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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/26/2016 4:46:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The SigInt report for 3/3/44 has a lot of useful information. Reading these reports sometimes offers insights into an opponents plans...and can suggest whether an Allied plan, currently in development, is properly oriented.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/26/2016 5:14:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		3/3/44

Third Ring: Gove falls to the Allies, bringing Operation Third Ring to a conclusion.

Third Ring was the operation to clear an LOC between the DEI and the Coral Sea. The major targets were Merauke, Horn Island, and Gove. Losses were negligible. The operation strung out, mainly because it was a lower priority than the others, so forces were committed when available.

Big Tent and Third Ring commenced with the landing at Satawal Island on November 9, 1943. So the two ops took nearly four months. In addition to the Third Ring targets, major Big Tent targets were Morotai, Sorong, Manokwari, Boela, and Ambon. There were many secondary (inc. Babar, Dobo, Saumlaki, Babo, Biak) and tertiary (dot hex) targets.

Operation Carousel was a spin-off of the other two, when KB remained stationed near the Solomons. Carousel is ongoing, but has thus far netted Watampone, Polapo, Makassar and Salajar Island.

As discussed in detail previously, the largest ship lost by the Allies over these four months, while penetrating deeply into Japan's heartland and fighting for months, was CLAA Richmond. Japanese losses were much heavier even though John showed a marked reluctance to engage, especially since mid December.

These operations succeeded in seizing bases in the enemy heartland, building them large, providing them with supply, and in attritioning the Kaigun.

But a key question going forward is whether John has a decent handle on what might happen next. Has he properly allocated resources or has he spent too much time misconstruing the map? At the moment, I feel pretty good about Fun House, mainly because I like what I'm seing on the map and in SigInt reports. We'll see what happens as Fun House begins to unfold over the next four or five weeks.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/27/2016 2:31:37 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/4/44

Fun House and Everything Else: Things continue to go smoothly across the map. There are flair-ups here and there, and little things cropping up, but the real thing is Fun House. The logistical work going on in the background is immense and going very well. A for instance: 6th Army HQ is 82% prepped; 6th American Division is 93% prepped; 6th Australian Division is 59% prepped.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/27/2016 4:49:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
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Burma: Suddenly IJA unit movement dots sprout here, there, everywhere. I think this is the beginning of the general withdrawal.

Fun House: Lots going on. Embarkation date of March 20 remains on schedule. Bristol-class DDs have started 2-day upgrades, but the carriers declined to join them even though the scheduled upgrades don't require a port size (level 0 suffices, Normanton is a level four). I'll just monitor this for a few days. I'd like them to upgrade, but it's not essential.

Marshalls: Still an enemy combat TF at Eniwetok.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/27/2016 10:26:49 PM   
Lokasenna


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Status: offline 		They won't upgrade at Normanton. Even though no shipyard is required, ports must still be big enough to upgrade the ship. It is based on the cube of port size compared to tonnage divided by 1000, I think. I forget the exact formula... but am not at all surprised that the CVs won't upgrade at a level 4 port.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/27/2016 10:28:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well cubing things, comparing and dividing is beyond my micromanagement tolerance. Augh!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/27/2016 11:01:45 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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Status: offline 		"...COMPARED to tonnage...."??

meaning?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/27/2016 11:30:43 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

"...COMPARED to tonnage...."??

meaning?

Meaning for a level 4 port the ship to be upgraded would have to displace 16,000 tons or less (Pt Size² > displacement tonnage ÷ 1000)

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 12/27/2016 11:39:33 PM >

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 1:27:48 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

Burma: Suddenly IJA unit movement dots sprout here, there, everywhere. I think this is the beginning of the general withdrawal.


Any predictions on when you'll have the Burma Road open again?

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 1:33:51 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It's not clear yet whether John's actually going to abandon Burma or whether he might turn and fight. I don't "need" the road open until the summer months, but I can make use of it any time prior thereto. So I'll push him but I won't make a big battle of it if he does fight back hard. But if he is beginning a withdrawal, events should gather momentum. Once I have an airfield or two in proximity to Rangoon, the jig is probably up for John in Burma. My guess is: two months (and that's just about perfect for my purposes).

Burma is tied closely to Peep Show, the op that will follow Fun House. To this point, I haven't fought in Burma because I prefer that John maintain a strong army as far forward as possible. But now things could speed up or slow down, depending on whether Fun House is successful. If it's successful beyond my expectations (like Big Tent), Peep Show could go as soon as May. But if things drag out it might be more like September.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/28/2016 1:37:41 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 2:47:04 AM   
bradfordkay

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

"...COMPARED to tonnage...."??

meaning?

Meaning for a level 4 port the ship to be upgraded would have to displace 16,000 tons or less (Pt Size² > displacement tonnage ÷ 1000)



So it is the SQUARE of the port size, not the CUBE, that is compared to the tonnage/1000?

This would explain why the Prince of Wales would not upgrade at my level 5 port in Perth.

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 4:28:03 AM   
BillBrown


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Status: offline 		From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 5:28:13 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.


Are you sure he meant the NS and tenders were in relation to ship upgrades and not repair?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 7:06:31 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.



Yep, this is it.

I just send bigger ships to bigger ports.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 7:06:47 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

From what I found it is port size cubed has to be larger than displacement tonnage / 100.

So a size 4 port will only handle a ship size of 6,400 tons.
Don Bowen did also indicate that tender ships and Naval Support would increase the ship size.


Are you sure he meant the NS and tenders were in relation to ship upgrades and not repair?


Yes, it was rather explicit, but he wouldn't say by how much.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 8:41:56 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/6/44

Thank you for the information about port size and ship upgrades. I'd give this the attention needed to know with certainty if I had to have the upgrades. I don't, and my carriers will go no further than Townsville (which is a level 7 port), so they'll either upgrade or not. It's not worth the fuel and time it would take to try a place like Sydney. Too much will happen too soon.

A promising day from Burma to the Marshalls. But, as always, it's the behind-the-scenes Fun House activity that really matters.

The map will speak to the events of the day.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 2:52:49 PM   
Lokasenna


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Status: offline 		Townsville can upgrade up to 34.3K tons without any naval support and the like, which may be able to do the Essexes depending on which displacement the game uses - design, actual, fully loaded, etc.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 4:18:27 PM   
bradfordkay

 

Posts: 8683
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From: Olympia, WA
Status: offline 		How long will your carriers be out of commission with this next update? That needs to be taken into account...

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 5:12:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The updates will take only 10 days, but it's not worth delaying Fun House to head to Sydney. Townsville maybe, but I haven't decided yet.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 5:17:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		3/7/44

The German army, having withdrawn for two months right out of France, finally turns on the enemy nipping at its heals....I think. If John is launching a counteroffensive, will it turn out like the Bulge did for Germany?

Carousel: John has committed 19th Division to reinforce Pare Pare, Celebes, and may have his eyes the Allied-held islands to the south. I don't care what happens here as long as it takes awhile. I don't want to lose the bases I've taken, but in a month, Celebes should be mostly irrelevant. I'll let John land as much as he wants as long as he wants.

Marshalls: I think he's reinforcing Roi-Namur, after just withdrawing from there. This may just be a case of denying it to me because he can (my force is week), but his exposing of two CAs and a CL for an op in the Marshalls is risky.

Burma: Things are rolling at the moment.

Fun House: On schedule.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 5:44:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If John has turned his army to attack, the question is whether he's chosen an effective strategy or a wasteful one. For those new to the game, here's a summary of what he could do that would hurt me.

It's difficult (but not impossible) for John to counterattack in a major way at this point in the game, at least against hardened Allied targets. So he should only target enemy territory in order to (1) draw valuable Allied assets into battle on terms advantageous to him; (2) slow down the Allied advance; and/or (3) destroy major Allied units if possible, knowing that Allied infantry took a blow in Sumatra in early 1943.

With regard to item one, Allied carriers, capital ships, and APA/AKA/AP/AK are about the only things that John can hit that might slow the Allied advance. He can't "control" whether I commit these assets by attacking me; he generally has to wait for me to commit them, then strike hard and efficiently.

With regard to item two, there are very few bases on the map that would slow me down at this point. I can make do without most bases, no matter how big or how important. Whether I hold all or part of Celebes, the Marshalls, New Caledonia, Ceylon, etc. really doesn't matter. The few bases that would slow me down: (a) Pearl Harbor (invulnerable); (b) Horn Island (very unlikely as it is strongly garrisoned and difficult for him to attack in strength), Normanton (ditto), and maybe (d) Midway.

With regard to item three, I do have the equivalent of nearly two divisions ashore on Celebes, but these units aren't part of Fun House. I don't want to see them destroyed, and I may act if necessary to defend them. John's main problem is that the Allied forces on Celebes are stout enough to hold out for quite some time. He's committed 19th Division forward in an offensive campaign at a late date. Does this mean he's adequately garrisoned all the key bases further back, in Java, Sumatra, Borneo, the Philippines, etc.? I don't think he has. I think Celebes could turn out to be Gove on a much grander scale. He detached two 16th Div. RCTs to defend that base while leaving Celebes largely undefended, ultimately costing him both. If he commits to Celebes on a large scale now, what happens if the Allies go deep and bases that might've been defended with 19th Div/A, 19th Div/B and 19th Div/C are open?

Let's see.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 12/28/2016 5:45:34 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 5:48:26 PM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		You can use preparation to cause disinformation to the enemy, but AFAIK you can only get the info about a unit on ships bound for destination XXXX if you actually load them and give the ship that destination. You can of course turn it around again or not unload the TF, but that seems a poor way of using a potent tank division.

My take on the 2nd Tank Division is that Batavia was a waypoint/fuelling stop and Broome is indeed the destination. He wants to keep Darwin but doesn't dare bring the TF closer than Broome because of your bombers, so he lands the Tank Division at Broome and overlands to Darwin.

John may be thinking he can pull off another Sumatra in this area, but times and OOBs have changed!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 5:51:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		You can do some pretty clever things using waypoints - set the destination (Broome) but have a waypoint at, say, Pare Pare. Then, when the TF arrives at Pare Pare, unload the unit there. Then you've provided disinformation. One of the keys to disinformation is that it must be credible to some extent. It is not credible for John to send 2nd Tank Div. to Broome. If he does, he's nuts.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 6:50:33 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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Status: offline 		That's exactly the sort of info I just disregard. It's either meaningless (what do you care if he's actually going to Broome?) or maskirovka.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 8:08:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
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Status: offline 		Some information is useless, but for reasons I won't go into, that information is meaningful.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 8:27:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/8/44

When information comes in bits and spurts, is contradictory or confusing, it can be difficult to "see through a glass darkly." By last turn, I was pretty sure that John was executing a "Bulge" style offensive. But John, being helpful, eliminated any uncertainty with this email message: "Convenient having a day at home when SOOOOOOO much is happening."

There is a lot happening: Burma, DEI, Marshalls, and Fun House. See map for exciting information and details about free shipping of Zamphir's Pan Flute Greatest Hits to the first person that accurately predicts what John is doing with 2nd Tank Division (see map for luscious clues).




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 10:03:27 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		If that Chinese incursion is the first time an Allied unit has entered Vietnam, John will get a message in his Op Report saying the Viet Minh have activated. Five or six VM units will arrive over the next several days. They are weak and inexperienced.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/28/2016 10:17:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Unless there's been a rule change, entering China in '44 doesn't trigger the Viet Min. I'm not sure it does in 1943 either.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/29/2016 12:03:30 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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Status: offline 		Correct, they will not arrive and there will be no message.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 12/29/2016 12:09:43 AM   
Flicker

 

Posts: 229
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Status: offline 		Section 8.3.5 Counter Invasion Forces states that "Allied entry of Indo-China by the Chinese" triggers reinforcements.

Tabiteuea is one of my favorite islands in the Gilberts - oops more later.

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