RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 6:30:45 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

No Jack in this mod or the other two mods. John wanted to streamline production as he voiced that Japan decides to go all in with the various Zero models.

In stock Japan gets 10 CVs as builds while in RA they get 8. After Junyo and Hiyo, they get 6 Shokaku-kai Class CVs vs 6 Unryu Class and no Taiyo or Shinano. They do get a few more CVLs.

Got it. No Jack. But Georges on CVs right?

Ahh, okay. I stand corrected on CVs then. It just means he gets them early without having to speed them up using resources from the economy, and they're better than the ones in stock.

Here is the order for replacements;

REINFORCEMENTS:
1942
CV: Junyo (March), Hiyo (June), Ryukaku (Aug)
CVL: Nisshin (Dec 41) and Ryuho (July)
CA: Iwaki (Sept), Hikari (Nov)

1943
CV: Taikaku (Feb), Renkaku (Sept)
CB: Kawachi (Jan), Kasuga (May)
CA: Ibuki (Aug)

1944
CV: Amagi (Jul), Katsuragi (Nov)
CVL: Aso (Jan), Taiho (April), Unryu (Sept)
CA: Kurama (Jan)

1945
CV: Kasigi (Jan)

Sho-Kai Class carries 75 Aircraft and is a slight improvement off of the Shokaku.

Aso-Class carries 36 planes and converted from the hulls of three enlarged Yahagi-Class CLs.

Extras
No Taiho or Shinano as normal.

Add six of the new Yahagi-Class CLs and you have the Japanese OOB.

< Message edited by obvert -- 2/22/2016 9:00:17 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to ny59giants)

Post #: 4621

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 2:26:36 PM

Canoerebel

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4/4/43

Battle of Sumatra: One unit, probably 10th Division, advances into the 1st Marines hex. I hope it will choose to bombard tomorrow, as suddenly the Allied units are low on supply (this is a first - all the units in the Sumatran hinterlands are always flush with supply; there's no reason for today to be different).

Kongos bombard Sabang.

Over on the east side, the main troop movements haven't happened at the contested hex. The buildup at Medan continues and I'm looking for John to advance, but I've kept back some units at Langsa, which also serve as the reserve for Sabang. Lots of juggling here, but it has to be done.

No sign of the KB. IJN raiders (two DDs) pick off two xAK and a YMS picketing south of Ceylon.

SWPac: Japanese LRCAP flew over Tennant Creek today, thus offering opposition for the first time in months to the daily bombing runs that have been targeting 90th Regiment. The purpose of this campaign has been fourfold: (1) destroy some supply points (on the basis that supply is always a concern for Japan); (2) rough up one usable Japanese unit, might as well since those bombers wouldn't be doing anything otherwise; (3) entice John to eventually send fighters this way; and (4) serve as a mock distraction, making John think that I want him to think the Allies have plans in this region. Now, that's pretty convoluted thinking, but what the heck. I have bombers in Australia and they've been beating up 90th Regiment for months now.

Operation Circus: Most of the clicking is done now. Essentially all troops involved are well en route (the last being Peanut 1 through Peanut 4, which are each avoiding the direct route from Bombay to Oz via map's edge due to the threat of KB, and instead traveling via Capetown). Nearly all ships that will be involved are either in place or on the way. Now it's the waiting game until the troops reach the staging points. Peanut 3 will be the first and it'll be in place in 30 days. The last of them should be in place in roughly 50-60 days, so D-Day might be 60 to 70 days away.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 4622

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 2:40:32 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Kongos bombard Sabang.

Okay. You predicted that, and I think you figured where they are coming from, which means AKEs in port, plus ships transporting supplies up to that port.

Can you do anything about it?

I am not sure that there is, but I am curious?

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4623

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 2:41:45 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I do agree with you about Japanese air parity. The Japanese air force should hold their own until 1944. If the data from DaBabes is being used in this mod, then the Jack and George have been way overpowered with both of them flying at 400 mph. This is a real problem as my opponent is crapping out Jacks in mid 43 like crazy. It is basically the same as a Frank now only it comes a hell of a lot sooner. Same with the George. In stock the Hellcat makes a great land based fighter. In this one it gets eaten alive. Even most of the Allied Corsairs have been nerfed to fly slower than 400 mph. Gotta be careful. The upside is that Allies AA is king. I bought out every heavy AA unit I could. Really makes Japanese bombers much less effective. To the point where I sometimes just don't bother with CAP over a base with good AA units.

The Jack was a fantastic plane, and should have been slightly better than stock, but I agree, it's a bit better than is good for balance with Symon's new numbers. Production can be virtually unlimited, but of course there is a cost to the Japanese economy for everything.

Just looked through the sheet of changes in the scenario. Wow. I know the Allies get some stuff, but the Japanese get a whole new class of CV and lots of em. I'd have to compare OOBs but it looks like aruond 6 additional? A revised and improved Shokaku. Speaking of AA, they get more bette DDs earlier with enhanced AA.

All upgrades come earlier and with better AA including a Japanese Bofors system. There are also a bunch of units upgraded to 88mm guns fro the Japanese. New BCs, earlier arrival of virtually everything. A plethora of CD units and SNLFs can combine into brigades. It's nuts.

For CV air he'll have armored A6M3b in 43 and slightly after he'll get N1K4 "Georges" to play with, on CVs!!

The strike planes are also made in armored versions, (Grace and Judy), which is scary, and it gets worse at the end when you'll see an IJN LBA version of the Ki-83 plus an A7M3 with 6 x 20mm canons!!

i could go on, because the OOD change log list is 18 pages long, but I'll just link it. It's scary.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWx1Y3RhbnRhZG1pcmFsfGd4Ojc1NzE5MmE3NmJhNjA3NDA

Ouch! That is a lot more meat on those Japanese bones! It helps that there is no Jack to deal with but still the George will come on soon and if it can be put on carriers in numbers then Dan does have to be more careful.

What I did not see is any greater fuel production for Japan. With the addition of so many ships I think the best Allied strategy might just be to target oil.

There was one "big" change in the last patch that makes it very easy and viable for the Allies to carry out carrier raids on the Japanese oil centers that are in Sumatra and Indonesia. In the past, you had to run into range and spend a turn before you could set your carrier groups to city/oil attacks-thus giving the Japanese player one turn to move air assets to the threatened base. This is no longer the case. The Allied player can target oil while out of range and then run in and raid in one turn. This can really cause the Japanese player some serious pain.

< Message edited by crsutton -- 2/22/2016 3:42:59 PM >

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Post #: 4624

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 2:50:10 PM

crsutton

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JWE has said that his modifications to the aircraft was done with the intent for the game to be played with PDU off. With PDU on and the ability to produce and equip unlimited numbers of fighter units with these aircraft it becomes a problem but not the end of the world for the Allied player.

I think that they choose to use the ideal "test" stats when upgrading planes such as the Jack and George. In real life these aircraft did not perform anywhere near ideal test results, due to production deficiencies, poor maintenance and lousy fuel. All combat planes performance begins to degrade once in the field but the differences between Allied and Japanese planes was pretty dramatic. But with PDU off, the Allied player would see so few of these models that it would not matter, so I see where JWE is coming from.

_____________________________

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Post #: 4625

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 3:14:23 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Okay. You predicted that, and I think you figured where they are coming from, which means AKEs in port, plus ships transporting supplies up to that port.

Can you do anything about it? ...

I've taken a few swings. When John let Langsa's airfield repair a month ago, I brought in 2EB and 4EB from Calcutta. They hit Sinabang's port, sinking a DD and mauling a bunch of xAK (the 4EB set to hit Singapore refused to fly). And subs are laying mines there. And, if John gets careless, I would consider slipping my carriers close enough to hit the port.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 4626

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 3:22:53 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm following the research and insights posted by Obert and crsutton with some quaking as I contemplate a tough future situation.

Regarding oil, I thought the damage done to Medan might be signficant (when I mentioned this previously months ago, one player thought the impact not particularly significant). The Allies held Medan for a month and used all the oil. When Japan reclaimed it in early January '43, production and refinery (both 201) were trashed down to 2. They remain at that level today. I'm hoping (but not counting on anything) that cumulatively this will hurt John eventually.

Allied subs have been pretty productive, more so than in most of the games I've played.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4627

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 3:34:16 PM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm following the research and insights posted by Obert and crsutton with some quaking as I contemplate a tough future situation.

Regarding oil, I thought the damage done to Medan might be signficant (when I mentioned this previously months ago, one player thought the impact not particularly significant). The Allies held Medan for a month and used all the oil. When Japan reclaimed it in early January '43, production and refinery (both 201) were trashed down to 2. They remain at that level today. I'm hoping (but not counting on anything) that cumulatively this will hurt John eventually.

It might mean something if no oil from Magwe...don't get me wrong, it is better than nothing, but with your goofy HR on bombing, it doesn't mean as much as it could.

Still, every bit helps.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4628

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 3:57:23 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm following the research and insights posted by Obert and crsutton with some quaking as I contemplate a tough future situation.

Regarding oil, I thought the damage done to Medan might be signficant (when I mentioned this previously months ago, one player thought the impact not particularly significant). The Allies held Medan for a month and used all the oil. When Japan reclaimed it in early January '43, production and refinery (both 201) were trashed down to 2. They remain at that level today. I'm hoping (but not counting on anything) that cumulatively this will hurt John eventually.

Allied subs have been pretty productive, more so than in most of the games I've played.

It's a pretty big cost to rebuild all of that, and he should, but 200k supply does have an impact, plus the lost non-production time.

IMHO the best stance you can take seems to be the way you're leaning already, that the game is a long-term strategic struggle, and the VPs, the resources and the subtle shifts of momentum will determine the outcome more than individual tactical battles or KB pleasure cruises.

The thing to be aware of is a strategic situation where you're not able to gain air superiority (as GreyJoy vs Mr Kane showed in a PDU-ON game, or even the much earlier Andy Mac vs PzB), and in this mod that means taking care to know when his next good planes are due and reacting by either hoarding or using your best models accordingly for periods of time. You can check in the database the current arrival dates based on his RnD so far.

The Allies have better intelligence, and the edict was that if a commander didn't act on it, he could be held accountable later.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4629

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 4:09:43 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Most AE players understand (or learn) that information is the most important element in the game. Second in importance is logistics. Those two, in turn, underly strategic planning. Then come operational and tactical ability.

One of the good things about the Sumatra campaign was that it forced John to attack for months. The Allies were able to fight defensively in strength in the air throughout that period. The results favored the Allies by a wide margin during that period, both in pilot casualities and the number of airframes lost (though the latter evened out once John was able to bombard the airfield).

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 4630

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 4:58:21 PM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm following the research and insights posted by Obert and crsutton with some quaking as I contemplate a tough future situation.

Regarding oil, I thought the damage done to Medan might be signficant (when I mentioned this previously months ago, one player thought the impact not particularly significant). The Allies held Medan for a month and used all the oil. When Japan reclaimed it in early January '43, production and refinery (both 201) were trashed down to 2. They remain at that level today. I'm hoping (but not counting on anything) that cumulatively this will hurt John eventually.

Allied subs have been pretty productive, more so than in most of the games I've played.

It's a pretty big cost to rebuild all of that, and he should, but 200k supply does have an impact, plus the lost non-production time.

IMHO the best stance you can take seems to be the way you're leaning already, that the game is a long-term strategic struggle, and the VPs, the resources and the subtle shifts of momentum will determine the outcome more than individual tactical battles or KB pleasure cruises.

The thing to be aware of is a strategic situation where you're not able to gain air superiority (as GreyJoy vs Mr Kane showed in a PDU-ON game, or even the much earlier Andy Mac vs PzB), and in this mod that means taking care to know when his next good planes are due and reacting by either hoarding or using your best models accordingly for periods of time. You can check in the database the current arrival dates based on his RnD so far.

The Allies have better intelligence, and the edict was that if a commander didn't act on it, he could be held accountable later.

I don't think he is going to repair the oil. Given the HR, he should have started to repair it immediately, and that it hasn't happened tells me he wrote it off.

The rule of thumb I have heard, is that if you can hold onto the facility (i.e. protect it) for 90 days that it makes sense to rebuild the oil. However that depends on a point of supply being generated with each oil to fuel refining process.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 4631

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 5:13:00 PM

crsutton

Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most AE players understand (or learn) that information is the most important element in the game. Second in importance is logistics. Those two, in turn, underly strategic planning. Then come operational and tactical ability.

One of the good things about the Sumatra campaign was that it forced John to attack for months. The Allies were able to fight defensively in strength in the air throughout that period. The results favored the Allies by a wide margin during that period, both in pilot casualities and the number of airframes lost (though the latter evened out once John was able to bombard the airfield).

Forcing Japan into a protracted campaign outside of China is a key way to win. I just don't think the Japanese economy can support it. I used to be a Sir Robin advocate. Now I look at it differently. The Allies should pick their battles and start grinding on Japan as soon as possible. Dan, you would know. It is exactly what US Grant would have done..

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4632

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2016 5:41:08 PM

Canoerebel

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4/5/43

Battle of Sumatra: Is John decoying as a prelude to invading Sabang and/or Langsa? Events on the map and the tone of his most recent email makes me wonder.

On the west side of the island, four Japanese units are now present in the 1st Marines hex. Only, these aren't four divisions, they are one whole division and another division broken up into A/B/C sub-units. And there do not appear to be additional units in the hex to the rear. This force shouldn't be enough to pose a credible threat on the west side of the island unless and until they are significantly reinforced. John's two divisions bombard, so he knows exactly what I have. More imporantly, the Allied units are fully supplied. What about the two units to the rear? I think 18th UK Div. will back up a hex and dig in amongst jungle-rough terrain. It's only 130 AV, so not a major force. The other unit, a US RCT, will return to Sabang.

Over on the east side, John still hasn't advanced a stack to threaten the Allied strongpoint between Medan and Langsa. He has alot of units at Medan, so he can move into this hex quickly. But I've switched a USA division at Langsa to Strat mode just in case it needs to rail to Sabang.

Enemy air focuses mainly on 1st Marines and 18th UK, doing almost no damage. I think, but I'm not positive, that the air strikes included KB's Jills. The mass came from the west and in flew in cohesive numbers las though carrier-borne, but there's a chance they were based at Sinabang.

SWPac: More enemy activity in the islands around Milne Bay and SigInt shows a base force inbound to Ocean Island, supplementing a nav guard unit heading that way per SigInt a few days back. So John is focusing on this flank, pretty far out, but there have been no SigInt reports in recent months of activity at New Britain, Admiralties, New Guinea and the Java region.

Allied Plans: There's been alot of behind-the-scenes work going on for the past three months, which new readers may not be aware of. When we first resumed the game on January 3, 1943, it took me a couple of weeks to really get a handle on what was where and why (the result of a 2+ year hiatus in playing). by late January, the Allies had identified the next major target, but I didn't reveal anything more than that it would come out of SWPac. By late January, the Allies began switching prep on units, including 6th, 7th and 9th Australian Divisions, which at the time were mired down in a tough battle deep inside Burma (6th and 7th) or in the Arabian Sea and tentatively bound to serve as theater reserve in India (9th). Simultaneously, I changed the prep for 1st through 4th Australian Divisions, which are in Oz and restrictied, but which can be purchased for considerably less than an American division. I think all of these units are now 100% prepped, though I am not yet fully committed to the prep destinations. I do have preferences (hence the prepping), but there are also the second and third choices, in case John's reinforcement activity poses any problems in the next two months. At the same time, I had to get ships to the right pre-invasion ports, work on supply and fuel, etc. Right now, Oz has far more fuel and supplies than any point in this game. Enough to handle all offensive activity through the next campaign and probably into the autumn months.

So while most of the combat action and AAR activity for the past three months has focused almost exlusively on Sumatra, there's been a great deal of work going into the next phase of the war.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/22/2016 6:42:51 PM >

(in reply to crsutton)

Post #: 4633

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 1:48:08 AM

Canoerebel

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4/6/43

Battle of Sumatra: The two IJA divisions on the west side of the island attack and do poorly (see combat report excerpt at the end of this post). The Allied units are barely touched, except for supply. The Japanese will have to reinforce or figure out some way to disrupt 1st Marines. Air attacks don't seem effective.

On the east side, five IJA divisions (see combat report excerpt) have entered the hex and SigInt shows another - 15th - on the way to Medan. This could be a tough battle, but the Allies can call on some reserves (or use the reserves in jungle-terrain Langsa where there are three forts in the city).

Most importantly, supply is holding up well and there are no indications of a coup-de-main looming, though I'll keep watching since that's my biggest fear. At the moment, though, John has at least 10 divisions committed in Sumatra and the Allies can hold under the current model for quite some time to come.

KB is indeed posted just SW of Sabang, showing 250 F and 250 B. Knowing where KB is a relief. Information is almost everything.

The Kongos hit Sabang again and two BBs hit Langsa. Lots of strike aircraft hit the Allied units on both sides of the island.

Japanese Deliberate attack (west side of island)
Attacking force 24842 troops, 266 guns, 84 vehicles, Assault Value = 749
Defending force 10462 troops, 302 guns, 227 vehicles, Assault Value = 366

Japanese adjusted assault: 223
Allied adjusted defense: 670

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), supply(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1452 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 132 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled

Allied ground losses:
81 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 11 (3 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
10th Division
48th Division

Defending units:
762nd Tank Battalion
58th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
1st Marine Division

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 45,75 (near Medan)
Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 210 troops, 17 guns, 14 vehicles, Assault Value = 1152
Defending force 75805 troops, 617 guns, 460 vehicles, Assault Value = 2287

Japanese ground losses:
36 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
27th Infantry Division
32nd Infantry Division
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
193rd Tank Battalion
20th Indian Division
198th Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
16th Division
Imperial Guards Division
19th Division
5th Division
2nd Division
2nd Area Army
2nd Army
17th Army

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/23/2016 1:50:18 AM >

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Post #: 4634

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 1:53:21 AM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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John has 75,000 troops in the contested hex between Langsa and Medan. Troop limit is 55,000. If he brings additional divisions, I wonder what his supply usage will be like?

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4635

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 3:01:20 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...Regarding oil, I thought the damage done to Medan might be signficant (when I mentioned this previously months ago, one player thought the impact not particularly significant). The Allies held Medan for a month and used all the oil. When Japan reclaimed it in early January '43, production and refinery (both 201) were trashed down to 2. They remain at that level today. I'm hoping (but not counting on anything) that cumulatively this will hurt John eventually.

It might mean something if no oil from Magwe...don't get me wrong, it is better than nothing, but with your goofy HR on bombing, it doesn't mean as much as it could.

Still, every bit helps.

Medan produces 211 units per month and has a refinery too. Both were trashed down to 2 each. Magwe produces at 310. So I get that Magwe produces 50% more, but given it's location at the end of a longer supply line, isn't it's significance lessened somewhat while Medan's is enhanced? Or am I missing things that I shouldn't be missing?

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 4636

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 4:49:40 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...Regarding oil, I thought the damage done to Medan might be signficant (when I mentioned this previously months ago, one player thought the impact not particularly significant). The Allies held Medan for a month and used all the oil. When Japan reclaimed it in early January '43, production and refinery (both 201) were trashed down to 2. They remain at that level today. I'm hoping (but not counting on anything) that cumulatively this will hurt John eventually.

It might mean something if no oil from Magwe...don't get me wrong, it is better than nothing, but with your goofy HR on bombing, it doesn't mean as much as it could.

Still, every bit helps.

Medan produces 211 units per month and has a refinery too. Both were trashed down to 2 each. Magwe produces at 310. So I get that Magwe produces 50% more, but given it's location at the end of a longer supply line, isn't it's significance lessened somewhat while Medan's is enhanced? Or am I missing things that I shouldn't be missing?

Medan is usually gone by now, given your position. Bombed back to the stone age.

Fuel and oil are not subject to transfer spoilage. This was changed in one of the many updates. Supplies are,but they aren't going far to feed John's troops in Burma.

I don't know if in this mod the refinery spits out 1 supply when it converts oil to fuel.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4637

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 9:44:54 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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Didn't realize Magwe was still Japanese. yes, then Medan is not such a loss.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 4638

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 2:08:56 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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4/7/43

Battle of Sumatra: John switches over the Kongos to bombard the Allied stack in the jungle hex between Medan and Langsa. The bombardments focus on 20th Indian Division and 27th US Division. The damage inflicted was slight - just enough to register but nowhere near enough to fret about. But his stack doesn't attack there, nor do additional units advance into the hex. And, on the west side, no enemy attacks nor signs of approaching reinforcements.

So the situation at present is well to my liking - John seems to be mired down a bit in campaigns that seemingly don't promise quick success. Hence trying the Kongos, which was a good idea.

This means John has enhanced motivation to figure out a winning combination. One way might be to seriously reinforce that stack on the east side, where he currently has 5 divisions against my 3. As noted yesterday, 15th IJ Division is inbound to Medan. Also, at least two divisions (including 2nd Tank) that I had expected on the west side didn't show there. Where have they gone? Will John seriously reinforce on the east? He already has 75k troops in a hex with 55k limit, so his supply draw will be tough, though he may well be flush enough to proceed.

I do like the fact that John is continuing to reinforce here and that KB is still on station, though I didn't catch sight of her today. Also, if John gets to preoccupied with bombarding Allied armies for too long, airfields might become operational again.

Friction has long been my friend in this theater, but time is my ally. We're starting to get deep enough into spring that this is becoming a material aspect. May it continue for weeks to come.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 4639

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 3:11:50 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One way might be to seriously reinforce that stack on the east side, where he currently has 5 divisions against my 3. As noted yesterday, 15th IJ Division is inbound to Medan. Also, at least two divisions (including 2nd Tank) that I had expected on the west side didn't show there. Where have they gone? Will John seriously reinforce on the east? He already has 75k troops in a hex with 55k limit, so his supply draw will be tough, though he may well be flush enough to proceed.

I do like the fact that John is continuing to reinforce here and that KB is still on station, though I didn't catch sight of her today. Also, if John gets to preoccupied with bombarding Allied armies for too long, airfields might become operational again.

Friction has long been my friend in this theater, but time is my ally. We're starting to get deep enough into spring that this is becoming a material aspect. May it continue for weeks to come.

From my recent experience in a H to H endgame test, overstacking has two very dire consequences for an attacking army.

1. When overstacking starts to get above about 10% it's almost impossible to keep those units in good supply.
2. Fatigue and disruption increase proportionally to the amount overstacked.

He's already +25% overstacked if your numbers are correct, which makes me think he'll not be able to either win that battle or add more troops. He'd be better off to rotate units into the hext and attack only after about 5-6 days of constant bombardments from sea, air and land. Rotate the shattered units out, then repeat. This will wear down your troops but only over time.

So you're absolutely right, time is your ally here.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4640

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 3:14:38 PM

Lecivius

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From: Denver
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He has to be aware of the stacking limits and penalties, he made note of them when he was going through the mod design. Why disregard them now?

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 4641

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 3:16:49 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One way might be to seriously reinforce that stack on the east side, where he currently has 5 divisions against my 3. As noted yesterday, 15th IJ Division is inbound to Medan. Also, at least two divisions (including 2nd Tank) that I had expected on the west side didn't show there. Where have they gone? Will John seriously reinforce on the east? He already has 75k troops in a hex with 55k limit, so his supply draw will be tough, though he may well be flush enough to proceed.

I do like the fact that John is continuing to reinforce here and that KB is still on station, though I didn't catch sight of her today. Also, if John gets to preoccupied with bombarding Allied armies for too long, airfields might become operational again.

Friction has long been my friend in this theater, but time is my ally. We're starting to get deep enough into spring that this is becoming a material aspect. May it continue for weeks to come.

From my recent experience in a H to H endgame test, overstacking has two very dire consequences for an attacking army.

1. When overstacking starts to get above about 10% it's almost impossible to keep those units in good supply.
2. Fatigue and disruption increase proportionally to the amount overstacked.

He's already +25% overstacked if your numbers are correct, which makes me think he'll not be able to either win that battle or add more troops. He'd be better off to rotate units into the hext and attack only after about 5-6 days of constant bombardments from sea, air and land. Rotate the shattered units out, then repeat. This will wear down your troops but only over time.

So you're absolutely right, time is your ally here.

Yep, I have faced it too. I shudder to think what it will take to dig out Marines and their TOE!

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 4642

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 3:54:27 PM

Canoerebel

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If John is facing roadblocks on both sides that he thinks can't be overcome within a reasonable amount of time, then his only remaining option is to invade Langsa or Sabang to try for a coup-de-main victory. I've felt that was his best route to victory for months now, so I'm alert to this possibility. I have my defenses configured, but obviously a massive invasion will be threatening. On the plus side, any such undertaking should disrupt his troops badly, giving the Allies time to shift units around to reinforce hotspots. That's the plan anyhow.

So what will John do.

And, meantime, he has other carriers and troops available so that he might also move elsewhere.

So many possibilities out there. So many opportunities. So much risk. So much danger.

AE is quite a game, isn't it?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/23/2016 3:56:19 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 4643

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 3:59:47 PM

Mike McCreery

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_____________________________

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Post #: 4644

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 4:18:33 PM

Lecivius

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A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)

Post #: 4645

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 4:22:08 PM

Canoerebel

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I think he'll try a max out effort in the contested hex - BBs bombarding, all strike aircraft striking, and then an all-out assault by the infantry - before he gives up on the east side route to victory. There is a chance that might work.

(in reply to Lecivius)

Post #: 4646

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 5:23:31 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

For Japan, even with DBB Limits, there are ample big fast xAP/xAK/AMC/LSD ships available at this stage. I haven't checked to see if the IJN gets additional of these in the mod, but he should have no problem with lift since these are not the ships you use to haul resources/fuel. After the first year mine are mainly hauling units back to defensive positions from forward areas or bringing new units from the HI out. The economy won't be affected even if he needed to haul 6-8 division equivalents, although that would stretch his best options a bit past the limit, most likely.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lecivius)

Post #: 4647

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 5:26:46 PM

Sangeli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius
A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

For Japan, even with DBB Limits, there are ample big fast xAP/xAK/AMC/LSD ships available at this stage. I haven't checked to see if the IJN gets additional of these in the mod, but he should have no problem with lift since these are not the ships you use to haul resources/fuel. After the first year mine are mainly hauling units back to defensive positions from forward areas or bringing new units from the HI out. The economy won't be affected even if he needed to haul 6-8 division equivalents, although that would stretch his best options a bit past the limit, most likely.

Not to mention the IJN isn't going to be using them for very long for such an operation and it sits very close to Japanese fuel and supply lines. This isn't like launching a multi division assault deep in the South Pacific.

(in reply to obvert)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 5:39:57 PM

Mike McCreery

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For all the goodies that John gets I believe he starts with a deficit of supply from the normal right? Something like 1,000,000 tons?

How large a factor is that in the final calculus?

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Post #: 4649

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 5:50:29 PM

Canoerebel

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4/8/43

Battle of Sumatra: John continues to bring intense pressure to bear all around the island, though much of it just isn't having the impact you'd expect. He's like the Allied air commands in Europe during World War II, thinking bombing alone would bring the Reich to its knees, but when all was said and done, the infantry had to go in and dig them out. I think that's what John is facing here.

One BB and a host of CAs bombard Sabang while other CAs bombard Langsa. Enemy bombers hit Langsa and, across the island, 1st Marines. None of these efforts have a meaningful impact, although 1st Marines continues to have supply issue on alternating days.

John has pulled two divisions out of the contested hex south of Langsa. My first thought is that he's going to attack by rotating fresh divisions in to replace tired ones. The second possiblity is that he might embark some of these divisions aboard ship to invade. Either possibility is plausible.

And, bless him, the KB is still on station, nine hexes SW of Sabang, hitting the Marines in large numbers. Every reader here knows how helpful it is to know the precise whereabouts of enemy carriers. And while these guys are steaming in circles and thus not accruing significant wear and tear, they have been at sea a long time.

Langsa is the tougher nut of the two given the proxmity of so many Allied divisions. On the other hand, John won't need the KB to invade there. If he invades Sabang, however, he'll want the KB stationed to the NW to ward off forays by the Allied carriers. I haven't mentioned the Allied carriers in a long, long time, but I'll say this: they are rested, have finally rebuilt their fighter squadrons, and in two days one fighter group will be able to upgrade to Hellcats.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)

Post #: 4650

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