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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 12:09:23 PM   
ny59giants


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Joined: 1/10/2005
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quote:

subs, subs, subs. much greater danger than the KB


Agree!! Where are all your 18 plane FP groups?? I would be moving them forward to do ASW work at some of these bases.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 12:53:09 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Agree!! Where are all your 18 plane FP groups?? I would be moving them forward to do ASW work at some of these bases.

all the CVE's should be doing TBF search and ASW at low altitude and short range. Dan , you get dozens and dozens of DE's in the next month couple of months. more than enough to start creating hunter killer groups. Right now subs are a much bigger threat than the KB. Got extra Catalina? low altitude ASW. Find em and kill em

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 1:34:09 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Relax. Why are you assuming these things haven't been done?

Most of the CVE TBFs are flying only ASW duty along with a few other squadrons of various types. I'm getting decent detection on these subs and there have been numerous ASW attacks the past two turns. I think one sub was hit pretty hard today.

John will flood the zone with subs, so there is danger.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 1:58:17 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Relax. Why are you assuming these things haven't been done?



It's the looming bulk of the cold steel beasts and the ephemeral and ghostly susurration when heard on sonar. It makes everyone jumpy

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 7/4/2016 2:01:43 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7354
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 2:21:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It's the eldritch threnody as a Force 7 gale passes through the rigging of the old four stackers, ululating ungraciously 'midst the hale men of Ol' Alabamy.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 3:01:03 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's the eldritch threnody as a Force 7 gale passes through the rigging of the old four stackers, ululating ungraciously 'midst the hale men of Ol' Alabamy.
Those are definitely shades of deep purple (sorry, couldn't resist the opportunity of referencing an early album by my favorite band).

As for the KB holding around Aitape, I think that is the IJN protecting inbound shipping from the possibility of marauding by the Death Star or SCTF. I think it is a sign he has LCU reinforcements arriving there that need cover.


_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 3:39:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yes, I agree that he seems to be protecting his own shipping.

One of the challenges all of us face in AE is trying to put ourselves in the shoes of our opponents rather than over emphasizing our own worst fears as to what the enemy might do. John is dealing with his own concerns, limitations (fuel?) and perceptions of opportunity.

My biggest concern has been that he would be desperate (or bold) enough to send KB racing into the Big Tent AOO. While he might not win the clash, there is a chance he could. But most definitely that would impact my ability to attend to my new bases and ensure the important ones can withstand a strong counterattack in the near term.

But what is John thinking? His AAR posts and force disposition suggest that he does not yet realize (or consider) Big Tent as isolating and rendering almost irrelevant his more forward positions. I think he does look at Big Tent as the wagon train surrounded by hostiles.

So is he building up bases like Aitape to cut off the wagon train? Does he counterinvade Wake and Midway? I know in the early stages he focused on Biak..and I think that's still a priority for him.

He made a big deal of predicting that the invasion was aimed at Biak, Manikwari and Sorong. Does the expansion to Morotai and now towards Ceram affect his view and make him more anxious? I thought so and expected him to deploy KB ASAP, and perhaps he will.

There is great danger out there for both of us, but especially me early in these confined spaces close to enemy bases. But I do think this campaign is won or lost early. Each day KB dawdles is a dagger in John's hopes, to my way of thinking.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/4/2016 3:43:23 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 4:20:27 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		You were able to interdict his landings at Ambon three days in a row? To me that says he expected you to go NW toward Manado rather than hook southwest into the eastern DEI. He does not yet realize that you can make a corridor back to Oz, and move your thundering herd out of range of KB. New Guinea makes a nice bulwark!

If you can get Ternate and Ambon you will have nicely isolated their islands from uncontested landings and I doubt he has the wherewithal to put together invasions any time soon. Steam on, errant knight!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 4:34:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I probably won't be going for Ternate - at least in the near or medium term. John had it garrisoned already and had two divisions heading there a week ago, though both of them have since been diverted. But he has lots of air there and clearly that's central to his thoughts. I perceive most of my time being spent attending to what I have and eventually getting my carriers replenished before I can go venturing into Japanese-controlled waters. That will give him weeks to reinforce Ternate.

Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. The Big Tent challenge was/is to take a lot but not too much - to take and build enough bases to really hurt Japan, but not to overextend and end up frittering away my advantage through dilution.

If I can hold and build Manikwari, Morotai, Sorong, Boela, Babo, Taberfane (and/or Dabo and/or Saullauki) and then possibly add Namlea/Ambon and Horn Island/Port Moresby, that is defensible and, I think, pretty devastating to John.

I'm not in a position to go after Kendari, Ternate, Manado, Davao. Eventually it may happen, or perhaps I pick up all my ships and go somewhere easier.

I'm my "Shattered Vow" game with Miller back in '09-'10, I was in exactly the same place in late November 1943 - trying to take Ambon. I'd come the hard way, though, and repeatedly beat my head against his bulwarks. Eventually I tired of it, created a new amphibious armada, sailed into the South China Sea, and invaded China.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 5:01:21 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's the eldritch threnody as a Force 7 gale passes through the rigging of the old four stackers, ululating ungraciously 'midst the hale men of Ol' Alabamy.


I've only heard "ululating" to mean that wailing some Islamic women do to express deep sorrow, as when a child dies. May be there in other cultures, but I've seen it in video from the Middle East.

Always thought it came from use of the uvula. (Look it up if needed. )

I guess ululating means rapid frequency shifts?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 5:27:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah. I mentioned a few pages back that Alistair MacLean always used "ululating," "threnody" and "eldritch" when describing storms at sea.

But you and Cap Mandrake are correct in point out that it also describes the sorrow (or glee, in the case of misfortune of their enemies) by Islamic women.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 5:39:51 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah. I mentioned a few pages back that Alistair MacLean always used "ululating," "threnody" and "eldritch" when describing storms at sea.

But you and Cap Mandrake are correct in point out that it also describes the sorrow (or glee, in the case of misfortune of their enemies) by Islamic women.

Right! Their version of "Banzai!"

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 6:27:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/18/43

Big Tent: A productive fifth day, but John deploys KB forward. That's the move that disrupts me the most, so I think it's his best move.

Allied ASW sank an RO-boat at Sorong. That airfield goes to level one and gets Corsairs and Lightning from Oz. A big step forward. USN DDs replenish torps at the level one port solely because of naval support. That's a good development.

Boela auto-flips to the Allies. It has a good garrison now and can stand for awhile on its own if need be. John loses 25 oil production here.

Landings at Babo show the base very weakly held by a cadre of IJA 16th Div. Allies land about 60 AV, s this important base should fall soon. This base has 20 oil production, I think.

USN DDs mess up a large troop TF near Saumlauki, destroying 50 squads and 30 guns/vehicles. At this point I don't see any other troop transports near or heading towards bases I hope to take.

John doesn't yet have a naval present in the Ceram area. I'm sure he's working on that.

Allied 4EB and 2EB work over Horn Island and PM. The latter has 50 Franks on LRCAP from Lae, etc.

SigInt again shows lots going on here and yonder. An IJ regiment is inbound to very weakly defended Biak. John really seems to want that. I don't want to lose it, but won't risk ships in proximity to KB. If he fixates on Biak a turn or two then it's paid a handsome dividend.

Third Ring: Judys sortie from Tagula (near Milne) and sink to RN DDs that were feeling out defenses too efficiently.

Marhsalls: BB Washington is going to make her break for Pearl. She can make 8 knots. Recon shows Kwaj and Roi empty of strike aircraft (Big Tent serving as a vortex). Good DDs are embedded with Washington and leading her also.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 6:48:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thus far Big Tent has taken four major targets (all but Ambon), 11 minor targets, and has just landed at two more minor targets (though Babo is really pretty important). Tomorrow should four more landings - three of these bases (Dabo, Taberfane and Kai) really are significant. The fourth, Kaimana on the south side of New Guinea near Babo, can be important.

John is going to counter-invade in the vacuum I've left behind. He'll take Biak and probably take others. He'll bombard and bomb. But the key question is this: can he take control of the AAO before the herd can replenish, either at a base in the AOO or at Normanton? I don't think he can.

But I am out of amphibious troops after tomorrow's assaults. So I'm going to have to unload amphibious troops somewhere and then reload if I wish to move on Ambon, Namlea, Merauke, etc. The herd has three divisions strat loaded. There are also at many troops waiting in Normanton, Portland Roads, etc.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 7:50:25 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Did you not bring some paras?

For undefended bases you can use the remnant attack method. Load up 1 or two LSI's with 100 troops.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 7:58:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No paras. They all got marooned in the Marshalls. I do have some in Oz.

I will use LCIs and LSTs as soon as KB backs off or as soon as I have the airfields/replenished CV fighters to protect.

If KB loiters or moves in, I'll keep pulling back to Oz to replenish. If KB backs off and there's a shot to replenish at Boela, I'll do it and then invade Ambon and Namlea.

The carriers are only 28 hexes from Normanton, Oz, now, so it's pretty darned close.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/4/2016 8:01:19 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 9:15:51 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		This thread got pretty purple for a while...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 9:31:26 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
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Status: offline 		Is there any space for a Squadron or 2 of C-47's at your major base??

They can provide lift for reinforcing flights into your newly built airbases.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 9:33:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Sorong is the only base in the AAO with an airfield. It just went to level one today. So no ability to fly transport missions nor anywhere to fly them to. Yet.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/4/2016 9:36:00 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 10:25:35 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		keep your eyes peeled for surface raiders. John loves to throw nighttime combat task forces in. nice to know here the KB is but it would also be nice to know where his CA's and BB's are (we know where his CL's are, sunk).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2016 10:33:43 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sorong is the only base in the AAO with an airfield. It just went to level one today. So no ability to fly transport missions nor anywhere to fly them to. Yet.


Just keep in mind, in case you don't already pay attention to these things, that you can only do "combat drops" out to the normal range of the aircraft - but that you can do troop transport missions out to half of the range of the aircraft (so 15 for DC-3/C-47, and much farther for C-87, etc.). This is why I keep looking back at Gove and Merauke - absolutely crucial in order to easily leverage your transport aircraft. It sounds like this is already in your plans.

Of course, PA-type planes will do in a pinch.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 2:43:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/19/43

Big Tent: A good day as Allied landings at Dobo, Taberfane and Kaimana are unopposed. The latter two will fall tomorrow. Dobo has 2k enemy troops - probably a division fragment. I have most of a Canadian brigade that will rest a few days. Most importantly, John can't build these bases to create a blocking position directly on my route of egress.

KB is posted up near Biak, I think to control that area. His LBA - lots of Franks - swept Sorong and handled the small CAP there. So I think John is mainly focused defensively - or counteroffensively - and doesn't mean to seek a carrier battle short term.

But Death Star will suddenly change direction tomorrow and return to the Ceram Sea. This may catch him by surprise. If he moves KB that way, a carrier battle occurs although neither side was actively looking for one yet.

For me, it's either return (having secured my egress route) and reassert my "you'll have to come and root me out) position" or I have to retire to Normanton to replenish. Those were really my two options. Dawdlings around Taberfane or vicinity, indecisive in no-man's-land, wasn't a good option, to my way of thinking.

Third Ring: Allied bombing missions have closed Horn Island and have roughed up PM's airfield. All troops are in position. Fighters are making the hops to Big Tent. P47s don't have legs to reach Sorong, so a squadron flew to Manikwari today. That field just went to level one.

Bearded Lady: Way over in the Marshalls, Washington made a good exit from Maloelap today, en route to Pearl for repairs. Subs will be a concern, but after tomorrow planes should be out of range. I think the Big Tent vortex is sucking in all of John's assets (mine too). The Marshalls no longer feel like the front lines.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 2:54:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John's email message with last turn: "I am pretty certain you are done with prepped targets now. Better be careful..."

Thus far during Big Tent he's sent messages to the following effect:

1. "I told my AAR readers that I needed until November 1" (suggesting as the op rolled west from Pearl Harbor that I given him enough time after the Naval Battle of Wake Island to refresh his navy).
2. "You better not come to the Marianas or Truk BABY!"
3. "I told my AAR readers that you'd be coming for Biak and vicinity..."
4. "...Better be careful..."

I want to ask, but won't:

1. Did your foresight extend to Morotai, Boela, Babo, Taberfane, and Dobo?
2. Why was this region undefended and unprepared? Is it because you kept sending your entire military to the latest hotspots (the "send everything to the center of the map and have an all-out fight" gambit) like Sumatra, the Aleutians and the Marshalls, choosing solely to focus on near term while completely ignoring the medium and long term.

John prevailed in the Sumatra campaign, but at consequences like this.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 3:35:30 PM   
crsutton


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From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Nice back door job. More bases snapped up that I would have thought possible. I don't think you need any more. Allies don't need everything to dominate an area. He can't build bases as fast as you can. That is the key now.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 3:46:30 PM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
Joined: 3/19/2004
Status: offline 		I see three outcomes for a CV Clash:
1) You “get the die rolls” and wipe out the rest of his CV’s. What happens then – will John have the will to fight on to the bitter end?
2) You don’t “get the die rolls” and lose badly – if this happens, the whole OP could be put in jeopardy as you’ve lost control of the sloc.
3) You split the battle, which makes the next few months interesting as you are both going to struggle for control of the supply lanes.

I think honestly, the best possible outcome for you would be #3 – as that way, the fight is back to a slugfest. If 1 happens, not sure if the match will last much longer. If 2 happens… it’s banzai time.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 3:53:54 PM   
Anachro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John prevailed in the Sumatra campaign, but at consequences like this.



I think you are reading too much into the effects of Sumatra. That was a real victory for him; it had no bearing on the situation now.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 3:55:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Ross (crsutton, for those who don't know the Birkestock wearing dude from the Old Line State), I agree. The Allies don't need everything. With a few exceptions the expansion era of Big Tent is finished. The exceptions are Namlea and Ambon, which I'd like to take for the aifields and to give myself broad enough shoulders that John has real difficulty penetrating into my "heartland," which is the Ceram Sea (Ceram to Sorong and Manikwari).

Third Ring is ready to go. It includes many support troops for Big Tent venues - base forces, engineers and AAs for islands like Taberfane, Dobo, Kai-Ellenden, etc. These islands weren't part of the original Big Tent, but were added when it became clear John was trying to garrison them strongly. I had extra troops amphibious loaded, fortunately. These were the troops I decided not to use against Wolei, plus troops bound for places like Vanimo and Hansa Bay, which are no longer targets through the short term and probably into the medium term.

Third Ring is also tasked with securing the balance of the LOC between Big Tent and Oz: Merauke, Horn Island, Port Moresby being the major targets.

(in reply to AcePylut)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 3:58:53 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I see three outcomes for a CV Clash:
1) You “get the die rolls” and wipe out the rest of his CV’s. What happens then – will John have the will to fight on to the bitter end?
2) You don’t “get the die rolls” and lose badly – if this happens, the whole OP could be put in jeopardy as you’ve lost control of the sloc.
3) You split the battle, which makes the next few months interesting as you are both going to struggle for control of the supply lanes.

I think honestly, the best possible outcome for you would be #3 – as that way, the fight is back to a slugfest. If 1 happens, not sure if the match will last much longer. If 2 happens… it’s banzai time.



Option 1 is to be avoided. You don't want the war to be over when everything is going so well.

(in reply to AcePylut)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 3:59:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro
I think you are reading too much into the effects of Sumatra. That was a real victory for him; it had no bearing on the situation now.


Sumatra was a huge victory for John and it was a huge defeat for him. It was a huge defeat for me and a huge victory for me.

What happened in Sumatra has had a direct effect on everything that's happened since then, mostly because John had tunnel vision. He focused way too much on near-term objectives, thus forgetting to attend to potential longterm objectives. His tunnel vision on Sumatra cost him the Aleutians. His tunnel vision on Sumatra and NoPac cost him the Marshalls. His tunnel vision on the Marshalls and Marianas cost him the Big Tent region (at least to this point). He keeps getting whipsawed from one energency to the next, from one region to another. He focuses totally on the emergency at hand forgetting to do his house chores in other regions. And the emergencies commenced with Sumatra and have never stopped.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/5/2016 4:05:27 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2016 4:00:06 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's email message with last turn: "I am pretty certain you are done with prepped targets now. Better be careful..."

Thus far during Big Tent he's sent messages to the following effect:

1. "I told my AAR readers that I needed until November 1" (suggesting as the op rolled west from Pearl Harbor that I given him enough time after the Naval Battle of Wake Island to refresh his navy).
2. "You better not come to the Marianas or Truk BABY!"
3. "I told my AAR readers that you'd be coming for Biak and vicinity..."
4. "...Better be careful..."

I want to ask, but won't:

1. Did your foresight extend to Morotai, Boela, Babo, Taberfane, and Dobo?
2. Why was this region undefended and unprepared? Is it because you kept sending your entire military to the latest hotspots (the "send everything to the center of the map and have an all-out fight" gambit) like Sumatra, the Aleutians and the Marshalls, choosing solely to focus on near term while completely ignoring the medium and long term.

John prevailed in the Sumatra campaign, but at consequences like this.



I know taunting isn't your style, but maybe something along the lines of ...

"So what am I supposed to be careful of again?"

"Take em back, BABY! Go ahead, make my DAY!"

"Nice to see SIGINT about your eight divisions on boats roaming the Pacific looking for a place to land. Send em this way please!"

"I bet the Marianas and Truk are crowded and hot this time of year. Looks like the beaches in Sorong are empty, and the water is nice! Bring the KB. Come for a swim!"

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro
I think you are reading too much into the effects of Sumatra. That was a real victory for him; it had no bearing on the situation now.


Sumatra was a huge victory for John and it was a huge defeat for him. It was a huge defeat for me and a huge victory for me.

What happened in Sumatra has had a direct effect on everything that's happeend since then, mostly because John had tunnel vision. He focused way too much on near-term objectives, thus forgetting to attend to potential longterm objectives. His tunnel vision on Sumatra cost him the Aleutians. His tunnel vision on Sumatra and NoPac cost him the Marshalls. His tunnel vision on the Marshalls and Marians cost him the Big Tent region (at least to this point). He kept getting whip-sawed from one region to another. He focused totally on the emergency at hand forgetting to do his house chores. And the emergencies commenced with Sumatra and have never stopped coming.


You're killing him now because he didn't modify his play AFTER Sumatra to shift to defense. He could have, but didn't.

Sumatra was not effective, it was a massive defeat for the Allies. John's play after that has been misguided to say the least and yours has been stellar, but these results are not because of Sumatra. They are in spite of Sumatra. This doesn't take away from anything you've done since, but that is since. Wars hinge on a few changes in strategy and tactics. You've adapted and your opponent has not.

< Message edited by obvert -- 7/5/2016 4:07:34 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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