RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/2/2017 6:43:51 PM

Canoerebel

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10/18/44

Raid on Osaka:

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Post #: 11581

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/2/2017 7:44:14 PM

Panther Bait

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While I suppose it could be fog of war effects, it almost looks like some of the Ki-100 factories (upper Ki-100 factory in the list) have been completely destroyed.

For that position, the factories were listed as follows on the indicated dates:
10/14 - 23 (0) Total 23
10/15 - 4 (14) Total 18
10/16 - 3 (14) Total 17
10/18 - 4 (13) Total 17 (with one already repaired or just FOW on status)

Compare that to something like Heavy industry which has stayed at some combination of undamaged/damaged factories that total 1951 or light industry which has always been 1901. In fact all the other listed items in the base info have the same total number

Mike

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Post #: 11582

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/2/2017 8:13:24 PM

Walloc

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From just counting the number of aircraft factories. There are 10 on the 10/14 Intel picture and still 10 at the latest Intel picture of Osaka.

Kind regards,
Rasmus

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Post #: 11583

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/2/2017 8:23:07 PM

Canoerebel

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Panther Bait is saying that production at the one KI-100 factor has been reduced from a total of 23 to (apparently) 17. Since I'm a newb at strategic warfare, I am probably not the one to venture any guesses at to what all this means, but I see the math that the good Panther is looking at.

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Post #: 11584

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/2/2017 8:33:16 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Panther Bait is saying that production at the one KI-100 factor has been reduced from a total of 23 to (apparently) 17. Since I'm a newb at strategic warfare, I am probably not the one to venture any guesses at to what all this means, but I see the math that the good Panther is looking at.

You would notice any such drop by larger upticks in strat VPs - 20 per point, instead of 2.

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Post #: 11585

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/2/2017 9:14:42 PM

Canoerebel

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Is there someplace that specifically includes the information that 20 points were received rather than 2? I don't think there is, but usually when I think something, somebody else who knows more points out that I am wrong, indeed wrong, woefully wrong.

Over the past few turns, there have been instances when the Strategic Points went up more than expected, and others when they went up less than expected. I usually assume the variability arises mainly from the impact of residual fires that keep doing damage days after the original raid. But I haven't seen anything (other than what Panther Bait just pointed out) that would suggest or confirm that any industry has been destroyed as opposed to damage.

Not that it matters a whole lot. The Allied mission is to rack up Victory Points, and the most efficient way to do that seems to be the targeting of Manpower.

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Post #: 11586

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 2:28:34 AM

jwolf

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Question: if you invade Ningpo as you said, I would think that base would not really be usable unless you also neutralize both the naval and air base at Shanghai. Are you planning some big bombardments and/or air raids to do that? Or what do you have in mind?

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Post #: 11587

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 4:47:14 AM

Canoerebel

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Under the current circumstances, Shanghai would be the hunted rather than the hunter. Death Star with 2,700 aircraft - augmented by Allied LBA from Foochow and Formosa and Allied combat ships - controls Shanghai, not the other way around (though there's always risk of something going awry). Bombardments following by 4EB raids would be the recipe to neutralize Shanghai, just as was done with the interlocking airfields on Formosa.

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Post #: 11588

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 4:54:59 AM

Canoerebel

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10/19/44

Investing in Shanghai: This shows about 1/3rd of the units prepping for Shanghai. This has been the plan for a long time, as the level of prep shows.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 5:06:09 AM

Canoerebel

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10/19/44

Partial OOB for possible operation to follow Ningpo/Shanghai.

I'm flexible, though. If things don't feel right, the troops are prepped for moves on Hainan Island, Singapore, and the DEI. Those are safer options but more expensive in terms of fuel.

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Post #: 11590

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 5:10:03 AM

Canoerebel

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10/19/44

Raid on Tokyo: Effective bombing run vs. Tokyo today. Osaka/Kyoto continues to burn.

Fancy Pants: Battle taking place just north of Amoy. I'd like to win but my Mitchells refuse to fly. Ultimately, though, this works if it draws John's attention while the real McCoy - the invasion of Ningpo - takes place in about three days.

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Post #: 11591

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 5:58:14 PM

Canoerebel

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10/20/44

SigInt: Very timely info on Guzan, Korea. I hope nothing changes over the next few weeks. It probably won't as John should have his hands full dealing with several crises.

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Post #: 11592

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 6:03:43 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there someplace that specifically includes the information that 20 points were received rather than 2? I don't think there is, but usually when I think something, somebody else who knows more points out that I am wrong, indeed wrong, woefully wrong.

Over the past few turns, there have been instances when the Strategic Points went up more than expected, and others when they went up less than expected. I usually assume the variability arises mainly from the impact of residual fires that keep doing damage days after the original raid. But I haven't seen anything (other than what Panther Bait just pointed out) that would suggest or confirm that any industry has been destroyed as opposed to damage.

Not that it matters a whole lot. The Allied mission is to rack up Victory Points, and the most efficient way to do that seems to be the targeting of Manpower.

You would have to track the VP totals turn over turn and compare with recon results/expected damage. I've sussed out approximate destroyed/damaged numbers before, but if the VPs received on a single turn are large then it is hard to tell.

I'd wait a turn on deciding whether the industry there was destroyed or not. The recon on this turn could be wrong in terms of the size, although that would be a first for me. On the other hand, another first for me would be seeing actual destruction of industry from regular old firebombing - I've never seen that before. I did 10K+ points of strat VP bombing on MM without seeing a single point of industry destroyed as opposed to damage. Only the A-bomb actually destroyed stuff.

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 8/3/2017 6:05:15 PM >

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Post #: 11593

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 6:53:39 PM

Canoerebel

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10/20/44

KB: Enemy carriers are in strength in the DEI and western Pacific. Those, at least, won't be present for the opening act of the invasion of Ningpo.

The Allied armada will face 500+ aircraft at Shanghai, hundreds more at surrounding bases, probably KB north, a combat vessel presence somewhat weakened by last week's action, probably subs and mines, and who knows what else. That's daunting...but it's not nearly as daunting as it would be had John those southern carrier groups up here.

I'll approach Ningpo carefully but I'd be playing way to cautiously if I backed off given the current balance of power. Ningpo and its airfield is too important. Putting B-24Js within range of Kyushu is too important. It's time to penetrate.

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Post #: 11594

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 7:14:00 PM

Canoerebel

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10/20/44

Raids: Raids scheduled for Hiroshima and Kobe don't fly, Osaka wasn't on today's schedule, but the night was nevertheless productive. Three small squadrons had oversized results against Tokyo, setting 60,000 fires.

John's Defenses: John has thousands of fighters at his Home Island airfields. Most of them, of course, are set to daytime. What surprises me is that he continues to employ disproportionate numbers at Kyushu, thus leaving Honshu's great cities disproportionately vulnerable (if I'm reading things correctly).

He has well over 200 fighters at Nagasaki, but far less at Hiroshina, Kobe, Osaka, Nagoya, Tokyo and Maebashi. He has only 30+ at Kobe!

Of course, Nagasaki is more proximate to Allied airfields, but the meager defenses of Osaka and Tokyo have resulted in tremendous losses the past few nights.

There's a lot of chatter in John's AAR right now. That and his body language lead me to wonder if he might be flummoxed by what's happening and freely soliciting advice. I'll find out soon enough.

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Post #: 11595

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 7:40:39 PM

Canoerebel

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10/20/44

Fancy Pants: All Ningpo invasion troops have boarded ships. D-Day in no more than three days. We are entering the Lion's Den.

Fancy Pants in China: The Allied attack at Amoy is weird: weirdly low odds following strong Mitchell bombing support....but the Japanese stack takes the greater casualties. Bombing should make the difference, medium term. But I haven't decided if I'm committed to a breakthrough here or just using this to distract from Ningpo. Probably as a distraction. If Ningpo succeeds, I'd rather land an army there and advance from there than fight in the face of John's MLR around Amoy/Foochow.

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Post #: 11596

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 8:28:46 PM

JeffroK

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Is your Amoy attack the effect of late war Allied firepower rather than a strict AV comparison??

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Post #: 11597

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 8:47:37 PM

aleajactaest10044

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Hawaii Code breaker report...loosely translated from IJA intercept...

Game Over Man

Nice to see the end game playing out as it did historically. While I understand force preservation for the IJN, there's going to be a whole crop of CV's available for the Bikini Atoll tests coming up...

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Post #: 11598

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 8:56:47 PM

aleajactaest10044

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Interesting paper on the subject...posted for the maps enclosed.

A cartographic fade to black: mapping the destruction of urban Japan during World War II

David Fedmana

pdf downloadable on page

< Message edited by TheGreatDebate -- 8/3/2017 9:02:06 PM >

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Post #: 11599

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 9:42:29 PM

Canoerebel

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This is a game of Victory Points, and the trend favors the Allies. My lead has grown to 14,000 points, roughly 20% of the way to auto victory. Half of that lead (7,000 points) has come from strategic bombing. Roughly 3/4ths of the strategic bombing points have accrued in the past week. As hoped, the arrival of supply and B-29s on Formosa increased the pace of operations and the harvesting of victory points. That enhanced level should be maintained for awhile. Then, when Ningpo is taken and the airfield built out, there may be another bump in pace as the B-24Js enter the strategic bombing war.

The Allies pulled even in points around August 2, 1944. As of October 20, they have a lead of 14k points. At that rate, victory would take around 12 months. But, as noted, the rate is expected to increase.

But this is a game of victory points and John still has lots of teeth. If a massive kamikaze raid penetrates Death Star's CAP and sinks 20 CVEs one day, my job gets more difficult. On the flip side, John is indeed running out of sea room. I expect the pace of sinking of enemy ships will increase too.

It's not over but the trend is clear. It's satisfying because it supports a lot of the decisions and predictions made long ago. The three-fold Allied strategy of attritioning the Japanese navy, interdicting Japan's LOC to the DEI, and obtaining big airfields from which to bomb the Home Islands has worked out just about perfectly. And my reasoning why Sumatra was a major Allied victory has proven accurate, despite the great guffaws and doubts of some readers way back then (it didn't have to be that way; it shouldn't have been that way; but I was right that I knew my opponent and how things were likely to play out).

John designed this scenario. Recently, he has commented in the Mods thread that it was later dialed back considerably because Japan had too many advantages. None of the dialing back was retroactive, though, so we're still using the original version. We also had two house rules that really benefitted him: (1) no 4EB attacks against ground troops outside base hexes and (2) no strategic bombing prior to 1944. Despite all that and the weirdly catastrophically victorious Sumatra campaign defeat, Japan has been pushed to the brink quickly and pretty darn smoothly.

I didn't set out to achieve auto victory on 1/1/45. I don't know if that's feasible at this point. I am shooting for the 2:1 AV ratio, and I'll take a measure of satisfaction if and when it is achieved. But if John wishes to play on, I'll gladly do so. I'm not sure he'll wish to, given the daily pounding he endures. I think, but I'm not sure, he'll be ready to move on to a new game.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 11:05:17 PM

witpqs

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Regarding a comment you made in an earlier post: As you are bombing his cities at night, what good would it do for him to deploy day fighters to those cities? Maybe they are on Kyushu to oppose an invasion.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 11:13:09 PM

Canoerebel

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If you switch day bombers to night, will they help at all? Even a tiny bit? I ask because I don't know but if I was him I'd have half my fighters on night duty just to try.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/3/2017 11:45:32 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If you switch day bombers to night, will they help at all? Even a tiny bit? I ask because I don't know but if I was him I'd have half my fighters on night duty just to try.

Maybe a little.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 12:05:48 AM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

If you switch day bombers to night, will they help at all? Even a tiny bit? I ask because I don't know but if I was him I'd have half my fighters on night duty just to try.

Day fighters deployed as night fighters might not shoot down much but they will disrupt bombing runs to some extent. Never know, they might get lucky and sometimes they will ram a bomber. If I were John I would have a lot more fighters doing this

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 1:01:23 AM

CaptBeefheart

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Boy, Shanghai sure is a fat shore bombardment target. I hope you're bringing a few AKEs/ADs/Nav Support/etc. to the party at Ningpo.

Regarding strategic bombing, usually you see players concentrating on one target at a time, with a mass raid getting a few hundred thousand fires going. That said, you seem to be doing pretty well hitting multiple targets with smaller packages. What's your thinking behind that?

Cheers,
CC

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 1:08:03 AM

Canoerebel

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Weather often prevents raids from leaving the airfield or targeting a base. So, most turns, I have bombers from three airfields targeting roughly three to six bases:
1. Foochow is mainly handling PBY Liberators (range 17) targeting Kyushu bases.
2. Taihoku, Formosa, has three B-29 squadrons mainly targeting Tokyo.
3. Taichu, Formosa, has possibly 15 B-29 squadrons that swap around, but Osaka, Kobe and Hiroshima are the primary targets.

So far it seems to be working.

Regarding Shanghai, lots of naval support and auxiliary ships at Taichu. I probably have five bombardment TFs, 10 good combat TFs, and five or six PT boat TFs. I think I'll try my first sallies against Ningpo and Shanghai day after tomorrow. PB boats and maybe small DDs to probe and see what the defenses might be.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 2:39:52 AM

BBfanboy

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Looks like John hugely over-expanded his Ha-45 production at Tokyo (360). It would take a year to repair all that, and 360K supply.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 2:19:28 PM

Canoerebel

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Readers are not required to educate the Thread Writer. Writing can take a lot of time. But the significance of BBfanboy's comment is largely lost on the Thread Writer, due to his ignorance of all things Japanese production. I assume the HA-45 is an engine? What aircraft is it used in? Why would John over expand? What is the likely or possible impact of the over expansion? What is the likely or possible impact of the damage to this factory?

The answer might be as simple as this: Too many unknowns to answer your question, Ignoramous.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 3:00:11 PM

Andav

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HA-45 is indeed an engine.

Supply if very often an issue for Japan in the end game. It is one of the main reasons why Japan fails to thrive in the late war. Hoarding supply for as long as possible is one of the major concerns for Japan. One of the fastest ways to run out of supplies is to over expand production (Engines, airplanes, etc.) which uses supplies to repair the facility. This has to be balanced between the fact that aircraft/engine pools can't be bombed but supplies and factories can. So the balancing act is building enough planes/engines and hiding them in the pools where they are safe verses having supplies to actually be able to use those planes as either replacements or even to fly. How large the engine factory needs to be is determined by demand for those engines in aircraft being produce. John must think he needs a LOT of these engines.

Wa

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/4/2017 3:10:22 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Looks like John hugely over-expanded his Ha-45 production at Tokyo (360). It would take a year to repair all that, and 360K supply.

Depends on how many Ha-45 factories he has elsewhere, and you don't need the Ha-45 until later on, so the time to repair all of it is a non-issue.

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