't it be better to make any use of Main FLeet now before repairing in HI and inactivity due to fuel shortage?

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 12:58:40 PM

adarbrauner

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Regarding China;

the impression is that THIS is the time to commit forces and supply reserves and move into offensive.

Reasons:

The soon to be full open Burma road and the intact and firm deploymet of the chinese army may prompt CR to plan and build for a general offensive in China, not now, but in 5-6 months from now; we are talking of a fully geared Chinese army + several allied units supported by an amount of air power not seen before; I think that CR is very well suited to such deep, wide front operations. More over, he's gifted with very good foreseeing and situation assessment, therefore there is high risk he may opt for such course; this course may lead to a general collapse of all of our Army array in China that may see the Allies in Shanhai and Bejing before the end of the year, and at that point we shall be at the end of the dessert.

What in my opinion is needed to do, is to mount a violent broad front offensive, in a short time. Objectives: primary, seizing of the southern Kunming region and approach to Burma, and then the northern one if possible . secondary, disrupt, encircle, maul as many chinese units as possible all along the front, wherever the possibility may arise. We need NOW a weak chinese army. A broad front, deep battle and thrust may well induce confusion and paralisys on CR , not been able to know very well where to bring in reinforcments and reserves until they may be overcome.
This requires necessarily a firm and (faked) aggressive stance in Burma, to engage and pin there as much allied units as possible before they move into China. It requires also a major and massive use of Army air assets, unfortunately.
I hope your HR allows for strat bombing of Chinese cities.
You also mentioned you received many new land reinforcements; I don't know how many and their status and of the squad-armaments and devices pools, whether present or soon to be expected;
Yes, we are talking of a major diversion of air assets and usage of supply reserves from DEI-Philippines to the Chinese-Burmese theater, something serious.

The alternative is to concede that the situation there is already compromised, and that's a waist of forces and resources in light of the soon to come major offensives in the DEI-Philippiones or elsewhere;
and that what remains to us is to make best use in China of what we have already, waiting, hoping in CR's mistakes and bargain time somewhow; I personally prefer the first alternative, if I want to give a stronger chance to victory; I also have the feelings that our air assets may find better usage in China and achieve better results in comparison to other theaters, also from a strategic point of view ( airplanes losses suffered against air operations stategic impact on the general course of operations).

I understand that this is big organizational and managing additonal burden for you;

you also wrote previously in your AAR that you were not seeking to do too much or advance further on in China because you saw this as non historical;

in fact, IJA sized the Kunming approaches to Burma from Chinese side in the war, and even in relatively late war launched a renewed and successful offensive aimed to seize the rear areas used by US bombers;

As conclusive note, in ANY CASE, the Haiphong area should be urgently secured, this being the first and foremost urgency in the area.

I hope I've not talked non sense or exeedingly.

Best,
Adar

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 1/4/2017 1:21:54 PM >

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 1:13:05 PM

Chickenboy

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The more Dan 'ignores' the fate of his troops on Sulawesi, the more I am convinced that you are hitting a tar baby. "No, no, Brer Fox-don't throw me into the brambles!" If he can, by sacrificing his troops on SW Celebes, tie up your theatre reserves for two to four weeks (do the math with transit time to and from and ground travel time and multiple assaults), I believe that he will do it. Dan has never shied from a dramatic sacrifice of his pixeltruppen to distract or to delay.

The buildup at Townsville is interesting, John. How's Rabaul, Port Moresby, Truk and P/NG in general set for defense? He may be trying to shore up his SE front instead of plunging headlong into the meatgrinder that is the central DEI.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 1:43:41 PM

adarbrauner

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ChickenBoy: I'd give up Rabaul and Port Moresby if attacked (and I'm pretty convinced CR isn't interested in them at all). Truk, unfortunately, is undefendable and I would not invest any penny more in its defense.

If CR is giving the opportunity to destroy some of his prized land units (crazy), so well and thanks for the gift, you're invited to provide for more.

Yes there is a possibility that the two good divisions in Sulawesi shall be isolated there, but:

1-John 3d has a good balanced plan there, he's going to eat the cake slice by slice. When he's finished with Makassar (and this could take from 6 to 12 days only), he can reassess whether to relocate or moving to another objective.

2 - Land units, once landed cannot be sunk clearly; even if a major US carrier fleet pops up there preventing the redeployment of the units to another region targeted, we at least have time to "finish the job" with the other stacks in the island. Also, closeness of Java and Borneo (or even more southern islands) is such, that CR shall nedd to keep constant and close guard in the spot, or invade and occupy all of the afore mentioned, to prevent a complete retriaval of such units; moreover, and in this context, the failed occupation of Celebes and its protracted hold by the japanese is not so well conductive for further development of allied advance in the region and isolation of rear garrisons.

briefly, Celebes invasion was a disaster, and John 3D reacted superbly, swiftly and with the optimal timing.

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 1/4/2017 1:46:49 PM >

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 1:56:54 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner
ChickenBoy: I'd give up Rabaul and Port Moresby if attacked (and I'm pretty convinced CR isn't interested in them at all). Truk, unfortunately, is undefendable and I would not invest any penny more in its defense.

For the late war Japanese player, it's not enough to wave one's hand and say, "You can have them". Typically, these locations are garrisoned with reasonably good troops in 1942 and 1943. If nothing else, Rabaul and Truk usually have good theatre naval and air support units that are irreplaceable. If John doesn't get them out they will be (at best) sidelined for the rest of the war or (at worst) destroyed in situ.

Extrication of redundant Japanese forces is an art form in the late war period. You want enough shipping to get out prized units intact, but not too much shipping that will merit an Allied naval response. Deep Allied penetrations interfere with the former, leading to large numbers of capable Japanese forces being cut off for the balance of the war-just like in real life.

So, it's not whether you invest more in the aforementioned defenses. It's whether you invest at all in the aforementioned defenses. What you invest you will lose. What can you afford to lose to slow down the Allies? Where do you want to make the sacrifices? Why?

Why would you 'give up' Rabaul and Port Moresby (particularly the former) if attacked? Won't Rabaul delay the Allies by some weeks / months if they come up the eastern P/NG corridor? There is some value to these locations? What will it take to make the Allies commit to that butcher's bill?

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 3:07:06 PM

adarbrauner

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I'd pull out valuable theatre support assets from Rabaul and PtMoresby if still present, yes i would. The see lanes there are still reasonably under Japanese control.
What would they remain there for?

This is time for painful but courageus decisions.

New Guinea has to be considered out of the defensive perimeter, with the exception maybe of its Northern Edge.

there's simply too much on the stake elsewhere. CR can strike anywhere, from Kurilis to Malay-Sumatra, and the situation in China is of the greatest concern and alarm.

Posts like Rabaul, PtMoresby, Northern Australia etc serve as best, now, to provide unvaluable advanced recon facilities + other occasional services, such as harbor if needed, maybe advanced base for subs, et similia.

Main US Carriers Fleet is unstoppable moment being, and if it really wants to sail almost up to Tokyo bay, it can. It is deterred, moment being only by logistical concerns (and by CR's over cautiousness).

CR, is to be assumed, is fully aware of it, therefore his strategy is to create progressively advanced logistical bases (and he's partially failing in it meanwhile, luckily).

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 1/4/2017 3:20:18 PM >

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 3:18:18 PM

adarbrauner

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To evacuate Truk and Marshalls?

In my opinion, not now.

Yes, there's the risk they shall be cut off in following months, on the other side they still retain operative value.

We were discussing/suggesting counter invasions or raids against Marshall Allied garrisons, for example, exploiting the inabilty of main Us Fleets to be everywhere.

A point in keeping these advanced outposts whether not maybe, in my opinion, in how much fuel and supply should be required to to keep their residual value, in the light of Japan's limited availabilty of the goods and their acute need for greater and more important thaters

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 1/4/2017 3:37:03 PM >

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 3:42:28 PM

John 3rd

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

The more Dan 'ignores' the fate of his troops on Sulawesi, the more I am convinced that you are hitting a tar baby. "No, no, Brer Fox-don't throw me into the brambles!" If he can, by sacrificing his troops on SW Celebes, tie up your theatre reserves for two to four weeks (do the math with transit time to and from and ground travel time and multiple assaults), I believe that he will do it. Dan has never shied from a dramatic sacrifice of his pixeltruppen to distract or to delay.

The buildup at Townsville is interesting, John. How's Rabaul, Port Moresby, Truk and P/NG in general set for defense? He may be trying to shore up his SE front instead of plunging headlong into the meatgrinder that is the central DEI.

I have been pulling troops out of there for months now. All three of the bases listed above in your Post are OK. PM is very hard to supply but fine. The Lae AF Complex is solid in that I just delivered 30,000 supply. It does not have a ton of Infantry support but LOOKS (by recon) very impressive. Got a substantial presense at Hollandia and Madang.

Dan's proclivity to let troops be destroyed has always amazed me. Your worry about 'abandoning' these troops nags at me every turn; however, I shall take the risk hoping for a quick result. 2nd TK just started unloading at Pare Pare. The TF has a lot of ships so I expect a 1 day unload.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/4/2017 6:33:24 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

2 things;

1- I've never made it so far in the game as where you are now, but i am just shocked that you're experiencing some fuel shortage while detaining full command of the oil and refineries region, besides that your main fleet has been inactive for past few months; is that normal to happen this late in game?

2- if this the current fuel situation, what then it shall be in 6 months or more from now? If so shouldn't it be better to make any use of Main FLeet now before repairing in HI and inactivity due to fuel shortage?

Japanese fuel resources are finite. Many players experiences are similar to yours and they have not experienced the issue because so few games go past 1944. The Japanese player need to think about fuel use from day one. Because you will always want to use more than you can afford. However, there is a big price to pay in 1944/45 for slinging your fleet all over the board in 1942. Those BBs and carriers eat a lot of fuel. For Japan there is only so much money in the bank.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 12:01:38 AM

John 3rd

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This is why I have the two main portions of the Fleet at/near the Home Islands and in the DEI. Fuel is quick to do there but does draw down what then heads for home.

One of the biggest advantages I have had so far is Dan's lack of success versus my Tankers. No tanker war as of yet. My escort for the Singapore--Hiroshima and Manila--Osaka Tankers is getting pretty impressive.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 12:04:40 AM

John 3rd

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I lost my internet today and had to get it repaired by a very unlucky Century Link man. We have the beginnings of a blizzard going on. Just heard the forecast is now 6-12" which should be a lot of fun. Do LOVE snow! There is a reason I live in Colorado baby.

I was re-writing the earlier Post when I lost the internet so I shall post it now:

I have been pulling troops out of there for months now. All three of the bases listed above in your Post are OK. PM is very hard to supply but fine. The Lae AF Complex is solid in that I just delivered 30,000 supply. It does not have a ton of Infantry support but LOOKS (by recon) very impressive. Got a substantial presense at Hollandia and Madang.

There are several Naval HQ at Truk that MUST be pulled out. There are two convoys leaving Manila presently who are tasked with doing that. Just got the 1st Air Fleet HQ pulled from Rabaul and it is nearly at Mindanao. Concur about pulling troops out being an art form. I like to leave just enough to FORCE an Amphib Landing. Dan tried to take Tabitueau about two weeks ago and--get this--two IJN Inf Companys (AV 24 between them) completely destroyed an American Base Force. No bombardment of any sort and just an APA and PC hauling the troops. It was a nice, tasty haul of 1,300 US troops.

Dan's proclivity to let troops be destroyed has always amazed me. Your worry about 'abandoning' these troops nags at me every turn; however, I shall take the risk hoping for a quick result. 2nd TK just started unloading at Pare Pare. The TF has a lot of ships so I expect a 1 day unload.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 12:59:09 AM

Anachro

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I was in Telluride, CO the last few days for xmas vacation and got out of Dodge just in time.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 2:06:54 AM

Bif1961

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I also find his attitude about abandoning 100,000+ troops more Germanic then Allied, but so is the spirit of the game to fight a historic struggle your own way.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 4:27:38 AM

John 3rd

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They are predicting that Aspen will get THREE FEET of snow with Steamboat Springs getting JUST 24". Very nice.

Concur Bif.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 11:17:25 AM

ny59giants

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Meanwhile, they are already freaking out over "MAYBE" up to 1 inch of snow tonight here in NE Tennessee.

The county schools will be closed tomorrow due it being more up on the mountain roads. It has given me a chuckle or two since I moved 'south' in '92.

Signed,
former upstate NYer and native Vermonter

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 1:11:39 PM

HansBolter

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It's 65 degrees at 9:00 am in St. Petersburg guys.....

We had a 'cold' night last night dipping below 60.

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 1:20:29 PM

ny59giants

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Flatlander....

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RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 2:48:30 PM

John 3rd

Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline

More like...SOUTHERNER...we're hale and hardy folks up here in the big CO.

The storm fizzled. We ended up with about 6-7" with a few more today as it moves out. No big deal. My 7th and 5th Graders were very disappointed that school was not cancelled!

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Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

(in reply to ny59giants)

Post #: 2788

RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 3:54:46 PM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Flatlander....

Isn't that the truth. My parents moved our family to St. Petersburg from Pennsylvania when I was 4.

I live in the house I grew up in and have not traveled much.

I visited John 3rds neck of the woods about 10 years ago and my drive in the rental car from the Denver airport to Fort Collins was spent with me gaping at the looming mountain range on my western horizon.

I spent the entire three day business trip with my mouth wide open gaping at those awe inspiring mountains!

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Hans

(in reply to ny59giants)

Post #: 2789

RE: March 1944 - 1/5/2017 4:22:52 PM

Lecivius

Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

I was in Telluride, CO the last few days for xmas vacation and got out of Dodge just in time.

That's home, for me

That condo at the bottom of the V on the ski slopes belongs to the family.

Snow is fizzling, but it's icy down south in Littleton John. Don't go out unless you need to

(in reply to Anachro)

Post #: 2790