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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 9:25:35 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		I think a big part of the success can be attributed to TF composition as well.

CR had one of the most coordinated, massed CV strikes I think I have ever seen.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 5/19/2016 9:27:27 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 10:06:37 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Eunuch KB??

I dont think the now famed night search was the major difference, few items in this games are the "panacea" tactic.

It was however an important part of a solidly conceived and and executed plan.

IMVHO JIII's minimal navsearch against CR's solid navsearch/intel was the greatest reason for the success of CR's battle. It allowed CR to place his TF at a position where he was able to smash miniKB in the knowledge that at best an 8 hex strike was possible.

An additional advantage appears to have been an effective TF setup which allowed a massive strike which blew through the CAP and left enough attackers to cause damage.

JIII followed a line of action (cant call it a plan) which left his forces ripe for a picking, had a poor TF structure which cramped the size of his strikes.

Next step should be interesting, can CR keep up with the successful tactics used here, or will a new set of tricks have to be shown to the 3 ring circus.

I'm sure there is some battle in the Atlanta campaign which can be used as a similie.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 10:16:55 PM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		If you are getting ambitious why not make it hurt. John always likes to stage from Marcus island, it is a tough nut, but while his navy is hurting over the next several months the time may be ripe. The island is also isolated - yet heavily defended.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 10:17:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		John did not have detection on the Allied carriers for weeks at a time. Perhaps a failure in tactics or a quirk in his search habits. However, to take a drunken frolic into enemy territory without knowing where the enemies most deadly assets were? That's a failure of command. John became a much better player this week because he will learn from these mistakes

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 10:21:26 PM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

John did not have detection on the Allied carriers for weeks at a time. Perhaps a failure in tactics or a quirk in his search habits. However, to take a drunken frolic into enemy territory without knowing where the enemies most deadly assets were? That's a failure of command. John became a much better player this week because he will learn from these mistakes

At the least he'll get plenty of advice on doing so.

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 10:35:07 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

At the least he'll get plenty of advice on doing so.

as we have already seen in his AAR. Humble John is someone I have not met before but he seems nice
He has been taking his medicine like a gentleman

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:28:32 PM   
DW

 

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quote:

That's a failure of command. John became a much better player this week because he will learn from these mistakes


I don't know about that.

John's play style reminds me of a chess player who likes to lead with his queen.

I think he already knows better than to send KB steaming all over the map, but he's temperamentally unsuited toward a more reserved play style.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:38:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
John did not have detection on the Allied carriers for weeks at a time. Perhaps a failure in tactics or a quirk in his search habits. However, to take a drunken frolic into enemy territory without knowing where the enemies most deadly assets were? That's a failure of command. John became a much better player this week because he will learn from these mistakes


The disparity in information was as great as it could possibly be. I was worried about FOW crossing me up, but I knew everything about John's strength and disposition for a long, long time. And apparently he knew next to nothing about mine. That boggles the mind.

Here's the thing though - I was still afraid that the dice rolls might turn a strong position in to a devastating defeat. It's really nice when some hard work, attention to detail, and a great advantage in intel pays off handsomely. We've probably all had the experience when things didn't work out that way.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/19/2016 11:40:17 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:39:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
quote:

At the least he'll get plenty of advice on doing so.

as we have already seen in his AAR. Humble John is someone I have not met before but he seems nice
He has been taking his medicine like a gentleman


Boy! I wish I could read his AAR. You can imagine how much I'd like to read the last week from his perspective.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:41:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
I think a big part of the success can be attributed to TF composition as well.

CR had one of the most coordinated, massed CV strikes I think I have ever seen.


Hopefully I did something that is repeatable.

This is a case where I used everything I learned and general intuition and apparently it was the right recipe for success. But since I'm not a student of mechanics, I'm not 100% sure exactly what made things go so well.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:42:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut
...I must ask, Canoerebel, when you clicked on “night operations” for those floatplane searches – did you ever in your mind think that THAT might have been the “one mouseclick difference” between success and utter failure? Over all the agonizing you did over the decision to give battle – did THAT decision ever enter your mind?


It was a bit serendipitious. Near the end of entering orders, I was checking BB and CA float squadrons to make sure none were still set to recon Kwajalein. While doing so, I realized just how many float plane platforms I had. So I figured there was no harm and perhaps some benefit in switching some to night search since thee was 71% moonlight.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:46:10 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Boy! I wish I could read his AAR. You can imagine how much I'd like to read the last week from his perspective.


Oh, thats easy. I'll sum up
http://www.drchristinahibbert.com/dealing-with-grief/5-stages-of-grief/

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:47:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

You haven't had much combat use for your 4EB recently. I assume they've been busy training. Can you give us an update on their readiness to return to action? You should have some pretty well skilled and experienced pilots to fly them.


I've stopped using 4EB tactically to save them for strategic missions.

I made this change in SEAC (Burma) months ago. The two uses I would consider strategic there would be industrial targets (which I can't do at the moment) and possibly hitting big enemy units that enter my bases. I had expected John to use the Sabang Peace Divident to send many divisions to Burma to attack Ramree Island, Akyab, etc. So I was saving the 4EB to hit them hard.

It's hard to effectively use 4EB in the Pacific at the moment. The Japanese Aleutians bases are huge and any such use would really be tactical.

I used 4EB once in the Marshalls, but lost 10 in a single day to a modest amount of CAP. That was a huge number of losses in what was just a tactical mission.

So my 4EB are training and training and building pools. I know where and when I'm going to use them. It's not now.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:48:01 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Here's the thing though - I was still afraid that the dice rolls might turn a strong position in to a devastating defeat. It's really nice when some hard work, attention to detail, and a great advantage in intel pays off handsomely. We've probably all had the experience when things didn't work out that way.


I don't give you nearly enough credit, bit strategically and tactically. your patience , your task force composition, and your preparation were masterful. prefect storm

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/20/2016 12:24:16 AM >

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/19/2016 11:57:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That means a lot, John, thanks. I take your comments to heart.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 12:01:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		When we resumed the game January 3, 1943, all the action was focused heavily on Sumatra. Naturally, my AAR was likewise centered there. From time to time, I would write that I was doing "little things" elsewhere that weren't worth mentioning in an AAR but which I though would cumulatively prove important.

For instance, at that time I started occupying and building some of the islands between Fiji and Pago Pago, including Wallis. I think this little effort played huge dividends, as later it helped add to the impression that I had big intentions in the region. You'll recall that John knew I might hit somewhere other than Sumatra by May '43, but I think I was able to sell him on the likelihood of a SoPac venture. So while John mostly divided his scrutiny between Sumatra and SoPac, I was able to hit in NoPac almost unopposed.

Small things not worth mentioning in January '43 played decisive roles in the summer of '43.

By the same token, almost all attention right now is rightfully focused on CenPac and NoPac, where so much is going on. But there are small things happening all over the map. They aren't worth mentioning now, but they'll become part of the puzzle in '44.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 12:24:04 AM   
Cap Mandrake


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Status: offline 		Very interesting point about night recon to get the jump in the morning.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 12:54:34 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Battle of Wake Island winding down on Sept. 22, 1943.




Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 3:28:39 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Time to get some of those subs between his Kongo TF and Eniwetok to wait for their return ...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 3:57:03 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's not the Kongo TF on the map over there at Bikini atoll. That's some troop convoy that keeps getting hammered by Beauforts and, last turn, got turned back by three Fletchers.

I think John cannibalized his Kongo TF, sending the big ships back to safety and DDs forward to intercept Death Star and the Allied combat TFs.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 7:09:50 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Spent a bit of time going back through combat reports to try to piece together damage done to Japanese flattops on the first three days of battle:

1. CV Kaga: hit hard on 9/20 with 3TT and bombs and confirmed sunk after three more TT on 9/21.
2. CV Zuikaku: hit by 3B/1T with a fuel storage explosion; on 9/20 she is escorted only by DD Ushio and is hit by 4B, again showing HF/HD with ammo storage explosion. Later in the day, Allied strike aircraft target DD Ushio herself. Conclusion: Zuikaku sunk.
3. CV Hiryu: hit by 2B on 9/20 with fuel and ammo storage explosions showing heavy fires. Hiryu not sighted on the 21st. Conclusion: heavy damage but escaped.
4. CV Hiyo: 2B/1TT heavy fires and fuel storage explosion on 9/20. Not seen on the 21st. Conclusion: probably got away.
5. CV Shokaku: 1B plus fuel storage explosion and heavy fires on 9/20; part of the large carrier TF that made separation on 9/21 and 9/22.
6. CV Akagi: 1B on fire on 9/20; detached with two CAs and two DDs as escorts on 9/21 (my guess is that she was out of fuel and that they were there to provide protection and fuel); hit once in surface combat with DD TF and 7 times in combat with CA/CL/DD TF. Hit by 1k-pounder from SBD later in the day; not seen on the 22nd. Conclusion: she got away, darn it.
7. CV Soryu: No hits. Part of large escape TF.
8. CV Renkaku: one shell hit, no meaningful damage. Part of large escape TF.
9. CV TAikaku: three shell hits, probably minor damage. Part of large escape TF.
10. CVL Nisshin: 9/20, 4B HF/HD; not seen on 21st. Conclusion: sunk.
11. CVL Chitose: 9/20, shell hit, on fire; 1B on fire; 9/21 with one DD escort, 1B, on fire, heavy damage, dead in water; another bomb with same reports; and yet another with same reports; and a fourth, and a fifth, and a sixth, and a seventh, and an eight. Not seen on 9/22. Conclusion: sunk.
12. CVL Chiyoda: 9/21, 8B, HF/HD. Conclusion: sunk.
13. CVL Mizuho: 9/20, 1B on fire; 9/21, 7B, ammo and fuel storage explosions, heavy fires, heavy damage. Conclusion: sunk.

Given these reports:
Sunk: CVs Kaga and Zukaku; CVLs Mizuho, Chiyoda, Chitose, Nisshin; CVE: eight. Total sunk from 9/20 through 9/22: 14
Heavy Damage: CV Hiryu
Some Damage: CVs Shokaku, Akagi; Hiyo
Little or no damage: CVs Soryu, Renkaku, Taikaku, CVLs Ryujo, Ryuho, Shoho

I hope this analysis isn't like Pinkerton agents during the Civil War.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/20/2016 7:12:14 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 7:41:40 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		For surface combatants, ships destroyed or heavily damaged:

Confirmed sunk: 1 CL; 8 DD
Heavy F/Heavy D: 6 DD
HF or HD: 1 CL; 1 CB; 3 DD

Allied combat ship damage:
Sunk: BB Nevada; two DD
Moderate Damage: BB Massachusetts; CL St. Louis
Light/Moderate Damage: CVs Enterprise and Hornet, CA Salt Lake City
Light Damage but yard time: quite a few CA, CL and DD (mainly SYS damage incurred in surface combat against ships protecting enemy carriers - for example, this segment of combat report:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Wake Island at 142,95, Range 29,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CVL Mizuho, Shell hits 2, on fire
CVL Chiyoda, Shell hits 1
CB Kawachi, Shell hits 2
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CL Oyodo, Shell hits 1
CL Noshiro, Shell hits 3
CL Yahagi, Shell hits 8, on fire
DD Wakazuki
DD Yoizuki
DD Haruzuki
DD Natsuzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Suzunami, Shell hits 1
DD Amatsukaze, heavy damage
DD Yudachi
DD Sagiri
DD Asahikari
DD Nishikaze, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hikugumo, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 5, on fire
CA Salt Lake City, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
CA Baltimore, Shell hits 2
CLAA Juneau, Shell hits 4, on fire
CL Montpelier, Shell hits 2
DD Ammen, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Anthony
DD Beale, Shell hits 1
DD Bennett
DD Bush
DD Converse, Shell hits 2
DD Conway
DD Pringle, Shell hits 1, heavy fires
DMS Southard

This was the USN TF's fourth or fifth surface combat clash that phase, so she was low on ammo and ops points. CA Salt Lake City, the most heavily damaged ship, has 29 SYS/28 Flood/4 Engine. Of that number, 11 of the flood is the only major damage.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/20/2016 7:45:13 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 7:42:48 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Disregard double post.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/20/2016 7:44:44 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 8:44:19 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Thanks for the summary. Definitely a nice haul!

I am a little more optimistic that Hiryu and Hiyo sank. Those two have been quite fragile in my games, needing only about five bombs to sink them.

Since a fuel storage explosion does about the same damage as 2 x 1000 lb bombs and an ammo storage explosion does about as much as three x 1000 lb bombs, Hiryu took the equivalent of seven bombs and should be sunk.

Hiyo may have limped away but IJN carriers have trouble coping with both fire and flood damage together, so I say 60% on her being sunk.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 1:07:48 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		The KB is not dead but considerably diminished. The big change for John is that now the KB has to hide. The minute it shows up on the radar Dan can go into "Turkey Trots To Water" mode because the deathstar will always be much bigger

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 1:21:31 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
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Status: offline 		Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?

< Message edited by ny59giants -- 5/20/2016 1:29:15 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 1:40:00 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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Status: offline 		You did significant damage to CB Kawachi on the afternoon of Sept. 20. "CB Kawachi, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, on fire". Lost sight of her after that.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 1:42:06 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?



What a wonderful turn of events then. KB is reduced but not eliminated and the dance continues. John will still be formidable with LBA cover.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 2:58:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?


Interesting thoughts, Michael, thanks.

1. I think nearly every player agrees that we want to see and experience is a stronger Japan later in the game so that it remains more competitive and there is less reason for the IJ player to become disenchanted. And, by the same token, the one adjustment I think was called for in the game (at least this mod) was more parity in aircraft pools early ('41 and '42) so that the Japanese player could be effectively checked. My feelings were that the Allies were okay on the seas and on the ground, but the remarkable aircraft imbalance made it difficult for the Allies to offer battle. Now, I'm not sure that's the case with Stock and other mods (too long since I played them). But I survived early, almost made Sumatra work, and now that we're getting late into '43, I'm glad John has a lot more carriers coming. Michael has already posted a number of times that changes were made to the air OOB so that even this Mod isn't so imbalanced. So, perhaps my thoughts were limited to the smallest of situations and now even that has vanished into Mod history.

2. For recent readers, John (and many IJ players) using the Kongos as KB escorts. John detached them no later than February '43 to bombard Sabang nonstop into June. Kirishima even took a torp from a sub during one run. When KB moved into the Pacific in April or May '43, John kept the Kongos in Sumatra. You'll recall that my analysis (maybe Pinkerton-quality, but analysis nonetheless) was that he was very short on good capital ships to serve as escorts. So he grew accustomed to KB operating with a mishmash of capital ship escorts - many times my sightings showed KB with only CL and DD. Here he cobbled together a lot of capital ships, but the configurations were werid.

3. I know what you mean - reaction has always scared me to death (Miller will tell you why), so I used to use the "low aggression" commanders. But I didn't in this case. The CVs got very high-rated commanders, including aggression. I had the CVs set to follow a combat TF that had one slow BB embedded. Reaction didn't prove a problem, possibly because Steroid KB ended up eight hexes distant (but Mini KB was considerably closer). From that, I'll likely continue to use this configuration. The "lesson learned" may have been a false one, though, as I may later get stung by reaction.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/20/2016 3:24:55 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 5:15:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/23/43

Thin Man: The Naval Battle of Wake Island seems to be over, with both sides going separate ways. No clashes of any kind today. Most Allied carriers and combat ships are two days from Midway. Before they arrive, I'll detach a TF of damaged carriers to retire to Pearl for repair. I guess I'll also have to detach CV Victorious to return to San Francisco. She's due for withdrawl in less than three weeks. I hate to see her go. Over in the Marshalls, three Fletchers intercepted part of that troop convoy as she arrived at Roi-Namur, sinking a half dozen xAK, AKL, SC, etc. A fair number of squads were destroyed.

Recon keeps showing wildly inconstent troop levels in the Marshalls. Kwaj is reportedly way up but Roi way down. That would be weird - John would either reinforce both or withdraw from both. Wake is down again. So I'm not sure what's going on here.

Flying Trapeze: It looks like the Allies will be able to flip the ships in and out of Midway so that the invasion of Wake Island can proceed in short order. It probably will take the big ships one or two days to replenish sorties and ammo. But four slow BBs and two fast BBs have 100% main gun ammo, so the biggest concern isn't a concern. I've already offloaded a half dozen TBF and SBD squadrons to Midway to expedite replacement of aircraft. The carriers won't have 100% squadrons when they steam for Wake, but they'll probably be at 80-90 aircraft. Since KB can't intervene (unless I've misread things to a point that I would have to be cashiered) and since Wake is an isolated base with a level three airfield, that should be sufficient. The biggest threat will be subs, mines, and (possibly, but not likely) BBs if John chooses a "Charge of the Light Brigade" defense. Would he do that for Wake? Maybe. He's stinging a bit.

Circus/Carnival: Pretty quiet in NoPac, but (drat it) a sub stumbled across a massive troop TF outbound from Prince Rupert. So John will be on the alert for developments in NoPac. As for what's going on up here, I shall remain quite for awhile.

John III: John seems fine to me, which I expected but which wasn't necessrily guaranteed. As you gents have noted, Sudden Carrier Loss Syndrome is a pernicious foe.

So, where does he go from here? I think by necessity he becomes a fan of raiding. I think he'll use his combat ships to raid deep - Oz and NoPac are the two most likely targets. I probably have at least 10 days before he could put together such things, so I have to begin attending to interior defense or otherwise configure shipping so that he can't hit big, slow, vulnerable TFs deep inside my territory.

I'm not sure whether he'll use KB to keep me honest or to go raiding. At first he might lean towards the former. But as soon as Death Star is committed in length action somewhere, he might raid with KB (or detachments) elsewhere.

SigInt shows a regiment prepping for Tarawa. A few days back there was a similar report for Diego Garcia. There is a remote possibility that John might try amphibious ops in the Aluetians, Marshalls, Gilberts or elsewhere, but I don't think it's likely. He'd be exposing valuable ships too far forward. And I don't think any of these things gains him anything or costs me anything from a positional standpoint.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/20/2016 5:18:48 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6510
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