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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/15/2016 8:38:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		...and rumors that Circus is the code name for the 2016 Republican Presidential Primaries are totally unfounded....


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Post #: 4981
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/15/2016 8:59:23 PM   
DW

 

Posts: 161
Joined: 2/14/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...and rumors that Circus is the code name for the 2016 Republican Presidential Primaries are totally unfounded....



No need for the disclaimer.

After all, you hadn't mentioned any clowns...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4982
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 5:44:02 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/18/43 and 5/19/43

Battle of Sumatra: Friction strikes for the first time in a long time as SS Shark puts a torp into CVL Zuiho near Sabang. Damage done is slight. Ironically, the information is confounding more than comforting, because it leads me to wonder if a Mini KB is operating here now in place of the Half KB that was here earlier and which I want to be here still.

The Four Kongos bombard Sabang on the 19th, so at least they're where they are supposed to be.

Operation Circus: John's radar screen should be lighting up with blips from India to SWPac to CenPac to NoPac by now. Many of these are YMSs probing for John's "line of sight." But the most serious TFs are two strong surface combat TFs prowling south and east of Diego Garcia. These are dangerous waters, but I'm hoping to draw a Half KB out this way.

I think John is monkeying with SigInt, because the reports of 2nd Div. bound for Rabaul a few days back are now 2nd Div. bound for Batavia. He's either having second thoughts or he's toying with me. One thing's for sure, he's alert. That's why probing on so many fronts might be effective - he's mentally primed to see danger from whatever direction he's most worried about, so let's hope I've fed him the correct misinformation.

(in reply to DW)
Post #: 4983
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 6:38:33 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Are you getting any DL on your various TFs?

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Post #: 4984
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 1:24:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yes, quite a few of the "feint" TFs show detection, including some near the Marshalls, some north of Suva, and a big combat TF near Diego (the latter shows 4/4 from a Glen sub and may well draw Half KB if Half KB is out there).

As for the "real thing, things are quiet. One TF did report a 1/0 detection a turn or two back, which was almost certainly a "heavy radio traffic" SigInt report. Hopefully John isn't watching that kind of thing carefully. I should know in two or three days at the most.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 4985
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 2:14:33 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		I have to be the one player monitoring your game the closest. I just finished Jan '43 and what happens here will influence what I'll be able to do and not do vs John. He will strengthen any weakness uncovered in your game in mine. My "Psych Ops" continue through emails and phone calls with him as I pick his brain for his thoughts about your game and his counter moves.

_____________________________


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Post #: 4986
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 4:07:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Comment from John sent with the next turn: "Damn. You are sniffing about. I won’t throw a punch until I KNOW!"

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 4987
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 4:09:01 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		Friction

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4988
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/16/2016 4:16:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/20/43

Battle of Sumatra: NavSearch (such as it is) shows lots of enemy bombardment TFs close by, but none hit Sabang today. NavSearch also gives an audio "spotted enemy carriers." Mouseover doesn't back it up, but I think the sighting came from Singapore. The final act will be played out in Sabang over the next few weeks.

John's NavSearch shows a DD near Cocos, a large combat TF near Diego, and a variety of small stuff near Ceylon. He might jump on the Diego sighting. I don't want to lose a CA or more, but drawing a half KB out here would be worth it (at least if it happens in the next seven days).

Operation Circus: All ships are at sea. The carriers are trailing, so there wasn't any CAP the first few days out of port. Now CAP is set at minimal levels "just in case." The Death Star is not equipped to take on a Full KB, but a contest vs. Half KB would be interesting (and probably a bit shattering). On this side of the map, John's NavSearch is picking up blips from near the Marshalls to over near Efate. Soon he may pick up the advance echelon, which includes two slow BBs. I'm crossing my fingers hoping for four more days of quiet. That's probably unlikely. I ought to be happy with two.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 4989
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:53:25 AM   
Mike Dubost

 

Posts: 273
Joined: 8/24/2008
From: Sacramento, CA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Is it time to start the pool on where the main landing will take place?

I pick Koepang.


Am I too late to put my (imaginary) money on Rangoon?

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Post #: 4990
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 5:25:18 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Dubost


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Is it time to start the pool on where the main landing will take place?

I pick Koepang.


Am I too late to put my (imaginary) money on Rangoon?

Canoerebel already mentioned the Solomons. Shortlands would be smack in the middle, close enough to cause Rabaul headaches. Add Kirakira or Ndeni to anchor the other end of the chain.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 4991
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 9:46:53 AM   
kjnoel

 

Posts: 104
Joined: 3/10/2011
Status: offline 		Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake!

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 4992
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 3:14:42 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake!


No, you don't mobilize your entire Pacific force just to take Iwo Jima-a small base that is difficult to defend as there are no supporting bases around it. And too small to be dangerous for Japan. No, if I know my man the Dan, it will be something significant. And, it will be "big" - taking multiple bases with lots of support as he won't be planning on leaving and they might be cut off for a while.

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Post #: 4993
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 3:48:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Fun to watch you gentlemen speculate. Bear in mind the one nugget I gave you from the start: "The next op will originate from SWPac."

crsutton is right about Iwo. Too, Iwo's probably as close to Sumatra as the Solomons are.

It's tough for the Allies to go anywhere deep this early in the game, as least if I'm in command. If I tried something like that it would probably just end up as another Sumatra-like campaign. Mid '43 is too early for the Allies (under my command) to get too rambunctious.

But that still leaves alot of opportunities. I think.

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Post #: 4994
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:15:02 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake!

Canoerebel has more than once mentioned that Operation Circus is being launched from within the Southwest Pacific Theater. Iwo Jima seems more than a bit of a reach from there at this point.

I'm more inclined to predict the Marshalls as the objective for Operation Circus. It is only the middle of 1943. So the objective has to be somewhere defensible and capable of being developed as the base from which to launch future offensive operations. The Marshalls fit that bill nicely. There will be secure lines of communication to the West Coast through Hawaii. They are at extreme range of other Japanese bases. The Allies could threaten multiple axes of advance from them, north to the Marianas or west to the SRA.

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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Post #: 4995
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:17:11 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Fun to watch you gentlemen speculate. Bear in mind the one nugget I gave you from the start: "The next op will originate from SWPac."

crsutton is right about Iwo. Too, Iwo's probably as close to Sumatra as the Solomons are.

It's tough for the Allies to go anywhere deep this early in the game, as least if I'm in command. If I tried something like that it would probably just end up as another Sumatra-like campaign. Mid '43 is too early for the Allies (under my command) to get too rambunctious.

But that still leaves alot of opportunities. I think.

I can't believe you posted this while I was typing my post on this very subject. I'm going to make the assumption that it is a case of great minds thinking alike rather than just dumb luck.

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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Post #: 4996
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:23:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Poodle, looks like we were broadcasting ont he same frequency. :)

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Post #: 4997
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:26:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		From John's email and from the titles of his AAR posts and the frequncy of his posts and others to his AAR I know he's wound about as tight as he can be in trying to figure out what's going on. Sometimes I'm convinced he's figured it out. Sometimes I don't think he has the slightest idea. Sometimes I think I should scrub the plan because it's too risky. Sometimes I think I should proceed and let the plan unfold. I've taken some risks here, but up to now they're manageable. In a few more days, I cross an indefinite, uncertain, invisible line where I'm "all in" and the risks rise dramatically.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4998
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:45:12 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain


quote:

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Are the Solomons really that far from Sumatra? Even if the Allies control the Torres Straits it never feels like fighting on two fronts as the Japanese, although Sabang is stretching that. This game has been about the big reveal so far - whatever else has happened the Japanese lost the strategic initiative very early so deeper into the pacific would be my bet. How would Japan continue to keep Sabang suppressed and crush an invasion around Iwo Jima for example.... as long as LBA can't be decisive the Japanese will really struggle with such heavy Naval losses. If it wasn't Marshals/Jima/Marianas I would breathe a sigh of relief that it could have been worse as the Japanese.

So my vote is for Iwo-Jima, but really glad I'm not the Japanese OR the Allies in this game. Too much at stake!

Canoerebel has more than once mentioned that Operation Circus is being launched from within the Southwest Pacific Theater. Iwo Jima seems more than a bit of a reach from there at this point.

I'm more inclined to predict the Marshalls as the objective for Operation Circus. It is only the middle of 1943. So the objective has to be somewhere defensible and capable of being developed as the base from which to launch future offensive operations. The Marshalls fit that bill nicely. There will be secure lines of communication to the West Coast through Hawaii. They are at extreme range of other Japanese bases. The Allies could threaten multiple axes of advance from them, north to the Marianas or west to the SRA.


I like CentPac, but it's also got a lot of very small islands. Easy to defend, and if Japan wants to fight there, gets them using a lot of fuel. It's just hard to use them to mount a next stage op. The bases don't build out big enough.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 4999
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:50:50 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		"In chess, when your opponent has you beaten, it is checkmate."

"Not chess, Mr. Spock. Poker"







Attachment (1)

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Post #: 5000
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:51:47 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From John's email and from the titles of his AAR posts and the frequncy of his posts and others to his AAR I know he's wound about as tight as he can be in trying to figure out what's going on. Sometimes I'm convinced he's figured it out. Sometimes I don't think he has the slightest idea. Sometimes I think I should scrub the plan because it's too risky. Sometimes I think I should proceed and let the plan unfold. I've taken some risks here, but up to now they're manageable. In a few more days, I cross an indefinite, uncertain, invisible line where I'm "all in" and the risks rise dramatically.


The idea of all-in is interesting.

When did the Allies actually first go all-in during the war?

I'd say it was the Marianas. Mid-44. When they first went out on a limb to an area without already set-up LBA air support and took a set of bases using massive fleets and CV air only against a well dug-in opponent.

You're still a year early for an all-in, and so you definitely take on that risk if you go now.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 5001
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 4:53:41 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		He is even earlier, considering the mod.

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Post #: 5002
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 5:19:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Reading the tea leaves is an inexact science, but my reading is that John is wound tight (as I mentioned above). He has been absolutley certain something was coming "any moment now" for weeks. Consider his opening email for the 5/1/43 turn where he wrote something like "do YOU know where your invasion fleets are" or something of the sort.

And yet, day after day, nothing substantive happens. The Allies prod here. The Allies poke there. A blip shows up on the radar screen near Ceylon one day. Then a blip shows up near Tarawa the next.

It's like a man getting slowly, cleverly and effectively aroused by a patient lover. The build up is so exquisite that he is about to lose his mind! The merest touch is enough to ....well, you get the picture.

As the days pass and nothing happens, John's imagination goes a bit further afield. He looks elsewhere. He considers every possiblity. By now he's trying to figure out if I'm going to invade Okinawa or Honshu or if it was all a massive deception so that I can reinforce Sumatra.

There's something to be said for this "Fleet in Being" (or, in this case, Invasion in Being) business.

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 5003
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 5:24:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		And then there's the next turn, which includes two items that to me suggest that John's imagination is indeed expanding as each day goes by. First, there was a SigInt report of 6th Air Division (recently reported as going to Ambon) is now heading to Tinian.

Then there was this nugget in the "Movie" for the turn:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 22, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Truk at 112,106

Japanese Ships
AO Nippon Maru, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isokaze
AO Toei Maru
AO Ken'yo Maru
DD Namikaze
DD Asagiri

Allied Ships
SS Haddo

This happened a hex or two north of Truk. Whether inbound or outbound I don't know. But I think it suggests John is positioning (or has already positioned) the KB in such a way it can react to threats to New Guinea, Marshalls, Marianas, other any of a large number of places.

Or, of course, my own imagination could be overactive. :)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 5004
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 5:46:58 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		That certainly looks like a replenishment task force to me.....

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Post #: 5005
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 5:54:50 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline 		His response to losing the Nippon Maru should be informative. Changes in the detection levels for any of your sub TFs should provide valuable intelligence regarding Japanese level of preparedness. Figuring out who is searching and where they are searching from are always good to know. Especially when you don't have overwhelming force. This could provide some clues as to the location of the remainder of the Japanese carriers.

Tinian seems like a strange place for an air HQ at this point. Does your opponent really expect to have sufficient targets for torpedoes to justify the deployment, or is this simply a step toward maximizing operating capacities of the bases in the Marianas?

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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Post #: 5006
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 5:57:51 PM   
Jellicoe


Posts: 157
Joined: 9/26/2012
From: Kent, UK
Status: offline 		How much of a dent have you made in his AO fleet? You took down a few in surface engagements in the Indian Ocean as I recall. But AOs invariably mean carriers or something else important nearby.............

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 5007
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 6:01:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		For months John's reinforcement efforts have been narrowly confined to the Java Sea, New Britain and the Solomons. Every other tangible indicator fuocused in these places too - nav search patterns, air concentration, troop deployments, etc.

But something has changed the past couple of days. John's email comments first tipped me to the idea that he's wound tight. Now I'm getting SigInt and other supporting evidence that suggests he's worried enough to broaden his definition of "threatened areas" and is moving to shore up defenses even in unlikely places like the Marianas.

In some ways this is good - stress touched perhaps by worry or panic can create friction. But in some ways it's bad - he's going to be better prepared almost everywhere. So I'm chewing this over trying to figure out whether it impacts my plans and, if so, how.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2016 6:04:15 PM >

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Post #: 5008
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 6:03:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Jellicoe
How much of a dent have you made in his AO fleet? You took down a few in surface engagements in the Indian Ocean as I recall. But AOs invariably mean carriers or something else important nearby.............


You have a good memory, Jellicoe. I sank two or three AOs in that surface engagement in the IO four months back. Earlier in the war several others were sunk. I'll look at the ships sunk roster to see what's been there "a long time." I think his capacity has been dented but not materially affected at this early date and with him having the benefit of interior lines.

(in reply to Jellicoe)
Post #: 5009
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/17/2016 6:14:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Regarding AOs, John had lost eight in the game before Nippon Maru was hit (and she isn't confirmed sunk, though it's likely). Those sunk previously:

1. Three Type 1 TLAO Class (26 points apiece) that carry 10.4k fuel.
2. Five Shiretoko Class (18 points apiece) that carry 8.0k fuel.

I'll open the game tonight at home to measure those results against what John has available.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/17/2016 6:15:37 PM >

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Post #: 5010
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