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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 5:39:37 PM   
Panther Bait


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Regarding the varying troop levels, could he be relaying troops via an air bridge from somewhere else? I know some of the cargo-float-planes based on the Emily used to at least be able to move troops great distances.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 6:15:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yes, that could be it. But the picture I'm seeing is pretty confusing. I had LRCAP over Kwaj and combat TFs visiting there for weeks without any sign of reinfocement. But then the garrison suddenly shot up from 9k to 12k (this could have been by fast transport or the like during the craziness of the naval battle, which might have distracted me). And while Kwaj went up, Roi went down. And Wake did a little of both.

So I'm not getting a good picture of what might be going on or what trend there might be. It isn't a significant tactical or operational issue (except Wake) because I don't have any near-term plans in the Marshalls. I'm just trying to get a feel for what John's thinking: forward defense or rearward defense.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 6:27:17 PM   
paullus99


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It would seem that you should be able to get a lot more troops into the area than John can right now....

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 7:15:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yes.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 8:07:09 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2. For recent readers, John (and many IJ players) using the Kongos as KB escorts. John detached them no later than February '43 to bombard Sabang nonstop into June. Kirishima even took a torp from a sub during one run. When KB moved into the Pacific in April or May '43, John kept the Kongos in Sumatra. You'll recall that my analysis (maybe Pinkerton-quality, but analysis nonetheless) was that he was very short on good capital ships to serve as escorts. So he grew accustomed to KB operating with a mishmash of capital ship escorts - many times my sightings showed KB with only CL and DD. Here he cobbled together a lot of capital ships, but the configurations were werid.




I think the lesson learned is that when his only real strike went in on day one, a large number of bombers attacked your embedded fast BB and ignored your carrier. Massachusetts took two torpedoes and a bomb that would have otherwise hit your carriers. This game has been around for a while and this fact is no secret. You have got to have BBs with your carriers. Anything otherwise is just bad planning.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 8:59:11 PM   
paullus99


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John putting so many carriers in one task force was his biggest mistake (among many).

He's also extremely over-confident...actually, he's the perfect Japanese player, since he exhibits so many of their real life faults.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 9:06:49 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

Canoerebel: And while Kwaj went up, Roi went down.


Rather than a FT TF bringing in new troops, I would expect that he used barges to bring some troops over to Kwaj. Could be because it has more supply, or maybe he just wants that one with the best (potential) port in the area to be a tough nut to crack.

Is there any sign that Wake got loaded up with bombers from his sunk/damaged CVs?
That could make your approach to the island risky unless you can provide a great CAP and reduce their numbers.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 9:49:15 PM   
JohnDillworth


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John put together a pretty credible strike to kill a BB at the end of the battle so he still has teeth. I believe Dan put one CV in the yards a few weeks back so that one may be back soon. Don't think John can go head to head (Dan is now in the one CV or CVL per month club) anymore but he can certainly raid, surprise, delay or work with land based air to be a factor. speaking of factors, am I wrong or did not a single sub put a single torpedo into a single cripple? poor performance on both side there

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 9:56:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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BBFanboy, the following graphic hopefully answers your question about Wake's air defenses.

You are probably right about Kwaj's reinforcements via barge.




Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 10:00:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

John put together a pretty credible strike to kill a BB at the end of the battle so he still has teeth. I believe Dan put one CV in the yards a few weeks back so that one may be back soon. Don't think John can go head to head (Dan is now in the one CV or CVL per month club) anymore but he can certainly raid, surprise, delay or work with land based air to be a factor. speaking of factors, am I wrong or did not a single sub put a single torpedo into a single cripple? poor performance on both side there


I don't think any subs have scored during the Naval Battle of Wake Island. Pretty remarkable.

I didn't have any carriers in the yards prior to the battle. But BB Washington was under repair after taking two torps from a sub while bombarding Kwajalein two or three weeks back.

John definitely still has teeth. But no longer is it a question of even odds in a fair encounter. Now John has to choose the place of fighting carefully. A week ago Steroid KB + Mini KB could put 1,000 aircraft in the air to Death Star's 1,100. Today, once damaged ships repair, KB might put, what, 400-500 aircraft in the air? That's dangerous of course. But the prospect of sending 400-500 against 1,000 or more will seem awfully daunting.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 11:31:00 PM   
Bearcat2

 

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When his CV's are repaired and he puts them all in one place, should be around 700 ac. [ using your post about CV's sunk].


< Message edited by Termite2 -- 5/20/2016 11:33:44 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 11:36:46 PM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?

I always prioritise air skills for my CVTF leaders, I almost disregard aggressive skills.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/20/2016 11:43:00 PM   
JeffroK


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SigInt shows a regiment prepping for Tarawa. A few days back there was a similar report for Diego Garcia. There is a remote possibility that John might try amphibious ops in the Aluetians, Marshalls, Gilberts or elsewhere, but I don't think it's likely. He'd be exposing valuable ships too far forward. And I don't think any of these things gains him anything or costs me anything from a positional standpoint.

Remain on guard for a "I've lost the game, lets have fun, damn the torpedoes" approach.

< Message edited by JeffK -- 5/21/2016 10:50:09 AM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:05:27 AM   
T Rav

 

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Whether you crush J3 next month or two years from now, you've already beat him at his own game. Stick with your game plan. Well played, Sir.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:22:17 AM   
Canoerebel


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9/24/43

Battle of Wake Island: No significant encounters today (a USN sub missed a shot at a DD in a TF near Marcus, so KB is probably heading to Tokyo).

BB Massachusetts and CL St. Louis arrived at Pearl. The latter can be ready in 43 days if set to "critical," which I've done. I have plenty of supply. Massachusetts will need many months in the yards, so she's going to West Coast.

CA Salt Lake City TF is en route to Pearl as is CV Enterprise TF. I think all of these ships will repair there. (BB South Dakota has 30 days left in the yards and will gobble up a lot of space until it's done.)

Flying Trapeze: The three-CVE TF from NoPac reached Midway and replenished sorties even though the AE hadn't quite reached port yet. CA Baltimore also replenished ammo. Death Star arrives tomorrow, as does the AE and an AKE. The Flying Trapeze ships could leave as soon as tomorrow and no later than the day after.

Thin Man: No real action here today. Allied AV at Kwaj up to 122. Still no discernible pattern in whether John is reinforcing or reducing these island garrisons.

Big Tent: The past two turns have been unusually efficient, mostly because ships had been pre-positioned in ideal places (more by accident than design) to pick up troops for "the next big thing." Death Star will need a week at Pearl after the invasion of Wake, but I do think the Big Tent invasion force will be ready to depart in as little as 30 days. That may be too optimistic - it's a huge undertaking - but it won't be far off the mark.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/21/2016 2:27:53 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:38:32 AM   
Canoerebel


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As the Battle of Wake Island winds down, Operation Flying Trapeze is just beginning to gain some momentum.




Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:46:45 AM   
Canoerebel


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If you're in the mood for a song with an oddly oriental flavor, but which reflects the times from the perspective of the good ol' Allied boys:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUn4DOGiY_A

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:49:12 AM   
Canoerebel


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Then I stumbled upon this. Is that a very young Jane Russell at 1:04?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjVh3tR7b3M

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:59:32 AM   
Bearcat2

 

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Yes, but she was 30 when The Las Vegas Story was made


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtT53Uu3qus

< Message edited by Termite2 -- 5/21/2016 3:02:49 AM >


_____________________________

"After eight years as President I have only two regrets: that I have not shot Henry Clay or hanged John C. Calhoun."--1837

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 3:02:50 AM   
Canoerebel


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Well, that makes sense. About two years ago, some university or the like issued the results of study that indicated that people perceive a woman as most beautiful at age 31. That came as a surprise to me. I figured it would be 22 or 24 or the like. But since I read that, I've often noted that there seems to be some merit. Woman in their late 20s and early 30s are often stunning. But then, as I grow older, there seems to be increasing elasticity in the measurement.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 8:52:22 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, that makes sense. About two years ago, some university or the like issued the results of study that indicated that people perceive a woman as most beautiful at age 31. That came as a surprise to me. I figured it would be 22 or 24 or the like. But since I read that, I've often noted that there seems to be some merit. Woman in their late 20s and early 30s are often stunning. But then, as I grow older, there seems to be increasing elasticity in the measurement.


It's that self-knowledge, that confidence and experience. The wink a 31 year-old woman is the allure of someone at the top of their game, who knows exactly what they're doing.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 9:49:14 AM   
Canoerebel


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9/25/43

Battle of Wake Island: No significant encounters or intel during the wind-up phases of this battle. A sub picked up three IJN DDs near Marcus. These were on a southwest heading. If that's accurate, I think John is drawing down his Aleutians navy to reinforce CenPac. BB Mass. is on the way to San Fran. CV Enterprise and CA Salt Lake City are well on the way to Pearl. Lots of enemy subs around Midway.

Operation Flying Trapeze: A lot of replenishing accomplished today, using up Midway's op points. I think the fleet can leave port tomorrow. Some TFs are leaving tonight, including the CA Baltimore TF. Speed is more important than replacing every single aircraft lost in the great battle. I want to move while John is still focusing on retrieving and reorganizing and before he can seriously reinforce Wake. D-Day in less than a week.

Thin Man: No encounters here either. I've shifted some fighter squadrons forward to Wotje. They can hop from here to the Flying Trapeze carriers if reinforcements are needed.

Circus/Carnival: Lots of troops transports on the move up here, shifting from Prince Rupert to Kodiak and Anchorage to load troops for amphibious assault.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 11:16:54 AM   
JohnDillworth


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How goes the tanker war? I believe in this mod initial fuel and resources in the HI are limited. your Sumatra adventure could have hurt that and the KB probably burnt up months of production so John is probably healthy but not flush

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 1:30:18 PM   
Crackaces


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Earlier it was posted that the Gilberts and Marshalls "are not strategic" .. It might not be a strategic location but I contend
the battlespace is a strategic configuration that favors the USN in confrontation. Although CR has struck in the middle of the battlespace
Tabiteuea, Beru, Nikunau, and Onotoa, chain in the Gilberts offers closely interlocking bases vs the Marshalls spread out configuration.
I believe this is key the way the game mechanics work.

CR has the Atoll attack worked out .. pick an isolated target, get more stuff with high firepower ratio to Stacking limit
on the island than the stacking limit of the target, and use bombardment and CV based air to overwhelm the target.

From a strategic aspect it forces the IJN to come out on play. The distance between bases allows the USN and USAF to concentrate
and LRCAP over time does not defend against multiple overwhelming attacks coming from multiple bases. The IJ might get a victory here and there but over time
the US overwhelms in this area ..For example, action burns supply .. IJ have to bring supply in which gives opportunity for subs to have targets
that supply takes fuel to bring from bases. etc...

Now somebody mentioned the DEI .. in my opinion this is one of the worse places to confront the IJ given the game mechanics. Simply
the IJ can build multiple bases with interlocking IJA fighter support adding the IJN aircraft at will. The area allows the IJ to
replace fighter groups and take replacements from close supply points.

Anyway .. I see CR continue to island hop now the KB has had a haircut. How does the IJ bring airpower into the battlespace without a KB? vs. Taking on the IJA powerbases elsewhere ..



< Message edited by Crackaces -- 5/21/2016 1:33:27 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 1:44:48 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Now somebody mentioned the DEI .. in my opinion this is one of the worse places to confront the IJ given the game mechanics. Simply
the IJ can build multiple bases with interlocking IJA fighter support adding the IJN aircraft at will. The area allows the IJ to
replace fighter groups and take replacements from close supply points.


bit of a different game for CR. I don't recall he (or many other players) doing the central pacific island hoping thing. Probably because the KB remains strong. Now it's to his advantage. Supply lines are pretty direct from Pearl. Take a base, build it up, load it with supply, on to the next one.
Dan, are you going to use the replenishment CVE's as replenishment CVE's? If so make sure to guard them with regular CVE's (both against raids and subs).
Eventually you have to go up against interlocking land based air but whats the rush?


_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:05:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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John mentioned this with his email last turn: "Michael will help get tracker running tomorrow."

I think he's (probably unintentionally) telling me something here. I don't use Tracker or any other information compilation source, so I might be missing something that he could be telling me.

The one thing I'd fear above all else (or, possibly, would have feared earlier in the game) is if John suddenly began paying close attention to radio signals concentrations in order to get a better fix on Death Star and other big convoys. That would have been especially troublesome when I was trying to sneak up on him at Hokkaido and then in the Marshalls.

I seem to recall one very good Japanese player using radio signal intercepts to basically track an Allied carrier TF right across the Pacific. That's scary!

Or does Tracker offer him something else related to the Japanese economy and production, of which I'm totally ignorant?

How do Japanese players benefit from Tracker?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:07:30 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

bit of a different game for CR. I don't recall he (or many other players) doing the central pacific island hoping thing.
Probably because the KB remains strong


I am mostly a Burma kind of guy .. but in three games minus a discontinued one with NJP72 .. I brought the KB out to the Gilberts and Marshals to play
over time they deplete fuel and supply given the long LOC ..that has strategic implications ...

Scenario's based on cutting out the 10% supply produced by refineries makes this problem even more complex for the IJ ..

In my first game everybody but Alfred and Nemo told me how strong the KB was .. but diversions and inciting the KB to react like CR has done is a great strategic advantage

Back to CR's AAR ..

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Post #: 6537
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:15:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
How goes the tanker war? I believe in this mod initial fuel and resources in the HI are limited. your Sumatra adventure could have hurt that and the KB probably burnt up months of production so John is probably healthy but not flush


I've answered this in detail many pages back, so forgive me if you've already read this (or if I'm not answering the question you asked).

Until spring '43, USN subs in the Pacific concentrated on sea lanes and choke points between the DEI and the Home Islands. I thought the subs were unusually successful in targeting enemy xAK and TK, and quite a few hits were scored even with the high dud rate.

Sometime in the spring, John began paying much more attention to this facet of the war, embedding escorts with his TF and using much more ASW aircraft. My losses went up and hits went down.

Later in the spring, anticipating the focal shift of the war to Hokkaido (late the Aleutians, later the Marshalls) I began to shift nearly all USN subs in the Pacific away from commerce raiding in favor of interdicting military traffic between the Home Islands and the island group under attack (or, in the case of the Marshalls, between there and Truk).

Allied subs have scored pretty well, including the well-advertised hit on Reikuku that probably had a material affect on the outcome of the naval battle). Some other capital ships and merchants have been hit between the Aleutians and the Kuriles.

Now that we're transitioning to a new phase of the war, I'm considering how my Pacific subs should be deployed. Until I get closer to Japan, and as long as I know where I'm heading in the near term, I think I prefer to employ them against the Japanese navy rather than in a merchant role. That will probably change once I get close enough to the Philippines to patrol the South China Sea with fuel efficiency.

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Post #: 6538
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:27:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

...CR has the Atoll attack worked out .. pick an isolated target, get more stuff with high firepower ratio to Stacking limit
on the island than the stacking limit of the target, and use bombardment and CV based air to overwhelm the target.

From a strategic aspect it forces the IJN to come out on play. The distance between bases allows the USN and USAF to concentrate
and LRCAP over time does not defend against multiple overwhelming attacks coming from multiple bases. The IJ might get a victory here and there but over time
the US overwhelms in this area ..For example, action burns supply .. IJ have to bring supply in which gives opportunity for subs to have targets
that supply takes fuel to bring from bases. etc...

Now somebody mentioned the DEI .. in my opinion this is one of the worse places to confront the IJ given the game mechanics. Simply
the IJ can build multiple bases with interlocking IJA fighter support adding the IJN aircraft at will. The area allows the IJ to
replace fighter groups and take replacements from close supply points.

Anyway .. I see CR continue to island hop now the KB has had a haircut. How does the IJ bring airpower into the battlespace without a KB? vs. Taking on the IJA powerbases elsewhere ..



1. I've learned a lot with atoll attacks, but I'm really interested in seeing how Wake goes - with two regiments 100% prepped.

2. I pick up a lot from comments by all you forumites. Some from years ago, like when I was bogged down in an intense and costly advance through the DEI against Miller (Timor, Ambon, Celebes, etc.), Bullwinkle asked me whether I had ever considered a CenPac advance. HIs theory was that the lack of interlocking airfields might prove a more conducive environment. I wasn't sure - in fact, I think I feared the idea of taking on any kind of Steroid KB in the open ocean. But I never forgot his idea and it played a part in choosing this course of action when it became clear that Sumatra would fall.

I was very fortunate to take most of the Marshalls without a fight. That's the most fearsome nest of interlocking bases in CenPac (at least, short of the Marianas). Properly garrisoned the Marshalls can be a beast. Or, can be until KB is whittled down.

At this point, Death Star and Reduced KB would allow me to move on basically any island group in the Pacific. There are reasons not to choose some (yet). Also, prep times and over-stacked defenses present other reasons. So I stared at the map for awhile a few days back to look for a way to act on the current carrier advantage without getting bogged down in battle against a very strongly defended atoll. I think I've found that vector, but we'll see.

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 6539
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/21/2016 2:32:17 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Probably because the KB remains strong. Now it's to his advantage. Supply lines are pretty direct from Pearl. Take a base, build it up, load it with supply, on to the next one.
Dan, are you going to use the replenishment CVE's as replenishment CVE's? If so make sure to guard them with regular CVE's (both against raids and subs).
Eventually you have to go up against interlocking land based air but whats the rush?



A great lesson learned by experience in this game. Until now, through five or six other matches, I'd never had an occasion in which CVE replenishment of aircraft would have been more useful than use them for air defense (CAP). In this game it would have been an advantage. Going forward, I'll be better prepared to know when to deploy CVEs in carrier roles or in replenishment roles.

With KB whittled down (for awhile anyhow), replenishment probably shouldn't be as big an issue going forward. So I might be inclined to continue using them as traditional carriers until the equation changes.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
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