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The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 5:54:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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Memorial Church
Stanford University
Palo Alto, California
22 November 1940


“We’re out of time, John. We’ve been shortsighted. Foolishly shortsighted. And now we’re out of time.”

Rear Admiral Walter S. Anderson looked discouraged and tired. He sat stiffly in an uncomfortable pew, eyes closed, basking in diffused-but-colorful light streaming in through a stained-glass window. The 59-year-old Director of Naval Intelligence was fretting over the unimaginable turn of events during the past four years.

“First the Great Depression. Then the unilateral repudiation of the Washington Treaty. Then the Roscoe Filburn Rebellion. The hardliners and isolationists got their way. Japan called our bluff and drew an inside straight. Budget cuts forced reductions in staffing and sharply limited intelligence operations. Our information about the Japanese navy is dated. I have reason to believe our assessments are wildly inaccurate, seriously – dramatically – underestimating the number of capital ships. Japan has been very, very busy the last two years, and now they’re coming for us. We know they are, but we don’t know how hard they can come.”

Commander (Ret.) John Harper knew what Anderson meant. The United States, embroiled in civil strife since the riots provoked by the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, had turned inward, focusing on restoring order and getting a handle on economy. In doing so, the nation had let down its guard. Budget cuts had forced reductions in staff and sharply reduced intelligence operations, leaving the Navy almost blind. And it had happened at the worst possible moment.

For the first time since they had entered the church 10 minutes earlier, Harper spoke: “When I retired in ’38, Admiral, we knew that the Japanese had laid down keels for at least four additional cruisers and three carriers. Do I understand you correctly? We don’t have any additional information on those ships since then? We have no idea whether they have been completed, nor how many more might be underway?”

“That’s it, John. We know very little about their navy,” Anderson admitted. “And it doesn’t stop there. We suspect Japan accelerated research into more advanced fighters. We also think they’re expanding the army. The extent of our ignorance is revealed by two other concerns. Are the Japanese developing four-engine, long-range bombers? I can tell you that Lt. Commander Sturmhund thinks they are. And have the Japanese developed long-range patrol aircraft that can be launched from and recovered by submarines?”

“Sturmhund was always rather excitable on that subject,” Harper said, smiling briefly. “I doubt the Japanese will engage in strategic bombing on a scale that we might be capable of if we get our heads on straight. But I worked on the sub-launched patrol plane assessment. I’m telling you I think they’ve done it. Those patrol planes are fast and can remain aloft an entire day. I think the Japs can park a sub anywhere in the Pacific and cover 360 degrees out to a radius of 100 miles in 12 hours. It’s crazy. It sounds like the kind of thing Sturmhund would dream up. But I think the Japanese have that capability.”

“Then we need to pause a moment, John. Let's make use of this handsome facility. It’s past time we started praying.”
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 5:58:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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Rodeo Beach
Sausalito, California
29 November 1940


Rear Admiral Walter S. Anderson made his decision against a backdrop of booming surf. A winter storm was moving ashore, roiling the Pacific Ocean into a frothy maelstrom. He was here to walk. To think. To sort through things before his promotion took effect.

Naval Intelligence, Anderson reflected, needed Harper. Two years ago, Harper had left the Navy to teach history at Stanford University. But now, since the unfortunate – unbelievable, actually – demise of Rear Admiral Cochran, Harper had become indispensible to the Navy. He was the only one familiar with Cochran’s widely discredited analysis of Japanese military capabilities. Since Cochran had died in a freak Ferris wheel accident, however, Harper must be brought back to active duty, willing or not.

Cochran’s report was the nightmare imaginings of a Poe-like opium fiend, Anderson thought. We all figured he suffered some kind of psychotic childhood fantasy involving ships Japan couldn’t build, airplanes Japan couldn’t could fly, unstoppable divisions that Japan couldn’t muster, and god-like omniscience about the American military that no mortal could have.

Anderson wondered whether Cochran might have been some kind of savant. Where had he gotten his information? Anderson wasn’t sure, but made a mental note to put his hand’s on Cochran’s report, “Reluctant Admiral.” He’d read it. Then he’d make the phone call that would bring Harper back into the fold.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/30/2012 6:03:46 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 6:05:37 PM   
Houtje

 

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Here's looking forward to another great AAR; good luck to both of you!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 6:28:00 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Rodeo Beach
Sausalito, California
29 November 1940



Curious. Why would a Pacific Ocean storm be roiling the waves on the Eastern side of the Marin Peninsula? Sausalito sees very little wave action because of its protective positioning. The Marin 'headlands' or the Stinson beach area would be more prone to heavy surf.

Now, there is a Rodeo Cove on the Western side of the Marin Peninsula, but it's not in Sausalito.

Already enjoying your AAR, CR. I'm on board.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 6:54:58 PM   
obvert


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I'm in.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 6:59:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
4 April 1941

Commander John Cole Harper flipped through the stack of telegrams and letters piled on his desk.

There were well wishes from his students, like good ol' Houtje, a transfer student from the Netherlands.  Houtje hoped the trip from San Francisco to Pearl Harbor had gone well and that he (Harper) wouldn't miss the academic world too much. 

Another student wrote a more caustic missive.  This student, Harper recalled, had been dubbed "Poultry Lad" by roughhousing dorm mates who liked to pin him to the floor, pull his legs, and then cast erotic wishes for weekend conquests.  Harper glanced through the letter and noted that "PL" was expressing some confusion over the location of Rodeo Beach.  In a lecture earlier that year, Harper had offhandedly noted that the beach was "in Sausalito," to give students a general reference point.  PL, however, had insisted that Sausalito was on the bay side while Rodeo was on the ocean side.

Harper tossed PL's letter aside, deciding he probably didn't have the necessary time to clarify things for the bright yet eccentric student.

Then Harper flipped through the pile of intelligence assessments on his desk.  There were crytpic requests for information about obscure places like Socatra and Coal Harbor (did anybody really think the latter - a small port at the north tip of Vancouver Island - could play a key role in a Pacific War?).  There were summaries of the new Australian coastwatcher program that seemed to hold much promise.  There were the usual troop deployment suggestions, ranging from a need for base force personnel in Darwin to artillery at Pago Pago.  And there were the big questions:  Whether to reinforce Singapore.  How to supply the Chinese.  Where to send the American carriers.

Harper set the paperwork aside.  He was anxious to begin work on Fleet Problem XXI, but first he had to dress for a dinner aboard the Colorado.  That wasn't such a bad way to re-immerse himself in the Navy.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/1/2012 9:31:41 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 7:09:14 PM   
Cribtop


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Woo Hoo! Well, Dan, given John's reputation you should finally get your wish of being pushed to the wall.

This time I'm fully in on your AAR and will reluctantly (pun intended) avoid reading John's. We can try guess his crazy schemes together!

Lt. Commander Stormhund indeed. Nice.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 7:28:39 PM   
ny59giants


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Opposite of Cribtop, I'll say good luck to you now Dan and restrict myself to John's AAR. Somebody has to keep a short leash on him.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 7:56:18 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In a lecture earlier that year, Harper had offhandedly noted that the beach was "in Sausalito," to give students a general reference point.  PL, however, had insisted that Sausalito was on the bay side while Rodeo was on the ocean side.


No. The lecture in question was dated November 1940. Harper can't presuppose PL's harassment in his April missives, can he? If so, he is a truly gifted intelligence officer.

What month are we in? What year are we in? Are we facing East or West? I'm so confused...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 8:38:57 PM   
Canoerebel


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Harper, like Anderson, was given to referring to the location of Rodeo Beach as "Sausalito" since that's the closest town and an easy reference point for all except crazed Golden Gophers.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 8:50:37 PM   
pws1225

 

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Good luck CR, but as a dedicated JFB, not too much I hope. This should be a great game. Have fun.

Regards, Paul

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 9:19:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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Headquarters
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
8 July 1941
 
Harper leaned back, rubbed his eyes, and ran a quick mental check of the wargames he had participated in since returning to active duty.

There were the matches against opponents dubbed "Q-Ball," "Chez," and "PzH."  Each had been challenging.  Each had taken wildly improbable turns that few believed could be replicated in a real war.

Q-Ball, Harper recalled, had even invaded India.  That was a silly notion, yet it proved difficult for the "Allies" to stop.  Things had looked pretty bleak, but eventually the Allies turned the tables and appeared likely to win the war.  That particular war game had ended prematurely when Q-Ball had been reassigned to work on a war game focused on a mythical clash between Russia and Germany.

Chez had proved conservative, allowing the Allies to turn Sumatra into a tremendous redoubt.  That was so ridiculous that the officer commanding that match had it terminated.

The contest against PzH had proven as entertaining as it was unlikely.  That was the occasion in which odd places like Coal Harbor and Cocos Island had proven so important.  Under mysterious circumstances, though, PzH had been recalled from active duty, thus ending the match before anything decisive had taken place.  Last report was that he had been billeted to a post in Stockholm.

Now Harper was about to engage in a match to test Cochran's old Reluctant Admiral hypothesis.  Harper was familiar with the scenario, in general, but knew he would have to take time to memorize the order of battle.  And what about the opponent?  Harper knew he was as aggressive as Q-Ball and PzH, but believed there were some weaknesses that might be exploited.  He began jotting down this thoughts:

a.  As always, China will be a target.  And yet, probably not on the level of PzH.  The "Japanese commander" will fight for the usual cities, but probably doesn't have the interest level to go "all out" in China.  He's a sea war guy.  Not a land war guy.  That's good.

b.  He'll go all out in the Pacific.  That's where his heart is.  With his ships.  He likes the Aleutians.  He likes Samoa.  He loves New Caledonia.  He's coming.  Decide whether to meet him or fight elsewhere.

c.  He'll be organized, especially early.  He'll roll through the Philippines, Malaya, and Burma in good order.  But these theaters offer opportunties to sting and stymie.

d.  He is prone, at times, to overcomit to places he wants but doesn't necessarily need.  Identify a few places to "over protect" to frustrate him.  Cocos Island in the Indian Ocean is a prime possibility.

e.  He likes to split his carriers.  This can kill him.  Does he have enough "extra goodies" in Reluctant Admiral to cover this weakness?  Possibly.

f.  Auto Victory:  Not nearly as likely as the games against Q-Ball and PzH.  Too aggressive giving the Allies too many points.  I think. 



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/1/2012 9:32:31 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 9:37:51 PM   
Houtje

 

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I wonder, does the title of your AAR refer to the ethical theories of ancient Stoicism? I.e., only the soul is either good or bad, and all other things (health, life, possessions etc.) are indifferent.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 9:44:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 9:59:03 PM   
Houtje

 

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I'm guessing 'no', then. Just one of those coincidences.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 10:19:00 PM   
BBfanboy


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More likely a reference to the Clint Eastwood "spaghetti western" [i.e. made in Italy] movie "The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly". You may not be familiar with it if you are young or if it was never offered with a Dutch translation.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 10:25:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Houtje, I was so struck by your question that I'll be mulling it over for hours.  Maybe days.

Okay, so that's the Stoics?  How about the Epicureans?

BBFanboy is right, though.  This is a play off the old Clint Eastwood movie for no other reason than I liked the sound of it.  :)  Kind of puts me in my place, though.  Some people are thinking on the level of ancient Greek philosophies.  I'm operating on the level of a spaghetti western.  (But a good movie with an awesome sound track.)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 10:31:55 PM   
pws1225

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, so that's the Stoics?  How about the Epicureans?



The good, the fat, the sleepy?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 10:36:31 PM   
Houtje

 

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Ah, yes of course: that movie is actually a favourite of mine ("You dig.") Well, to summarize the Epicureans and further derail this thread: only pleasure is good, only pain is bad.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 11:23:35 PM   
jeffk3510


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Looking forward, as always!

Dan..I was trying to get some trucks home from your area today...boy howdy I had a blast...

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Currently chasing three kids around the Midwest.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/30/2012 11:46:43 PM   
desicat

 

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RA is designed to give the Japanese a big lift in starting strength and striking power. I'm not familiar with the specifics but his hammer is a lot bigger in the beginning months. Since John was in on the design you can imagine this plays out many of his "Banzai" dreams.

Of course the Allies are given a few bones, if they make any difference at the start is a mystery to me.

How do you plan on countering things at the beginning? I get the feeling that the IJN improvements are massive but the land based contingent hasn't received the same attention. So as he strikes further and deeper in his initial attacks how can you take advantage?

I would think that open ocean and sea lanes are places for you to avoid as he looks to cash in his RA 5 advantages (I see him heading for NZ and cruising the coast of OZ with one group while raiding in the IO with another), if you get any extra toys would a trap in the Aleutians be possible?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/1/2012 8:15:55 AM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Headquarters
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
8 July 1940
 
Harper leaned back, rubbed his eyes, and ran a quick mental check of the wargames he had participated in since returning to active duty.

There were the matches against opponents dubbed "Q-Ball," "Chez," and "PzH."  Each had been challenging.  Each had taken wildly improbable turns that few believed could be replicated in a real war.

Q-Ball, Harper recalled, had even invaded India.  That was a silly notion, yet it proved difficult for the "Allies" to stop.  Things had looked pretty bleak, but eventually the Allies turned the tables and appeared likely to win the war.  That particular war game had ended prematurely when Q-Ball had been reassigned to work on a war game focused on a mythical clash between Russia and Germany.

Chez had proved conservative, allowing the Allies to turn Sumatra into a tremendous redoubt.  That was so ridiculous that the officer commanding that match had it terminated.

The contest against PzH had proven as entertaining as it was unlikely.  That was the occasion in which odd places like Coal Harbor and Cocos Island had proven so important.  Under mysterious circumstances, though, PzH had been recalled from active duty, thus ending the match before anything decisive had taken place.  Last report was that he had been billeted to a post in Stockholm.

Now Harper was about to engage in a match to test Cochran's old Reluctant Admiral hypothesis.  Harper was familiar with the scenario, in general, but knew he would have to take time to memorize the order of battle.  And what about the opponent?  Harper knew he was as aggressive as Q-Ball and PzH, but believed there were some weaknesses that might be exploited.  He began jotting down this thoughts:

a.  As always, China will be a target.  And yet, probably not on the level of PzH.  The "Japanese commander" will fight for the usual cities, but probably doesn't have the interest level to go "all out" in China.  He's a sea war guy.  Not a land war guy.  That's good.

b.  He'll go all out in the Pacific.  That's where his heart is.  With his ships.  He likes the Aleutians.  He likes Samoa.  He loves New Caledonia.  He's coming.  Decide whether to meet him or fight elsewhere.

c.  He'll be organized, especially early.  He'll roll through the Philippines, Malaya, and Burma in good order.  But these theaters offer opportunties to sting and stymie.

d.  He is prone, at times, to overcomit to places he wants but doesn't necessarily need.  Identify a few places to "over protect" to frustrate him.  Cocos Island in the Indian Ocean is a prime possibility.

e.  He likes to split his carriers.  This can kill him.  Does he have enough "extra goodies" in Reluctant Admiral to cover this weakness?  Possibly.

f.  Auto Victory:  Not nearly as likely as the games against Q-Ball and PzH.  Too aggressive giving the Allies too many points.  I think. 



Harper had a reputation withing the navy as well.

His exploits in exercises gamed at the Academy had caused uproar, who in his right mind would turn Palembang into a Fortress, invade the Kuriles, and in a previous lifetime threatened to invade the Phillipines only to fall on some volcanic rock named Iwo Jima and turned it into the Gibraltar of the Pacific.

Harper indeed had the warped and twisted mind suitable to take on the evil empire.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/1/2012 9:50:33 AM   
Canoerebel


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Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
10 August 1941


What the heck? Harper was still rubbing his chin in amazment. One of the observor corps assigned to grade the Reluctant Admiral war game had one heck of a memory. Harper hadn't even remembered the guy, but the guy had certainly remembered him. At the conclusion of Reluctant Admiral, he had taken Harper aside and commented on one of Harper's exercises while at the Naval Academy 12 years ago! He had remembered Harper's plan to counterinvade the Philippines early (Harper recalled the name of the operation, Red Planet) and that Harper had later transformed the mission into an invasion of the Volcano Islands. Crazy that somebody whould have such a memory!

Now that Red Admiral was complete, Harper was working on his assessment. While the exercise seemed far-fetched in the extreme, there were benefits in exploring the "margins and map edges" of militiary capabilities.

In the event of a Red Admiral war scenario, Harper concluded a Portal Defense was optimal:

1. The Indian Ocean is the likely "portal" to victory for the Allies. Therefore, islands like Cocos, Diego and Attu take on increased importance. Garrison them early and heavily. Try to work on the Andamans and Ceylon, but don't risk too much too far forward.

2. Use Allied carrier-based air liberally in the DEI early in the war. Base them in places like Java. Fight hard in the DEI.

3. Send American ground forces to India and Australia early.

4. Maintain surface combat forces in the Pacific to keep the enemy somewhat honest, but don't try to contest the open waters of the Pacific in any meaningful way. The Japanese will come in overwhelming power to fight for places that really aren't that important. Hawaii, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Fiji and similar places aren't strategically signficant.

5. Attend early to Victoria Island to keep the enemy honest in NoPac. The Aluetians are a possible target. But like the big islands in the southern Pacific, the Aleutians aren't as important as establishing the Portal defenses.

6. Divert as many Chinese troops as possible into Burma to serve as a buffer and possibly to contribute to the defense of the Calcutta region.

7. The war will develop fast and furious. It is possible to get overwhelmed early. By early summer of 1942, the situation will begin to stabalize as the Allies should have enough troops to secure India and Australia against conquest.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/1/2012 4:21:47 PM   
bradfordkay

 

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I would think that Harper is going to be slightly distracted today...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/1/2012 4:38:36 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The Japanese will come in overwhelming power to fight for places that really aren't that important. Hawaii, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Fiji and similar places aren't strategically signficant.


Individually, none of these goals is *the* strategic end game that a successful conquest of India or Australia would be. However, taken in total, would there not be sufficient points in the combined VP values of Hawaii, NZ, New Caledonia, Fiji and a handful of other goals?

Be interesting to run the math. It may not be such an assumed fool's errand if this could merit an AV.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/1/2012 7:58:24 PM   
Encircled


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Sounds very similar to your last couple of games.

If he guesses that you will do the same thing, then it could get very interesting, very quickly

Should be a good read!

Am I the only one looking for more details in the Cochrane/Ferris wheel tragedy?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/1/2012 9:34:14 PM   
JeffroK


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What the heck? Harper was still rubbing his chin in amazment. One of the observor corps assigned to grade the Reluctant Admiral war game had one heck of a memory. Harper hadn't even remembered the guy, but the guy had certainly remembered him. At the conclusion of Reluctant Admiral, he had taken Harper aside and commented on one of Harper's exercises while at the Naval Academy 12 years ago! He had remembered Harper's plan to counterinvade the Philippines early (Harper recalled the name of the operation, Red Planet) and that Harper had later transformed the mission into an invasion of the Volcano Islands. Crazy that somebody whould have such a memory!

Even more details are remembered by the crowd, the reinvasion of a never occupied Iloilo was on the books until a complacent japanese player decided to occupy it.

The stuff of legends.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/2/2012 12:40:36 AM   
whippleofd

 

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And let the observer corps not forget the impressive use of surface combatants to disrupt landings of places that have to be taken, yet don't have sufficient covering forces. Of course, "everyone knows" the Japanese commander will escort these invasion forces with substantial covering assets. So why try???

Whipple

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/2/2012 5:57:27 PM   
princep01

 

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"Then Harper flipped through the pile of intelligence assessments on his desk.  There were crytpic requests for information about obscure places like Socatra and Coal Harbor."

By golly, Canoe, I think you must have sights on retiring to Socratra after you retire!  Three posts in and there it is.....a Socatra sighting!  Send the entire 2d Marine Division to hold the place.  I'm sure John will bee-line straight for your retirement home:).

Seriosuly, welcome back to the AAR fold.  I thought you were going to give this a long rest, but I'm glad you didn't.  I know we all look forward to a rousing game against John.

Oh, and while you're here, I was sorry to see Georgia come so close and lose out to Alabama.  Great game to watch for those of us with no dog in the fight, but I am sure you were broken hearted when your valiant team just ran out of time.

(in reply to whippleofd)
Post #: 29
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/2/2012 7:27:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
PWS:  The Good The Bad & The Sleepy. 

Dawgs v. Bama:  I follow the Dawgs and I'm glad when they win, but I'm not a huge football fan.  Instead of watchng that game, I hiked 14 very tough miles in Cohutta Wilderness yesterday.  I got back home at 7:30, after a 1.5-hour drive.  When I got out of my truck, I thought the good Lord had smote me hip and thigh.  I could barely make it to the house.  I caught the last ten minutes of the game on radio, so I know it was a great game. 

Socatra:  From looking at the expanded map, it doesn't seem that Socatra is nearly as important in this game.  But I'll never forget Socatra.  In my game with Q-Ball, that was the base that decided the outcome of the war.  When a base is that critical it's tough to forget it. 

(in reply to princep01)
Post #: 30
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