Canoerebel
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Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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2/24/43
He had taken refuge in a cave-like opening flowing water had carved in the bank of a Republican River tributary. Holed up there for two days now, he had nursed his wounds, which looked bad and felt worse. He'd been shot, once in his right thigh and once in the right side. The bleeding had stopped, but he felt awful. The Comanchees didn't know where he was, but the wolves - or maybe they were wild dogs - did. He'd set a snare and caught a cottontail, which he cooked over a small, hot, smokeless fire of dry willow. He didn't know where the settlers were, he didn't know where the Comanchees were, and he didn't give himself a chance of making it out of this mess alive. But he couldn't very well lie down and die. So he thought. And then he thought some more. Always, he mulled over what he might do to improve his chances.
Battle of Sumatra: The Kongos return and unleash another nuclear bombardment at Sabang. The damage to the field is immense - 56 service and 86 runway, and once again the support troops are disrupted (this time to 75%). The Intel Loss Screen shows 195 Allied aircraft destroyed on the ground, but I think the 195 refers to the number of aircraft destroyed and out of operation, because the actual number destroyed looks considerably less. But the field is largely shut down, meaning Sabang is now all but defenseless against attack by air. This means the 50 Allied ships there are doomed, either from LBA or the KB, which is still posted in a blocking position NW of the port.
So in this grimmest of moments, when John has finally managed what's he's been aiming to do for months, I nevertheless feel an odd surge of confidence. How can that be? Here's why:
1. Enemy ships hit five mines - one DD took two hits, two others took single hits, and Yamato took one. (The Sabang screen confirms that the mine total dropped to 951, which matches the hits, so I don't think this is FOW.) There were two sinking sounds immediately after, so I believe John might have lost two more DDs. Yamato wasn't badly damaged, barely showing smoke during a later meeting with some PT boats. But since John unleashed the Kaigun against Sabang in late January, he's suffered mine hits to a BB, CA, two CL, and six DD. I believe the CA, both CLs, and perhaps 4 or 5 DDs went down (some of these due to contributing causes after the mine hits).
The bombardment didn't touch supply or combat troops. Sabang is strong. (And there is still no apparent imminent threat to the concentration of troops at Langsa and the hex to the south.)
2. Yamato came in escorted only by DDs. The four Kongos also had DD escorts. No signs of enemy cruisers, heavy or light. I think the Kaigun is hurting, though I could be evaluating through rose-colored glasses too much.
3. At this point, I prefer that John maintain a mid-level morale of "I think I have things in hand" as opposed to either extreme (desperate to resolve the situation or so confident of victory that he takes bold action). I'm hoping that he feels that he has things well in hand and can reduce Sumatra with a reasonable amount of time. What I don't want him to do is to invade Langsa or even Sabang. The latter poses the only possibility of a coup-de-main defeat that might wrest Sabang from Allied hands with a fortnight. The former represent a possible route to Sabang in four to six weeks. But if John is satisfied to pick off ships and plans and hammer Sabang for awhile, the timeline lengthens measurably.
4. I don't have any choice but to leave my ships at Sabang. They're either slow or damaged. The KB is sitting right there. But more importantly, I want to give John something to aim for. Something to focus on. Something to incite his "Banzaii-ness" over the next few days. If he picks off Wichita and Hawkins et al, I won't be celebrating, but I'll know it's for the good of the Republic.
5. The most important ships at Sabang are the two ACM. The longer they can remain hidden and afloat, the better the minefield will be and the more attrition to Japanese ships might occur. With 951 mines in place, I think the minefield will last a long time even once the ACMs are gone. But every day they're there is a small victory.
6. Here's where I have to guess. I think John will set his LBA to bomb port. Ships disbanded in port will be sitting ducks. Ships at anchor will be sitting ducks to aircraft set to naval strike. But my guess is that John won't think that far: that he'll think all the chicks will flee the roost, so that he'll maintain the KB as a blocking force for one more turn. So I'm going to form ships into TFs so that they'll be defended by their own AA. This might buy me another day in which the land flak units can recover some from that 75 disruption level.
7. If enemy combat ships come in, they'll find two TFs of walking wounded and all kinds of merchants.
8. I could keep my fighters in place - there are probably 100 ready to fly - but the airfield damage is so great that it's probably not worth it. So I'm moving the good planes to Ramree Island temporarily. for awhile now, the defense of Sabang is up to AA, minefields, and friction. Those may not be as weak as they seem at first blush.
By the way, I was surprised by my NavSearch PBYS not giving any warning of the approach of the Kongos. But such are the fortunes of war.
It would be fun to know what John is thinking. Is he planning a conventional campaign to reduce Sabang long term? If so, I indeed think that will take at least 60 days, more likely a good bit more, and possibly won't ever succeed. Or will he shoot the works and invade Langsa or Sabang in big numbers? That's his route to victory. He has to do that. But will he.
Meanwhile, elsewhere, the wheels are in motion. But the planning is long term and will work so much better if John is still focusing on Sumatra come May 1 or June 1. Can I nurse this thing two to three more months? I think so. Or, more optimistically, can I hold a viable lodgement in Sumatra? After a devastating nuclear bombardment that has finally closed my airfield and left Sabang defenseless (except for those aforementioned AA, mines and friction), I up the odds from 33% to 34%. I'm going to try.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/31/2016 12:05:00 AM >
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 
John is going to become one dimensional in trying to hammer Sabang. The next step will be a bit more difficult. How to stop, or slow down, BB runs? 
I'm curious as to what others think?
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