Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Termite2

HK starts with 160 HI and 220 LI in this scenario, it is a lot bigger than Canton.

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

(Actually, HK has a slightly larger shipyard than Manila's).

I confess that I don't know why John would fight for Hong Kong. It's no more valuable at this point than many other bases, either from a utility (shipyard/airfield) standpoint or from a VP standpoint. Manila was far more important. So is Foochow. So I don't think he'd react to a move on HK.

I still think there's a decent chance he'll move to intercede in the Formosa campaign.

HK is the door to Canton. I think Canton is industrially important. A JFB might disagree.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In all probability, the Allies will eventually take everything on the coast south of Foochow. With one army moving up from Vietnam, the Chinese army growing, and the western Allies firmly lodged at Foochow and Amoy, the Japanese position should be tenuous. Tenuous, that is, once I have enough supply to allow bombing.

For now, I don't have the supply or the troops to engage in a major move further into China. I'm making noise, simply because I don't want John to guess that most of my western units are going to pack up and ship out for Formosa within about three weeks. I'll hold Amoy (because I don't want John to have a big airfield near Formosa) and Foochow (because I intend to use it as a key strategic bombing center going forward).

So Hong Kong and Canton will be targeted but not in the short term.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In all probability, the Allies will eventually take everything on the coast south of Foochow. With one army moving up from Vietnam, the Chinese army growing, and the western Allies firmly lodged at Foochow and Amoy, the Japanese position should be tenuous. Tenuous, that is, once I have enough supply to allow bombing.

For now, I don't have the supply or the troops to engage in a major move further into China. I'm making noise, simply because I don't want John to guess that most of my western units are going to pack up and ship out for Formosa within about three weeks. I'll hold Amoy (because I don't want John to have a big airfield near Formosa) and Foochow (because I intend to use it as a key strategic bombing center going forward).

So Hong Kong and Canton will be targeted but not in the short term.

In my last campaign once I got a foot hold in Southern China, there was little my opponent could do about it. Just no way the Japanese can fight vs the Allies in open terrain, and it is all pretty much open terrain. Great tank country. This is especially true if there are not restrictions on the Allies about bombing Japanese units in the open.

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

(Actually, HK has a slightly larger shipyard than Manila's).

I confess that I don't know why John would fight for Hong Kong. It's no more valuable at this point than many other bases, either from a utility (shipyard/airfield) standpoint or from a VP standpoint. Manila was far more important. So is Foochow. So I don't think he'd react to a move on HK.

I still think there's a decent chance he'll move to intercede in the Formosa campaign.

HK is the door to Canton. I think Canton is industrially important. A JFB might disagree.

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ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I think I mentioned this before Dan. The F4U-1A stays in production until 6/45, same as the F4U-1D.
So your F4U production will be triple what it is now. 78 + 158 = 236 per month.

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ORIGINAL: paullus99

Via the maps, it appears John is trying to contain you in China & may even have thoughts of a counter-attack. I'm not sure, again, that he realizes just how dangerous a re-supplied and re-equipped Chinese Army is.

If you can continue to dump supplies through Rangoon or even closer to the front, then it becomes the Chinese Army doing most of the heavy lifting in pinning down John's troops & then you just bombing the hell out of anything that enters clear terrain.

Have fun!

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are two key aspects to the ground war in China that will determine how things play out into the medium term:

1) Supply is coming in from Rangoon in moderate amounts now, but most of the Chinese units are in non-base hexes. So they aren't eligible to upgrade to '43 squads. To this point, that hasn't been an issue, because the supply faucet has only just turned on. But as units begin to upgrade in bases, I'll move them forward while replacing them with "lesser" units rotating back. That's just happened at Chungking, where a big Chinese corps has gone to '43 squads. As soon as a replacement garrison unit arrives, that corps will move forward. It's prepping for Canton. But the changeover to '43 squads will be sporadic and protracted - it isn't going to have an impact for quite some time.

2) The bigger question is whether John maintains a viable defensive line that keeps the western Allied units in Vietnam from linking up with Chinese units in China. If the western Allies bust through at Hanoi/Haiphong/Lan Song, then they can move on Canton in strength or move to break the main Japanese MLR in the Nanning to Changsha sector. Either way, the balance of power would tip dramatically, I think, in China.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are two key aspects to the ground war in China that will determine how things play out into the medium term:

1) Supply is coming in from Rangoon in moderate amounts now, but most of the Chinese units are in non-base hexes. So they aren't eligible to upgrade to '43 squads. To this point, that hasn't been an issue, because the supply faucet has only just turned on. But as units begin to upgrade in bases, I'll move them forward while replacing them with "lesser" units rotating back. That's just happened at Chungking, where a big Chinese corps has gone to '43 squads. As soon as a replacement garrison unit arrives, that corps will move forward. It's prepping for Canton. But the changeover to '43 squads will be sporadic and protracted - it isn't going to have an impact for quite some time.

2) The bigger question is whether John maintains a viable defensive line that keeps the western Allied units in Vietnam from linking up with Chinese units in China. If the western Allies bust through at Hanoi/Haiphong/Lan Song, then they can move on Canton in strength or move to break the main Japanese MLR in the Nanning to Changsha sector. Either way, the balance of power would tip dramatically, I think, in China.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is an unusual set of circumstances that limits what I can do in China. Logistics and supply are at the heart of the matter.

The western Allies have taken Foochow and Amoy in great shape with a strong army of six divisions. If I had lots of supply, I'd simply turn this in to the next big campaign, dumping supply and troops and moving to isolate and destroy John's army and them go north.

But I'm at the end of a year-long campaign and at the far end of an LOC that stretches from San Francisco to Oz to the DEI to Manila to Foochow. It takes time and a great deal of resources, at some risk, to push supply that far forward.

Peep Show took place with only about 100k supply - not enough to sustain a major campaign in China. Even when the next influx of supply arrives, I don't want to dump it at Foochow only to have it dribble out into the countryside.

Instead, Peep Show I was purposefully designed to take Foochow for strategic bombing purposes. I'm building the base big and will keep it well supplied. Peep Show II targets Formosa, where supply won't dribble away. Formosa gives me additional big airfields, denies them to John, and allows me to work on a major part of the Japanese army.

I want most of the supply and ground troops in the coming China campaign to come from Rangoon (the supply) and the western Allies (moving up from Indochina).

Once Formosa is in hand, the Allies will focus on two things for the balance of 1944: taking another strategic bombing platform closer to Japan (northern China, Korea, Home Islands, whatever); cleaning up the rear, taking important points/resource bases like Singapore, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpapan, Port Moresby and maybe Rabaul.

By the end of 1944, John's DEI holdings will be fragmented and essentially worthless. The Home Islands will be under seige by air, if not by land and sea also.