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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 7:21:38 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Turkey trots to water.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8581
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 8:50:30 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		I love the idea of Five Death Stars.

Somehow I think the Battle of Yavin would have ended slightly differently!

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(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 8582
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 11:29:01 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My opponent has gone pretty dark, both with his AAR an with the rate of turn production.

I sent the turn back to him nearly positive that he isn't springing KB this turn. That sureness is due partly to the map, what I see and don't see, what's likely and what isn't likely given the layout. But it's also due to John's body language. If he were committing KB, he'd have been all over this, telling me when he'd next be available, urging me to send the turn, etc.

Reading body language is an inexact science and susceptible to manipulation. My orders for the turn would've been the same whether I thought KB might be used or not, so in this case reading is just more for the purse fun of seeing if the reading is accurate.

The slowness of turn production that past 10 days is partly due to real life situations, but it's more than that. The situation is pretty tense, and I think John is being very careful with his orders. But it's more than that too. He's lost the panache and verve of the "That turn ROCKED" exuberance he showed two weeks ago. I think he's worried.

His email with the last turn: "See that you are back to your wandering, looking for an undefended base/hex.  Good luck and may the Force be with You!" This message is "fun," but not really coherent. He's guessing and uncertain and worried.

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 8583
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 11:36:04 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I woke up, no turn from John, and posted the previous post...but clicked on the wrong AAR and posted it in John's. I didn't realize it until I re-read it, then read the post above it (Bradford Kay's) and realized I was in the wrong AAR. That will worry John, and the time is especially unfortunate on top of my failure with political points last week. I'll send a note to John to make it clear Brad's is the only post I saw.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8584
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 1:50:20 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I woke up, no turn from John, and posted the previous post...but clicked on the wrong AAR and posted it in John's. I didn't realize it until I re-read it, then read the post above it (Bradford Kay's) and realized I was in the wrong AAR. That will worry John, and the time is especially unfortunate on top of my failure with political points last week. I'll send a note to John to make it clear Brad's is the only post I saw.

Oh-oh .... signs of old age starting to show themselves? I saw the last post in an AAR was Canoerebel and clicked on the orange button, only to end up in John's AAR. But then I enter the wrong AAR all the time (and immediately back out) because I now lack the concentration to read the titles carefully. Happens mostly when I am tired, but sometimes it is just "Old Timer's Disease".

EDIT: Do you know if John saw your post before you deleted it?

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 1/16/2017 1:51:00 PM >

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8585
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 2:00:28 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Reading body language is an inexact science and susceptible to manipulation. My orders for the turn would've been the same whether I thought KB might be used or not, so in this case reading is just more for the purse fun of seeing if the reading is accurate.




You mean like this???





Attachment (1)

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8586
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 2:03:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John wouldn't have seen it. The post was around 7 a.m. my time, 5 a.m. his time. I deleted it from his AAR immediately.


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 8587
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 3:31:48 PM   
bradfordkay

 

Posts: 8683
Joined: 3/24/2002
From: Olympia, WA
Status: offline 		Sorry to lead you astray, Dan. I've been learning a lot by reading both AARs.

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8588
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 5:09:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Wasn't your doing, Brad.

John replied graciously, so this didn't lead to any tension. I owe him one. I'll have to overlook any goading taunts he might unleash when the Japanese get their next victory or two (but that better not be during Fun House).

(in reply to bradfordkay)
Post #: 8589
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 5:15:59 PM   
1EyedJacks


Posts: 2244
Joined: 3/12/2006
From: The Eastern Sierras
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wasn't your doing, Brad.

John replied graciously, so this didn't lead to any tension. I owe him one. I'll have to overlook any goading taunts he might unleash when the Japanese get their next victory or two (but that better not be during Fun House).


<laughter>

It's good to see two players that keep it real and take the time to enjoy the game as well as the competition and their opponent. This is supposed to be fun :-).

_____________________________

TTFN,

Mike

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8590
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 5:45:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/3/44

Fun House: This operation has opened as smoothly, and with as much promise, as I could hope for. Talaud-eilanden fell and landings at the first two major targets (Dinagat and Surigao) go well and are unopposed.

Recon continues to show an unprepared defense, but things now get very confusing with the potential for all kinds of mischief, especially if John commits KB.

Tomorrow, five invasion forces detach from Death Star and the Herd to hit three major bases (including Legaspi, the focal point of Fun House) and two minor bases. Death Star and the Herd will take position a hex south of Legaspi. Deployment of combat TFs to cover some of these, but some rely solely on surprise for shock and awe purposes.

I'm doing something I generally don't do. Two CVEs are moving forward to provide CAP at the Legaspi beachhead. This TF will be overwhelmed if John loads up his airfields and/or sends in KB. I don't think he will - I rate the odds at 40%. But I'm concerned about how well bleedover CAP will perform from DS a hex to the south. Usually it does great, but I had some problems with this down at Gove (when BB Maryland kept getting hit, if you remember). So I'm trying this mainly to thwart the little raids (25 Helens, 15 Lilys, etc.) that John frequently sends out.

Tomorrow is a huge day with the potential for mayhem or for Fun House to take a big step forward.

Death Star Spin Offs: The other four DS armadas remain mostly in the shades or at Valhalla. Mainly, I'm trying to keep them from blundering into KB on the off chance that John anticipated the major invasion heading somewhere else. I think KB is going to be around Luzon, but no evidence of that yet.

Burma: Both sides still engaged in a campaign trying to determine whether John's MLR is viable or not. He may know, but I don't. Not yet.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2017 5:46:27 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8591
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 5:57:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I just noticed the rail line doesn't extend all the way to Legaspi. Any troops John has at adjacent Naga will make the beachhead before I can order an attack day after tomorrow, but he can't rail in major units from Manila over one day, which was my bigger concern. (SigInt has reported an amphibious tank unit at Legaspi and at least two IJA divisions inbound to Manila, in recent weeks.)

The Legaspi assault begins with combat engineers, tanks,and 6th US Infantry Division 100% prepped. 2nd Marine Div. is in reserve, but I want to hold it back until the port is taken, as the Marines aren't prepped and would suffer disruption. There is a contingency plan for if John holds the base too strongly, ranging from secondary landings to the north (or, in the event I truly blundered into a mighty fortress, I'd withdraw the invading troops and move to a vacant base close to the other landing sites).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8592
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 6:02:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Issuing orders for next turn was very complicated.

Each major invasion target (Catbalogan, Guiuan, and Legaspi) has a major amphibious TF. But there were other mongrel TFs that loaded fragments at Townsville. I had to sift through those and extract ships that belong to these targets. In most cases the mongrels were then attached to their parent TFs. All TFs had to be checked for proper orders (remain on station, unload, direct, absolute, sometimes "coastal") and all troop TFs not landing this turn had to be checked and re-checked for "Do Not Unload" (for the Herd will take station in coastal, non-base hex south of Legaspi; imagine if all those TFs started unloading - augh!). Then I had to go through the carriers and adjust plane settings. Mainly, I adjusted CAP percentages a bit. I thought I had to adjust ranges also, but they were all good.

There are probably 70 TFs and possibly 120 carrier squadrons, so checking and double-checking was tedious.

What are the odds that I overlooked something or misclicked?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8593
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 6:10:35 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Issuing orders for next turn was very complicated.

Each major invasion target (Catbalogan, Guiuan, and Legaspi) has a major amphibious TF. But there were other mongrel TFs that loaded fragments at Townsville. I had to sift through those and extract ships that belong to these targets. In most cases the mongrels were then attached to their parent TFs. All TFs had to be checked for proper orders (remain on station, unload, direct, absolute, sometimes "coastal") and all troop TFs not landing this turn had to be checked and re-checked for "Do Not Unload" (for the Herd will take station in coastal, non-base hex south of Legaspi; imagine if all those TFs started unloading - augh!). Then I had to go through the carriers and adjust plane settings. Mainly, I adjusted CAP percentages a bit. I thought I had to adjust ranges also, but they were all good.

There are probably 70 TFs and possibly 120 carrier squadrons, so checking and double-checking was tedious.

What are the odds that I overlooked something or misclicked?



I'll take that bet!!! ;]

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8594
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 7:16:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'll be leaving in a few minutes for a finance committee meeting at my church. There, they know that I am not a details guy; that I don't like spreadsheets or keeping track of infinite details; but that I can be useful at big picture kinds of things and ideas. So they would not be surprised, either, if I forgot a something this turn or mis-clicked.

I think John is running the turn now. I have butterflies in my stomach. I'll post as soon as I can, but given the meeting there may be a sizeable gap between John's post and mine.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 8595
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 8:15:55 PM   
Dirtnap86


Posts: 95
Joined: 10/3/2016
Status: offline 		However long it takes, we'll be here waiting warmly for it.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8596
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 8:41:47 PM   
Itdepends

 

Posts: 937
Joined: 12/12/2005
Status: offline 		Its a decent hike to Atimonan once you take those first to baess as well. Its a railway trail not a major road so it takes a while and will give John time to consolidate. What does he have at Atimonan?

(in reply to Dirtnap86)
Post #: 8597
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 9:06:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Altimonan is on my radar. Recon today showed one decent infantry unit, but that could be heading down the peninsula to Legaspi.

I do not anticipate Fun House turning into a Luzon blitzkrieg. As noted above, SigInt has suggested at least two divisions inbound to Manila; others will be coming now; and there may have been decent units there already. If it turns out Manila's wide open, great. But that's not what I'm expecting.

What I'm expecting is a major battle. My first priority is the Kaigun. My second is to foster an infantry-eating vortex. To do the latter, Death Star must remain overpowering - strong enough to making John's supply situation increasingly unmanageable.

So I'm not expecting to wrap up this campaign in six weeks. I'm thinking more like six months. That will be ideal as long as its enemy units that are getting fed into and eaten by the vortex, rather than mine. IE, this had better turn into the Celebes Mirror Show.


(in reply to Itdepends)
Post #: 8598
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 9:07:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John lost his power today when a vehicle hit a neighborhood telephone pole (the Ides of January have been afflicting the pace of our game for about ten days now). I think he'll get the turn done sometime this afternoon, but who knows. He may be pulling his hair out too.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8599
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 9:16:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Turkey trots to water.


It's a scary time to invoke that quote, considering how close I am to Leyte Gulf and the San Bernardino Strait.

John is probably beside himself with all the historical comparisons. That, alone, might prod him to send in CL/DD raiding forces through the multitude of channels.

What's keeping him in check - if he is still in check - is the lickings the Kaigun has taken in this game. Now the two torpedoes eaten by Chikuma a week ago loom larger.

Man, though, this turn makes me nervous. I'm pretty sure something loud is about to sound.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 8600
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 9:54:01 PM   
Dirtnap86


Posts: 95
Joined: 10/3/2016
Status: offline 		What all does John still have left as a credible surface fleet though? His cruiser forces I think were pretty chewed up as are his lighter elements iirc.

I know his carrier arm is still pretty strong, despite the losses he took thanks to the IJN friendliness of the mod. He can always supplement them with LBAS too.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8601
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 9:56:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		His navy has suffered and is stretched pretty thin, but it still packs a punch. He has half his BBs and CAs, is woefully short on CLs, and maybe half or more his destroyers. He'll have to pick and choose times and locations to fight more than he'd like. That will keep him in check, because he's probably having a tough time giving KB enough escorts.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2017 10:00:42 PM >

(in reply to Dirtnap86)
Post #: 8602
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 10:22:19 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Given the revelation of your major thrust for DS I, I am guessing that one of the other DSs is waiting for a clear shot at Marcus again, while another will head for Daito Shoto when the time is right. That would make the Philippine Sea pretty much yours. If he puts strong air into the Bonins (Iwo Jima + 2) your DS could sweep them off pretty fast.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8603
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 11:44:12 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

I am not a details guy


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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8604
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/16/2017 11:50:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It doesn't make sense, does it? But it's true! I notice things. I see things. But I don't do a good job with details. I don't spreadsheet. Clicking three-thousand times to create TFs, issue orders, load troops, set to this home base, set to follow that TF, aircraft to fly at this range, altitude, CAP percentage, etc. etc. etc. has been enervating in the extreme. I have been detailed to death.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 8605
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/17/2017 12:02:37 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I am not a details guy


AE is Dan's inner nerd fighting to express itself!

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 8606
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/17/2017 12:17:17 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It doesn't make sense, does it? But it's true! I notice things. I see things. But I don't do a good job with details. I don't spreadsheet. Clicking three-thousand times to create TFs, issue orders, load troops, set to this home base, set to follow that TF, aircraft to fly at this range, altitude, CAP percentage, etc. etc. etc. has been enervating in the extreme. I have been detailed to death.


It is the call of the AFB when the JFB whines about Turn 1. The Allied late game is simply massive in scope.

Wait until after VE Day . . .

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8607
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/17/2017 1:13:57 AM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It doesn't make sense, does it? But it's true! I notice things. I see things. But I don't do a good job with details. I don't spreadsheet. Clicking three-thousand times to create TFs, issue orders, load troops, set to this home base, set to follow that TF, aircraft to fly at this range, altitude, CAP percentage, etc. etc. etc. has been enervating in the extreme. I have been detailed to death.


You are a perfectionist :] The sheer amount of clicks required ensures that at least a small minority will be wrong. Hopefully insignificant errors.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8608
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/17/2017 2:57:29 AM   
bradfordkay

 

Posts: 8683
Joined: 3/24/2002
From: Olympia, WA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Turkey trots to water.


It's a scary time to invoke that quote, considering how close I am to Leyte Gulf and the San Bernardino Strait.

John is probably beside himself with all the historical comparisons. That, alone, might prod him to send in CL/DD raiding forces through the multitude of channels.

What's keeping him in check - if he is still in check - is the lickings the Kaigun has taken in this game. Now the two torpedoes eaten by Chikuma a week ago loom larger.

Man, though, this turn makes me nervous. I'm pretty sure something loud is about to sound.



How close??!! My friend, your naval forces are right there in that screen shot. The only difference is that you are landing on Samar and Luzon instead of the island of Leyte.

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 8609
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/17/2017 4:06:42 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No turn from John. The suspense is agonizing. He's been online on and off all afternoon and evening. But he hasn't sent any word about whether or when he's sending a turn or why he isn't. Nor is he posting in his AAR, which is odd.

If there had been a big battle in his favor, he'd be posting hot and heavy. If nothing had happened, he'd probably have sent the turn back by now. He's either agonizing over orders for the following turn or there's been developments that have created a disturbance in the Force.

But sitting here all evening waiting for a turn...Augh!

(in reply to bradfordkay)
Post #: 8610
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