Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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5/29/43 and 5/30/43
After absorbing nearly five full months of daily punishment, I have enjoyed seeing the Allies finally swing into action. Since February 18, when the nuclear bombardments commenced at Sabang, there have been sometimes as many as seven a week. I could do little but watch and hope that one day Circus would pay dividends on patience. Thus far it's coming together nicely, and I hope you'll overlook the level of my excitement.
Operation Circus: The combined Allied forces - Kiwi, Aussi, West AFrican, Canadian and American - have successfully and with little opposition initiated amphibious operations in the middle Aluetians. Already, ungarrisoned Ulak Island fell to an American RCT. Adak Island, the central strongpoint, turns out to be more lightly held than expected - a Naval Guard unit with a bit of support. BBs Washington, North Carolina and Massachusetts opened the show with a very strong bombardment (oh, the cleansing feeling after the longs months at Sabang...). 9th Australian Div. landed here with some American tanks and three AA units (Kiwi, African and Canadian). It's possible this base could fall tomorrow, despite lack of prep. And a Marine raider battalion landed at unoccupied Atka and should take it tomorrow.
Even as the main carrier and combat TFs remain in station at and near Adak, Circus will move east. The next targets are Umnak (2nd Marine Div. to take on probably a mixed brigade) followed in close order by Dutch Harbor (ungarrisoned). In three or four days 40th US Div. will land at Cold Bay.
Thus far there hasn't been any opposition. There are big enemy airfields and I would expect John to load them up to attack tomorrow. There is danger here, of course, especially should my carriers get targeted.
Read SigInt right now is a blast. It continues to show an enemy in a state of flux. Now, suddenly, 2nd Div. is reported bound for Paramushiro. A few weeks ago it was in Sumatra. Then it was heading east to the Solomons, then north to Saipan. And 116th Div., recently bought out of China, sent to Sumatra, and then diverted to Darwin, is aboard marus bound for the Marianas. That's roughly four divisions confirmed moving north in the past few days. That may be overblown or understated - it's hard to know for certain. But my suspicion is that John is reacting sharply to surprise and perceived danger (probably exaggerated in his worry and uncertainty, understandably). I think he'll move here in strength to counter and to stabilize. Where there's movement there's friction. And even while he's trying to move a sizeable portion of his assets most of the way across the map, the Allies are already getting ready for Circus to hit the road for performances at other venues.
Battle of Sumatra: The enemy stack is advancing on the east side - I think seven units that might arrive tomorrow. I have 1550 AV behind the four forts still with plenty of supply. Another bombardment on the 29th did negligible damage. Something's gone wrong suddenly with the IJN bombardment routine, which is a godsend. If John keeps his BBs in theater, though, it's inevitable that he'll take Sabang in a matter of a week or two. But if he pulls his BBs away, we'll see.
Evaluation: This is not the end of the war. It is, as one American officer said after Guadalcanal, the end of the beginning. The Allies have so many options to open the offensive portion of the game. To my way of thinking, the Aleutians are more important than the Gilberts, Marshalls, Fiji, New Caledonia, the Solomons and eastern New Guinea. This is not a mortal wounding of Japan by any means, but have the Allies actually managed a major offensive in an important area without the enemy having strong combat ships and carriers present? That remains to be seen. But Circus is off to a propitious start.
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