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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 10:54:59 AM   
kjnoel

 

Posts: 104
Joined: 3/10/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

It's a good thing you're both doing an AAR since you're both so good at spinning the outcomes!


I have to second this. It's fascinating reading both sides, kind of like watching the newsreels from both sides during WW2. The truth is in the middle somewhere

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 751
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 12:29:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for chiming in on the potentially charged political question, gents.  I was confident that you guys would handle it well, as you did, and I really did want your thoughts.  One of the historical topics I've covered most deeply in my years of research and writing has been the efforts of southerners who opposed secession.  They were in a tough position and suffered for their viewpoints.  Anyhow, thanks again for giving your thoughts.  Now I'll get back to the game.

In a considerate way, John brought up that I have just violated one of the House Rules.  I used one small B-17E squadron and one small B-17D squadron at Chungking to target two small IJA units moving across open terrain SE of Changsha.  My purpose was to slow down these units.  I had totally forgotten that there is the House Rule prohibiting use of 4EB against troops in the open.  John handled it well.  I'll notify him that I'll stop and that we can re-do the turn if he wishes to.

That's one reason I hate House Rules.  While the rule may have a good purpose (to prevent the Allies from using 50 4EB to destroy enemy troops in the open), my use was reasonable and for an entirely different purpose.  So, while I violated the rule, I wasn't violating the spirit of the rule.  Meanwhile, John uses massed 2EB against Chinese in open terrain to totally obliterate them.  So, he keeps the rule, but violates the spirit of the rule (IMO).  I say this only because in China the Allies have an extremely limited ability to offer CAP to troops outside of the few major cities that have supply.  But Japan is free to bring the entire airforce against the Chinese.  Oh well, I'm not going to broach this with John (at least not now, as doing so would seem to be retaliatory for his invoking - properly, I hasten to add - the House Rule).

Now, I have a new turn in the box, so it's time to run it and see what's going on.  :)

(in reply to kjnoel)
Post #: 752
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 1:35:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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quote:

ORIGINAL: kjnoel
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

It's a good thing you're both doing an AAR since you're both so good at spinning the outcomes!


I have to second this. It's fascinating reading both sides, kind of like watching the newsreels from both sides during WW2. The truth is in the middle somewhere


It's common to stretch things, but I can't imagine John is claiming that the air war has been going well for him, either in China or anywhere else. On the turn I was referring to, he lost 63 aircraft. I think I lost 15. Overall, John has lost 600+ more aircraft than I have (roughly 2,000 to 1,400). That's a net increase of 600 in the past month or so.

As for the ground war, I do realize both sides are presenting this differently (I know, because I often read the title of John's posts - like "Tipping Point" - so I get a good feel for his state of mind). I honestly think the Chinese are doing fine and that John has mangled things pretty badly in engaging in so many low-odds attacks. He has, however, made some inroads that has him pretty excited. We'll find out soon who's assessment is being more accurate. I don't think the truth "lies somewhere in the middle."

Caveat: I know he's feeding more troops into China. This may eventually unbalance things for the Allies, who aren't able to commit additional reinforcements to the theater at this point. But, as noted earlier, if John is putting most of his eggs into the China basket, that says alot about his situation everywhere else.

(in reply to kjnoel)
Post #: 753
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 1:42:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/15/42
 
Australia:  A patroling ASW ship near Lord Howe Island reports detection level of 4/4.  Can a Glen get a look that good or is this likely a CS or more?  I have 180 fighters at Melbourne, so my ships should be okay, but I'm keeping my carriers offshore until the situation resolves just a bit.  No sign of imminent activity in the Perth area.

DEI/Philippines:  The Allies still control Batavia, Manado, Clark Field and Bataan.  These should be extinquishes over the next couple of weeks.

India:  No signs - yet - of an imminent move on Ceylon, India or Assam.  Viz airfield goes to level three and will get a 75-level base force.  Most of the fighters are spread between Colombo, Madras and Calcutta.

China:  Fairly quiet today.  The Chinese have closed off the two road hexsides leading to the interior IJ base.  Those two 4EB squadrons didn't do much damage while breaking the House Rules - 3 B-17E disrupted two squads; two B-17D didn't do anything.  The besieged and isolated little Chinese army at Nanning held against a high odds shock attack and inflicted more casualties than they suffered.  I think I'll open a hexside tomorrow.  :)

Pacific:  Quiet.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 754
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 3:47:31 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for chiming in on the potentially charged political question, gents.  I was confident that you guys would handle it well, as you did, and I really did want your thoughts.  One of the historical topics I've covered most deeply in my years of research and writing has been the efforts of southerners who opposed secession.  They were in a tough position and suffered for their viewpoints.  Anyhow, thanks again for giving your thoughts.  Now I'll get back to the game.

In a considerate way, John brought up that I have just violated one of the House Rules.  I used one small B-17E squadron and one small B-17D squadron at Chungking to target two small IJA units moving across open terrain SE of Changsha.  My purpose was to slow down these units.  I had totally forgotten that there is the House Rule prohibiting use of 4EB against troops in the open.  John handled it well.  I'll notify him that I'll stop and that we can re-do the turn if he wishes to.

That's one reason I hate House Rules.  While the rule may have a good purpose (to prevent the Allies from using 50 4EB to destroy enemy troops in the open), my use was reasonable and for an entirely different purpose.  So, while I violated the rule, I wasn't violating the spirit of the rule.  Meanwhile, John uses massed 2EB against Chinese in open terrain to totally obliterate them.  So, he keeps the rule, but violates the spirit of the rule (IMO).  I say this only because in China the Allies have an extremely limited ability to offer CAP to troops outside of the few major cities that have supply.  But Japan is free to bring the entire airforce against the Chinese.  Oh well, I'm not going to broach this with John (at least not now, as doing so would seem to be retaliatory for his invoking - properly, I hasten to add - the House Rule).

Now, I have a new turn in the box, so it's time to run it and see what's going on.  :)


Ah, but you see my dear Rebel, a 500lb bomb dropped from a two-engine aircraft is a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT animal than the same ordnance dropped from a four-engine plane. The temerity to not recognize the difference !

Down with House Rules!!!

_____________________________

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Post #: 755
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 4:04:55 PM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
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quote:

Thanks for chiming in on the potentially charged political question, gents.


One more thing about the main point. The sane side of the issue is, of course, the bit about following versus not following unlawful orders. That's very stark when it comes to some of the things this forum has dealt with (ie war crimes) and is just as real although less sexy and obvious when it comes to lesser things. The notion of arresting federal officials engaged in enforcing federal law sounds beyond even being 'out on a limb', though. I have heard of at least one case where a county sheriff informed a federal agency that its agents would be physically opposed/arrested if they again conducted an illegal seizing of property (meaning without a proper court order). But that was a matter of an administrative decision by an agency to seize and dispose of the property now (cattle) and let the matter languish in court for perhaps a decade while the family in question decided to incur financial ruin if it fought the legal battle. Facing the specter of a right-now up-front legal battle with a county sheriff stayed their hand. But that was a case where the law (including federal) favored the citizen, and the federal agency in question was clearly misbehaving.

Another big issue where this comes up is over legalizing certain uses of certain drugs. How many states have legalized medical marijuana, or perhaps even gone further. State, county, local officials are not (so far as I understand) required under the constitution to enforce federal laws. So they obey their state, etc. laws. Federal officials can and do prosecute some people who are (presumably) acting within the laws of the state where they are, on the grounds that they are violating federal laws that conflict with them. The legitimacy or illegitimacy of 'medical marijuana' is a different issue altogether.

Law enforcement in the US, as well as military, take an oath to protect, preserve and defend the Constitution.

So there really are multiple issues. First, federal laws that conflict with state laws. Sure federal laws take legal precedent, but many people will not be soothed by that fact. Second, federal laws that are seen (by an individual in question) to clearly be unconstitutional. Third, orders which are seen (by an individual in question) to clearly be unlawful.

My point here, of course, is about framing the issue. I have no magic solution that will make everybody happy.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 2/22/2013 4:09:29 PM >

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Post #: 756
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/22/2013 4:06:49 PM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/15/42
 
Australia:  A patroling ASW ship near Lord Howe Island reports detection level of 4/4.  Can a Glen get a look that good or is this likely a CS or more?  I have 180 fighters at Melbourne, so my ships should be okay, but I'm keeping my carriers offshore until the situation resolves just a bit.  No sign of imminent activity in the Perth area.

DEI/Philippines:  The Allies still control Batavia, Manado, Clark Field and Bataan.  These should be extinquishes over the next couple of weeks.

India:  No signs - yet - of an imminent move on Ceylon, India or Assam.  Viz airfield goes to level three and will get a 75-level base force.  Most of the fighters are spread between Colombo, Madras and Calcutta.

China:  Fairly quiet today.  The Chinese have closed off the two road hexsides leading to the interior IJ base.  Those two 4EB squadrons didn't do much damage while breaking the House Rules - 3 B-17E disrupted two squads; two B-17D didn't do anything.  The besieged and isolated little Chinese army at Nanning held against a high odds shock attack and inflicted more casualties than they suffered.  I think I'll open a hexside tomorrow.  :)

Pacific:  Quiet.

Yes, but there is no guarantee the plane came from a sub!

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Post #: 757
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 2:09:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/16/42
 
Today was a rough day redeemed by John's self-inflicted wounds. 
 
China in the Air:  I set up a snazzy little fighter ambush.  I guessed right - that John would focus his sweeps on Changsha while sending in mostly unescorted bombers to target my little army at his interior base.  So, I moved my P-40Es from Chungking to Changsha, set them at 100% LRCAP over the interior base (two hexes distant). This way, my fighter wouldn't contest the sweeps over Changsha but would get cracks at his unescorted bombers. Only it didn't work that way.  My "LRCAP" flew CAP over Changsha and got mangled by the sweeps - in fact, it looked like they performed extra poorly since they were set at LRCAP.  Meanwhile, essentially none of them flew the actual LRCAP mission.  So I lost a heckuva lot of good fighters for no purpose, other than to learn that such fancy configuring doesn't work well.  That's a lesson worth learning, I suppose.

China on the Ground:  I was feeling most glum over these events, but John made me feel better by engaging in two bad attacks.  A shock attack at Changsha cost him 135 squads destroyed and 150 disrupted (the Chinese lost about 7 with about an equal number disrupted).  Then, in the adjacent hex, an IJ deliberate attack cost Japan 100 squads destroyed and 225 disrupted.  The Chinese only lost 2 with 40 disrupted. John has five divisions in these two hexes.  They are really taking it on the chin and aren't going to be worth anything for a long time (since this is just one in a prolonged series of low odds attacks; the fact that John doesn't have a road open to either hex - meaning low supply I hope - is adding to his woes here.)

China Situation:  The Japanese are reinforceing the interior base by air, bringing in most of an infantry regiment and some support units.  I am hoping that the best John can do is to bring enough supply to make the base defensible but that his units won't have enough supply to go on the offensive.  If so, the Chinese will be fine.  John is reinforcing Changsha (which should be tantamount to reinforcing defeat) and he's trying to work something through the same gap to get to his interior base, but he doesn't have much to work with short term.  Over at Nanning, the Chinese managed to open one hexside and will get another in a day or two, so that crisis seems averted.  The Chinese are in the process of shifting perhaps 1500 AV from the Sian front (quite and secure) to the Chungking-and-then-forward front.  Overall, the Chinese position seems pretty good and likely to improve short and medium term.

Oz:  Part of the KB remains at Port Headland.  Nothing ominious around Melbourne/Sydney right now.

DEI:  Batavia finally falls (and I lose a USN sub that had disbanded in port there without asking me).

India:  No ominous developments yet.  You know John is going to use Port Blair and the opening created in the Bay of Bengal when he took it to raid India.  I will soon have Hornet, Indomitable and Formidable together and willing to take on any imprudently small carrier force (John's more likely to come fairly heavy than light, but you never know).

Pacific:  Quiet.  I've changed prep of a number of RCT at Hawaii to various destinations - some in the Aluetians and some in the Marshalls.  All over the map, the Allies are gearing up to be ready in case there's a chance to take the offensive without threat of the KB.  Prep for a variety of places will be good starting in about one month.  Prep for the Aleutians and Cocos Island are already good, though I have no short term plans of moving either way.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 758
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 2:14:47 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		When I attack in China, I'm happy for equal losses of disabled squads, as I know Japan can bring enough supply to make them up quickly. I'm often ready again in another week with AV back to near the previous levels. The Chinese I've faced have not had the supply available to make up those disabled losses, so their AV goes continually down and their moral/fatigue keep going up.

Do you have enough supply to sustain these losses and keep rebuilding these frontline units?

_____________________________

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Post #: 759
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 2:42:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Right now, supply is mostly okay in China.  My units are in red some days, other days they draw supply fully.  I'd say two days out of four, most of my units are fully supplied.  Most of my base supply is low, of course. 

The problem for John is that he's had units engage in long series of attacks at poor odds, thus messing up many of his divisions, and many of these units are isolated or are drawing supply only through non-road hexsides.  So I don't think he's winning this war of attrition.  I think the Chinese are.  If he keeps it up, eventually he will weaken some troops enough that the Chinese may be able to break a seige here or there.  If that happens it may be like a snowball - because a success will free up units to move to the next vulernable point, and then the next, etc.  That's not guaranteed to happen, but if John doesn't change his ways it's likely. 

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 760
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 2:58:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

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Post #: 761
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 3:34:03 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for chiming in on the potentially charged political question, gents.  I was confident that you guys would handle it well, as you did, and I really did want your thoughts.  One of the historical topics I've covered most deeply in my years of research and writing has been the efforts of southerners who opposed secession.  They were in a tough position and suffered for their viewpoints.  Anyhow, thanks again for giving your thoughts.  Now I'll get back to the game.

In a considerate way, John brought up that I have just violated one of the House Rules.  I used one small B-17E squadron and one small B-17D squadron at Chungking to target two small IJA units moving across open terrain SE of Changsha.  My purpose was to slow down these units.  I had totally forgotten that there is the House Rule prohibiting use of 4EB against troops in the open.  John handled it well.  I'll notify him that I'll stop and that we can re-do the turn if he wishes to.

That's one reason I hate House Rules.  While the rule may have a good purpose (to prevent the Allies from using 50 4EB to destroy enemy troops in the open), my use was reasonable and for an entirely different purpose.  So, while I violated the rule, I wasn't violating the spirit of the rule.  Meanwhile, John uses massed 2EB against Chinese in open terrain to totally obliterate them.  So, he keeps the rule, but violates the spirit of the rule (IMO).  I say this only because in China the Allies have an extremely limited ability to offer CAP to troops outside of the few major cities that have supply.  But Japan is free to bring the entire airforce against the Chinese.  Oh well, I'm not going to broach this with John (at least not now, as doing so would seem to be retaliatory for his invoking - properly, I hasten to add - the House Rule).

Now, I have a new turn in the box, so it's time to run it and see what's going on.  :)



Not to mention that the Japanese player has a very large number of medium bombers that he can put over your ground units and the ability to produce many more whereas the Allied player have a very small pool of medium bombers at this stage of the war. This is as bad house rule as I have seen. Yes, Allied 4Es are a bit too effective in this sort of thing. But the aircraft that should be doing this work (fighter bombers) are totally useless for this purpose. And in any scen #2 really can't be used this way due to the number of Japanese fighters buzzing around. So basically the rule allows the Japanese player to smoke ground units in the open and the Allies can't. That puts a nice historical spin on things...


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Post #: 762
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 3:40:47 PM   
crsutton


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Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

When I attack in China, I'm happy for equal losses of disabled squads, as I know Japan can bring enough supply to make them up quickly. I'm often ready again in another week with AV back to near the previous levels. The Chinese I've faced have not had the supply available to make up those disabled losses, so their AV goes continually down and their moral/fatigue keep going up.



Do you have enough supply to sustain these losses and keep rebuilding these frontline units?


I agree. From my Allied experience in China I think that the proper Japanese play is just to grind away at the Chinese. Grinding eats enemy supply quickly. And low supply for the Chinese means no replacements and very low recovery rates. It may take a couple of years but eventually they will just crack. I have noticed that even my well supplied Chinese troops are very very slow to recover disruption in 1945. So, grind away.

I am sure that the Japanese have supply issues in China as well. But I can't imagine that they were are bad as my own Chinese supply problems were. John has dithered and needs to take out some more major supply centers though. Once you crack Sian, Changsha and Lanchow there simply is no supply for the Chinese and it then get easier.

Even flying supplies over the hump could not help me.

< Message edited by crsutton -- 2/23/2013 3:43:49 PM >

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Post #: 763
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 4:12:16 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		China is very very hard as the allies IMHO.

I´m not even sure its possible to hold on to it against an opponent that devotes some attention to it. The combination of low supply, Japanese air power and invulnerable "tank armies" makes it very hard. If you take a look at a few of the AARs many (most?) allied players have lost, or are about to loose China.

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Post #: 764
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 4:19:15 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

_____________________________


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Post #: 765
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 4:52:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Japanese air power is a problem.  If Japan doesn't have supply problems, that also complicates my situation.

But I do not intend to lose China - at least in the short or medium term, when it really matters to me.

In my game with PzH, he worked China hard, achieving a serious breakthrough around 4/20/42 - the same date we're at in this game.  PzH drove a hole into my MLR and had the oomph to exploit.  Sian was the first key city to fall, with Lanchow and the rest of north and northwest China following suit.  However, when the game ended in June '42, the Allies were still fighting hard and effectively.  I should also note that PzH seldom engaged in an attack that didn't make sense.

In this game, John has worked a hole in my MLR, but I don't think he has the oomph to exploit it.  He's also wearing out his own troops and getting them isolated and strung out.  As best I can tell, the Chinese have the ability to effectively counter for a long time to come.  There is even a chance the Chinese will eventually go on the offensive in a meaningful way.

That's as I see it.  Events will prove if I'm too optimistic or not realistic.

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Post #: 766
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 9:10:01 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

OTOH, the opponent in question may make a difference. CR has already deduced that John likes the "sexy" part of the game like naval action and shock attacks, but seems to pay less attention to building the infrastructure needed to support offensives. That suggests he may not have moved enough supply to China [as Greyjoy noted, the entire Empire is clamouring for supply]. It is also evident that he has not ensured continuous road/rail links to his assault units from his supply ports.
We'll wait and see ....

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Post #: 767
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2013 9:39:19 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

OTOH, the opponent in question may make a difference. CR has already deduced that John likes the "sexy" part of the game like naval action and shock attacks, but seems to pay less attention to building the infrastructure needed to support offensives. That suggests he may not have moved enough supply to China [as Greyjoy noted, the entire Empire is clamouring for supply]. It is also evident that he has not ensured continuous road/rail links to his assault units from his supply ports.
We'll wait and see ....


Agreed. It's also apparent that CR's opponent either doesn't appreciate or care about the impact of disruption, fatigue and morale on LCUs. Those repeated 1:2 or 1:3 attacks are terribly debilitating in the long run. Until they're 'rested off', it will be a problem.

Just looking at "how many divisions I have" at a certain point on the map is a very small part of the picture. I too wonder if he has or will do the needful to ensure a sustainable offense.

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Post #: 768
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2013 12:06:30 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.


Depends on what you're doing elsewhere. It shouldn't be a problem at all if you're making a defined push and know you'll need extra to replenish those disabled squads. A Japanese player may have t oplan to keep a surplus for this reason, but it definitely can be done easily.

Often I send a supply convoy of 30-50k to Shanghai from the HI just before an attack to get the units topped up, make sure all fields have good supply and provide for quick repair afterward.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Agreed. It's also apparent that CR's opponent either doesn't appreciate or care about the impact of disruption, fatigue and morale on LCUs. Those repeated 1:2 or 1:3 attacks are terribly debilitating in the long run. Until they're 'rested off', it will be a problem.

Just looking at "how many divisions I have" at a certain point on the map is a very small part of the picture. I too wonder if he has or will do the needful to ensure a sustainable offense.


+1

Patience is imperative in a Chinese ground campaign. I was shocked the first time I got a 1:2 with 1000+ disabled squads. I thought that army would never recover. Several weeks later I was ready to go again, moral up and fatigue down and AV only a few hundred below the first attack, but the Chinese hadn't recovered more than 100 squads.

I've never played with stacking limits, but from what I've seen in other games it seems even more important to take time, rotate out depleted units, and concentrate on definite objectives.

< Message edited by obvert -- 2/24/2013 12:12:33 AM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 769
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2013 12:43:14 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

China Situation:  The Japanese are reinforceing the interior base by air, bringing in most of an infantry regiment and some support units.  I am hoping that the best John can do is to bring enough supply to make the base defensible but that his units won't have enough supply to go on the offensive. 


Are you allowed to use 4E's here? Since the IJA troops are occupying the base, they're not in the open.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 770
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2013 12:43:39 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My Chinese army has suffered alot of disruption, but overall it's standing up well.  Fighting on good terrain is the main reason, of course.  Also, nearly every leader has been swapped out for better leaders.  And now many of my front line units are at or above 50 experience, with many more in the upper 40s.  The Chinese seem to be bringing in troops more efficiently than Japan, which is feeding them in piecemeal and often at less optimal locations.

My general feeling of optimism in China is predicated on my "assumption/hunch/belief" that an interior base depending on air supply can probably support defense, but not effective offensive operations.  If that assumption is wrong, I already have a major problem.

I really only have two concerns at this point:  whether the air war will wreak havoc on my units.  From what I've seen thus far, the effect isn't dramatic on units on good defensive terrain.  So this isn't a huge concern.

The last concern is knowing that John is feeding more divisions into the theater.  I can handle some, but at some point he may blow a hole in my defenses.  I think he's working on that in the Nanning to Liuchow sector, but he has so many units tied up elsewhere - throwing themselves away in costly attacks at or near Changsha - that he risks leaving parts of his line weak, or at least weak enough that I from time to time can withdraw a unit here and there to reinforce.

So I'm optimistic, but I'm dealing with some unknowns.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/24/2013 12:44:37 AM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 771
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2013 12:44:15 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
Are you allowed to use 4E's here? Since the IJA troops are occupying the base, they're not in the open.


Yes, but thus far they have been completely ineffective.

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 772
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2013 4:04:00 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		I would move a few (you decide how many) of your Light AA units with 36 x 40mm Bofor AA guns to Ledo and then march them into China along the mountains. The can reach up to 9000' and force John to keep some of his bombers higher or suffer losses.

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Post #: 773
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 2:04:50 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/17/42
 
China:  Japanese bombers blast the Chinese units contesting the interior IJ base, then IJA units evict them with heavy losses.  The Chinese suffer 200 squads destroyed.  There's no way the Chinese can maintain any presence in this hex, and thus no way to maintain control of the hexsides.  The only viable defense is to prevent/slow reinforcements from coming in and any meaningful breakout.  As to the former, the Japanese don't have anything coming through gap previously used.  In fact, the Japanese position in that area is tenuous and may erode.  The best hope for Japan short term is to bring in more units and try for a more robust breakthrough at Nanning.  Again, my optimism is centered on my "assumption" that Japan cannot adequately support an interior and isolated army in a way that would permit effective offensive operations.  I hope I'm right on that account.

India:  While keeping one eye open for a possible IJ move in Assam, Ceylon or India, the Allies are beginning to move forward.  My primary goal is to seize some of the easternmost jungle hexes in upper Burma, forcing Japan to use some clear terrain hexes in establishing it's MLR. Clear terrain will be vulnerable both to assault and aerial attack, so Japan's position in Burma will be more tenuous.  Towards that end, I may shift the Oz Division currently at Karachi forward, leaving the second Oz Divison (this one at Bombay) as theater reserve (and it's prepping for Cocos Island anyway). I like NYGiants suggestion about moving light AA forward.

Australia:  More enemy subs around Brisbane and Sydney, but nothing major underway.  32nd Div. at San Fran will move to LA and immediately embark for SWPac - probably Brisbane.

Pacific:  No news of note.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/25/2013 2:08:08 AM >

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 774
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 3:41:44 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Again, my optimism is centered on my "assumption" that Japan cannot adequately support an interior and isolated army in a way that would permit effective offensive operations.  I hope I'm right on that account.


You know Hankow is a sizeable port base, don't you? Many IJ players will have regular supply runs with light (xAKL) convoys shuttling supply directly into this base from downriver. It's a very efficient means of helping deliver supply to the interior to permit effective offensive operations.

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Post #: 775
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 3:11:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		4/18/42
 
Yeah, I'm aware of that.  What I'm referring to is the Japanese base that is inside the Allied lines with no means of drawing supply except by air.  If John can provide enough supply to allow serious offensive operations outside that hex, I have a much bigger problem.

China:  Waiting to see what happens in this regard.  Will John move out of the base and try offensive operations?  I'll post a screen shot later showing the current situation in China.  John doesn't have any short term prospects for causing problems elsewhere along the Chinese MLR.

India:  No sign of enemy moves forward from Port Blair.  A Brit brigade at Chittagong will move forward to Cox's Bazaar.  Cocos Island airfield goes to level three, which is a problem, though it took quite some time for John's engineers to work that.  I'm getting occasional SigInt about small IJ base forces at Cocos, but nothing about major infantry units.  This target remains on my radar for possbile action (if the KB should end up around the Coral Sea or the Pacific).

Australia:  Nothing significant happening.  Two reinforcement TFs are nearing Melbourne, carrying a combat engineer unit (prepping for Cocos), two base forces, and 158 Motorized Brigade.  Four American CVs at Melbourne to upgrade.

Pacific:  Quiet.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 776
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 4:18:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		The complex (and messy, when you see my attempt at map work) situation in China. Except for the "interior IJ base two hexes behind my MLR at Changsha, the Chinese look to be in good shape (the IJ unit on the RR is a mortar unit that's about to get evicted soundly).

Possibly you can discern from this map why my focus is on whether John can support offensive operations from the interior base solely by air supply. If he can't, the Chinese are in good shape and John may be facing more problems than I am. But if John can use that base to fund offensive operations, then I have a serious problem. I'm guessing he can't, because I don't think even the Americans would be able to do very much under the same circumstances in '44, using Dakotas to fly supply to a division or two behind enemy lines.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 777
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 4:34:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies are working on a plan to leave Japan with a potential critical weakness Japan's Upper Burma MLR. If the Allies succeed it may give rise to an opportunity to offer succor to China through the Lashio corridor.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 778
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 5:02:47 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If you can start creating problems in places like Burma - low cost, low risk operations, it will force John to pay attention. The more you can get him to dance to your tune, the better....he's a big fan of trying to lure you in to attacking where he wants you to - making a place like Burma more proactively-active might be a good move on your part (with keeping an eye on potential moves against India or Ceylon).

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 779
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/25/2013 10:36:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/19/42 and 4/20/42
 
A good week or so back, I let my AAR get a day off.  This report actually only covers a single day, April 20, but I need to add the second day to get rid of a sync bug of my own doing....

China:  No major changes in the key areas all around Changsha, but it looks like 18th IJA Div. is just a couple of days out of Nanning.  That unit will threaten my little outpost at Nanning, but I don't think it's a major threat to the overall security of my far right wing.

Burma:  No changes.  (A few posts up, NYGiants suggested marching light AA units from India to China - I'm wondering if he specifically limited it to light units - would heavy units eat up too much supply?)

Australia:  Nothing major happening.  Patrols out of Manado caught a second IJN carrier TF moving up toward Babeldoab.  This is helpful information.  It suggests that Australia is temporarily safe, same with India.  It may be that John could be upgrading.  Two USN CVs began a week-long upgrade today.  250 land-based fighters protect this base.

Pacific:  32nd USA Div. reaches LA tomorrow.

(in reply to paullus99)
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