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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 5:39:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think John's opsec violations are "I can't help myself" in nature - not Nemo kind of counterintelligence.

Houtje, I'm not sure about the supply situation in the jungle as I haven't fought in Burma since my campaign against Miller three or four years ago.  There have been many patches and changes since then.  Due to monsoon rules, I'm playing things cautiously right now (not moving into the Upper Burma plains to initiate an offensive).  I feel confident that if supply is a problem in these jungle hexes it would also pose a problem to John's troops should he try to dislodge me.  I know that both GreyJoy and Q-Ball had massed troops in these same jungle hexes, so I take that as an indication that it's possible to sustain an army.  Towards that end, I'm trying to build the airfields at the nearby bases, especially Imphal.

There's alot of stuff going on that's giving me some pretty good leads as to what John's thinking right now.  This comes from his emails, as Bullwinkle notes, SigInt and force use and disposition.  Thus, right now, I know these things:

1)  John is reinforcing Burma and paying attention, though I think he's misinterpreted the situation completely.  He's going to pay for it in 1942.

2)  John is giving alot of attention to the DEI - lots of ships moving around including visits to Cocos Island and reinforcements going to Padang, Sabang, etc.  He'll obviously worry about the Australians moving up the west coast (which they will, by land to take Carnavon).  It should be relatively easy to keep John's attention in this theater.

3)  I'm confident he isn't moving on Perth region.  He's run a poorly devised feint that wasn't credible for reasons I can give in detail later, should anyone wish.

4)  I am pretty sure he's moving into the New Caledonia region.  Again, there are lots of small signs, which I interpret as indicating "this is the real thing."

5)  Currently there isn't any indication of attention in the Pacific island groups.  This will change - after he fills in his weaknesses in the DEI and the Coral Sea regions he'll begin to worry about vulernabilities in the Pacific.  He'll be able to attend to these soon enough that I won't be able to take advantage of them (except perhaps the Gilberts).

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 901
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 6:18:01 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If he's moving in the direction of New Caledonia, its got to be an attempt to "bring you to battle" by threatening something he thinks you'll have no choice but to defend - but an area of the map is only as important as you think it will be - if you don't care, then he's off wasting a bunch of resources that would be better utilized somewhere else.

From John's game with Andy (and others) I get the sense that he is sometimes in awe of his own strategic genius & expects that allied players will simply walk right into the traps that he has prepared.

I don't expect that you'll make the same mistake - since your tendency to solve problems with a "hammer" and not a scalpel....

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 902
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 6:41:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I've allowed his combat and bombardment TFs to move around Luganville and Efate without the slightest opposition.  I'm hoping that might give him a false sense of security.  So I've moved some LBA to Brisbane where it can make the jump to Noumea.  I'm also positioning my carriers so that their aircraft can make the hop - but I'm keeping them well behind the line of picket ships and patrol plane search arcs so that I don't stumble into the KB.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 903
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 6:44:04 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline 		I think John is simply an exuberant fellow who enjoys playing the game. He's not giving away free OpSec as much as he is attempting to elicite similar responses from CR. After all, sharing in a good time is more fun than going it alone.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 904
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 7:54:49 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

3)  I'm confident he isn't moving on Perth region.  He's run a poorly devised feint that wasn't credible for reasons I can give in detail later, should anyone wish.


Hell, yes! Those things are great AAR material!

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Post #: 905
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 8:02:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		When John is really coming, he makes sustained and well-thought-out use of his subs, bombardment TFs and bombing raids to suppress the target and to watch his flanks.  When sub use is spradic, he doesn't bombard important coastal hexes, and his bombing raids are sporadic or small, he isn't coming in all probability.

In the Perth theater, he's used recon, para assaults on dot hexes, a small army moving overland, and small TFs on the periphery of my patrol arcs to suggest interest in the theater.  But the air campaign has been tepid and there have been few if any combat ships or subs in theater.

That's in sharp contrast to what he did before coming for Port Blair and what he's currently doing in the Luganville/Efate area.

I beefed up Perth theater defenses in March, but since then nearly all reinforcements have gone to the Rockhampton to Brisbane line.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/12/2013 8:03:35 PM >

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Post #: 906
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 8:14:17 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Thanks!

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Post #: 907
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 8:43:55 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

1) John is reinforcing Burma and paying attention, though I think he's misinterpreted the situation completely. He's going to pay for it in 1942.


Did you mean 1943, or should we watch for fireworks in November and December?

_____________________________

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Post #: 908
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 9:18:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Burma will be very active in 1942.

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 909
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 10:13:54 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

1) John is reinforcing Burma and paying attention, though I think he's misinterpreted the situation completely. He's going to pay for it in 1942.


Did you mean 1943, or should we watch for fireworks in November and December?


It is very possible given this postition for the 2E LBA to start the showoff with a bang as soon as the IJA arrive for tea ... CR is doing an excellent job of seizing the strategic jungle hexes which means he will locate and target units for at least 4 turns possibly 8 (each bombing raid causes the target unit to go into combat mode) in the open. If John had fun in China with 2E's .. CR will end this game in Burma with 2E's ..

I can say from experience this position is incredibly dangerious for the IJA ... I sense that CR is going to let John under great duress march into his fortified jungle hexes and pin down 3X in numbers and then maneuver to cut these forces to pieces ..

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 910
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/12/2013 10:55:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The prospects in Burma are indeed good, but I'm not as optimistic as Crackaces.  I think Burma might be the Guadalancal of this game.  If so, didn't someone say, "This isn't the end.  It isn't even the beginning of the end.  But it is the end of the beginning."  That's how I feel about Burma if it turns out as I envision.

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Post #: 911
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 12:18:29 AM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The prospects in Burma are indeed good, but I'm not as optimistic as Crackaces.  I think Burma might be the Guadalancal of this game.  If so, didn't someone say, "This isn't the end.  It isn't even the beginning of the end.  But it is the end of the beginning."  That's how I feel about Burma if it turns out as I envision.


The map below is the last experience in which I speak from .. This game had Bangkok falling before Jan 1943 .. and CR is starting from a better position in many respects Thus my very enthusiastic and optimsitic outlook as I see this unfold ...




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 912
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 12:36:23 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I think Burma might be the Guadalancal of this game.
Well mostly yes. The navy's will not beat each other to a pulp. The air attrition might be similar. The difference is he will not always be fighting 800 miles away at your airfields and always losing pilots. Cuts both ways here and his plane and pilot production is much higher than IRL. He has an equal chance of grinding you down and his land power has more road and rail. Still, the larger point is taken. It's time to grapple and you have more land troops coming . Waht's the end game? Supply to China or pushing south?

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 913
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 1:03:38 AM   
Crackaces


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quote:

Well mostly yes. The navy's will not beat each other to a pulp


It is quite possible to beat the IJN to a pulp with B25's at LowNav as they desperately bombard Molumein and prevent landings at Ramree Island, or points along Maylay as things progress .like Tavoy .. and The Allies will have to eventually seize Gerogetown beacuse this is the only way to get supply to Bangkok .. . [ look at the railine ] This key objecitves cause forces to clash ..

But I would agree it is nothing like the exchanges I have seen in AAR's around the Solomon's and the DEI ..

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 914
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 1:15:31 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there really a gay bar in Laguna called Lavender Mountain?  

Berry College in Rome is the largest college/university (acreage) in the world, with 26,000 acres.  The campus includes most of Lavender Mountain, a long ridge that's roughly 1,300 feet in elevation (or about 700 feet above the surrounding area).  I mountain bike, hike, and run (very, very slowly) on the mountain quite often - Last week I did three short runs, one medium bike ride, and one hike to eat lunch on a rock and read a chapter of Costello's "The Pacific War."  I jokingly refer to the mountain as my "adjunct office."


Sadly, as far as I know, I made that up an there is no gay bar named "Lavender Mountain"..but it would be a great name... just a from a marketing standpoint.

I am impressed you do a 700 ft. vertical climb at lunch.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 915
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 1:39:05 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		CR, I join in commending your Burma move. It would appear this should become a standard Allied tactic, especially in stacking limits games.

_____________________________


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Post #: 916
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 1:19:18 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		A lot of emphasis is being placed on Central Burma, and the importance of the extended jungle hexes to the NW of Mandalay, Shwebo and Magwe. While this is standard IJA defensive territory, it is not the only place to hold back the Allies in Burma. In fact, having played through this once now, I don't think the central Magwe-Shwebo area can be held once Allied 4Es get going in 43-44.

Below is a map of another set of defensive lines that offer great defensive territory, inside lines in most spots, and close support from what could be at least three major air bases and logistical centers on rail lines. With stacking limits, this territory could be very hard to break through. The solid white shows an outer, or first line, while the dotted an inner or secondary line. This also offers some defensive positions with river crossings in critical areas.

I think CR's positioning has really put John into a tight spot where he will be forced to react in some way, but this by no means makes Burma undefendable, if you consider the most important area of Burma to be the South. I certainly wouldn't want to have to shock over a river in a stacking limits game into +2 territory where units had dug in with 2-3 forts. This more condensed line would also give the defender a good chance to rotate troops in and out.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 917
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 2:25:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 918
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 2:39:29 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.


Well, I won't key him into my thinking, as I'm curious to see what he does himself and how this plays out.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 919
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 2:52:52 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

I don't think the central Magwe-Shwebo area can be held once Allied 4Es get going in 43-44


That is not as much a problem in this game as CR is home ruled from striking units in open terrain with 4E's Although I sense that 4E's will be instrumental in supressing airfields ...

The line you propose only happends IMHO if the IJ do not get their nose snapped off trying to attack China or going North. I sense that your proposed strategy "knows" that the India jungle line is lost, and thus no destruction of 'Army Group Center" in the open terrain. John likes to keep the offensive initiative... but we can assume for a moment that he suddenly has some notion to build such a defensive line during IJ's expansion phase ..

Ok John and the IJA start a defense line anchored on Prome. running north of Toungoo and anchored on Taung Gvi. Then as you state Prome becomes very very important. Once Prome falls Toungoo and the rail network are next. There are also in my opinion two other really key hexes in that line ... the hex north northwest of Toungoo has a stacking limit of 70,000 and the one North along the backroad is 55,000. Those are vulnerabale spots in the line you propose. I used 4E's but I would propose 2E's/DB's and US armor can smash that hex. [US Armor == good concentration of firepower, which is very meaningful in this game I propose more meaningful than AV in this instance] and stacking ratios] US Marine Divisions are a close second in concentrated firepower and AV to stacking ratios ..


Please see my first PBEM: game: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2874485&mpage=38&key= Although this game involved trapping 4K plus AV north of Taung Gvi when the line collapsed .. Your line proposes that the IJ does not get trapped ...

One thought about the IJ rotating units. A sustained interdiction campaign means that units are moving 1/2 speed and are constantly disrupted. Add Malaria and IJ units become quite stressed. The stress does not in my limited experince keep up with the potential attrition rate if CR uses US units and airpower. This front unlike any other front in my opinion the Allies can get a full concentration of airpower on selected targets. Because of malaria == disruption -> disabled -> destroyed.

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 920
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 3:07:00 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.


Well, I won't key him into my thinking, as I'm curious to see what he does himself and how this plays out.


In all my excitement of watching Burma develop [I am quite partial to Burma ] I am thinking that CR is pulling off a masterful maskirovka sucking in the IJ's forces into an area easily stalemated if the Allies so desire .. Much like how in chess one can pin a piece from moving because it exposes a more vaulable piece behind ..... then the Allies begin to dismantle where the IJ are not ...

Then again . John is quite agressive .. I am not sure as CR predicts that he can build a defensive line and stalemate .... thus Plan 'A' -- Destruction of Army Group Center ..

It is fun to watch this play out ..

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 921
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 3:38:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I came across this newspaper article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution last week (March 5 issue). I read the first paragraph, found it unusual and humorous, and started reading the story aloud to my family. I didn't get very far before laughter and tears interfered with my reading....




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 922
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 6:39:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Great PBEM Fantasy:  Sometimes I'll send a turn to my opponent expecting a major carrier or combat TF battle or a huge air raid against a particularly juicy and vulnerable enemy TF to take place.  Sometimes, my opponent doesn't send the turn back within the expected or ordinary-pace-of-turnaround time.  When that drags on, I begin to wonder if the results of the turn were so devastating that my opponent can't bring himself to finish the next turn (as I've had trouble doing myself when on the losing end of a major clash).  As more time passes, the fantasy becomes even stronger.  Finally, the turn arrives....and there was no action at all.  Not once - not a single time! - has the fantasy proved true.  It's always a real life matter that kept my opponent away for an extended period.

John hasn't flipped a turn since yesterday morning. That's very rare for him, but in this case I'm not getting my hopes up, because there isn't any pending combat anywhere on the map.  But I do know this:  Nothing bad happened to the Allies, because if it had wild horses, strong men, and the full weight of the law wouldn't keep John from posting in his AAR.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 923
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 7:08:45 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		That monkey story sounds like a Frat prank.

If somebody pulled that in 2013 they would need your services when the felony animal cruelty charge came down.

Also a good idea for a sci fi story when a real race of Aliens decide to camouflage themselves as shaved monkeys to get their little simian paws on the nuclear weapons keys.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 924
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 7:32:05 PM   
Houtje

 

Posts: 172
Joined: 6/19/2006
From: Netherlands
Status: offline 		Apparently, the poor thing is still on display:

http://www.alien-earth.org/ufos/news.php?news=1962

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Post #: 925
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 10:21:21 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Poor monkey. Obvert, you are spot on about where to defend Burma. See PzB vs Andy Mac and others.

However, I think GreyJoy demonstrated the ability to have a first MLR farther north, especially in stacking limits games. What CR has done here is turn that move on its head and effectively force John back to your line. He has done this without firing a shot and in a manner I'm not sure the IJA could counter even if John knew what was in the offing. In other words, GreyJoy found a solution to the problem of the undefendable Irrawaddy plains, CR's move counters that and puts us back in a situation where the Commonwealth can do much better than the historical advances in Burma.

_____________________________


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Post #: 926
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 10:25:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The key to countering this early '42 Burma strategy by the Allies is for Japan to retain the option of invading NE India.  If the Allies aren't careful, they can get a huge army isolated.  In most games the Allies have to be very careful about defending too far forward in early '42.  In this game, I knew I was okay (or, at least I THINK I am okay) due to a number of important factors including John's debacle at Singapore and the fact that I knew where so many of his divisions were.

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 927
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 10:32:46 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.


Yeah, once the Allies gain some strength in Burma Obvert's defensive line makes sense. However, I think that ultimately the Japanese player should be looking at a timely evacuation of Burma. After the Allies get sufficient amphibious assets, it is just too easily flanked. It begins to get very easy to trap the who lot of them north of Rangoon.

Personally, I would apply just a enough pressure in Burma in the hopes that the Japanese player did not evacuate thinking he is doing just fine. Then I take Pegu or Moulmein and he is totally bagged. But it is really mid 43 before the Allies can pull this one off.


< Message edited by crsutton -- 3/13/2013 10:37:29 PM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 928
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 10:36:15 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

...effectively force John back to your line.


John still has ample opportunity to attempt to attack India/ try and establish an MLR on the Irrawaddy Valley and experience a thrashing ... before settling back on the Prome --Toungoo -- Taung Gvi line ... Also as I expressed before there are two very vulnerable hexes on that line taking 4K plus AV to defend with any vigor .. that can be breached with an investement of armor that CR has promised is yet to come ...

Just to say .. British planners did not think Operation Extended Captial was possible until the IJA showed that an Army could be sustained in the Jungles east of Kaylemyo .. then Slim started a bit late into the Irrawaddy Valley by that same "impossible" route .. Mountbatten's foray toward Akyab costs time, lives, and a lot of resources that if directed inland could have changed things a bit .. but alas ...

I am still in the back of my mind anticipating a 'GreyJoy' move once John invests enough to save Burma .. maybe not the Kuril Islands but ...

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 929
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/13/2013 11:32:19 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

I would apply just a enough pressure in Burma in the hopes that the Japanese player did not evacuate thinking he is doing just fine. Then I take Pegu or Moulmein and he is totally bagged. But it is really mid 43 before the Allies can pull this one off.


Please look at post #911 .. I posted a map of my last game .. On Jan 43 and Bangkok & Ubon is well under controll ... happening just as you described ...

_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 930
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