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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 6:48:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/16/45

Korea: Japanese army (two units) has arrived at the key blocking hex between Keijo and Gunzan. I assume this is but the lead elements. I think it's too late for John to succeed, but there's still a smidgeon of doubt. But things are reaching a climax now, here and in China...and Death Star is closing in.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 8:26:18 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		You have photoshopped my comments into the pic you see.


If "Victory Points are objective". Then why are you calling for a committee to change them? Will this be akin to the "The Committee of Public Safety" ? A Reign of Terror across the forum?

Victory Points are subjective to those that created them and can be biased or ambiguous to those that disagree with them. However, once agreeded upon by contesting parties they can be used objectively in determination.


"What's not biased or ambiguous is the comparison of where the Allies are here compared to the real war."

Not biased or ambiguous in comparing the "real war" to a game that has unhistorical units and actions? Equipment and capabilities that did not existed, ships and crews that can stay at sea indefinitely, DeathStar Forces... etc. It's not wrong if that is what a person wishes to do but it's not "it".

A snippet of a thought I've had on VPs is that too much emphasis is placed on places and not the people actually dying.

This comes to mind, during the occupation of Japan and the mindset of many Japanese:
quote:


"This young Japanese told us that all his fellow soldiers believed that Japan was winning the war. To them the losses of Iwo Jima and Okinawa were parts of a grand strategy to lure the American forces closer and closer to the homeland, until they could be pounced upon and utterly annihilated."


I'am not upset or angry and was not even going to reply but... I hate being misunderstood 'OH LORD PLEASE...; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxMZpNF3qN0
It makes me feel like I'am driving with a flat tire. And I'am not saying there is a wrong or a right in the VP - "Who won" debate, ... just that my comments were filtered through a lens to reflect a light not intended.

I posted the original comment, taking a less Monopoly look at the game and injecting a view of struggle where the opponent either surrenders or is killed, which more often than not, clearly defines the moment.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13382
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 8:32:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		We're comparing a significantly stronger Japan that's been pushed back considerably further and earlier. So it's a valid comparison.

The Death Star situation is interesting. It's a direct product of the situation. Japan has a vastly larger air force and capabilities to employ it en masse than was the case in the real war. In reaction to a much more virulent threat, the Allies respond by keeping carriers in proximity. They would've done the same if faced with a similar situation in the real war.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 13383
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 9:49:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/16/45

Intelligence Screen: This is the first time I've seen "Minor Victory" in the Allied column. It must've switched recently, probably in the past week.

It doesn't mean anything yet - just that the momentum swing is continuing.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 10:35:34 PM   
Mike McCreery


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Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Victory Points are objective.

"Surrender or Annihilation" is subjective. John can literally choose to play until the last dot hex is taken and declare "victory" when that happens in 1948.

What's not biased or ambiguous is the comparison of where the Allies are here compared to the real war. Pretty decisive victory by that measure, which corresponds to the game's Victory Conditions. Not biased. Not ambiguous.



Could it be that John just doesnt want the competition to end?


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Post #: 13385
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 10:40:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		There may be a hint of that for both of us. In my case, Bullwinkle once referred to it as "anticipatory nostalgia." That was an interesting perspective.

John and I have had fun for many years and now the end may be near. I think he's looking forward to this game ending so that he can begin afresh. But I think he's also having a difficult time dealing with the notion of defeat. He probably doesn't feel like he's been defeated. After all, there's no referee to step in and call the game a TKO.

I'd feel the same way if the roles were reversed and I was in his position. I don't want to lose to him. He doesn't want to lose to me. But we're at the point where a winner is going to be determined.

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Post #: 13386
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 10:52:01 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There may be a hint of that for both of us. In my case, Bullwinkle once referred to it as "anticipatory nostalgia." That was an interesting perspective.

John and I have had fun for many years and now the end may be near. I think he's looking forward to this game ending so that he can begin afresh. But I think he's also having a difficult time dealing with the notion of defeat. He probably doesn't feel like he's been defeated. After all, there's no referee to step in and call the game a TKO.

I'd feel the same way if the roles were reversed and I was in his position. I don't want to lose to him. He doesn't want to lose to me. But we're at the point where a winner is going to be determined.

quote:

I'd feel the same way if the roles were reversed and I was in his position. I don't want to lose to him. He doesn't want to lose to me. But we're at the point where a winner is going to be determined.


I suspect John believes as the German Army did after WW I. We were not defeated in the field, therefore we did not lose. As long as his CV's have not been defeated, he has not lost.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 13387
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/5/2018 10:57:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's in character. Can't you see the Japanese naval commander telling the Emperor, "Hey, we still have our carriers!" The Emperor's most likely reply: "Those Allied dogs are in Korea and all over China and Formosa, you imbecile. You sat there and played with your hands and let them come. Now you want to claim some kind of victory?"

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Post #: 13388
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 1:22:15 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		I would have referred to a different part of anatomy.

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Post #: 13389
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 2:58:57 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/17/45

Today was one of those decisive days that for the losing side can accurately be described as cataclysmic. John suffered a series of terrible land-battle defeats.

Korea: IJA 150th Div. moved into Gunzan from the south and evaporated under massed 4EB attacks, self-destructive bombardment and Allied deliberate attack. (How sobering will this be to John's notions of an offensive in Korea?) To the east, John's big stack attacked the much smaller but tough Allied stack in the base-hex in the woods. The Japanese stack faired very poorly. And in the air, the Japanese suffered another very tough day over Gunzan. Death Star is now in the Yellow Sea. I think today was decisive. Any hope John had in Korea probably vanished today. He probably sees possibilities but the longer he lingers the bigger the ultimate defeat. I think.

China: Allies finally took Tsingtao, key coastal hex, mauling big IJ stack. (This frees up the Allied units to embark on ships and move to Korea.) Over at Tsinan, John tried a purely hopeful deliberate attack that faired disastrously. His army has no hope. I don't know what he'll do. (In China, my main hope now is to maintain the status quo until the Canton/Hong Kong units filter this far north in another three weeks or so. North China pales in comparison to Korea.)

To the south, the Herd is just 25 hexes from Gunzan.

A few weeks ago, I described this as the penultimate campaign. I think that's accurate and that it opened with a real bang today.







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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 5:07:17 AM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Alfred said it best. Strategy.

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Post #: 13391
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 6:24:42 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Firepower!!!

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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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Post #: 13392
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 9:37:41 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		His only shot is a couple of weeks of truly horrible weather socking in all air support

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 13393
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 10:46:25 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		I think they would still get beaten up, even a good IJA Division cannot compete with an Allied 1945 Infantry Division, their firepower disrupts so many squads before any assault takes place.
Add a few Bns of Armour and....

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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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Post #: 13394
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 1:42:33 PM   
paullus99


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

His only shot is a couple of weeks of truly horrible weather socking in all air support



Where have we seen that particular line before?

LOL

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Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 13395
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 4:21:48 PM   
dave sindel

 

Posts: 488
Joined: 3/13/2006
From: Millersburg, OH
Status: offline 		I have mentioned before that when I log onto the forum, the first thing I look for are updates in this AAR. I thoroughly enjoy CR's updates and writing style. I dont read John III's AAR, I will once the game concludes.

I have also followed with interest the other ongoing thread about VP's. Many good comments and viewpoints in that thread on both sides of the debate.

As far as "victory" in this particular game - I think that if you were to take a person with some knowledge of geography and history, and no particular knowledge of or interest in WITPAE, and show that person a map of the current situation that their reaction would undoubtedly be along the lines of " Holy Crap ! Japan is doomed".

A question for you Dan - when this game concludes will you and John III play another against each other? Or will you devote all of your time to the match with obvert?

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 13396
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 5:36:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Dave. I'm really glad you enjoy the show.

Several months ago, John told me that he and Big Red had decided to square off in a match that he thought would start around Christmas. It hasn't started yet but probably will soon. So I don't think we'll be playing again.

We never even discussed playing another game. I would've at least considered it, in part because I don't think John has learned two key lessons that makes this game fun - he's still leaving holes in his defenses and he still steams his carriers around without the slightest idea where Allied carriers are (no detectin for weeks at a time). That means there are holes to be exploited, which is actually a great deal of fun. I enjoy conceiving, planning, and implementing the huge invasions that go deep.

I think I would've considered playing another but I might've also opted out. I know that some of the things I do (4EB and Death Star) irritate John. And some of the things he does irritate me (tipping me off to what happens when he sends the next turn and crowing when something good happens).

He and I have become good friends but in many ways we are probably incompatible as opponents.

For awhile, I think I'll concentrate on the game with Obvert while giving thought to "what's next."


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/6/2018 5:37:10 PM >

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Post #: 13397
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 5:48:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John sent this email the day after Christmas. I posted it then but want to post it again with a few things highlighted:

You wanted the land war in Asia. It has taken me FOREVER to spread you out enough to give my Imperial Army a chance. Well…buddy…lets go! Here is the war in China and Korea. It is simple. Beat the Imperial Army here and you win the war.

Your Fleet is a long-assed ways away and I THINK I can beat you in the air…perhaps…more like give you a bloody nose.

Course everything is still humming along in the Home Islands economy…

We’ve got fightin’ attitude right now.

This is an example of what I deal with pretty commonly. He lets his excitement get oughta hand sometimes. When I received this email, I wanted to reply in kind but of course elected not to. Mainly, I marveled at his sense that he somehow controlled the current disposition of the Allied army, "getting it spread out." Secondly, I was pretty darned sure that my fleet wasn't too far away to handle things, especially since CVE Death Star remained in the Yellow Sea. He'd had no detection on it for weeks, I think.

I was nearly positive that his counteroffensive in China posed no meaningful threat to anything I deem vital. I was also confident in Korea, though there I had a somewhat great concern that he might just have a chance at overwhelming the blocking hexes and then besieging Gunzan. You'll recall that I thought he'd have to move fast to get to Gunzan before Death Star returned and that I thought he wasn't doing so - that he was spending a bit too much time dealing with the blocking hexes in an inefficient manner.

But if he felt like the outcome of the land war in Korea would determine the game, I think the returns are beginning to come in.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13398
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 6:17:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		And I just came across this post by John in a main-page forum about re-sizing:

Dan will reach autovictory in our horrifically imbalanced Mod PRIOR to real life. This is being done DESPITE the changes in the complete outrageousness of RA 5.0 (about 20 Mod iterations ago and way too far favoring the Japanese) AND my complete defeat of two Allied Field Armies in 1943/1944.

The Allies ARE destined to win no matter what. To deny this is idiotic. It is simple truth.

The question for JFB is how well can one do compared to Real Life. That's it. Did you follow the Code of Bushido? If so, you fought the good fight and, hopefully, have learned more to take into your next match. I know I have. Dan and others have taught great lessons over the last five years of life. CHEERS to all of them for the lessons, insight, and education.

He's wrong. I can thing of a number of IJ players who could've stepped in for Japan around summer of '43 and made it very difficult for the Allies.

He acknowledges here that I'm way ahead of the historic timetable....but attributes that entirely to game balance issues rather than his play or my play. He's never going to recognize what's happened in this game.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13399
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 8:09:30 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

And I just came across this post by John in a main-page forum about re-sizing:

Dan will reach autovictory in our horrifically imbalanced Mod PRIOR to real life. This is being done DESPITE the changes in the complete outrageousness of RA 5.0 (about 20 Mod iterations ago and way too far favoring the Japanese) AND my complete defeat of two Allied Field Armies in 1943/1944.

The Allies ARE destined to win no matter what. To deny this is idiotic. It is simple truth.

The question for JFB is how well can one do compared to Real Life. That's it. Did you follow the Code of Bushido? If so, you fought the good fight and, hopefully, have learned more to take into your next match. I know I have. Dan and others have taught great lessons over the last five years of life. CHEERS to all of them for the lessons, insight, and education.

He's wrong. I can thing of a number of IJ players who could've stepped in for Japan around summer of '43 and made it very difficult for the Allies.

He acknowledges here that I'm way ahead of the historic timetable....but attributes that entirely to game balance issues rather than his play or my play. He's never going to recognize what's happened in this game.




One of the brain's main functions is to protect itself. rationalization is one protection mechanisim ... to grow as a person one has to overcome these things or we continue to make the same mistakes .


_____________________________

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 13400
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 9:31:14 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		I saw John's post and luckily I was between sips of coffee. I decided to let you and he post your viewpoints and discuss it and decided not to comment. Even though I've read your AAR for a while I'm not nearly so close to your game and might unintentionally get his defenses up and impede such a discussion.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 9:54:28 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I saw John's post and luckily I was between sips of coffee. I decided to let you and he post your viewpoints and discuss it and decided not to comment. Even though I've read your AAR for a while I'm not nearly so close to your game and might unintentionally get his defenses up and impede such a discussion.

quote:

I saw John's post and luckily I was between sips of coffee. I decided to let you and he post your viewpoints and discuss it and decided not to comment. Even though I've read your AAR for a while I'm not nearly so close to your game and might unintentionally get his defenses up and impede such a discussion.


Just going to keep my powder dry until the game ends. John lost (yes, lost...by any measure)because his interior defenses were soft and he did not use his carriers to oppose any of 5 major invasion (Banda Sea, Luzon, Formosa, China, Korea). Maybe he loses any or all of those battles but he never even tried. Weird but he just didn't seem to want to get the paint scratched on his CV's

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/6/2018 11:11:24 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
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From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

That's in character. Can't you see the Japanese naval commander telling the Emperor, "Hey, we still have our carriers!" The Emperor's most likely reply: "Those Allied dogs are in Korea and all over China and Formosa, you imbecile. You sat there and played with your hands and let them come. Now you want to claim some kind of victory?"


The German Navy in WWI could say that they never lost a modern battelship in action with the British. But ultimately, they failed to break the blockade that lost the war for Germany more than any other single thing. John preserved a fleet-in-being at the expense of the Phillipines, China, and probably Korea. You made your omelet; John wasn't willing to break the eggs.

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Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 1:38:36 AM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Yep, this game is not a good one to pose as an example of fine balance. I do believe that a solid Allied player has an advantage over a solid Japanese-if you are counting points. But this was not John's best game. I think he could have played a lot better. And you read him too well. You have really done a good job of fine tuning your Allied strategy and tactics. There are counters but your deep invasions are tough to match and generally work well. Frankly, you are getting too good as the Allies. I think you need to play one as Japan next time.

_____________________________

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Sigismund of Luxemburg

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Post #: 13404
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 3:12:14 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yep, this game is not a good one to pose as an example of fine balance. I do believe that a solid Allied player has an advantage over a solid Japanese-if you are counting points. But this was not John's best game. I think he could have played a lot better. And you read him too well. You have really done a good job of fine tuning your Allied strategy and tactics. There are counters but your deep invasions are tough to match and generally work well. Frankly, you are getting too good as the Allies. I think you need to play one as Japan next time.


I volunteer. We can even play Scen 2 with realistic R&D off.

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 13405
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 4:15:05 AM   
palioboy2

 

Posts: 190
Joined: 12/16/2009
From: Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

That's in character. Can't you see the Japanese naval commander telling the Emperor, "Hey, we still have our carriers!" The Emperor's most likely reply: "Those Allied dogs are in Korea and all over China and Formosa, you imbecile. You sat there and played with your hands and let them come. Now you want to claim some kind of victory?"


The German Navy in WWI could say that they never lost a modern battelship in action with the British. But ultimately, they failed to break the blockade that lost the war for Germany more than any other single thing. John preserved a fleet-in-being at the expense of the Phillipines, China, and probably Korea. You made your omelet; John wasn't willing to break the eggs.


I agree with your overall statement but the bolded isn't very true. John rarely had a fleet in being as CR almost always knew where it was and the limit of its capabilities. It would have been more troublesome hiding in some port then steaming around under CRs nav search.

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 13406
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 7:14:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		3/18/45

Korea: There is no longer an imminent threat to Gunzan. John has a major army in Korea and alot of air power, but his forces are too far away from Gunzan to arrive before the Herd does, and once the Herd arrives he has no chance anyway. This is key because I thought Gunzan was his last best chance to slow down the Allies significantly. Take Gunzan and I wouldn't have the massive airfield to engage in strategic bombing. It would take me weeks or possibly months to address this. Instead, in about six days, Gunzan will be a level 9 airfield with 2,000 aircraft and more than 1 million supply. Meanwhile, John continues to lose fighters in big numbers, which may have a positive effect on the strategic bombing campaing.

If Gunzan is indeed safe, I foresee only two ways John can materially extend the war now: the first would be to destroy the Herd before it reaches Gunzan (that's unlikely given the strenght of the escorts; and I'm moving my carriers to support the Herd now that the ground situation in Korea seems stable.) The second is if he wins a big sea battle that has a materially positive effect for him in points, thus delaying auto victory. I think this is highly unlikely.

I guess there's a third way - if the Strategic Bombing campaign again is much less effective than I expect. We'll see soon.

But the Allies now have a lead of 56k and need 18k to win. Points are coming in larger numbers now as enemy armies get destroyed and as John feeds his airforce into the grinder at Gunzan. I think Strat Bombing will enhance these and lead to victory within the estimated window of late April to early May.






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Post #: 13407
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 8:50:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Allied victory level now "Major," for what that's worth (not much).

Allied lead is 56,000 on the nose.







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Post #: 13408
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 9:01:45 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline 		Looking at the map, I'm convinced that the correct decision for Japan is to completely withdraw from China once the Allies have the ability to supply the Chinese and concentrate their defense on Manchuria and especially Korea.

Granted, the loss of the major Chinese coastal cities is a serious blow to Japan, but now that you're south of Keijo everything in north is absolutely irrelevant to the fight and is going to wither on the vine for a few months before the Soviets sweep it away (if the garrison requirement doesn't drop before that).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13409
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2018 9:11:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm a little bit in the dark rearding John's capabilities in CHina and Korea. I think he's staggering in China and about to stagger in Korea. But for all I know there are vast resources for him to call forward. I don't think so, but I don't know (one of the Fog of War things I get to enjoy due to the fact that I haven't played as Japan).

I'm about to shift most of the Western Allied army units in northern China to Korea. I'll let the Chinese handle China with an assist from Allied bombers.

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