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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/8/2017 8:00:37 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
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From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Ah Calvinball

Up there with the far side

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/8/2017 8:20:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Enemy combat ships are at Manado. I think John is considering sending Mini KB from Balikpapan into the Pacific.

In a perfect world without competing interests, I'd send Death Star southeast to at least sniff out opportunities. But the greater opportunity lies to the north, where Peep Show beachheads beckon (Oh, purple prose!) and there may be another carrier TF. At this point, I'm committed to Peep Show. I've passed the point of departure.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/8/2017 8:27:18 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Good for you - at the end of the day, John can run his ships around all he wants, but if he's not distracting the juggernaut from its goal, it's just window dressing.

Question - if he decides to "run the gauntlet, can you throw a bunch of planes at him from your DEI airbases?

< Message edited by paullus99 -- 5/8/2017 8:28:09 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/8/2017 9:01:13 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With SoPac KB confirmed far away, Peep Show will commence as soon as the amphibious ships arrive at Manila and can load. Embarkation date might be four or five days away.

That means my carriers won't upgrade, at least in the near term.

The form and extent of Peep Show is dependent on several variables that I won't know with certainty until the TFs get underway. I don't want to tip my hand. But suffice to say, there is a Blitzkrieg version and a West Front 1914 version. The latter invokes sustained air operations to soften up the targets ahead of amphibious assaults. The former involves moving in strength on vulnerable targets ASAP.

John's had enough time to figure things out, though SigInt still whispers the things I wish to hear. The answers will come in about five or six days.


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Post #: 10324
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/8/2017 10:00:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99
...Question - if he decides to "run the gauntlet, can you throw a bunch of planes at him from your DEI airbases?


The biggest threat a rampaging Mini KB (or Mini KB combined with SoPac KB) would be clearing out my ships and then bombarding my bases to reduce critical supply stores.

To guard against that, I have big airfields and lots of strike aircraft....but only one small combat TF to protect them.

I'm repositioning many subs from the Pacific into the DEI, and I'll divert at least one Death Star DD TF down to the DEI.

There's no real concern about actual enemy invasions taking one of my big supply depots, because the three bases have strong garrisons prepping for future action (IE, not twiddling their thumbs).

The threat of a rampaging KB is a real one but the alternative is to stand down Peep Show, send Death Star down south to chase away TFs that don't want to be caught...and to then end up in the same position three weeks from now.

So there's only one real solution: batten down the hatches in the DEI and press forward in the South and East China Sea regions.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 6:37:14 AM   
Barb


Posts: 2503
Joined: 2/27/2007
From: Bratislava, Slovakia
Status: offline 		Regarding night bombing discussion here... From your side you can offer few things to ease his "lack of NF focus":

1) as you mentioned, no port/airfield strikes - I think this is where the results can get really nasty "nuking" the target

2) use only planes "made for" night bombing - this would greatly reduce the numbers (e.g. Liberator B. marks, not GR marks, Wellington B. marks , the B-29B night version, maybe check for Radar equipment)

3) while saturating defenses with a nuke strike is good tactic, you can also spread the targeting around. One squadron there, other squadron there. A destroyed industry is destroyed industry (from scoring point) no matter if it is in Honshu or some forgotten place in Java.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 11:06:54 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb


3) while saturating defenses with a nuke strike is good tactic, you can also spread the targeting around. One squadron there, other squadron there. A destroyed industry is destroyed industry (from scoring point) no matter if it is in Honshu or some forgotten place in Java.


Industry damage – Two VPs per point damaged, 20 VPs per point destroyed (an item destroyed
when damaged will yield 18 more VPs). Industry can only be destroyed by firestorms and
A-bombs, but can be damaged by any type of attack (including firestorms and A-bombs). VPs
scored by damaging industry is cumulative; if an industry hex is bombed, damaged, repaired,
then bombed again, the player keeps earning VPs as long as the industry hex keeps generating
value by repairing itself.
This is true for all industry types including manpower.
Points will only be scored by the Allies for bombing industry in mainland Japan, and by the
Japanese for bombing industry in North America, Australia, and/or Hawaii.

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The Moose

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 12:47:41 PM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Ah Calvinball

Up there with the far side


I was a big fan of "Bloom County" in the 80s. Loved Opus!!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 3:31:31 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
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Status: offline 		@ Lopwe - the number of NF squadrons that can be resized is pretty small. 2 or so, in Scenario 1, and I'm sure one of those withdraws. It's a help, but it's still nowhere near enough.

Regarding night bombing, I've ranted and raved on the issue quite extensively.

My opinion boils down to this:

It has its quirks for both sides, but on the whole, outright banning it is wrong as it makes the primary strategic consideration for Japan in the late-war an afterthought - namely defending the Home Islands industrial centres against air attack.

For John to simply not want night bombing to occur is simply unfair. It means he can get away with just day CAP, and that means hundreds of fighters to deploy elsewhere.

That said, I know how he feels. I can get on board with the argument that it's way too effective on tactical targets (airbases, ports), but cities are a completely different kettle of fish.

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Post #: 10329
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 5:04:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/21/44

Battle of Bangkok: General Allied attack at Bangkok tomorrow; stiff opposition possible but unlikely.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 5:21:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/21/44

Torres Strait, KB, and Supply War Games: Interesting chess match ongoing down in the Torres Strait region, where SoPac KB can roam at will and has a few nice targets nearby. Against that is the backdrop of whether SoPac KB's 500 aircraft will be missed when Peep Show gets underway.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 5:25:30 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

Battle of Bangkok: General Allied attack at Bangkok tomorrow; stiff opposition possible but unlikely.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 5:47:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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DEI: Is KB heading this way? Can I configure defenses that will pose a threat to KB and minimize whatever raiding John has in mind?

The idea is to not allow too much attrition to the supply depots, which are scattered around (not all eggs in one basket). With the Allied fleet committed elsewhere, John can make trouble here, but I don't think enough trouble to be a concern, nor enough to offset the effect of his carriers not being present for Peep Show.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/9/2017 6:01:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/21/44

Fun House and Peep Show: Lots of important things going on elsewhere, but here's where the war will be won (militarily at least).




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 12:44:21 AM   
DW

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

quote:

Ah Calvinball

Up there with the far side


I was a big fan of "Bloom County" in the 80s. Loved Opus!!


In case you're not aware,Berkeley Breathed restarted Bloom County last year.

http://www.gocomics.com/bloom-county

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 3:22:43 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/21/44 evening

At headquarters, the mists of uncertainty finally cleared. A plan came into focus. Decisions were made. Each one led to another and another in an endless cascade. And suddenly it was as if everything needed to happen right now - today! - to take advantage of an apparent opportunity. But some of the troops are scattered; some are in strategic mode; some are prepped for targets that will not be targeted this time around.

The plan is one to strike deeply, quickly - blitzkrieg! - rather then the alternative, which meant a slower unfolding preceded by a lengthy aerial campaign.

I am not positive that the targets are weakly defended, despite the consistently encouraging SigInt. John has been hard at work, after all. I'll light up the targets in two or three days. If there is not weakness there, as I had hoped, I'll recall the ships and revert to the slower, heavier campaign. But I think the opportunities are there...and perhaps not much longer.

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Post #: 10336
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 12:38:08 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
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Status: offline 		"Antici...............................................................................pation!"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 1:16:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Is it a mistake for John to not have KB assembled to oppose the next invasion? Far-flung detachments of KB are threatening the main Allied LOC in the DEI area. They're also harvesting points, in the form of vulnerable Allied shipping. From a VP standpoint, that makes sense. He may also believe that LBA - based on "unsinkable carriers" like Formosa - are sufficient to handle the threat, without risking his valuable (Victory Points!) carriers to attack. He'll also be configuring a layered defense - mines, subs, motor torpedo boats, kamikazes.

If his defense is successful, he'll bleed the Allied invasion badly, while also creating problems out on the flank - the LOC.

If he's wrong - if the Allies handle the opposition reasonably successfully - then they take that next step forward, closer to the Home Islands.

I'm not positive I'm right or that John's wrong, but the possible consequences of not having those extra 900 (or so) aircraft available on a mobile platform not subject to Allied 4EB seems questionable.

Death Star will steam north with a lot of escort TFs and support TFs - combat, ASW, minesweepers, minelayers, DEs and DDs to deal with riff-raff. There will be subs on combat patrol and subs loaded with mines.

Death Star is configured mostly with defense in mind - lots of extra fighter squadrons. Most of the inferior FM2 squadrons have been replaced by Hellcats now. The few that aren't will switch out in two or three days, even while at sea.

The amphibious forces include about five divisions, tanks, combat engineers, HQ, amphibious force HQ, and engineers. There are four potential beachheads. I have solid information about one (I think), while the other three are unknowns but seem promising given location and lack of SigInt for any troops. I don't need all four beachheads to be weakly defended - just two - or even one - will be sufficient.

No recon has visited these bases - ever. That'll change in about three days.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 1:48:36 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
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Post #: 10339
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 1:49:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Shangri-La

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 2:03:29 PM   
DRF99


Posts: 90
Joined: 9/3/2009
Status: offline 		You're concentrating your force, John is dispersing his.
You can choose the time and place of attack. John can only react after the fact and, since his CVs are so dispersed, late.
You know where his various KBs are. He probably has an idea of where the DS is but doesn't know where it is going.

I can't see any other outcome but John being crushed at the point of attack.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 3:20:43 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No turn from John today, as he's fallen into one of his occasional forget-to-communicate lapses. He requested a turn for last evening, but I didn't hear from him til this morning, when he implied a turn would come this afternoon...and that was the last I've heard from him.

To close out the day, here's a screenshot I'd offer as an exhibit in a presentation about why AE (and, more specifically, this Mod) is a game, not a simulation.





I'm pretty sure "sorties" counts things like search missions.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 3:24:38 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is it a mistake for John to not have KB assembled to oppose the next invasion? Far-flung detachments of KB are threatening the main Allied LOC in the DEI area. They're also harvesting points, in the form of vulnerable Allied shipping. From a VP standpoint, that makes sense. He may also believe that LBA - based on "unsinkable carriers" like Formosa - are sufficient to handle the threat, without risking his valuable (Victory Points!) carriers to attack. He'll also be configuring a layered defense - mines, subs, motor torpedo boats, kamikazes.

If his defense is successful, he'll bleed the Allied invasion badly, while also creating problems out on the flank - the LOC.

If he's wrong - if the Allies handle the opposition reasonably successfully - then they take that next step forward, closer to the Home Islands.

I'm not positive I'm right or that John's wrong, but the possible consequences of not having those extra 900 (or so) aircraft available on a mobile platform not subject to Allied 4EB seems questionable.

Death Star will steam north with a lot of escort TFs and support TFs - combat, ASW, minesweepers, minelayers, DEs and DDs to deal with riff-raff. There will be subs on combat patrol and subs loaded with mines.

Death Star is configured mostly with defense in mind - lots of extra fighter squadrons. Most of the inferior FM2 squadrons have been replaced by Hellcats now. The few that aren't will switch out in two or three days, even while at sea.

The amphibious forces include about five divisions, tanks, combat engineers, HQ, amphibious force HQ, and engineers. There are four potential beachheads. I have solid information about one (I think), while the other three are unknowns but seem promising given location and lack of SigInt for any troops. I don't need all four beachheads to be weakly defended - just two - or even one - will be sufficient.

No recon has visited these bases - ever. That'll change in about three days.


I think it is a strategic mistake, although as you note it is netting him a couple of advantages - points and forcing you to pay more attention to some rear areas than you would otherwise.


...Swatow? Amoy? Maybe even Foochow? Although I'm not sure 5 divisions is enough to send into China... Basing that guess solely off you mentioning to recon on those targets, yet I see in the screenshot that you have DL's on a lot of Formosa. The Formosa bases are worth a hefty number of points...

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Post #: 10343
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 3:28:36 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
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Status: offline 		Formosa should be worth lots of VPs due to the fact that Japan has controlled it since end of Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 3:42:32 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Shangri-La



Japanese mainland....

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 3:54:02 PM   
Simonsez


Posts: 110
Joined: 12/7/2011
Status: offline 		The Kuriles/Hokaido.

Mainland Japan seems to be a bridge too far at this point, but with a major portion of John's fleet assets far to the south and west there is a window to get in and get bases built before any effect action can be taken.

Hit em where he ain't. Also allows for a northern SLOC that John cannot really interfere with considering a split KB and lack of surface forces to provde effective bombardment runs in coordination with air strikes. This presumes a gleaning from intelligence reports that the Kuriles have not been a recent focus for reinfircements and or base buildings and a corresponding draw down in John's dispositions in the Aleutians.

The world awaits......

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It's a trap!

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Post #: 10346
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 4:00:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7th Division, which begins on Hokkaido, has been "marooned" in the Aleutians for more than a year; as far as I know it is still there.

There may be another division in the Aleutians also, I think at Buldir Island.

There are weaker garrisons of the Kuriles. Hokkaido has strength...and weakness.

And then there's Sikhalin Island....

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 4:10:55 PM   
Lecivius


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Status: offline 		.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 6:18:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/22/44

Southeast Asia: Bangkok and Mergui fall to the Allies. The Allies won't advance down the Malay peninsula yet; the core of the Allied army will move east, sniffing out opposition and opportunities around Hue, Vinh and Saigon.

I don't think John will defend southern Indochina, but I don't have hard information yet.

In six months, the Allied overwhelmed the Japanese army in Burma, took Rangoon and Moulmein, and galloped through the jungle to take Bangkok. John went from fighting hard in this theater to retiring meekly. Where will he turn and make his next stand?




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2017 6:29:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/22/44

Torres Strait: KB splits, sinks an ARD fleeing from Horn Island, but mainly just patrols and looks menacing.




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