Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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11/14/43
Big Tent: D-Day goes without a hitch, which is a rarity in this complex game. The three targeted bases are basically or totally undefended, meaning the Allies indeed achieved strategic surprise. (But not operational surprise, John keeps emphasizing - more about that below).
At Manikwari, 1st Cavalry Div. comes ashore in excellent condition and finds a small pioneer engineer unit (SigInt had disclosed this several months back). The cavalary, with 383 AV, low disruption, low fatigue, should take the base tomorrow. The big USN base force, the army engineering regiment, and the HQ unit are present to begin working on port and airfield facilities.
Biak and Noemfoor are undefended and will fall to the small units landed there (barring an unlikely Japanese spoiling attack).
Japanese subs didn't create problems; no sign of combat ships or carriers (I wish I had a lead on those guys); a small strike comes in from Palau well escorted by Franks and Georges. Death Star's massive CAP handled this with the Japanese suffering 3:1 losses (the only loss to speak of for the Allies was 10 Wildcats).
SigInt reports a division to Balikpapan, two divisions to Ambon (16th, as before, plus 2nd Guards, which previously was heading for Ternate), and Jap regiment to Aitape. These are very interesting. Combined with John's email comment (more about that below), this tells me alot about what he thinks. He thinks this is a fairly localized operation, but we're just getting started.
John does have enough level four airfields to pose some danger to the Allies, but they really don't worry me unless KB shows up. Like I said, I wish I knew it's whereabouts. Soon I'll have alot more nav search, so then I'll feel better. Then, when the first airfields are operational (probably within a week), things will stabilize.
In the meantime, I'm going to do something unusual. Rather than keeping all those TFs at Biak, Noemfoor and Manikwari to unload more troops and lots of supply, all of them are weighing anchor tonight. Death Star is moving aggressively NW towards Morotai. I don't want to leave shipping behind without air cover, so they have to come along. Death Star will take station a few hexes NW of Sorong, to cover landings there tomorrow (the most important target of them all; probably lightly defended, but we'll see) and four hexes from Morotai. If things go well, the invasion of Morotai (5th Indian Div.) will take place in two or three days.
If that's successful, the threat to PI and vicinity becomes more real and imminent. I think John then shifts his highes priority to attending to Borneo/PI/etc., probably rendering some places (Aitape, Boela, Babo, Taberfane, Saumlauki, Merauke, Horn Island, etc) less important. If I'm right, he diverts some troops that otherwise might come into the main target area.
Ambon will be interesting. If he parks two divisions there, I probably don't invade. Instead, I'd use that division for some other likely base that might neutralize Ambon.
At some point, I do have to pull back to establish a viable LOC. I might do this via the north coast of New Guinea, but far more likely I'll go along the south coast, aiming for the Saumlauki/Taberfane complex, Merauke, Horn Island, and Port Moresby. If those are taken, I have a fairly secure route to good ports (but a long way off) and John has a problem on the north end of the DEI that he probably can't remedy. His only option will be to create a new firewall closer to home.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 
What about Manado? Do you have guys prepped for Manado? 
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