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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 3:22:00 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Good on ya, Canoe. This is classic Allied play. It is not so much an issue of where but the key to victory in this or any campaign is to take the initiative away from the Japanese player as soon as possible. Canoerebel could have just as easily landed at Lunga, Milne Bay, or the Southern DEI (although Sumatra is the best place of all). The point is that John is forced to react and this curtails most all of Japan,s offensive options elsewhere. Good Japanese play requires the Japanese player to hold the initiative as long as possible and John has lost it in 11/42. I doubt he will get it back.

The worst case scenario is that John crushes CR totally at sea and wins a long and protracted campaign to take back Sumatra. (and this, I think, is highly unlikely) This would hurt the Allied cause but we are talking about months at best. That brings the game well into 1943 where the Allies can replace the losses. And if Japan has not advanced any further in any other theaters, then it is a strategic win for the Allied player as he will have solid positions for jumping off on his own counter-offensives.

Most likely is that this will be a long attrition battle with one side or the other eventually getting the upper hand. This sort of battle favors the Allies almost every time.

You JFBs just can't let this sort of thing happen in 1942.

The concept in war is a simple as can be. In the war as well as on a chessboard whomever hold the initiative holds the key. Right now, CR hold the initiative. It is his game to lose.

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 2701
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 3:51:55 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Oil: I don't think the threats (and isolation) of Magwe and Medan will have any short term consequences from an oil delivery standpoint, but the potential longterm impact might be two important considerations in John's overall mindset. IE, those are two more reasons for John to construe all of this as the "ultimate crisis" requiring a "no holds barred" attack. I mean, can he afford to keep his carriers back? I don't think so. I think he has to gather the full might of his fleet and attack.


How far will your naval search reach if you grab Medan? Combine that with soon to be better working USN torpedoes and those Gatos rolling off he production line and things get a tad more interesting

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2702
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 3:54:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

Most likely is that this will be a long attrition battle with one side or the other eventually getting the upper hand. This sort of battle favors the Allies almost every time.

One of the likely related impacts is that supply will be flowing to China much sooner than it would have been had this campaign not been launched. The long term implication for the IJA are not good

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 2703
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 4:23:45 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If I remember correctly, CR has kept the Chinese Army nearly intact (and experienced)- which spells bad news if it can also be supplied....if John is coming into the IO with his carriers & aiming for the Western Islands, it has to be part of a strategy to attempt to permanently interdict the supply lines to Sabang.

Nothing else makes sense at this point - since those islands can be used as Nettie bases...if CR can hold them & deny John any good places to interdict...then it is all over but the blood.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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Post #: 2704
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 4:31:56 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

permanently interdict the supply lines to Sabang


I just don't think this is possible. The KB can't stay on station forever and any Nettie bases will be subject to suppression and clouser from nearby airfields. Not so sure about range but John might have to bring in an Air HQ to put torps on the Netties and bring in some engineers to build these fields up. suppress the airfields for a turn and bring in the BB's to flatten whatever is there. Maybe this airfield tit for tat goes both ways for a while but these airfields can not stop supply by themselves. I think these islands are a good strategy on Johns part. They can be a PITA, but it won't shut the door. Great seach plane base though

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 2705
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 4:49:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Small things. Whenver there's a vortex - a concentration of force - some openings will generally occur elsewhere. These are often small things, but a few examples will suffice:

1. On D-Day, figuring John's full attention would be drawn to Sabang, BB Ramilles - badly damaged at the opening of the First Battle of Assam back in September - began making its way to refuge. She's now south of Addu Atoll and appears set to clear the map and make Capetown. There are currently four other RN BBs repairing there. Warpsite, which will be ready for action in a month, will be the first available.

2. With SoPac rendered insignficiant (or considerably less significant), the Allies have started cutting the corner by sending TFs on a more direct route - near Pago Pago and Fiji rather than via Tahiti.

3. Whereas Assam received 100% attention and protection as recently as November 9, now those levels are reduced to 20% fighters, 95% bombers, 5% seapower, and 95% ground forces. The Allies intend to push very hard in Burma, but doing so will require far fewer fighters and ships as long as John is focused on Sumatra and Malaysia.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 2706
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 9:31:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The current "lay of the land."




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2707
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 10:52:46 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline 		"I haven't mentioned the Allied carriers in awhile ... not tellin' where they are"

Not even in some cryptic math?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2708
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 11:18:49 PM   
Knucles2

 

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/8/2012
Status: offline 		"I haven't mentioned the Allied carriers in awhile ... not tellin' where they are"

He's doing it again....isn't he...

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Post #: 2709
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 11:28:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I would only be doing it again if I was posting things like this:

NoPac: The Allied carriers have crept to within 20 hexes of Tokyo unobserved. A devastating port attack is two days away if John doesn't have patrols out.

257/204/90/9/13


(in reply to Knucles2)
Post #: 2710
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 11:44:50 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Pilot B. Affleck in command, eh?

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Post #: 2711
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/3/2013 11:54:05 PM   
Grollub


Posts: 6674
Joined: 10/9/2005
From: Lulea, Sweden
Status: offline 		That pilot is flying a Stearman75 on recon flights out of Nome, Alaska.

ETA; (For his crimes against cinemanity)

< Message edited by Grollub -- 7/3/2013 11:57:43 PM >

_____________________________

“Not mastering metaphores is like cooking pasta when the train is delayed"

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Post #: 2712
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 12:23:38 AM   
Knucles2

 

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/8/2012
Status: offline 		I should never read CR's Crypticisms(?) while the opening theme from Game of Thrones is playing in my headphones...

I hope SOMEONE is trying to crunch those numbers...

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Post #: 2713
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 7:12:37 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		What to know where his carriers are?

That big yellow rectangle on the map is a massive clue

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Post #: 2714
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 4:08:10 PM   
CowboyRonin


Posts: 360
Joined: 8/14/2009
Status: offline 		The one with only one little green dot in it?

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Post #: 2715
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 4:33:54 PM   
Schlemiel

 

Posts: 154
Joined: 10/20/2011
Status: offline 		Unless the yellow square is covering the dot, it's not on map either (transitioning in, I'd guess, which is far too soon to be the carriers which would have had to reach Capetown and then the Canal, unless my dates escape me). While I could imagine moving the carriers out of theater entirely this early, I'd personally look at the alignment of the picket tfs to gauge my guess. I think Canoe won't put the carriers in harms way at the start and use their threat in being, but I also imagine with his playstyle that they are nearby (less than a week out, I mean) in case they are needed or opportunities arise. That said, putting them at risk of an alpha strike before the KB appears seems foolhardy to me, so I could see either a flanking maneuver with one of those two dots by the islands that might have secondary pickets in front of them, or possibly the dot down by Australia to shepherd a new movement in nw Oz while the vortex is sucked toward Sumatra. Could we see some kind of move on Timor? I have to imagine that Dili is relatively lightly held at the moment, and with enough supply that would be very hard to dislodge, but present a new crisis on the other flank of the DEI.

(in reply to CowboyRonin)
Post #: 2716
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 4:35:37 PM   
Justus2


Posts: 729
Joined: 11/12/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I would only be doing it again if I was posting things like this:

NoPac: The Allied carriers have crept to within 20 hexes of Tokyo unobserved. A devastating port attack is two days away if John doesn't have patrols out.

257/204/90/9/13




Obviously, they are hidden by the big text box strategically placed just south of the Home Islands!

257 Fighters, 204 Bombers, 90 Torpedo planes, will move 9 hexes today, 13 hexes remaining.

_____________________________

Playing/Learning Shadow Empire


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2717
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 5:22:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/23/42 - D+13, Operation Des Wallace

On the Ground: Part of a USA RCT lands by fast transport at Nias. This is the second island from the north, has J/R terrain (x3 multiplier) and now has 80 AV, including a Marine CD unit with eight 155mm guns. Advance tank unit is one hex from Medan and will attack the remnants of an Imperial Guards detachment; the big infantry units will reach this hex in two days and should reach Medan in four days. Over on Malaya, advance tank unit will attack an RTA unit in the jungle hex between Alor Star and Singora. The garrison at Singora is getting alot of attention and isn't real strong, but does have good terrain and I don't think John has anything beyond weak RTA units nearby right now. Sibolga seems to be drawing some supply from Sabang "through the jungle." If so, that's a huge advantage. Some troops are advancing out of Sibolga to create a roadblock and to pose a bit of a threat to Tandjoen. Advance elements of the reinforcing Indian division begin landing at Sabang tonight.

On the Seas: Lots of enemy subs all around Sabang, Medan and Alor Star now. BB Fuso TF seems to be coming north again. Lots of IJ interaction with Allied mines and subs in the Malacca Straits, lending additional credence, to my way of thinking, that John will not send carriers into the straits near term. Allied ships should be bombarding VP, Georgetown and Medan tonight. I'm a bit short of fuel at Sabang at present; more is coming in.

In the Air: Pretty quiet today. Sabang airfield goes to 5.34. Roughly five days to reach level 6. Supply limit is now at 110k, so another step increase should take it up to 135k to 140k.

Enemy Ships: No sign of the KB. No sign of major enemy combattants other than the Fuso TF. I think the Nagato/Ise TF is likely operating in the Singers area (it bombarded Singora a few days back).

Fireworks? John is usually prone to celebrating Independence Day in a flashy way. So I've been keeping that in mind - still lots of exposed ships in the lower reaches of the Sabang to Colombo pipeline, but not near as many as were there a few days back.

(in reply to Justus2)
Post #: 2718
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/4/2013 6:33:01 PM   
Schlemiel

 

Posts: 154
Joined: 10/20/2011
Status: offline 		I have been easily able to supply even Palembang from Sabang against the ai. Supply will flow south just fine toward bases, in my experience.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2719
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 3:56:01 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A word (and a question) about Japanese BBs:

Known Destroyed: Hyuga and Yamashiro
Known Badly Damaged and at Port Blair: Mutsu
Recently Bombarded Singora (South China Sea): Nagato and Ise
Recently Sighted near Enganno: Fuso

Then this report today:

ASW attack near Batavia at 45,98

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
DD Hayashio

Allied Ships
SS Spearfish

Any guesses as to what this might be?

(in reply to Schlemiel)
Post #: 2720
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 5:08:13 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Kirishima, Hiei, Kongo and Haruna are the only truly fast [30 kt.] BBs in Japan's lineup. Therefore they are ideal as escorts for KB [less Kaga, Hiyo and Junyo which are slower CVs].

Yamato and Musashi make a respectable 27 knots, but I suspect John will want to have their big guns out there breaking stuff rather than protecting CVs.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2721
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 5:54:14 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A word (and a question) about Japanese BBs:

Known Destroyed: Hyuga and Yamashiro
Known Badly Damaged and at Port Blair: Mutsu
Recently Bombarded Singora (South China Sea): Nagato and Ise
Recently Sighted near Enganno: Fuso

Then this report today:

ASW attack near Batavia at 45,98

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
DD Hayashio

Allied Ships
SS Spearfish

Any guesses as to what this might be?


Ummm....BB Kirishima and DD Hayashio?

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2722
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 7:02:28 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Does a submarine attack automatically detect all the ships in a TF?

_____________________________


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Post #: 2723
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 7:28:35 AM   
Houtje

 

Posts: 172
Joined: 6/19/2006
From: Netherlands
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Does a submarine attack automatically detect all the ships in a TF?



I don't think so (and it was an ASW attack, not a sub attack). Apart from that, IIRC, I do not think the combat report always give the correct names of the ships involved, due to FOW.

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 2724
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 1:22:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Spearfish did fire a 4-spread shot at Kirishima, though all missed.

My first thought on seeing Kirishima was "KB." That ship and Hiei are the two I most commonly associate with Japanese carrier TFs. However, I do recall that John detached both from KB to bombard the Gilberts back during the summer months. So, I can't be positive, though at this point (D+14), the KB should be within striking distance.

(in reply to Houtje)
Post #: 2725
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 2:29:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/24/42 - D+14, Operation Des Wallace

Two weeks into this operation, the enemy still hasn't arrive in full strength, though his air power is noticeably stronger.

Enemy Carriers: Don't know where the KB is, though I'm assuming very close now. If Kirishima is part of KB, then the carriers are near the Sunda Straits. Up in the Andaman Sea, patrols report a CV hugging the coast near Victoria Point. This is either bait or John is taking a suicidal risk, hoping to "run the guantlet" at top speeds to get this carrier down through the Malacca Straits. I'd previously reported another sighting of carriers. John Dillworth speculated they might be "bait." About that same time, John had posted an AAR comment titled "Spotted." At the time, I wondered if he wasn't trying to create a small deception that his carriers had been "spotted," as though he was disappointed when he was actually trying to draw mine into the Andaman Sea. That's quite possible.

Allied Ground Campaign: Most of 20th Indian Div. has arrived at Sabang, with the rest just one hex away. Major decision to make: Send this unit to Alor Star for the Malaya campaign, feed her into the campaign for Medan and Tandjoen, or parcel her out as garrisons to protect the important islands? All three of those are desirable. One is highly aggressive, one is modestly aggressive and one is defensive. The advance Allied units should reach Medan tomorrow or the day after, after first pushing aside a detachment of Imperial Guards in the adjacent hex. Medan remains lightly defended. John is working on Tandjoen, though it's still vulnerable - though it would be at least seven to ten days before the Allies could arrive there. Alot will happen before then. Sabang airfield to 5.49.

Allies at Sea: Another strong bombardment of Georgetown destroys 28 aircraft, mainly Tojos. This base isn't on a rail line, so John wasn't able to transfer out his damaged aircraft. Vals and Kates are flying in big numbers (though still without torps) from the southern end of Sumatra and Malaya. Today they claimed an AM and a DD, plus did light damage to BB Revenge, which for some reason has taken three nights to set up a bombardment run to Medan - all of seven hexes. I'm way short on DDs at the front now - I have perhaps a dozen in the yards at Colombo, most lightly damaged. Just the attrition involved in a major campaign in which the two sides are in close proximity.

Japanese Intentions: Still unclear from where I'm sitting. My best guess is that John will position the KB west of Sabang in order to cover some big landings at the Sumatran islands plus perhaps Sibolga. At the same time he's likely to feed a large army into the Malay Peninsula to handle the situation at Alor Star and Singora. He probably will fight hard (and ought to) to reinforce and keep Tandjoen. I doubt he thinks he has the time or troops to successfully defend Medan. He's withrawing in Burma, but it isn't yet clear whether he will try to hold the main line from Rangoon up to Schewbo - I think so. I have no idea what his fuel and supply situations are. I need an OSS office to evaluate. For instance, if his stockpiles were relatively low in this theater before the operation, just how long can he support an Air HQ unit and major operations in Port Blair?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/5/2013 2:30:58 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2726
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 2:51:37 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

just how long can he support an Air HQ unit and major operations in Port Blair?
Any Chance of a BB bombardment here?

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2727
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 2:54:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Not really. That's a Netty nest and Allied bombardment TFs seem to loiter in setting up their missions, so that they remain within easy torp range for a turn or two or three. The only way I could hazard such a mission would be to use my carriers to cover, and that aint gonna happen until the main mission - protecting Sabang and the LOC - is accomplished. Of necessity, Port Blair shall remain an irritant for the time being.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 2728
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 4:38:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Coming Battle

I think John will orchestrate the coming battle similar to the opening of the First Battle of Assam: Overwhelm Allied CAP at Sabang with multiple major Tojo sweeps followed by carrier air strikes vs. shipping at the port. This strategy nearly worked for him the first time, and he's probably fairly confident it will the second time given the big bump in numbers with the KB present.

The Allied plan:
1. The first strike is likely intended to overwhelm. If it fails or is effectively countered, John may lose so many aircraft that the battle is effectively decided. Thus, the Allies will maximize fighter cover at Sabang. This currently conists of nearly 250 fighters - 75 P-40K, roughly 20 P-40E, 15 P-39G, a few Buffaloes, and the rest F4Fs. Given a few days, I'll have another P-40K squadron.
2. Capital ships at Sabang will have to absorb heavy blows. I'm likely to lose quite a few. But mission one is to prevent major bombardments that would diminish CAP.
3. The Allies currently have three AA units at Sabang with two more enroute.
4. If necessary, the Allies can draw on carrier air for reinforcements, but the preferred plan is to seriously attrit enemy carrier air to then allow a carrier battle at more favorable odds.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2729
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 7/5/2013 4:48:00 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Singapore starts with 70 HI and 40 LI which could have been damaged during the conquest, but the Japanese could have expanded them too. They produce enough to keep at least that base in good supply, and probably most of the Malay peninsula. A major air campaign will deplete that rapidly though!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2730
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