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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 1:37:04 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

They're good on Okinawa and PI, some of the islands. Or just disband them to save supply.


Heretic! Infidel!

Your true colors are showing! You are no JFB!!!!

Disband an AA unit! Never! Ever!

All true JFB's loves these guns!




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Post #: 9601
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 4:17:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John is way more active on his AAR than he has been in recent weeks. I'm looking forward to running the next turn. I'll be looking for signs that KB and Mini KB are on course to rendezvous and that John is finally ready to commit his carriers.

Since I see through the glass darkly, all this may be something else entirely.

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Post #: 9602
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 5:38:33 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:



John is way more active on his AAR than he has been in recent weeks. I'm looking forward to running the next turn. I'll be looking for signs that KB and Mini KB are on course to rendezvous and that John is finally ready to commit his carriers.

Since I see through the glass darkly, all this may be something else entirely.



Not another drill?!





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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/24/2017 9:09:55 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 6:27:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/12/44

Fun House: It's looking more and more like John is vectoring his carrier aggressively. See map for details. (Later today I'll post a map with info regarding the day's actions centered on ground and air forces.)




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Post #: 9604
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 6:49:51 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Can you go into position with your CVs to take advantage of your LBA fighters in the Central PI?

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Post #: 9605
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 7:03:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		KB may be closer to the Legaspi fields than Death Star is...and Death Star will be shepherding some slower ships (unless I elect to leave them behind).

I have some airfields on the west side - Beaufort, Puerto Princesa and Taytay are level two fields; Balabac Island is level three. These have enough supply to handle some fighter squadrons, but not enough to handle massive bomber missions beyond perhaps an SBD raid or two. But we'd be about even in terms of contributing LBA in that area.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/24/2017 7:04:14 PM >

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Post #: 9606
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 7:10:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Looking at the map, I'd think John would keep KB well out to sea if he came down the east side of the PI. He'd be wary of the big Allied airfields and the possibility I might send out combat ships to disrupt his TFs. But it will take him considerably longer to make a rendezvous if he comes around the west side of the PI, I think. In that event, Death Star might have a window to return to Legaspi...or prevent KB and Mini KB from rendezvousing.

If John truly wants to accomplish a rendezvous, the best way for him to do so is to act very boldly, right now. He'd need to take a chance and send KB down the east size, perhaps at flank speed. And he'd need to send Mini KB strongly NE, perhaps also at flank speed. I think KB and Mini KB would then end up fairly close to different sides of Mindanao, but his ships would be fatigued, and he'd be worried about Mini KB facing some exposure to attack in detail (he'd rate it unlikely I'd send DS ENE at flank speed, but he wouldn't be sure).

Lots to think about.

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Post #: 9607
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 10:22:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Trying to read tea leaves.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 11:09:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The word apart from KB Mania




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/24/2017 11:44:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Kind of reminds me of the time the Japanese pulled a Jeb Stuart with the baby KB before.

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Post #: 9610
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/25/2017 3:57:58 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A simple turn in the middle of 1944, involving hundreds of decisions and perhaps thousands of clicks.

Which way will John's carriers most likely steam?
Adjust search patrols.
Adjust sub patrols.
Should LBA focus on strike potential or base/base-shipping defense?
Move fighters around to provide some local defense around the Sulu Sea region.
Where should Death Star go?
Which ships should follow?
Which ships should detach and where should they go and how will those TFs be configured to follow?
What should be the ranges for carrier strike aircraft and fighters?
Adjust ranges accordingly.
Fiddle with SBD search percentages and TBF ASW percentages.
Which bases should be reconned?
Adjust recon squadrons accordingly.
Should I switch focus of 4EB from Manila to Mindanao airfields for suppression purposes, in the event KB does come this way?
If so, adjust bomber targets.
Add replacement pilots where necessary.
How are ground units doing?
Change commanders for those in harm's way.
Do any ground units need to move up the Luzon peninsula?
Change to strat mode to get them moving.
Okay, what am I forgetting? I don't know, but I'm frazzled, so let's move to the next important theater and go through many new permutations...
...in Thailand....
...in the DEI...
...in the Coral Sea...
...in SoPac....
...in CenPac....
What reinforcements have arrived and where should they go?
...and on and on and on.

Sure is fun!

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 9611
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/25/2017 4:33:20 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I offer my best guesses (or analysis), to act as a yard stick to measure by tomorrow.




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Post #: 9612
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/25/2017 8:06:57 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		.....




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Post #: 9613
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/25/2017 8:50:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/13/44

Busy day, but no sign of pending carrier battle. All that analysis fer nothin'.

I feel most like the Confederate private writing a letter home and suddenly ending it, "We're being drummed into line. Expect a big battle momentarily." And it's always just a false alarm...until it isn't.






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Post #: 9614
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2017 1:04:20 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'll share now a major part of the game that I haven't discussed previously.

As Fun House unfolded in early April, a strong reinforcement armada took station east of Marcus Island. I was nearly certain that John would react to Fun House strongly, commit KB, and that a channel would open to bring in the reinforcements. He did commit KB briefly, but on a raid against the DEI. As that was happening, my ships moved into position well to the east of Marcus. But KB never again sortied or revealed itself, though I had some indications that it was posted around Pagan. So the armada sat...and sat...and sat. For six weeks it sat.

Finally, in mid-May, I made the hard (for me) decision to pull the TFs back and send them the long way around, through the Coral Sea. They were joined in transit by lots more ships coming in from Pearl and elsewhere in the Pacific. The journey took nearly a month. The Mini Death Star took station at Brisbane to await all those TFs. Now the armada is moving north, schedule to leave Townsville tonight. (And, all the while, I figured KB would show up somewhere far away, so that I'd kick myself for not maintaining position near Marcus; but that never happened.)

The successful passage of this armada into the DEI to unite with Death Star is the most critical operation now. There is a chance KB will pounce or that John will orchestrate a KB/Mini KB merger + pounce.

He cannot allow this junction to take place. The supply and fuel will allow offensive operations to continue indefinitely; the troops will permit powerful new offensive operations; the combat ships will replace some damaged during hard campaigning; and the carriers will boost DS numbers way beyond what's been seen to date.

This transit will be of immense importance; not as sexy as a big battle, but more important.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/26/2017 1:06:04 AM >

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Post #: 9615
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2017 4:04:00 AM   
Reg


Posts: 2787
Joined: 5/26/2000
From: NSW, Australia
Status: offline
It's posts like this that make following this AAR so entertaining and informative. (The Why as well as the What..)_.

Thank you for all your efforts in indulging us.



< Message edited by Reg -- 3/26/2017 4:12:40 AM >

_____________________________

Cheers,
Reg.

(One day I will learn to spell - or check before posting....)
Uh oh, Firefox has a spell checker!! What excuse can I use now!!!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9616
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2017 9:31:58 AM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Agree with Reg. Your AAR, and others, is what keeps me on the pages. Thank you

(in reply to Reg)
Post #: 9617
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2017 2:54:47 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Once you've combined your carrier forces, perhaps it will be time to do some hunting?

There is no reason to let John continue to believe he can split his flat tops in the face of your overwhelming superiority.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 9618
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 12:07:31 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/14/44

A very busy map with lots of good things happening today. See map for details.




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Post #: 9619
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 12:17:22 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		You talk about the Cooktown area and angst for the miniDS, but for the life of me I am having a hard time following this. I don't think I have seen a picture of the area in a dog's age. Could you show one, so I can have some angst too?

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Post #: 9620
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 12:36:29 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's the kind of question that sets of warning bells!




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Post #: 9621
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 12:40:33 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		He's actually going to contest Miri? He's weeks past the point where he should be committing more troops in that area....oh well, if you can make him bleed for this stupid mistake (if that's what he's doing), all the better.

Any ships you kill will be less you have to deal with around the HI.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9622
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 10:11:45 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I've had a really hard time deciding what to do with MDS as it approaches Horn Island. Next turn really seems to be the one of maximum exposure, as the TFs will near Portland Roads. John's been aware of what's going on, I think, and he's shows an elevated interest in this area for weeks (even as I typed that, I think I was coming to a decision).

On the one hand, I don't see anything out there; my carrier coverage is pretty stout, with 600+ aircraft. That can't take one KB one on one, in all likelihood. KB possibly has 1,000 to 1,250 aircraft. I have the benefit of nearby airbases supplementing with LRCAP. But John has the benefit of moderate range big airfields on New Guinea that could load up with all kinds of crap, including kamis.

Most of my TFs are at Cooktown or just to the SE. John might think they're all congregating there, so that the sudden push to Portland Roads catches him leaning a bit the other way...or not.

John is out of town tomorrow through Saturday, and I can just imagine losing a big carrier battle today and then having the evil taste in my mouth for the next five or six days. Yuck!

So I think I'm leaning towards standing down rather than forcing the passage; standing down to see if anything develops and to consider sending full Death Star this way to rendezvous.

But I haven't actually made the decision yet.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 9623
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 1:05:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Decision made, orders entered, turn sent to John.

Mini Death Star and the Herd will report to Cooktown, where 340 land-based fighters will provide protection, along with the full compliment of CVE fighters and the 1/2 of the CVL fighters (CV fighters moved to the airfield). I think that'll be roughly 600 to 700 fighters providing cover. That's not airtight, but it'll take a lot for enemy strike aircraft to penetrate. (Mini KB and it's 250 aircraft is two thousand miles away, so doesn't factor into the equation).

John's had a long time to think about this and set up an ambush. I want to more carefully configure my detection assets and then proceed a bit more carefully. It doesn't make a big difference whether MDS and the Herd arrive in a week or two or three...as long as they arrive safely.

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Post #: 9624
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 1:23:08 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline
quote:

It doesn't make a big difference whether MDS and the Herd arrive in a week or two or three...as long as they arrive safely.


This makes a lot of sense. You're way ahead of the historical pace, at least in the PI area, so there is no need for a panicked rush to merge your forces together.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9625
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/27/2017 3:20:48 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Thanks for the picture. I had no clue Japan still had Port Moresby and area.




(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 9626
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/28/2017 12:15:53 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/15/44

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone.




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Post #: 9627
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/28/2017 3:35:19 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Meaningful SigInt. I think it supports a notion that John will fight for Miri, and that he might bring his carriers in for support. I might not want Miri as badly as he does at the moment (I'm leaning forward, not back), but let's see how this develops. I have subs, aircraft, ships, and southern Luzon is a fortress.




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Post #: 9628
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/28/2017 3:44:40 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/15/44

John may have decided that Borneo is worth fighting for. Ordinarily, I'd be all in....and I will put up a fight...but the future lies forward.

The big reinforcement/supply TFs will be moving through the Torres Strait day after tomorrow. In six or eight days it could be in position to move in the Philippines (after having picked up many more reinforcements in the DEI). That is the future. That is what I have to watch out for above all other things. But if I can mess with John efficiently over Borneo, all the better.




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Post #: 9629
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/28/2017 3:48:59 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John is leaving on a much-needed family spring break trip to New York City tomorrow. He's had a tough start to the year with lots of funky things going on, including some bodily aches and pains. He's looking forward to walking the streets of New York with his family. He isn't aware that I've arranged for John Dilworth to ambush him near Trinity Church.

He'll be back in town this weekend, and we'll resume the war Sunday or thereabouts.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/28/2017 3:50:10 AM >

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Post #: 9630
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