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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 11:02:53 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Actually, John might bite just because it is a new "shiny" that will distract his attention....he's fully committed in Burma right now, which is both a positive & negative....his keeps wanting to land some "knock-out" punch, but I don't think he realizes that ground forces are the one thing the allies get in over-abundance, which only getting better as time wears on (lots more firepower), which will roll right over him if he's not extremely careful.

As long as he can concentrate on one axis, he seems to be fine, but having to deal with multiple trouble spots simultaneously doesn't strike me as one of his strong points.

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Post #: 2011
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 12:05:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Cold Zone winter doesn't begin until December 1. (I hope John knows that.)

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Post #: 2012
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 12:19:21 PM   
Kereguelen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cold Zone winter doesn't begin until December 1. (I hope John knows that.)


November 1 as per 12.0 of the Manual.

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Post #: 2013
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 12:21:23 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cold Zone winter doesn't begin until December 1. (I hope John knows that.)


Has this changed?






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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2014
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 1:33:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, I'll be dogged. I thought it was December 1. Perhaps that's a lingering misconception that dates to my WitP match vs. John III, when I invaded Hokkaido in early December. :)

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Post #: 2015
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 1:50:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/22/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. New Orleans is back in operation. Devonshire will be ready in five days. CL Mauritius is about four days out of Colombo, the 2nd-to-last of the damaged ships needing yard time. (Ramilles, with 5 SYS and 51 FLT damage, is at Chittagong and will head for the yards as soon as SYS goes to 0).

Burma: John targeted massed Tojo sweeps to cover 21st IJA Div., but I diverted all my aircraft to the open terrain to hit 33rd Div. There were hundreds of Tojos, so I'm fortunate to avoid that buzz-saw, but John will guess right soon. Will he think I"ll move to a new target tomorrow, or will he move the Tojos to 33rd? I'm leaning towards the former, but I haven't made a final decision. My 2EB - including a bunch of B-25s - got free shots at 33rd Div., but didn't seem to inflict as much damage as I had hoped. The Allied shock attack vs. 21 Div. came off at 1:2 and caused light destruction and just moderate disablement to the Japanese. The Allies will deliberate attack tomorrow - fatigue and disruption are higher now, so I don't have much hope, but I want to try before enemy reinforcements arrrive.

NoPac: The two big feint groups are moving to a rendezvous hex SE of Adak. Since John probably knows when winter sets in better than I do (*ack*), he'll naturally wonder if I'm timing something to come in just prior to winter. I'll give him something to ponder.

SWPac: The bulk of my amphibious TFs are in the "Black Hole" now, steaming slowly in circles while awaiting the all-clear to move into New Guinea. No signs of enemy carriers or combat ships. Plenty of activity at the targeted bases, but I doubt it's enough to stand up to the massive forces targeted to each of the key bases. Port Moresby, for instance, gets two divisions: 1st Marine and Americal, plus a host of tanks.

37

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Post #: 2016
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 3:39:41 PM   
Lomri

 

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My rule of thumb is not to have LCUs in clear hexes if I don't have air superiority or at least parity over that particular hex. Sustained air bombing will put your units in such bad disruption (and fatigue) that they'll be easier to retreat (and they won't have a defensive hex rating). In my game pushing pushing through Southeast Asia towards Hanoi in 1943 I'm leaving a lot of really beaten up Indian and British Divs behind because I don't have the pools to fill them up. And I haven't had all that many retreated units either, just lots of fighting against units in strong defensive terrain. The retreating is bad because of the excessive destroyed vs disabled. Disabled heal, destroyed suck your pools dry.

I drool over enemy units in clear hexes where I have air supremacy.

Anyhow, glad you have US troops on the way. They will be easier to keep healthy.

One thing that amuses me about your AARs is how perpetually enthusiastic you are. Any set back is seen as a positive because the enemy had to focus enough attention in some spot in order to give you a set back. With this outlook I think you would be a very fun Japanese AAR to read - you should enlist some help on the economy for the next game and give it a shot.

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Post #: 2017
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 3:44:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Japan doesn't have control of the air over Burma. At worst, it's a draw. One measure of the air war is that Japan has now lost roughly 2,000 more aircraft than the Allies. I think the last time I mentioned the differential several months ago, the difference was about 1700. (This isn't given as a "body count," but rather as evidence that the air war continues to trend in favor of the Allies.)

As for my optimism, that's because the Allies have done very well in the game to date. Out of all the games of AE and WitP that I've played, I think this is the second best position I've been in as of October 1942.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/4/2013 3:45:34 PM >

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Post #: 2018
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 4:59:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/23/42

Burma Theater: I'm hazarding a guess that some casual readers have dropped in of late - perhaps readers that are following John's AAR closely, but only checking in here infrequently. Those readers wouldn't be familiar with the overall Allied plan in Burma. Going back to March, the plan has been to provoke an all-out war in Burma, with the Allies seizing the jungle, Ramree Island, and building big airfields to help in the war. The hope was to draw John's full attention in the air, at sea, and on the ground. Those seeing just the recent ground campaign might think the Japanese were doing well, but to me (and those patient enough to carefully follow this AAR), everything is proceeding exceedingly well. The Allies have held their own (or better) in the air war. John has committed his navy in fits and starts that culminated with the decisive Battle of Assam a month ago (a decisive Allied victory). And, on the ground, the vortex has sucked in at least eight IJA divisions (SigInt confirmed 4th Div. is at Rangoon) and probably several more.

Burma Theater Today: Massed Tojo sweeps of Akyab, where I had only modest CAP, overwhelmed the CAP. Fortunately, John didn't have any strike aircraft sortie. I had stood down most of my CAP (and hence moved most of my ships to Chittagong) in order to provide LRCAP and sweeps to cover my bombers, which again went in against 33rd Div. and 2nd Tank Div., again with little opposition. This time the bombers seemed much more effective. Tomorrow, a beefed up CAP returns to Akyab while the bombers will divert, some hitting IJ units way up near Katha while others will target the 16, 48, 59 divs. stack.

NoPac: The feinting TFs continue to converge SE of Adak. I'm aware that the KB could pounce and detroy a heckuva lot of shipping (mostly xAKs, but some good stuff too includeing a BB and a CVE). I'm willing to chance it because the info alone would make the sacrifice worthwile.

SWPac: All amphibious TFs, combat TFs, and the USN CVs are in position. The green light will come fairly soon - no more than 14 days, perhaps less if KB shows up far away. No sign of KB or enemy combat ships. Reports that airfield at Gove Island, which I am going to target, goes to level one. I'm sure that's an engineer unit with perhaps an SNLF. The Allies have two RCT targeting this base, so that should be fine.

42






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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/4/2013 5:00:47 PM >

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Post #: 2019
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 6:06:57 PM   
zuluhour


Posts: 5244
Joined: 1/20/2011
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		I would'nt mind seeing ship losses, CL-CV maybe? I consider your air totals very solid, especially with so many front line fighters over Burma. I hope I can learn something from you when it comes to piling up IJN shipping though. It has crossed my mind more than once that I need to improve in this area.

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Post #: 2020
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 6:14:05 PM   
Lomri

 

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I've been following along - but I don't read the othersides AAR. My comment on air supremacy came from the fact that the divs that just got routed were under heavy air bombing. Don't get me wrong I'm impressed with the grounds you've made and the air loss ratio - and certainly a vet of the engine such as yourself has nothing to learn from a newb like me. I just felt like feeding the peanut gallery on squad pools and such.

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Post #: 2021
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 6:20:26 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Are you concerned about disruption on your NG invasion units piling up from the long time at sea?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 6:32:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Cribbit, yes, disruption will be a factor. But this is one of the necessary compromises we all make - I need my ships loaded and at "Point Luck" so that I can pull the trigger at the propitious moment. I have so many gazillion troops that I couldn't load them efficiently anyhow - it took a good ten days, so keeping them ashore while awaiting a green light risked missing a window of opportunity by a week or ten days.

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Post #: 2023
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 6:43:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The list of IJN capital ships sunk.

Note: I don't think the BB or the CV went under. I do think the CA list is accurate.

Note 2: The Japanese have also lost some 33 destroyers - many of these modern (13-pointers and 10-pointers).




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Post #: 2024
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 6:45:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		List of Allied ships sunk.

Note: In addition, the Allies have lost 39 destroyers. Only two of these were worth more than six points: DD Selfridge (7 points) and La Triomphant (11 points). So, in terms of cruisers and destroyers, the Allies have faired particularly well against Japan to this point in the game.




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Post #: 2025
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 7:04:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If John has ten (or more???) divisions in Burma, that's a huge percentage of his fighting force. Ordinarly, that would be the kind of force you might see committed to India or Australia in March '42 in an major offensive push. When a boxer is caught off balance leaning too far to his right, a strong left hook can be devastating. I think John's leaning too far to his right. The question thus becomes whether the Allies are prepared to administer a strong blow to his left.

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Post #: 2026
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 7:18:12 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The question thus becomes whether the Allies are prepared to administer a strong blow to his left.


Well? [taps foot...looks at watch...taps foot...looks at watch]

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Post #: 2027
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 7:19:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Rome wasn't burned in a day!

A stitch in time saves haste!

Act in curiosity, repent by killing cats!

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Post #: 2028
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 7:38:22 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
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Status: offline 		None are so impatient as those who eat for free!

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Post #: 2029
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 7:56:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		None are so ungrateful as indigent folks who receive free counsel appointed by the court!

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Post #: 2030
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 8:40:13 PM   
zuluhour


Posts: 5244
Joined: 1/20/2011
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Thanks for the post, I've watched the air and ground war so closely, I lost track of the naval actions. I was pretty sure you had both hung on to the flatops.

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Post #: 2031
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/4/2013 9:50:50 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Thanks for the post, I've watched the air and ground war so closely, I lost track of the naval actions. I was pretty sure you had both hung on to the flatops.

Not only hung onto them, but given them a couple of new coats of paint, some nice AA detailing, and refurbishment of most of the decorative air units!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 12:16:20 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		CR, let's play out the boxing analogy, because it does seem John is leaning right in Burma. Assume your NG invasions come off successfully, with acceptable losses. What next? How will you exploit the hard left? Does success in NG, if it happens, at all change your overall strategic plan for a Nimitz style CENPAC campaign?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 12:34:48 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I suppose its common for all of us players to begin a game with certain strategic notions. Then, as the game develops, we modify our strategies to suit the circumstances. That's certainly the case here. If the Allied move on New Guinea is a big success, John will find himself with a two-front war. Time of crisis generally require quick and decisive decisions to meet the crisis, which in turn can yield mistakes and new opportunities. So, if New Guinea succeeds, I'll look for chances wherever they might be. I'm still looking at a CenPac strategy, though, and have troops prepping both at Pearl Harbor and West Coast.

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Post #: 2034
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 1:07:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/24/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. CL Mauritius is two days away from Colombo. Ramree airfield at 5.72. SigInt of more IJ troops inbound (this a base force going to Moulmein).

Burma: Two large Tojo sweeps of Akyab meet the full contingent of Allied CAP, the Allies winning the day. Weather stood down alot of bombers for both sides, as a few Helen raids hit small Allied units in the far north jungle and some B-25s hit 16th Div. over near Magwe. Tomorrow, Allied CAP remains mostly at Akyab while the bombers target what appears to be a vulnerable ground unit near Mandalay.

NoPac: DD Helm prods enemy detection south of Attu. More flanker DDs will approach the Aluetians from the south tomorrow. Three "feint amphibious TFs" are spread apart and slowly approaching from the same direction.

SoPac: Enemy sub tangles with two USN DDs near Townsville. Lots of enemy shipping all around New Gunea, but still no disturbing SigInt or signs of the main battle fleet. Kanga paratroops drop on vacant Cloncurry, recapturing that base (and now they'll rail-move back to Cairns). The Allies will go "dark" in SWPac beginning day after tomorrow. I expect the NoPac feint to draw full attention over the next week. More ships are also moving to Perth to draw some attention that way. I think things are coming together well.

48


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Post #: 2035
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 4:15:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/25/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. CL Maurtius is in port. BB Royal Sovereign reached Capetown and will need 100 days of repair. BB Ramilles, the last of the heavily damaged Battle of Assam ships, will depart Chittagong in about two days. After the battle, John pulled all of his carriers and many of subs away, apparently sending them to New Guinea. There are many important reasons and counter reasons for that move, but one side (but important) consequence was that all the damaged Allied ships could transit "the guantlet" to Colombo without interdiction by sub or carrier strike force.

Burma: Allied bombers get an unmolested shot at 12/C Div. near Schwebo and inflict alot of damage. IJ bombers mostly stand down (or weather keeps them at base). Massive (100+) Tojo sweep in the hex occupied by the main Allied army. That number of Tojos is a force to be reckoned with. Tomorrow, all Allied bombers to focus on IJA 21st Div. in the jungle, followed by an Allied shock attack. I think John's about ready to start whittling away at the main Allied stack army.

NoPac: Chain of flanker USN DDs picked up by patrols. John got an eyeful. Tomorrow he should also pick up some of the "feint" amphibious TFs. I am, however, withdrawing my little BB TF. At this point, no purpose served in risking it. I think John is taking the bait up here. He won't take it long - heck, he might even sit back and rely on his strong defenses rather than mustering the KB - but I can't do any more.

SWPac: Enemy sub does light/moderate damage to an AD nearing the south cape of NZ. Drat. That's one of those little "signals" that might mean alot to John. Allied 4EB target Horn Island in big numbers, while 2EB hit Daly Waters. I'll do this one more day before I shut down things in hopes that John will turn his attention away from New Guinea.

56

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Post #: 2036
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 4:56:39 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		When you start your feint near Perth, the AD at the south cape of NZ could be interpreted as support for the Perth area move. The curtain is not up on your show yet!

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Post #: 2037
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 4:59:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I agree. :) I think the overall situation is pretty promising for the Allies. John has to be concerned about the Aluetians. He'll soon know that's a feint, but then he'll be hit with contradictory intel about Allied ships moving up both sides of Australia (and, if I can pull it together, some ships on a course threatening to either Port Blair or Moulmein). At this point, the Allied operation is "go" with D-Day in 15 to 17 days.

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Post #: 2038
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 6:01:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/26/42

Moves are happening within moves, it seems.

Bay of Bengal: Well, doggy! Enemy carriers are raiding in the Bay of Bengal. Reports are four CVE with 21 F and 71 B. Both Kates and Vals sortie, sinking picket DD Arrow and missing a second DD. No Allied shipping is presently making the transit (CL Mauritius escaped the ambush by about three days). Also, what seems to be a serious group of combat TFs is NW (true) of Port Blair, as though intent on hitting Ramree or Allied shipping at Akyab. After the stinging repulse John suffered at the Battle of Assam six weeks ago, he's had time to bring more - much, much more - to configure odds to his liking. Neverthless, my guys are going to fight. Four or five Aliled combat TFs are stationed at Akyab or will patrol thoe waters (coming from Chittagong). The stoutest TF is Ching Lee's, led by CAs Canberra and Cornwall. The second-best TF is CA Quincy led by Admiral John Henry Newton (I'm not sure how a Brit ended up in command of an All-American TF, but that's the beauty of AE: no repurcussions). Allied CAP will defend Akyab (ouch when those 130+ Tojos come to sweep). All Allied 2EB are on naval attack. Also, Akyab gets a squadron each of Beuforts and Avengers in hopes that torps will do some good.

Burma: Allied shock attack vs. 21st Div. really drives down raw AV, but adjusted AV still results in a 1:2 attack. Light losses to both sides, but things do appear promising long term. The good guys will rest a day or two and then try again.

NoPac: A Japanese CL/DD TF tangled with a lone American DD south of Attu. The USN DD took moderate damage but will try to make good her escape. To my surprise, John's patrols didn't pick up my two big feint TFs, so they'll move closer tomorrow.

SWPac: The Allies go dark starting tomorrow. Then I'll wait and hope that the KB moves into NoPac. If it doesn't, there's a fair chance that the feint up the west coast of Oz will do the trick. The Allied invasion ships and carriers are in position to sprint to the beaches as soon as they get the green light. So, John, show that KB far, far away!

59


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/5/2013 6:03:28 PM >

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Post #: 2039
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2013 6:04:44 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		What about your subs Dan? I haven't hear you talking about them lately...are they achieving any success? Those slow CVEs are a juicy target for your british and ducth boats

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Post #: 2040
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