Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

Hey Dan, Did not know you were so active and resumed this AAR. Just have not been looking in here much in the past few months. Really since Greyjoy and Obvert ended their game. I will spend a few days and catch up and then you can rely on me to give you all sorts of sage and unsolicited advice.

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Can 1st Marines hold against such a force in jungle-rough terrain with help from some Stuart tanks? I'm not sure.

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Canoerebel: Can 1st Marines hold against such a force in jungle-rough terrain with help from some Stuart tanks?

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/1/43

Good to see old timers back. Glad you gents are here.

Battle of Sumatra: Four Sisters bombard Sabang. There are (at least) four units advancing up the west road. I think there will be three infantry divisions and a tank division. Can 1st Marines hold against such a force in jungle-rough terrain with help from some Stuart tanks? I'm not sure.

On the east side, 16 units at Medan now, and IJA bombers target the Allied stack in the jungle hex south of Langsa. This is the first time John's targeted this hex in well over a month. I think he's coming this way. The Allies have 1150 AV in jungle terrain, with two infantry divisions having three forts, the other having two forts.

No sign of enemy amphibious assault, which is important. John can prevail in a ground campaign, but an amphibious assault offered the faster route to victory.

Battle of Burma: The battle lines are shaping up near Lashio. John bombed a Chinese city (the one between Kunming and Paotung), possibly feeling if it was occupied, and probably considering para assault. 22nd New Chinese Div. is there.

KB: No sign of it today.

April 1, 1943: The calendar has flipped and suddenly the Allies have four Hellcats in the pools. Since we resumed the game, this was the focal date. If the Allies still held Sabang in usable condition as of this date, the Hellcats would come online, making it possible to face Japan in the air. The current status is a hybrid - Sabang isn't in usable condition, but the Allied ground defenses are stout and there's plenty of supply. Japan has to keep bombarding to maintain suppression. If John miscalculates, the Allies could get the field up and running in short order. But now the key question is whether Sabang keeps John preoccupied long enough for Operation Circus to benefit from the distraction. It'll probably be a close thing, but it's not a pipe dream.

Operation Circus: This is the code name for the next Allied operation, which will originate from SWPac. I've identified preferred targets but they may change depending on SigInt. There are two primary targets, with Peanuts 1 through 4 prepping for the first and Cotton Candy 1 through 3 prepping for the second. 2nd Marine Division is in place. 6th, 7th, and 8th Australian Divisions, after extricating from Burma, are on the way. The last of these could reach Oz in about 45 to 50 days. I've been stockpiling PP, which are now up to 3965. In another month, I'll have enough to buy out 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Australian Divisions and some restricted support units. The invasions will involve at least seven divisions and possibly one or two others depending on PP and time of transit to the staging ports.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks,helps so much.

Try cropping?

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oops, double post.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/2/43

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy hasn't advanced on the west side yet. It's been 17 days since the first unit showed on the screen, so time is ticking.

On the east side, another IJA unit has reached the contested hex - the first reinforcement there since the campaign started in early January. A US arty unit will bombard tomorrow to see what's up, but it looks like this will be the other vector of attack. The hope - not yet mounting to an expectation or a certainty - is that John commits enough to these two ground assaults that he doesn't have sufficient left for an amphibious operation.

Kongos bombard Sabang; two BBs bombard Langsa. Bombers also hit the Allied units moving down the west road - a first.

Decisions are made regarding medium term plans for the Allied carriers. I won't go into details, but the choices were whether to support Sabang or Operation Circus or both.

Evaluating the Sumatra Campaign: When we resumed the game with the 1/3/43 turn, I had grave doubts as to whether the Allies could hold long given the glaring problems with the fighter pools. It's too early to declare winners and losers yet, but for the Allies to hold this long in some strength, with probably 30 to 60 days of campaigning left, has been very helpful. When all is said and done, John will have concentrated almost exclusively on Sumatra for at least five months, probably six, and maybe into a seventh. Both sides will have lost a lot of aircraft and ships. The Allies will - if things go south - have lost many more ground troops. But ground troops aren't usually in short supply. And the argument can be made that a six-month hiatus in Japanese initiative was worth the cost.

In the meantime, my biggest hope is that John will commit in force somewhere that won't hurt the Allies strategically. A perfect example was the 1944 invasion of India in our previous game. A massive use of precious resources that just didn't affect the Allies one way or the other. At this point, there is only one place that major Japanese offensive activity would pose a problem for the Allies, and lots of places it just wouldn't matter long term. Right now there are no signs of looming Japanese offensive activity. But what about when (and if) Sumatra winds down and John finds himself with 10 or 15 divisions. Does he cast a glance at Ceylon or NE India or Oz? I wonder.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton
Personally, I think John has pretty much lost the game-even if he throws you out. You are reaching a point where you can go ahead and fight a big carrier battle due to the fact that you will replace any losses by the end of the year. And you know John will have to use his fleet to throw you out or prevent you from fleeing.

It all comes down to flexibility. You have fixed him in place and he really has no choice to but to throw you out of Sumatra. Any other option will prematurely doom his oil. You on the other hand have options. You can fight him in Sumatra where a victory will seal his fate. Or, just move your carriers to the Pacific and grab another significant strong point while he works on Sumatra.

Another factor is if you can complete your 43 upgrades and get some medium tanks into action then his power on the ground will significantly diminish. Allied squads get monster boosts to their inherent AT value in 43. Once that happened Japanese tanks become all but useless. It becomes very tough for Japanese ground forces to conduct offensive operations after that.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/2/43

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy hasn't advanced on the west side yet. It's been 17 days since the first unit showed on the screen, so time is ticking.

On the east side, another IJA unit has reached the contested hex - the first reinforcement there since the campaign started in early January. A US arty unit will bombard tomorrow to see what's up, but it looks like this will be the other vector of attack. The hope - not yet mounting to an expectation or a certainty - is that John commits enough to these two ground assaults that he doesn't have sufficient left for an amphibious operation.

Kongos bombard Sabang; two BBs bombard Langsa. Bombers also hit the Allied units moving down the west road - a first.

Decisions are made regarding medium term plans for the Allied carriers. I won't go into details, but the choices were whether to support Sabang or Operation Circus or both.

Evaluating the Sumatra Campaign: When we resumed the game with the 1/3/43 turn, I had grave doubts as to whether the Allies could hold long given the glaring problems with the fighter pools. It's too early to declare winners and losers yet, but for the Allies to hold this long in some strength, with probably 30 to 60 days of campaigning left, has been very helpful. When all is said and done, John will have concentrated almost exclusively on Sumatra for at least five months, probably six, and maybe into a seventh. Both sides will have lost a lot of aircraft and ships. The Allies will - if things go south - have lost many more ground troops. But ground troops aren't usually in short supply. And the argument can be made that a six-month hiatus in Japanese initiative was worth the cost.

In the meantime, my biggest hope is that John will commit in force somewhere that won't hurt the Allies strategically. A perfect example was the 1944 invasion of India in our previous game. A massive use of precious resources that just didn't affect the Allies one way or the other. At this point, there is only one place that major Japanese offensive activity would pose a problem for the Allies, and lots of places it just wouldn't matter long term. Right now there are no signs of looming Japanese offensive activity. But what about when (and if) Sumatra winds down and John finds himself with 10 or 15 divisions. Does he cast a glance at Ceylon or NE India or Oz? I wonder.

Personally, I think John has pretty much lost the game-even if he throws you out. You are reaching a point where you can go ahead and fight a big carrier battle due to the fact that you will replace any losses by the end of the year. And you know John will have to use his fleet to throw you out or prevent you from fleeing.

It all comes down to flexibility. You have fixed him in place and he really has no choice to but to throw you out of Sumatra. Any other option will prematurely doom his oil. You on the other hand have options. You can fight him in Sumatra where a victory will seal his fate. Or, just move your carriers to the Pacific and grab another significant strong point while he works on Sumatra.

Another factor is if you can complete your 43 upgrades and get some medium tanks into action then his power on the ground will significantly diminish. Allied squads get monster boosts to their inherent AT value in 43. Once that happened Japanese tanks become all but useless. It becomes very tough for Japanese ground forces to conduct offensive operations after that.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Those are good points, Obvert. Here are some thoughts:

1. There's no question that the Sumatra invasion stopped John dead in his tracks. There's been no IJ expansion since this came about. That's not all bad for John, as he's had plenty of targets close by, right there for the attacking. But it does mean that the Japanese perimeter isn't as far out as usually is in a John III game.

2. The real question now is whether the Allies are in a position to build on Sumatra while it's still serving as a distraction. It's going to be a close thing, I think.

3. I've given some consideration to the next major invasion being a reinforcement of Sumatra, but that's now far down on my list of options, simply because of the size of the enemy airfields, presence of enemy air HQs, and the massive number of enemy aircraft there. Far more likely that Circus will proceed as outlines previously.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lots of intangibles too. The loss of Medan's oil; the length of time KB's been at sea; ditto the BBs; attrition to the Kaigun (especially cruisers and destroyers); moving men around, first to stop the invasions of Sumatra and Malaya, then back to Burma; etc. Intangibles like these are hard to evaluate in the short term and the long term. But, for instance, the last time I caught sight of a major enemy combat TF, all of the major vessels were showing smoke. IE, John's been operating pretty hard.

In contrast, the Allied fleet is largely rested. The only thing that's been stressed are those units on Sumatra. For awhile, especially back in January, I wondered what the Allied OOB might look like if the worst thing happened and John managed to vanquish Sumatra. Enough time has passed to look at that carefully. I'm not discounting the loss of those units - the divisions, HQs, engineers, base forces - but it's not going to degrade my ability to fight going forward. I won't have enough army left to vanquish the whole empire. But I will have what's needed to defeat the empire. Or so I believe.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

I do agree with you about Japanese air parity. The Japanese air force should hold their own until 1944. If the data from DaBabes is being used in this mod, then the Jack and George have been way overpowered with both of them flying at 400 mph. This is a real problem as my opponent is crapping out Jacks in mid 43 like crazy. It is basically the same as a Frank now only it comes a hell of a lot sooner. Same with the George. In stock the Hellcat makes a great land based fighter. In this one it gets eaten alive. Even most of the Allied Corsairs have been nerfed to fly slower than 400 mph. Gotta be careful. The upside is that Allies AA is king. I bought out every heavy AA unit I could. Really makes Japanese bombers much less effective. To the point where I sometimes just don't bother with CAP over a base with good AA units.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

John not having a deep perimeter is better for his economy and long term health of the Empire. It's fun, but not sustainable. Whether he's prepared a defense will be seen later.