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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/29/2013 3:16:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/11/42

Bay of Bengal: Boise makes it to Colombo. Every ship damaged in the Battle of Assam that has been sent to Colombo or Capetown has made it. New Orleans will be ready for action in ten days - she will be the first of the big ships to come back online. In another nod towards John's shift to New Guinea, he must have transferred many of his subs, combat ships and carriers to NG immediately following the Battle of Assam. At that point, there hadn't been the slightest triggering event that I saw. Something must've triggered his alertness in a major way. I suspect it had something to do with a sudden a complete awareness of his vulnerability. Drat!

Burma: John's on the move now. He has an idea for corralling the lead Allied units in the forward hexes. I think the Allies will be fine long term (especially with 18th UK Div. enroute), but short term there is some defensive work to do. Thanks to crsutton for the hexside problem suggestion. I tried it and it seemed to work.

Pacific: Still lots of enemy shipping from Terapo to Horn Island to Milne Bay back to Rabaul. However, the SigInt bells haven't been going off nearly to the level that they did in the Aluetians six weeks back, nor is the base building going gangbusters yet. The American carriers are safely in a "hole" between Tasmania and New Zealand, where they'll hover awhile.

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1981
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/29/2013 6:40:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/12/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet except for medium-size air strikes (this time pretty effective) vs. Ramree.

Burma: The Japanese are shifting troops around. I think John is going to go on the offensive, somewhat. He'll probably prevail in open terrain, but he'll have a hard time pushing the Allies in jungle hexes. This is fine - I want to whittle down more IJA divisions prior to springing my little surprise with 18th UK Div. in a few weeks.

Pacific: SigInt that 4th Fleet is bound for Gasmata. Recon shows Meraukee empty. Naturally, that makes me think, "What might have been!" A fleet sub tangles with a massive oiler convoy seven AOs) near Kaeving. Cursor shows heading as NW as though this convoy had completed it's mission (refueling carriers) and was heading back to the DEI to pick up more. I think the Allies will begin loading amphibious TFs beginning tomorrow. This may be a ten-day process, but that dovetails nicely with my overall plan. John seems to be giving a bit more attention to NoPac, reconning Kodiak and Prince Rupert plus sighting a picket DD well to the west. I like this! In an effort to feed his appetite for concern, CVE Prince William to depart Seattle tonight. Eventually, she'll join up with two BBs coming north from Pearl. The Allies will spring a sizeable invasion armada south of the Aleutians in ten days or so.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1982
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/30/2013 12:55:24 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/13/42

Bay of Bengal: Total stand down by enemy forces today.

Burma: A pretty good day for the Allies. Both sides commit large groups of fighters and bombers over a hex containing an Aussie division and Japan's 2nd Tank Div. (roughed up a few weeks ago). Sweeps by Hurricanes, P-38F and P-40K really seem to get the best of the Tojo. Japanese bombers make it through to cause a fair bit of disruption to the Aussies, but waves of B-25s get unhindered access to the enemy tanks. The resulting IJ attack comes off at very low odds.

NoPac: An enemy combat TF of unknown strength is patrolling south of Kodiak. I'm not thinking it's a carrier raid, but I have to be careful what with CVE Prince William just out that way. Tons of Allied shipping around the Gulf of Alaska as I want to give John the impression of growing menace. Let's see what happens.

SoPac: First enemy recon of the game at Tahiti a few days ago, plus more recent at Fiji. I don't think John knows where my carriers are. I'm hoping his torn between SWPac and NoPac.

SWPac: 1st Marine Div. and a few other units begin loading - the first step towards the eventual invasion. This is gonna take some time. Both sides have units in the desert west of Cooktown (NE Oz). I think one of the Allied armored units will take vacant Coen tomorrow. PBYs moved north to Cooktown and report more enemy shipping at Lae, etc. Recon of Buna tomorrow. It does look like an IJA division has been posted to Horn Island. To me, that's a big commitment that says alot.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1983
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/30/2013 5:25:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/14/42

Bay of Bengal: Another total stand down by the enemy.

Burma: Allied LRCAP gets the best of enemy bombing raids targeting several Allied armies. Japan seems to be stretched pretty thin, judging by the fact that the hottest hexes are "standing on their own" without fresh reinforcements feeding in (to this point). For instance, 59th Div. and 2nd Tank Div. are both fairly depleted yet have been anchoring defenses for quite some time. It will be a few more days before I can gather my troops for the next assaults, which must coincide with the occasional turns where supply is full, but the Allies will resume the attack. It also seems like 4EB have managed to close Mandalay airfield. But John has others - Magwe, Prome, Rangoon that pretty much allow him to do what he needs to do.

Pacific: Still no "flood of SigInt" regarding New Guinea - John has reinforced strongly, but not on an epic scale yet. I still think it's fascinating that he would post a division at Horn Island. SigInt a few days back reported 5th Div. inbound to Horn or PM. That unit was posted at Cocos for a long time. Now SigInt reports that Cocos is garrisoned by 62nd Infantry Brigade. Three amphibious TFs are loading now for the New Guinea invasions. I think I will have them all loaded in about a week. At that point, I will stand down in SWPac to see if I can throw John off the scent. Feint TFs are currently on the move from Prince Rupert, Midway and SW Oz.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1984
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/30/2013 5:39:00 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

Still no "flood of SigInt" regarding New Guinea - John has reinforced strongly, but not on an epic scale yet. I still think it's fascinating that he would post a division at Horn Island. SigInt a few days back reported 5th Div. inbound to Horn or PM. That unit was posted at Cocos for a long time. Now SigInt reports that Cocos is garrisoned by 62nd Infantry Brigade. Three amphibious TFs are loading now for the New Guinea invasions. I think I will have them all loaded in about a week. At that point, I will stand down in SWPac to see if I can throw John off the scent. Feint TFs are currently on the move from Prince Rupert, Midway and SW Oz.


He fights up North, he counters you in the Central Pacific, he has lots of troops in Burma, he is no loading up in SW PAcific. He can't be everywhere, he has to be thin somewhere. You say he pulled a Division out of Cocos????????

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1985
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/30/2013 8:34:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Burma: The war here is very interesting. I'm just learning things many of you learned long ago. Decent Allied fighters perform very well on LRCAP and sweeps. I've always known they could do well fighting over their own bases, so my default was generally to keep them at home and let Japan bleed pilots. That's worked in this game, but now the Allies have such big aifields combined with the 2EB needed to pound some ground targets that I've begun to use my fighters away from home.

At present it also seems like the Japanese army is weak and the navy not present in big numbers (both of these could change, but I'm going on what I see at present).

These factors combine to give me hope that the Allies can punish Japan in Burma. But this makes it all the more important to open up a productive new theater. That will hopefully create a crisis that might prevent John from "ganging up" on Burma and also force him to use aircraft (especially the Zero and Oscar) that I can fight much more effectively.


(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1986
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/30/2013 9:06:08 PM   
Schlemiel

 

Posts: 154
Joined: 10/20/2011
Status: offline 		While I think another theater of operations is optimal, drawing all his ground forces to burma isn't necessarily a bad thing either. There are a fair number of AARs out there with most of the IJA in Burma, and it leaves the perimeter very thin, especially if a certain aggressive individual committed the KB in the wrong way in a panic in 1943. The right series of invasions into lower Burma might end up cutting off huge chunks of the IJA in 1943, especially since RA doesn't have the extra Scenario 2 divisions afaik. I don't imagine it will come to that, but you are in excellent position overall to take advantage of whatever he does. I think either of you would love just a couple more divisions in Burma at the moment to help tip the balance.

In fact, in his place, as a non-IJA player, I'd abandon the oil at Magwe within a few months (which sucks, economically, though it's perhaps early enough to cancel projects to make up that HI gap) and dig in at Rangoon jungle triangle line. The hope there would be to get you to commit much of your land reserves here to try to break through while I strengthened my lines elsewhere. It would require less force commitment to maintain that more narrow line and allow better rotation. Obviously, this is a losing proposition for the IJA in 1942, but from what I gather in other aars, that line would be tough to break until the 1944 upgrades, or with a tremendous concentration of armor and heavy units at the two higher stack hexes. That said, that would be out of character for what John has decided so far in this game.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1987
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/31/2013 3:20:58 AM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		Horn Island, IMO, is pretty underrated in importance. I personally think it's one of the most important bases on the map early-on. Not sure how others feel, but as an atoll it's a real bear to take, and it plugs the Torres Strait, for the most part.

The only problem from Japan's perspective is it's vulnerability to shore bombardment

_____________________________


(in reply to Schlemiel)
Post #: 1988
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/31/2013 2:17:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/15/42

Horn Island: Brad, I agree that Horn Island is an important hex. My comments about the place are largely due to the fact that John suddenly diverted a division to the island, just as I was preparing to invade. It was great timing for him, but I also am looking for chances to gang up on Japanese divisions. Horn Island, due to it's position, might give me that opporunity.

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. It looks like Allied flak at Ramree is strong enough to seriously suppress enemy bombing accuracy. A medium-sized raid today didn't do any damage, so that the field is 100% operational and airfield building commenced for the first time in more than a month. To seriously damage the field, John would have to use many more bombers, and currently they are largely devoted to the land campaign.

Burma: Once again, Allied sweeps really messed up Tojo CAP over an exposed enemy infantry unit in the plains. My tally showed 40 Tojos downed in a-2-a compared to less than a dozen Allied fighters (mostly Hurricanes). Allied 2EB then ganged up the exposed division (48th, which was badly treated many weeks ago, so it shouldn't be at full strength). Tomorrow, the Allies will try the same air strategy followed by a deliberate attack by 6th Oz Division and 754 Armored Brigade.

Pacific: The situation "down south" is not clear. John is not heavily reconning (using subs, Glens, etc.) the places it would seem natural for him to sniff - Hobart, Sydney, Melbourne. He's kinda gone quiet. I'm wondering if he's already wondering if the Allies aren't coming for New Guinea? That would be too good to be true. I'm continuing to work on the NoPac and Port Headland feints. Soon, amphibious TFs will leave port to rendezvous in the "dark hole" west of New Zealand. I think D-Day could be in roughly 20 to 25 days.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1989
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/31/2013 2:28:09 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		Dan, i'd be a bit cautious about what you get from the sign-in reports. I usually give to a convoy a particular destination, knowing QBall is gonna see it, but I set waypoints to the real destination, clearing them just when i'm about to reach the waypoint (which is the real destination). Often this is done using extreme opposites of the map.
Something like: 15th Division aboard Maru moving to Horn Island, while in reality I had set a waypoint at Singapore, where I really want it to go.

Or, another possible thing to do is to load a whole division, then pick up just the single Maru that has the parent unit and send it somewhere, while the bulk of the division is moving towards the other side of the world

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1990
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/31/2013 2:31:03 PM   
GreyJoy


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Joined: 3/18/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Horn Island, IMO, is pretty underrated in importance. I personally think it's one of the most important bases on the map early-on. Not sure how others feel, but as an atoll it's a real bear to take, and it plugs the Torres Strait, for the most part.

The only problem from Japan's perspective is it's vulnerability to shore bombardment


Yes, it's vital for Japan, but once the allies dominate the NW coast of Oz (saying from cooktown to Portland roads) it cannot be held...it's isolated and cannot be supplied without exposition your slow convoys to naval and air raids that you cannot counter... So yes, it's valuable, but you need to have some supporting bases in order to make it worth the investment of 40,000 troops!

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 1991
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/31/2013 2:31:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah, I'm familiar with that strategy. But SigInt is important, especially when combined with other sources. In this case, recon now shows Horn Island with 21k troops. I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd bet my house that there's a division posted there.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1992
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/31/2013 2:33:37 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I'm familiar with that strategy. But SigInt is important, especially when combined with other sources. In this case, recon now shows Horn Island with 21k troops. I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd bet my house that there's a division posted there.


Yes, 21,000 troops means clearly a division plus some more support troops (probably a naval base force - which is more or less 3500 men - and some minor units - SNLFs etc)

For a garrison of 25,000 troops I normally have 2 BFs, 1 division, a couple of AA units and a Artillery regiment with an HQ (Air, naval or land)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1993
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/2/2013 12:32:47 AM   
artuitus_slith

 

Posts: 141
Joined: 11/22/2009
Status: offline 		I feel the opposite, Horn Island is an over-rated base. It is easily by-passed and isolated by the allies, turning it into a training base for allied fighters/bombers. Horn Island is important for the Japanese player, but not so much for the Allies. Since you know he has a division there I'd let him stay there, take PM and Milne Bay+ geraldton (spellilng?) and let him try to force evacuate it. I'm assuming if you are looking for offensive moves you already control Cairns, Cooktown etc? If so Horn isn't worth the effort IMO. Bombard it with cruisers/battleships, bomb it from the air, and LRCAP it to stop flow of supplies in/troops out and be done with it. Heck you could even train up the allied surface fleet a bit by constant bombardments if you wanted, in addition to training bombers and fighters. And if he tries to force supply/evacuate, you will have a battle on very favorable terms to atrit his navy and airforces, which is something you wanted anyways.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1994
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/2/2013 12:15:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet, except SigInt yesterday reported Imperial Guards at Port Blair. That unit was hurt badly at Singapore early in the war. LIke Horn Island, PB is a forward and isolated outpost for precious Japanese divisions. The advantage is that the unit solidifies an important base. The disadvantage is the the unit is either exposed (if the Allies attack) or of little use (if the Allies ignore). I think keeping division-level units a bit further back with the option of inserting them when an invasion is coming might be a better tactic. I'm not coming for PB - at least any time in the next six to nine months - so I'm glad to see IG Div. there rather than in Burma.

Burma: 48th Div. left the hex where the Allies were going to attack today, thus nixing the bombing missions targeting it. 48th joined 59th Div. in the hex the includes a pretty decent Allied army (including 41st USA Div.). The Allies will bomb tomorrow and move forward the two units originally slated to attack. Over on the coastal road, IJA 21st Div. engaged in a very low odds deliberate attack against two UK brigades and American tanks. The Japanese division suffered about 120 disabled squads. And Indian divisiion is one hex away - I'll await its arrival before trying to further whittle this IJA div.

Pacific: The NoPac feint TFs are slowly moving into place. Down south, the amphibious TFs are beginning to leave port for the staging area in the Tasman Sea. The Allies are about to "go dark" for a week to see if John takes the bait that western Oz or NoPac is the actual target. I don't think John has any info about the location of the American carriers.

(in reply to artuitus_slith)
Post #: 1995
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/2/2013 4:34:39 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Another low odds Jap attack in Burma? Is he failing to Recon the hex first, so he doesn't know what is there until he attacks? Never does a bombardment recon? This is the first AAR where I have seen the IJA divisions get so badly trashed so early in the war!
Credit where due - some of it has to be from your preparation of logistics and bringing in the best allied units available. Well done!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1996
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/2/2013 8:07:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/17/42

Bay of Bengal: No enemy activity. Ramree airfield at 5.35. CA New Orleans will be ready at Colombo in four days.

Burma: Both sides choose to sweep and LRCAP the same hex - the one with 41st USA Div. vs. 59th and 48th IJA Divs. This time the Japanese came out on top, by a score of 64 downed Allied aircraft vs. 32 for Japan. No ground attacks as the Allies continue to await reinforcements moving up. To answer BBFanboy's question about yesterday's low-odds IJA attack, John was fully aware of the raw AVs in the hex (due to repeated Allied bombardments). I'm guessing that he might have thought the Allies were low on supply since I hadn't tried a deliberate attack.

NoPac: A very large "feint TF" is now well west of Vancouver Island. I hope to spring this on John's consciousness south of Adak Island in perhaps seven to nine days.

SoPac: The lead amphibious TF is 13 hexes out of port. No signs of detection for this TF or the USN carriers. The key will be to get them undetected into the "dark hole" west of New Zealand, where they'll "hover" until the green light comes on for the invasion. Meantime, a large "feint TF" is gathering south of Perth and will appear to menace Port Headland at roughly the same time as the NoPac feint. I'm also going to run a DD TF out to Cocos Island. Finally, I'm trying to pull together a feint that I can move from Ceylon towards Port Blair. Despite the flurry of IJ activity around the target hexes - Horn Island, Merauke, Terapo, PM and Milne Bay, the activity level hasn't reached nearly the point that it did prior to scrubbing the Aluetians mission. No recent base buidling activity or SigInt.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1997
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 12:11:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/18/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. No raids on Ramree as the enemy airforce is busy elsewhere.

Burma: IJA 59 and 46 Divs. shock attack the Allied army spearheaded by 41st USA Div. Allies supply is very low and the attack is preceeded by heavy enemy bombing raids. The attack comes off at 4:1, results in little destruction, and much higher disablement (190 squads) for Japan. I don't think John can attack tomorrow, but 754 Armored arrives (and possibly an American tank unit). Supply is the key now. If my units don't draw, they don't stand a chance. If they do, the odds might flip. An Aussie div. is about three days away.

NoPac: Enemy patrols picked up a picket USN DD far north of Kure Island. The main "feint" armada is far, far to the east.

SWPac: Patrols picked up a dozen or so enemy TFs from Merauke (SigIn reports an engineer unit inbound) to PM to the Bismark Sea and Buna. Lots of enemy activity, but I feel pretty confident I can misdirect John when the time comes (which will be about a week). An Aussie armored unit retakes vacant Normanton on the Gulf of Carpenteria. USN carriers seem to have made it to "black hole" status - steaming in circles without drawing unwanted attention.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1998
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 4:39:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/19/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. New Orleans will be ready in two days. No enemy raids on Ramree (as all IJ aircraft are engaged in a ground bombing campaign).

Burma: Thwack! A reinforced IJ army knocks back the Allied army, which suffers heavy losses. The Japanese army includes 59, 48 and newly arrived 16 divisions. Following a concerted bombing campaign, these units (plus tanks) shock attack the low-supply Allied units, including 41st USA Div., 754 Tanks, and a Brit brigade. The results aren't pretty: The Allies lose 149 combat squads and 286 non-combat (plus a fair number of engineers, guns and vehicles). The Japanese only lose 13 combat squads, but do suffer 267 disabled (to 17 for the Allies), so a new round of attrition begins. The Allies retreated well, joining two Aussie divisions. This newly combined force will now come under heavy attack. I'll see if my airforce can help out, but it's going to be tough. Over in the jungle, a newly arrived Indian division will join with two Brit brigades plus American tanks in attacking 21st IJA Div. in the jungle. I hope the American 2EB will cooperate ahead of the attack. The best news on the day is confrimation that at least seven IJ divisions are committed on the front lines: 12, 16, 21, 33, 48, 59 and 2nd Tanks. I'm pretty sure several more are nearby. That's a huge concentration of force. 18th UK Div. will be a big help when it arrives in a few weeks, but a bigger question: Can the Allies take advantage elsehwere?

Pacific: More Allied ships are on the move in the preliminary positioning of both "feint" and "real" elements. Guestimate of D-Day New Guinea: 21 to 28 days. (The effort to draw John's attention elsewhere - I mean places other than Burma - will really ramp up in about 7 to 10 days.) No sigsn of detection of major Allied forces, including the USN carriers.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1999
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 5:45:20 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

The best news on the day is confrimation that at least seven IJ divisions are committed on the front lines: 12, 16, 21, 33, 48, 59 and 2nd Tanks.


How many divisions do you have committed to Burma?

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2000
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 6:06:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		One American, one British, two Australian, two Indian. Of these, only one Indian and both Aussie are in decent shape.

18th UK is on the way, but traveling slowly through the jungle. She won't become involved for at least two or three weeks.

This is all very good. (That's my story, and I'm sticking too it!)

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2001
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 6:45:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/20/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. I always lead with this theater, because I think it's the single most critical area on the map. Everything I'm doing depends on Ramree and Akyab - and to a lesser extent Cox's, Chittagong and Colombo. I still fear powerful enemy raids that might show up anywhere at any time, but I no longer have any real fears about a serious enemy campaign to take any of these.

Burma: Judging by John's email comments, he's intent on giving similar treatment to the combined Allied army in the plains. Meanwhile, in the jungle, an Allied attack comes off 1:1 and does modest damage - neither side loses any squads to speak of; the 21st IJA Div. suffers about 65 disablements to about 50 for the Allies. Since 21st Div. suffered 160 disabled in its own attack a few days back, I think it might be vulnerable. The Allies will shock attack tomorrow, preceded by all 2EB targeting this hex. I think John will contest vigorously in the air and I know he's moving troops forward to reinforce (I hope they don't arrive tomorrow). Whether or not the Allies take the hex isn't the issue; the real issue is whether the Allies can rough up another IJA division.

Pacific: All is calm; all is bright.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2002
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 7:18:51 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Whether or not the Allies take the hex isn't the issue; the real issue is whether the Allies can rough up another IJA division.


Oh? For a guy that doesn't do "body counts", you're doing a passable job here, Dan. Your last several posts have identified numbers of Allied:Japanese squads disrupted / destroyed. I thought this sort of body count was beneath you?

Is your goal here attritional ground-based warfare in Burma for the Allies (in 1942)? May I suggest you review:

1. Commonwealth infantry squads (1942) available monthly.
2. Indian infantry squads available monthly.
3. IJA infantry squads available monthly.
4. Supply flow to respective (Japanese versus Allied) combat-engaged units in Burma. Which is more tenable at this time?
5. Ability of combatants to recover disabled elements and re-engage with 'rested' or replaced units in theatre.

I propose that your 2EBs, limited (and 'brittle') commonwealth / British / Indian IDs and supply situation are putting you at a disadvantage here in all five areas at this time. That's fine if your strategic picture is to tie him up at all costs, even at a theater-wide negative exchange. It's worth revisiting if your goal was tactical to secure Burma in 1942 at a positive exchange.

Analogy: In the investment field, there are (short-term) "trades" (sometimes several times a day) that take advantage of the movement of equities. Then there are "investments"-things that have timelines of months to years. The admonishment in the investment community is, "don't let your trades turn into investments". In other words, traders get stuck on the wrong side of a trade and, rather than sell at a loss, sit on equities much longer than they otherwise intended. All the while waiting (and waiting) for the equity to appreciate again (so that they can liquidate their position at a lesser loss). In the meantime, their assets are tied up awaiting the market swing that can vindicate their position.

So-is Burma a 'trade' or an 'investment', Dan? If an investment, then the daily gyrations of the market (your troop disablements / squads destroyed) are irrelevant, provided the underlying equity (theatre presence) doesn't go to zero. If this is a trade for you, what's your timeline and definition for success? Is there anything on the horizon that would reduce your support to feed more Allied troops into the meatgrinder?

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2003
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 7:36:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My goal from the beginning has been to embroil Japan in a costly and destructive campaign in Burma. I figured the going would be tough - in part because of conditions I knew, in part because of conditions I didn't know and wasn't sure how they would work (supply draw during monsoon, for instance). I don't know how many divisions John has committed to Burma - I know at least seven, and I'd guess perhaps ten. From my perspective, this is utter success.

I am not big into body counts, except as they help illustrate overall rates of attrition and steps toward achieving an ultimate goal. So, I'm not offering these as evidence of "I won (or lost) this battle" but rather "here's how the overall campaign in Burma is progressing (or regressing).

I am very aware of the tacitcal goings on in Burma, but my focus is on strategic. I am 100% happy with that.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2004
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 10:15:54 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		The issue I see with being pleased he's committed so many divisions is that if those divisions cripple your fighting ability here for the foreseeable future, and force you to invest more troops, it doesn't look so good anymore. This is a mod where he has troops to burn. The lack of need to invest in several channels of supply waste the IJ usually expends on accelerating airframes and ships simply isn't necessary in this mod. Therefore he probably has more supply than he knows what to do with, virtually infinite armament pools and still gets toys 6-10 months early and in profusion.

It's my view that body counts, plane losses and other simple calculations of daily measurement do help to understand the larger strategic picture, but only if that whole picture is brought into perspective. Crushing Commenwealth units makes it unfeasible to mount a continuing campaign in the area due to the low replacement rates. In short, your losses hurt much more than his with these units. Everything costs something for Japan, but if the exchange is for more time then it's a valid trade.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2005
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 10:46:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My understanding of this mod is that it gives Japan lots of relatively small infantry units, but no extra divisions. If that is true, Japan should be stretched thin by now. John's division-level units have taken beatings from the start of the war.

To me, prodding John to commit so many divisions to Burma is a victory no matter what happens on the battlefield. He's going to need those troops and they're a long way from anywhere. In the meantime, my Burma army is going to take its lumps, but long term it won't matter as Japan remains tied down and is attrited by weather, combat, and air attack.

So, no matter what happens in the next four to six weeks, the Allies have already achieved a magnificent victory in Burma. I know many players will disagree, but that's my assessment.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/3/2013 10:47:21 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2006
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 10:55:45 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Well, the Allies will win. That is true. 'When?' is the question.

< Message edited by obvert -- 6/3/2013 11:19:11 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2007
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/3/2013 11:32:07 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		any thoughts to rotating in more American divisions with higher replacement rates and perhaps rotating the Aussies out to rest up for offensives elsewhere? I know they are your best units but this is starting to look like a grind. You should have some Army divisions coming on soon. You can't really win an attrition war on planes or with Commonwealth troops

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2008
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 2:58:06 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/21/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. In the past week, both Akyab and Cox's airfields went to level seven. Ramree is at 5.6.

Burma: The Allied shock attack vs. 21st IJA Div. in the jungle comes off at 1:1 and does little damage to either side. The Allied units want to attack again; I"m going to let them since fatigue and disruption are low. The bombers aren't doing any good in the jungle terrain, however, so I'm going to target 33rd IJA Div., which is in the open. To answer John's question, yes, more American units are on the way, but that's going to be a long-term solution. In the meantime, my guys will have to stay and fight. Yes, they're going to take a beating, but the Allies will get in licks of their own.

Pacific: Tons of IJ activity around New Guinea, with TFs dotting the map from Horn Island to Tagula Island. John is reinforcing strongly. No sign of his carriers or combat ships, though. My two big "feint" armadas in NoPac are in position. They'll loiter briefly until the time is "right" - perhaps one week.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 2009
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 10:44:58 AM   
Kereguelen


Posts: 1829
Joined: 5/13/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/21/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. In the past week, both Akyab and Cox's airfields went to level seven. Ramree is at 5.6.

Burma: The Allied shock attack vs. 21st IJA Div. in the jungle comes off at 1:1 and does little damage to either side. The Allied units want to attack again; I"m going to let them since fatigue and disruption are low. The bombers aren't doing any good in the jungle terrain, however, so I'm going to target 33rd IJA Div., which is in the open. To answer John's question, yes, more American units are on the way, but that's going to be a long-term solution. In the meantime, my guys will have to stay and fight. Yes, they're going to take a beating, but the Allies will get in licks of their own.

Pacific: Tons of IJ activity around New Guinea, with TFs dotting the map from Horn Island to Tagula Island. John is reinforcing strongly. No sign of his carriers or combat ships, though. My two big "feint" armadas in NoPac are in position. They'll loiter briefly until the time is "right" - perhaps one week.



I don't think that your NoPac "feint" will be credible with the beginning of winter in the Northern Cold Zone on November, 1st.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2010
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