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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 5:11:35 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

I also just watched that documentary

That historians little antidotes have always been my favorite part.


Shelby Foote. I have his three volume set history of the war, but I have never managed to finish them all. He's great on camera.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 5:21:19 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Repairing LI at this point makes no sense at all because it eats 1000 supply per. It's not about the break even calculation per se at this point, getting back a few points per turn for a few thousand consumed makes no sense.


I disagree. The break-even argument is long-standing on the forum. It's only one dimension. Alfred long ago made excellent arguments about opportunity cost being the proper lens to look at repairs through. I support that.

You can spend/expense the thousand locally, sure. Combat, replacements, air missions, etc. Then it's gone. At that point the logistic structures have to swing into action to bring more. Ships, fuel, ship damage and subsequent repair time and resources consumed, risk of ship loss and lost VPs. Transit time. Player workload overhead. Tying up ships that could be doing other things. Once a pile is brought to the receiving port, distribution time and possible transit loss.

If Resources are transit-free (and they are pretty much everywhere the Allies go), the only consideration is 1000 now for 1 per day forever per repaired point. Thirty per month forever, per repaired point. Of supply with no risk and no cost. You also get into a "charitable curve" where formerly repaired LI helps fund succeeding 1000s at an accelerating rate.

Right now almost all of CR's attention is focused on using DS to get his log through from far away at risk of loss and opportunity cost of having DS tied up for at least many weeks. All to bring supply to the PI for strat bombing, and China for land ops. When both land masses make a lot of supply for free. Maybe none is damaged; I don't know. But if any is it makes sense to me to fix it at a one-time cost rather than pay until the end of the war for expensed supply from SF. Location has great value.

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Post #: 10742
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 5:42:09 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		When Shelby died, we lost a great historian.

I'll treasure his work for the rest of my life & have them on my kids' reading lists for when they get older.

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Post #: 10743
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:15:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Shelby Foote was the historian who wrote something to this effect: "For every southern boy, there comes a day when it's noon on July 3, 1863."

He was referring to the fact that most of us were raised with a knowledge of, and reverence for, the Civil War...and that Picket's Charge represented the penultimate moment of that great conflict.

He was right...in 1900 and 1940 and 1970. But that's no longer the case. High school curriculums, and social sensibilities, have minimized instruction on that war and many other things that seemed significant to prior generations. A 30-year-old friend who interned here - one of the smartest young people I've ever known - has never heard of Pickett's Charge (or the Bismarck, for that matter). He has a master's degree in Chinese and is very well read. But mention the Civil War and, for him, crickets chirp.

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Post #: 10744
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:19:39 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		You guys have launched into an interesting discussion on supply generation. At the moment it's way over my head. I hadn't even considered what might be involved in generating supply locally. I don't even know what it takes to generate supply. The best I can come up with is that it involves oil (or is it resources?) and heavy or light industry.

I'm not asking you to bring the discussion down to my level; rather, it's up to me to jump on this good idea and figure out what's involved and whether it makes sense to do this.

I don't know where I have heavy/light industry. I do have some accumulated oil and resources at some of the bases I've taken. On a few occasions, I've even shipped oil from Boela and Babo to generate fuel in Australia.

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Post #: 10745
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:25:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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KB, DS, Mini DS Play Chicken: A complicated and interesting game of Chicken has developed in the DEI.




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Post #: 10746
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:27:09 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
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Status: offline 		You guys have it set in your mind that John is playing the VP game, well until now...it is kind of sad.

Sure the VP are there, and important, but there are many other reasons why Japan is doing what it is doing. I know I am fairly clueless about Allied considerations in the late game. I am not saying John is right or wrong or hurting himself (or not) because he isn't doing the anticipated Allied course of action.

You have just now keyed into another possible explanation for his actions, and that is to buy time. But there are others, even more important explanations that I suspect only a JFB can appreciate.

He is basically playing the endgame for the first time himself and is doing imho, very well. He has not thrown up his hands and quit. He has not thrown away the KB in a futile clash with the Deathstar.

Japan's behavior is not wrecking the game...simply because Japan is not behaving the way you want it to do. And who is to say how Japan would have reacted irl, given the the same circumstances that John finds himself in.

I have news for you too...Formosa is a glass cannon. Once Orchid Island was taken, Formosa was doomed. There isn't a single runway that isn't on the beaches. Now that Foochow is taken, it is doubly doomed. So it is either a POW camp or the target for the next invasion whatever CR decides...but isn't it great that John is forcing CR to make difficult decisions still at this late date?

It is what makes the game great...and for taking Tokyo as a victory condition...I think that is a horrible idea, as it is limiting to the strategies and tactics both sides take. If you want Tokyo...then go for it, but why handicap late war strategies with such a handcuff?






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Post #: 10747
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:27:33 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Shelby Foote was the historian who wrote something to this effect: "For every southern boy, there comes a day when it's noon on July 3, 1863."



I think in "The Civil War" he quoted that line and said it was Faulkner who originated. From memory.

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Post #: 10748
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:30:11 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You guys have launched into an interesting discussion on supply generation. At the moment it's way over my head. I hadn't even considered what might be involved in generating supply locally. I don't even know what it takes to generate supply. The best I can come up with is that it involves oil (or is it resources?) and heavy or light industry.

I'm not asking you to bring the discussion down to my level; rather, it's up to me to jump on this good idea and figure out what's involved and whether it makes sense to do this.

I don't know where I have heavy/light industry. I do have some accumulated oil and resources at some of the bases I've taken. On a few occasions, I've even shipped oil from Boela and Babo to generate fuel in Australia.


It's a couple of short sections in the manual in the Production chapter. LI needs only Resources. They flow to the LI factories. LI is all over the place. Each base screen shows it on the bottom row of icon, or you can look at the Industry tab on the tool bar. Hotkey "I" I think.

AFBs don't need to do a lot of this, but some. Especially when the distances from CONUS get extreme.

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Post #: 10749
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:32:11 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

I also just watched that documentary

That historians little antidotes have always been my favorite part.


Shelby Foote. I have his three volume set history of the war, but I have never managed to finish them all. He's great on camera.


I have the audio book version that he read himself, unabridged. Great for car trips. I bet it is on youtube or somewhere...his voice has lulled me to sleep in the passenger seat many a time...which of course is reason to rewind and play it again.

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Post #: 10750
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:32:57 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		8/14/44

Manila Light Industry & Resources: Both are present.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:38:46 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/44

Manila Light Industry & Resources: Both are present.





You're good at Manila. No damage.

Each of the 100 LI factories uses 15 Resources a day (1500 per day total) to make 100 Supply per day in total.

If you look at bases with connections to Manila you'll find other Resource producers. I don't have the game open now. Many Resource producing bases have no other industry, so the Resources flow to where the demand is.

China is more important to me. Where do you have organic supply (supply that "just happens" with no LI or HI present.) Where are you making LI supply? China is riskier to supply than the PI now.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 6/7/2017 6:49:28 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:39:21 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/44

Manila Light Industry & Resources: Both are present.





100 supplies per day until those 45K Resources are finished.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:39:53 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I have the audio book version that he read himself, unabridged. Great for car trips. I bet it is on youtube or somewhere...his voice has lulled me to sleep in the passenger seat many a time...which of course is reason to rewind and play it again.



It's on Netflix right now. Also Ken Burns' "The War", about WWII. I'm re-watching it at the gym on my phone.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:40:21 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.


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Post #: 10755
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:48:28 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You guys have it set in your mind that John is playing the VP game, well until now...it is kind of sad.

Sure the VP are there, and important, but there are many other reasons why Japan is doing what it is doing. I know I am fairly clueless about Allied considerations in the late game. I am not saying John is right or wrong or hurting himself (or not) because he isn't doing the anticipated Allied course of action.

You have just now keyed into another possible explanation for his actions, and that is to buy time. But there are others, even more important explanations that I suspect only a JFB can appreciate.

He is basically playing the endgame for the first time himself and is doing imho, very well. He has not thrown up his hands and quit. He has not thrown away the KB in a futile clash with the Deathstar.

Japan's behavior is not wrecking the game...simply because Japan is not behaving the way you want it to do. And who is to say how Japan would have reacted irl, given the the same circumstances that John finds himself in.

I have news for you too...Formosa is a glass cannon. Once Orchid Island was taken, Formosa was doomed. There isn't a single runway that isn't on the beaches. Now that Foochow is taken, it is doubly doomed. So it is either a POW camp or the target for the next invasion whatever CR decides...but isn't it great that John is forcing CR to make difficult decisions still at this late date?

It is what makes the game great...and for taking Tokyo as a victory condition...I think that is a horrible idea, as it is limiting to the strategies and tactics both sides take. If you want Tokyo...then go for it, but why handicap late war strategies with such a handcuff?




First, I agree about Tokyo. That would cause ALL sorts of torqueing late-game moves by Japan. Uber-uber stacks, etc.

And we got a surrender without setting foot on the HI. The VP system is near-genius. It works.

The rest . . .

I agree playing for time is smart. It's the best move by Japan because, as I say until I'm just tired, the Allies can't win by ANY other means but auto-victory. And that has time limits built in.

But. John isn't doing that either. To me he's "milling about smartly." He's not cracking on down south to harvest VPs and apply great pressure on LOCs. He's not maxing damage to the fleet up north. A mission kill is fine for Japan at this point. It's what kamis were for. And they worked well for that. Sacrificing the KB to put 2/3 of the DS in the yards would be a great move. Once he's out of fuel it's useless anyway. Crunching DS makes everything else Allied more vulnerable to air attack, including kamis. But he isn't going that either.

I'm not sure what he's doing. But CR has total visibility of his important fleet units. CR's maps just amaze me every day compared to what I can see of Japan in my Lokasenna game. It's like CR has Keyhole sats. John is not throwing chairs and tables in CRs' path. Landing after landing. When is the last time CR worried about mines? I don't know.

No, he hasn't quit. But sometimes I get the feeling he's up here in the bleachers with us, watching CR move.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 6/7/2017 6:51:49 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:50:18 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.



You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent. In this case, how is the Allied supply stockpile going to be destroyed? He is so far maintaining air superiority protecting from both air and naval bombardments and certainly land attacks will not seize the stockpiles.

The notion of repairing supply generation when that will not pay back pertains when the supply stockpile is in danger of being destroyed or captured, or dispersed undesirably by the game engine. Those things will not happen on Luzon or Formosa.

On the mainland dispersal will only start to happen when LOCs are established with the Chinese Army.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 6/7/2017 6:51:43 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:54:58 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent.


These two statements are in opposition.

Supply is "destroyed" by use. All I'm arguing is to secure production right here, with no time lag, where possible, while the supply pile is un-used by combat . . yet.

I wouldn't repair LI in Melbourne. I would in HK.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 6:59:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		8/14/44

Peep Show: Formosa's airfield look to be in a bad way. Allied stack knocks back battered enemy stack towards Swatow. I don't think John has anything to fight with closer than Kukong. I'm not going much further on this side of China, due both to supply considerations and to the fact that a goodly number of my divisions are highly prepped for Formosa.

Indochina: The southern Allied army will begin arriving at Saigon the day after tomorrow. The northern army took Vinh today. The road to Hanoi/Haiphong looks open. John could be hiding a stiff little army somewhere in Indochina, but I don't see it.

What happens next? (1) on the Malaya front, I'm establishing a little MLR SW of Bangkok, meant to hold until (one day, three or so months from now) I'm finished in China and ready to move on Singapore; (2) the combined southern and northern components of the Allied armies in Indochina will move on Hanoi/Haiphong and then into China. I hope this will be sufficient, when combined with Chinese troops and the Peep Show lodgments, to break John's back in China. I can foresee a day when there's one front in China, with Chinese infantry handling most of the ground war and the Western Allies handling the air war. As soon as that's the case, the western Allied troops that came up from Indochina will move south for the Singapore campaign (I think).






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 7:09:21 PM   
Canoerebel


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Resources in the Philippines: Looks like 400k+ spread between three bases in the Central PI. Barges will begin transporting that to Legaspi.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 8:00:09 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.



You guys are wrong.

On the mainland dispersal will only start to happen when LOCs are established with the Chinese Army.


That is fine. I don't mind being wrong...but I still would repair it.

There is a clear terrain path to Chinese troops now...pretty long, but on roads for awhile...supply could be heading there now once a week.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 8:07:24 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
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Status: offline 		Let John put a blocking force up there - if he wants to bring the fight to you, he has to do it in the open, on your terms, not his.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 9:34:28 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/44

Resources in the Philippines: Looks like 400k+ spread between three bases in the Central PI. Barges will begin transporting that to Legaspi.




I am using xAKLs to move the resources from central and southern Philippines (Mindanao has some, but you don't have it). The only drawback is use of fuel and your barges will do some of that. I have lots of fuel, not sure if you do.

I think there is a trickle of resources that island-hops over to Luzon and finds its way to Manila. This may depend on the ports "facing each other" one hex distant arrangement. IIRC that setup can cause 50 supply per turn to hop between ports.

As for using supply to repair, I agree with doing it in places that will always have lots of supply coming in from the US/Capetown, but where you are in 1944, with need for speedy advance, IMO you cannot spare the repair supply until you have at least 3 months combat supply on hand. China supply is going to be sucked up by the Chinese, even if you have their units set on "No Replacements", "No Upgrades".

And if, as Lowpe suggests, John is being purposeful with KB, he must be using it to cover redeployment of troops and harvesting of oil/fuel before he is finally shut out of the South China Sea.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 9:38:07 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Is that a US unit I see three hexes west of Changsha? Nice way to put pressure on the Japanese MLR!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 9:39:31 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent.


These two statements are in opposition.

Supply is "destroyed" by use.
No to both. In this situation it's the wrong call, and supply is consumed by use, not destroyed.

All I'm arguing is to secure production right here, with no time lag, where possible, while the supply pile is un-used by combat . . yet.

I wouldn't repair LI in Melbourne. I would in HK.

In Hong Kong you can set supply to stockpile and it will only leave the base to supply units within range. As an aside, that might be what Dan wants at the time. I really doubt that he will have so little transit able to bring supply to the China coast that his units there will starve.

Here is a key point: any supply generated by repaired LI will also be pulled out to nourish nearby Chinese Army units. Bases do not retain any supply in the face of starving LCU calling for supply. At one time they did but they do not any longer. That change was made a long time ago.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 9:42:47 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.



You guys are wrong.

On the mainland dispersal will only start to happen when LOCs are established with the Chinese Army.


That is fine. I don't mind being wrong...but I still would repair it.

There is a clear terrain path to Chinese troops now...pretty long, but on roads for awhile...supply could be heading there now once a week.


Stockpile supply to stop base to base movement. There is no way to stop movement from a base to units that are not in a base (units in a base can only get supply from the base they are in), so even the daily production from LI would flow to most units in need.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 9:48:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		Lowpe, I think you've used your own logic against yourself.

You contend that John's play has been militarily beneficial (beyond the VP gaming aspect), but you concede that his play doomed Formosa (through the loss of Orchid Island and Foochow).

That's been my point all along. John is more or less successfully working the VP aspect, at least in the short term. But that's at the expense of the long term. He's done essentially nothing to slow down the Allied advance over the past ten month, beginning with Big Tent in November and continuing through Peep Show in August. I've been able to advance in big steps forward with only modest opposition. And these aren't little Dieppe like raids that don't mean much - these are massive "everything including the kitchen sink" invasions that are self-sustaining for months at a time.

John hung back, looking for opportunities to raid. Even that has been at best minimally effective for him. He did score the four small carriers a month ago. But his KB positions haven't slowed supply flow a bit, yet. That's because I bring supply forward in chunks of 500k, so that the resupply missions are spaced far apart. The LOC situation hasn't served as a break at all. The only break in the action comes about from the need to prep troops. So while troops are prepping, Death Star has the window to escort in supply.

I think nearly every person reading either or both AARs recognizes that John's handling of his defenses has been a fiasco from a military standpoint. He's really gotten himself in a mess.

From a gaming - Victory Point - standpoint, it's harder to tell at the moment. My thinking is - and I think witpqs just expressed this well - that eventually the military situation will bleed over into the VP ratio. If the Allies keep advancing, John's House of VP Cards is going to collapse at some point.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 9:54:04 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My comments about John focusing on Victory Points were not a criticism of his strategy. This is a game and the VP system is there for a reason. It works. I like the VP system and the way it provides the Japanese player with a fun way to work the end game. If I were a JFB, I'd work VP hard, twisting reality into all kinds of knots while working the system.

I suspect that John is not by nature a VP guy. We know he's a Navy man by preference, and I suspect that simulating real war Japanese doctrine (albeit, beefed up by mods and bolstered by house rules) is psychologically important to him. Ordinarily, I think he'd have attacked by now, in keeping with the Bushido Code. I suspect that he hasn't done so partly in response to some excellent tutelage by smart Forumites urging him to work the VP system hard. John has responded, and the current score is a testament to how competitive VPs can make the game.

But I think John has backed so far away from his natural tendencies that it's affecting his enjoyment of the game. His VP-productive carrier raid in SoPac while Death Star was in the East China Sea was an example. And the current position of KB in the DEI, while the Allies have been invading coastal China and shutting down Formosa's airfields, is another good example. There are good VP reasons for doing what he's doing, but militarily he's contorted himself into a painful and dangerous position.

Things can still change. There's a chance of a major action in the DEI in the next day or two that could help him a lot. But if the Allied carriers and supply TFs do link up with Death Star in two or three days, what does John do then? Does he keep working the VP angle, with KB steaming around the DEI looking for something to hit while the Allies reduce Formosa to ruins? Will he be satisfied working the VP angle, or at some point does he give in to the historic Japanese ethic? I'm guessing the latter.



I dunno. I think VP considerations skew the end game and as I have said before there should be a final objective (Tokyo) before a certain time or all VP go out the window. This will give the Japanese player another option-that is an all out defense of the HI with no regard for his losses (hey, isn't that exactly what they were planning to do?) Now, it is kind of absurd. It is like he is in a chess game and trying to run around the board snapping up your pawns while your queen is sitting next to his king. Oh wait! I can't use that analogy in this AAR because I have already used the queen sacrifice analogy to explain your foray into Sumatra. You no longer have your queen...


I didn't like thinking about VPs until I played into 45 as Japan. Then it suddenly made all kinds of sense. If the Allies are extending themselves so far as to allow the Japanese to make CV raids in So Pac (which would have caused major political and civilian backlash in reality) this is the game's way of allowing the Japanese player to prove an Allied overextension. Otherwise why not just never do anything until June 44, then sail the complete Deathstar and following armada of amphibs at Hokkaido, Formosa or any number of game ending targets and then set up B-29 bases to end the war by Jan 45?

VPs keep both sides honest and allow the subtitles of the game to be used and appreciated. As a Japanese player it's the only thing you live for. Otherwise even the good days of kami strikes and sunk CVEs suck when 8 divisions are unloading at Moppo. You have to be able to take enough of a VP tithe that some moves, however successful strategically, still have such a cost they prolong the war.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 10768
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 10:23:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If I understand the helpful info from Bullwinkle, the 45k+ resources at Manila will yield about 3k supply. So the 450k+ resources in the central Philippines is good for about 30k supply, once transported to Manila. And it will take about 11 months for Manila's Light Industry to accomplish that.

In other words, the war will be over by the time I can use the resources in the Philippines. And 33k supply total of 11 months is a minimal amount anyway. Five Liberty Ships (6500 supply) worth. Every little bit helps, but such quantities don't mean much.

There may be other Light Industry locations (Hong Kong) that help out too.

But I think the traditional ol' transport system (my long, narrow LOC) will handle the vast majority of the supply.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 10769
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2017 10:38:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		8/14/44

Soerabaja: 218 bombers based here suddenly; probably for a night bombing mission.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 10770
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