Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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11/15/43 Today was an exceptionally eventful and good day for the Allies leaving many opportunities (and decisions to make) for tomorrow. Big Tent: Amphibious assaults at Sorong, Sansapor and Waigeo go without a hitch. Only Sorong is defended, and that's by a fragment of 1st Raiding Regiment probably airlifted in. 41st Div., two naval BF, two construction regiments and an HQ are ashore. All three bases will fall tomorrow. Manikwari and Biak fell today and Noemfoor will fall tomorrow (I ordered an attack there, I swear, but apparently I didn't). Manik and Sorong were the heart of this operation. They were the first major targets and this op can succeed even if no other major targets are taken. John will have something to say about that, but so far so good. Sorong will get four construction regiments so that it can be built big as fast as possible. Jap subs were present, sinking a AK, an SC, and damaging an APA. One of the subs was badly damaged by ASW. But John had vectored the subs on Manikwari even as I was moving everything to Sorong and vicinity. So John seemed to evaluate this as a slowly unfolding op limited to a fairly restricted area. He may be drawing different conclusions now. DD Jupiter detached and patrolled Ambon (this was a notion given by one of you readers yesterday) and struck gold. It found and tore into a big and defenseless merchant convoy carrying troops. Jupiter sank ten ships and destroyed something like 75 squads before running out of ammo. In possibly the most important development, patrols find KB at Manus. John's probably moving them to the Big Tent AOO, but they can't arrive for a couple of more days. This provides some latitude to move more boldly. John had his reasons, of course, but for his Kongos and KB to be down in the Solomons while the herd was lumbering slowly across CenPac is, I think, devastatingly counterproductive for him. Now I have an important decision to make: the herd can roll west and invade Morotai (probably weakly defended) and an adjacent base or two tomorrow, or it can move WSW, invade a few targeted dot hexes, but take control of the skies and sea lanes around Ceram. Morotai, Ambon and Boela are all major targets. I'm leaning towards a split - invading Morotai but detaching a few Fletchers to patrol at Ambon. With what happened today, John might fear Death Star moving on Ambon or other dangers to his divisions (assuming that's what's being carried), so he may divert his TFs south. Indeed, the SigInt reporting 2nd Guards bound for Ternate and then for Ambon now reports it is headed for Soerabaja. And what happens in three days when (and if) KB arrives in theater? What if Death Star moves south towards Ceram or east from there, keeping New Guinea between the two carrier forces. I'm not necessarily afraid of KB, but I don't want to take it on amidst a nest of supporting enemy airfields. But since Boela and Babo are important targets, I could attend to them and them move into a no-man's-land where I'd gladly meet KB head on. Of course, my newly taken bases are then on their own for awhile, but the major ones will have divisions well prepped. No way John can retake them short term. And it shouldn't be too long before the Allies get airfields of their own. John may try to suppress via bombing, but what if he has ten or fifteen targets to deal with? The number of variables involved in the equation is immense. It's challenging and very exciting. There is danger, but great opportunity. And knowing where KB is makes all the difference.
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