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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2017 8:38:23 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Regarding China and the Japanese units approaching your bases, in open terrain, you mentioned a while back that you agreed to a house rule of no 4EB ground attacks at non-base hexes. What was the rationale for that restriction -- if there was one?


User error :P

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2017 9:36:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Regarding China and the Japanese units approaching your bases, in open terrain, you mentioned a while back that you agreed to a house rule of no 4EB ground attacks at non-base hexes. What was the rationale for that restriction -- if there was one?


John doesn't like 4EB. He probably feels they're overpowered.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2017 9:40:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
I see your calculus but how long could they have held even with some supply? Taihoku is on the coast and the terrain otherwise favors the attackers too. Most of the Allied forces from the rest of Formosa will be available sooner than previously expected because of the forward movement to Kagi, which left Takao severely weakened.


I can see this costing him a week or more, assuming he has some supply at Taihoku. If the two divisions I have present there aren't strong enough to take the base against 50th Division well-dug-in and supplied, then it might take a week or more for my other units to march from Takao and vicinity back to Taihoku. In the meantime, he might have the option to use bombardment TFs and to vector subs or other stuff towards a loitering Death Star.

I'm not saying that's what would happen - just that John may have eliminated the possibility, however large or small.

Time is what he's fighting for - not squashing a tiny Kiwi armored squadron. However, he knows if he's out of supply and if Taihoku is a lost cause. I that event, the move makes sense.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/5/2017 9:41:58 PM >

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Post #: 11223
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2017 10:32:08 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		John waited a day after the NZ tanks entered Taihoku hex before attacking. He should have been able to calculate that on good road, making 30 miles a day, your other troops would arrive on the second day.
That, and the hex side control contest in China seem to point to a weakness in estimating movement rates and thus not being able to successfully block or attack. OTOH, you amaze me with your ability to foresee end positions for your LCUs four or five turns ahead. Well done, sir!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 11224
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 1:39:38 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Playing my longtime opponent entails a curious mixture of thinking I know what he's going to do (China, at the moment) and having not the slightest clue (his recent carrier moves). He fights where I don't think he'll fight. He doesn't fight where I'm sure he will fight. He was hyperactive with his combat ships and carriers when I expected. But he's done everything in his power to avoid fighting since he ran short of ships, which I really didn't expect. He's never really been a victory points guy but seems to be playing victory points now.

I'm pretty sure his AAR readers have helped shape his play for much of 1944. That's not a criticism, but rather a hunch based on John departing from what I think would be his natural tendencies. His readers have served him well....except perhaps it would've been merciful for him to follow the Bushido Code an attack. Fighting Joseph E. Johnson John III is kinda surreal.

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Post #: 11225
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 6:01:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/12/44

Battle of Formosa: The Allies prevail at Takao in a big way, the enemy stack retreating after taking heavy losses. The Allied attack at Taihoku comes off at 1:1. But the results are promising and a follow-up shock attack tomorrow.

Battle of Coastal China: John hasn't entered a coastal hex base yet. Will he? Won't he? I don't think he will.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 6:17:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/12/44

Details for Battles of Takao and Taihoku: See graphic.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 6:31:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/12/44

Strategic Bombing: Dipping my toes in the strategic bombing waters. This is just to get a feel for things; the real campaign will begin as Formosa winds down; really, that's about when Taihoku falls.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 7:01:01 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		The defenders on Formosa have consistent supply problems, among other things. It doesn't look like they can make much of a stand anywhere, even in that mountain base. In China I am curious to see if all the Japanese movement will lead to a hot conflict, or fizzle out in a sitzkrieg.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 7:11:39 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		100% CAP, 0 Range I bet on those Irvings. The Irving-Sa is woefully unprepared for the B29. I would have thought Kagoshima would have had more NFs.

What is up with no Irvings at Nagasaki...nothing, not even float planes? Looks like not much AA either.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 7:37:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		From what I've been seeing, John has been taking precautions vs. strategic bombing since January 1, and especially with the advent of the B-29 on April 1. He's had large numbers of fighters at Home Island bases even during the hottest fighting on Luzon and Formosa. And I've had a great deal of SigInt about AA units in the Home Islands. That dovetailed with the lack of AA at Luzon and at Formosa (until I stumbled into the nest of AA at Taikhoku). So I think he's trying pretty hard.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 7:52:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline 		I don't think there's any FOW with strategic VPs. Someone who has done a lot of strat bombing for points recently can confirm. But I think when you get them they show.

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The Moose

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Post #: 11232
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 8:10:59 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I don't think there's any FOW with strategic VPs. Someone who has done a lot of strat bombing for points recently can confirm. But I think when you get them they show.

+1

Fires are the gift that keeps on giving.

A full out raid on Nagasaki last night, despite the weather would really be another thing for Japan to bemoan.

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Post #: 11233
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 9:18:27 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Wow - that stack of AF Bns/Units at Taihoku show just how much he was expecting to operate his AF from there, and your bombardment TFs ruined it all! He must have lost over 2000 aircraft just on Formosa. Your VP harvesting is well underway!

EDIT: about the fire levels - in my games I never saw any messages about fire damaging industry after the fact until I had started fires over 200,000 in the initial attack, with lingering fires around 1000 next day. Can't say I have done enough strat bombing to be sure that is always the level of fires required.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 7/6/2017 9:21:34 PM >

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 11234
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/6/2017 10:24:29 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Wow - that stack of AF Bns/Units at Taihoku show just how much he was expecting to operate his AF from there, and your bombardment TFs ruined it all! He must have lost over 2000 aircraft just on Formosa. Your VP harvesting is well underway!

EDIT: about the fire levels - in my games I never saw any messages about fire damaging industry after the fact until I had started fires over 200,000 in the initial attack, with lingering fires around 1000 next day. Can't say I have done enough strat bombing to be sure that is always the level of fires required.



I have lost industry to less than 200 fires.

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Post #: 11235
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 4:06:19 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Wow - that stack of AF Bns/Units at Taihoku show just how much he was expecting to operate his AF from there, and your bombardment TFs ruined it all! He must have lost over 2000 aircraft just on Formosa. Your VP harvesting is well underway!

EDIT: about the fire levels - in my games I never saw any messages about fire damaging industry after the fact until I had started fires over 200,000 in the initial attack, with lingering fires around 1000 next day. Can't say I have done enough strat bombing to be sure that is always the level of fires required.



I have lost industry to less than 200 fires.

Less than 200 during the bombing, or after the attack?

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 11236
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 6:10:48 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/13/44

Peep Show: Allied attack at Taihoku at 3:1 and drops forts from 4 to 1, just missing taking the base. My guys will rest two days and then attack again, almost certainly taking the base.

Coastal China: Big IJA stacks near Foochow and near Amoy. Will he enter those hexes or not. Surely, surely not.

Indochina: Both sides moving around making little noises here and there, but nothing's going on that will mean anything long term. The three divisions John landed at various points last week are pretty beat up already.

KB: One division at Singapore, one at Soerabaja, and two probably around the Homes Islands, but I'm not picking up good information on them.








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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 12:18:20 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		I can't believe John is going to fight in the open - I bet he doesn't move forward.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 12:59:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Wow - that stack of AF Bns/Units at Taihoku show just how much he was expecting to operate his AF from there, and your bombardment TFs ruined it all! He must have lost over 2000 aircraft just on Formosa. Your VP harvesting is well underway!

EDIT: about the fire levels - in my games I never saw any messages about fire damaging industry after the fact until I had started fires over 200,000 in the initial attack, with lingering fires around 1000 next day. Can't say I have done enough strat bombing to be sure that is always the level of fires required.



I have lost industry to less than 200 fires.

Less than 200 during the bombing, or after the attack?


Days after the attacks as the fires dwindled. Soo slowly.

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Post #: 11239
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 1:06:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/13/14

Naval Skirmishing near Taihoku: A series of nighttime and daytime clashes - the Japanese are the aggressors, the Allies have the numbers, but the outcome doesn't live up to the promise.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 1:15:46 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I would say you manhandled the Japanese there, considering TF 203 is pretty weak. Nicely done.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 9:59:33 PM   
Bif1961


Posts: 2014
Joined: 6/26/2008
From: Phenix City, Alabama
Status: offline 		Dosen't appear that he has a lot of AAA at Kagoshima as you PB4Y-1s took no damage.

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Post #: 11242
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 10:13:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/14/44

Glen Wars: Two Glens destroyed on "Ground" today, raising hopes that two of John's subs went under.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/7/2017 10:22:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/14/44

I don't often post about the day-to-day sub wars, preferring only to mention major hits or trends. Here's a trend update:

Japanese Sub Doctrine: Several months ago, John began deploying subs on the map margins - a very marked departure from his conduct the prior 18 months to two years. Suddenly there were subs patrolling the West Coast, then Colombo, then the Aden wormhole, then Diego, then the Albany/Esperance sector of Australia.

John scored quite some kills - perhaps 15-20 over two or three months. Most (all?) were xAKs on supply duty. I shifted things around a bit and made do with what ASW platforms were in the vicinity. Allied ASW has killed a handful of enemy subs - perhaps 5 or 6.

This has been effective for John from a Victory Points/Gaming standpoint. It hasn't been from a military standpoint. I've gotten a few too many of his subs and I'd rather have his subs way out on the margins than posing a risk to capital ships. I'll willingly feed an occasional sacrificial lamb to the enemy wolf packs if I can keep the current trends going.

John mostly keeps his subs away from strong Allied ASW platforms, such as Death Star. I think he's reconsidering due to the Formosa crisis. He's also begun laying mines more actively.

Allied Sub Doctrine: Like John, I now keep my subs away from KB and strong enemy air patrols. My subs were incredibly quiet for many months, but recently sank CL Nagara and put three TTs into BB Ise. Some of my subs are minelaying. Most of them are serving as detectors of enemy air ASW.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/8/2017 12:26:37 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Honest work on Johns part. Never know if you are going to pick up a troop convoy or one of the capital ships rolling off the slipways every day. As for AK's, AP's and what not. Surprised he is not squatting i nthe canal zone more. You get DD's, DE's and those lovely PF's in significant numbers so just convoy up. Subs are not going to win or lose the war at this point...AK's are

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 11245
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/8/2017 3:39:32 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/14/44

See map for details.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/8/2017 3:46:01 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		you can have two glens on one Iboat, one in reserve.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/8/2017 6:47:39 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		To maximize the chance of a naval bombardment in a non-base hex:
- you must set the Bombardment TF to "remain on station", not "retirement allowed"
- you need a good prior D/L on the enemy troops and spotter planes for both night and day bombardment phases
- if you can, set a proper recon aircraft to that hex on the same day - the morning recon should raise the D/L for an afternoon bombardment (happens after the air phase).

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 11248
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/8/2017 6:32:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/15/44

Today was mostly about setting things up for tomorrow, which should be a very busy day, with:

1. Allied shock attack at Taihoku.
2. Allied deliberate attack against retreating enemy stack east of Takao.
3. Mining and strategic bombing versus Home Island targets (if planes fly).
4. Likely Japanese shock attack against US division west of Amoy - to disrupt the enemy, Allied 2EB and naval bombardment.
5. Invasion of Camiguin Island north of Luzon.
6. Probing deliberate attack after yesterday's invasion of nearby Calayan.
7. Allied shock attack at Lang Son on the Vietnam/China border.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/8/2017 8:15:52 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		BTW, John had to taken the troops for his Indochina adventure from somewhere. DEI you think?

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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