Alfred
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quote:
ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
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ORIGINAL: n01487477
quote:
ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
quote:
ORIGINAL: n01487477
The amount of Allied troops, ships and planes is just staggering... How can any allied player not wipe the floor mid-'43 in beyond me. I need to play the Allied side once, just to feel omnipotent.
And of course Fionn is a master is using all of it to press you from as many sides as possible to divert you from what he is really going to do.
Thanks Pax ... haven't lost sight of that fact ... I believe some Allied players need to play as the IJ and vice-versa to really understand how poorly they are playing.
In China - he's heading for Shanghai.
In Burma, he's heading for a hop to Singapore.
In Australia, he's looking to go up the chain to the Philippines.
In the Nrth, He'll wait a bit and try an amphib of the Kuriles again after I've retaken them. Actually, I'm sure he's like to do it earlier, but that would mean diverting a lot of my naval forces elsewhere.
Have a good one mate.
Typical Fionn.
Now, let's add up what else we know. He doesn't have strength to do all of those yet, not even close. What you have to do is to figure out where his real thrust is; which one do you have to bring your reserves to? The rest of them, you should be able to defeat with your local forces. At this time, your LCU's are still stronger than most of the allied ones. Your airforce is a lot stronger if you concentrate it and bring it to bear.
But, to counter all of these, you are going to have to commit all of your forces. Fionn plays no half measures, he throws everything against the wall and sees what sticks. He then reinforces whatever success he has from his forthcoming replacements. Defeats, he allows to whither and forgets about them. As you note, he has 4 thrusts; he only needs one to work to either win or create significant havoc.
On the flip side, he is putting a lot of forces into harms way early. If you crush them, you can put his offensive schemes to rest for 6 months or more.
Good Luck! BANZAI!!!
PaxMondo is on the right track but he doesn't go far enough as this still hands the initiative to the Allies. I remind readers to go back to my early post on how to approach the problem.
Using the air force to Ground Attack Allied units in China is a misuse of that asset. That Damian has recently forced a withdrawal of Allied units from a clear hex with the assistance of the air force does not invalidate my statement that it is a mistake. All that the bombing represents is a very small tactical Japanese victory achieved at the cost of a significant strategic Japanese defeat. On the other hand, at the cost of a very small tactical defeat, Nemo has achieved a significant Allied strategic victory.
Why is this so?
1. The Allied losses are easily replaced with supply.
2. Nemo does not even have to concern himself with replacing his materiel losses as his strategic plan can be furthered even with depleted chinese units.
3. The Japanese action has been entirely in response to the Allied moves. It is reactive and as such cedes the initiative to the Allies.
4. Japan has no plans to effectively exploit this very minor tactical victory and any attempt to exploit this "victory" by advancing in the general area does not improve the strategic Japanese position but does improve the Allied strategic position.
5. The opportunity cost of using the Japanese aircraft on Ground Attack has been huge and is one of the main factors which underpin the statement made in point 4 above.
I will at this point make this general comment because players consistently fail to pay due regard to it. Every so often someone on the forum will mention "opportunity" cost. I do so quite frequently. Usually players think of "opportunity cost" only in terms of carrying out an unproductive action and then contemplate how the assets could have been employed in a productive action instead. What they consistently fail to see is that "opportunity cost" also applies to using assets in a productive action but the value of achieving success in that action is far inferior to that of a much more promising action. In fact one can achieve only partial success with the better productive action and still come out ahead in "opportunity cost" terms than if one had achieved 100% success in the lesser productive action.
What was and remains the correct use of the Japanese air force in China? The answer is found in my early post. Destroy every Allied supply source. Only when there is no Allied supply source in range should any consideration be given to using the air force on other tasks or in another theatre, assuming that the rest of the Japanese military (ie the army and navy) cannot then bring untouched Allied supply sources into range of the air force. And that is an unwarranted assumption which I provide an invalidation of the assumption further down.
Destroying Allied supply sources in China is of much higher benefit to the overall Imperial war effort for these reasons.
1. Destruction of supply sources impacts negatively on all Allied land and air units operating in China and encompasses all Allied nationalities. Japan derives a long term benefit from doing so.
2. Routing of Chinese units in a single hex only impacts negatively on those few, in relative terms low quality Chinese assets, but leaves untouched all other low and high quality land and air units in the theatre. Japan derives only a very short term benefit from doing so.
3. For the reasons given in the two preceding points, strategic bombing is a large force multiplier at the least cost in terms of Japanese asset and logistical expenditure to Japan itself, which slows down Allied operations in China the most and provides japan with a time credit to utilise it's initiative elsewhere.
4. For as you destroy Allied supply sources in China Nemo is left with the difficult choice of does he direct his meagre supply imports to the immediate feeding of his advance at the pointy end or to rebuild his local industry. Strategic bombing in China promises to deprive the Allies of benefiting from the recapturing Burma as a means to supply the Chinese hordes. I won't discuss now how that can dramatically impact on the Japanese handling of the Burma theatre
Let us approach China from another angle. What can the Allies achieve in China and what benefits can they expect to reap. Damian has indicated that he believes Nemo is heading for Shanghai. Why would Shanghai be the Allied target? Well capturing that city allows for:
1. The complete interdiction of all Japanese raw material convoys traversing the south China Sea back to the Home Islands
2. It makes inoperative the magical raw material overland highway from Singapore to the East China Sea ports
3. It greatly complicates the Japanese defensive posture as various different axes for the next Allied advance open up.
(a) Do the Allies make the short jump to Taiwan (without the need of Allied carriers which can be profitably used on a completely different axis) and thereby directly reduce Japanese secondary industry capacity with the attendant ill effects on HI points production
(b) Do the Allies strike at Korea with the threefold objective of further reducing Japanese industrial production, or moving into Manchukuo to reduce the garrison to below 8000 AV and thereby trigger an early Russian activation, or merely making the rest of the IJA position in northern China untenable due to being cut off from resupply and unable to redeploy to the Home Islands to meet any Allied landings there
(c) Do the Allies move into the Ryukus to more directly threaten the Home Islands and cut off the Korea-Japan SLOC
So there are very great tangible benefits to Nemo if he captures Shanghai but ... but ... but if he lacks the supply to sustain offensive operations at several points simultaneously in China or to manoeuvre you out of strongpoints, he will be stopped stone motherless dead just from lack of supply long before he gets there. It is in fact to your considerable benefit to cede ground at various points in China as it draws him away from his supply depots and you approach closer to your own supply depots.
One of the reasons I posted previously that you should move to capture every Allied port in China was to deny the allies the option of shipping in supply and shortening your own lines. With all Chinese ports under Imperial control, you can then utilise the internal Chinese riverine system to both send supply up river at a very good exchange rate and to land behind any advancing Allied LCUs.
I said before you are handing over the initiative, not losing it. You still have time, but it is fast running out and most of your contemplated actions are of no real benefit, to wield the big stick. Everything Nemo will do is completely dependent on maintaining secure LOCs and getting supply to his spearheads. You can totally disregard them, even at short term cost if, and I repeat again, if you take offensive action to destroy his logistics. He cannot afford to disregard that threat. Your logistics are much more secure simply from possessing interior lines and from the victories achieved previously against Floyd. It therefore comes down to this:
who will blink first
Adopt the right strategy and tactics, and he will objectively have to blink first even though he will try to convince you, by the use of smoke and mirrors, that it is you who has to blink first. You can destroy Allied supply sources (and not just in China) much more easily than he can. But give another 1-2 months of what you are currently doing, and that statement may no longer apply. Currently you hold the bigger stick, that is why you still hold the initiative objectively, provided you act appropriately.
This post is already too long for me to comment on what you can do elsewhere.
Alfred
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RE: n01487477 Vs. Nemo121 - 
so I went back and wanted to remind you of Alfred's posting earlier: 
Time will tell .... 
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