RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil)

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 12:42:09 AM

Michael T

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If you have a look at my disabled pool its almost the same as the Soviet. 1.2m each. I can tell you though a fair proportion of the Axis would be Minor Allies, especially Rumanian. They were used as cannon fodder, merely contacting the Red line to increase Soviet attrition as I withdrew in the south. He certainly got many cheap wins from this but his attrition losses went up for sure.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 12:43:58 AM

Michael T

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My losses are there on the map. There is still one more Blizzard Turn of losses to obsorb though.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 12:47:23 AM

Walloc

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Yeha sorry i saw but i didnt edit my post fast enough.

Thx,

Rasmus

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 12:47:33 AM

Wuffer

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for dramaturgy only, the auditorium really hopes the Sowjets to hold and to come back.^^

this AAR had the chance to become a reference

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 12:59:07 AM

Walloc

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Michael T

If you have a look at my disabled pool its almost the same as the Soviet. 1.2m each. I can tell you though a fair proportion of the Axis would be Minor Allies, especially Rumanian. They were used as cannon fodder, merely contacting the Red line to increase Soviet attrition as I withdrew in the south. He certainly got many cheap wins from this but his attrition losses went up for sure.

Eaxctly, ppl often overlook that fact in the "run" strategy. U "save" ur army but the russian also gets bigger cuz of less attrition especially if the russian in that case hold unnecesarry units back. If u can stay and fight without losing ur army u get the best of all worlds.
Yeah i seen the use of minors as fodder so i would expect the % in this particular game to be a bit higher than usually. Still you got 579k left in their OOB number so all that many more u cant have lost. So i do think its higher as the number was 600k at end of june in the HB/sapper game, ofc it depence on how u use them until june and what losses they take until then. Guess we can check the numbers at end of june. Can u give us the number in the rumenians Manpower pool, currently please?

Kind regards,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 8/20/2013 1:18:28 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 1:22:09 AM

Flaviusx

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Rasmus, I'm referring to the stuff that gets banged up, then the elements get repaired and go back into the production pools. That's completely aside from the hard disableds. The difficulty is sometimes getting that stuff out of the replacement pool and on to on map units.

During the blizzard these kind of soft losses go up a lot, and at the same time the Axis gets behind in kicking them out of the replacement pool. Then they get caught up once the blizzard goes away.

Late in the game we've been deviled by reports of some Axis players not being able to get stuff out of the pools at all and seeing those pools blow up. But it doesn't happen consistently. My own view is that this is an artifact of the replacement system not being able to push replacements on to front line units in a guaranteed fashion and people getting into some kind of bad feedback loop where they can never recover. Ironically, this dynamic tends to help whoever is on the offense.

Anyways, whatever the particulars, I see Axis numbers bounce back very quickly post blizzard.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 8/20/2013 1:27:40 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 1:39:36 AM

Walloc

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Rasmus, I'm referring to the stuff that gets banged up, then the elements get repaired and go back into the production pools. That's completely aside from the hard disableds. The difficulty is sometimes getting that stuff out of the replacement pool and on to on map units.

During the blizzard these kind of soft losses go up a lot, and at the same time the Axis gets behind in kicking them out of the replacement pool. Then they get caught up once the blizzard goes away.

Late in the game we've been deviled by reports of some Axis players not being able to get stuff out of the pools at all and seeing those pools blow up. But it doesn't happen consistently. My own view is that this is an artifact of the replacement system not being able to push replacements on to front line units in a guaranteed fashion and people getting into some kind of bad feedback loop where they can never recover. Ironically, this dynamic tends to help whoever is on the offense.

Anyways, whatever the particulars, I see Axis numbers bounce back very quickly post blizzard.

Ah, ok Flav. You were refering to the rules concerning half of the damaged devices going back into the pools and other half gets to dies in each unit, every turn. Yes that indeed fills the pools too.(incidently i think that is why some see's pools of "useless" stuff that they think the AI build but is merely a result of that) Sorry i didnt get that. ur 1% of dead comment threw me off.
Yeah i see MT at end of June possibly being 3.7-3.8m ish, if he has some thing build up in the Manpower pool now. Ofc depending on exactly how the spring goes. All those disabled rumeanins comming 3/4s back as germans

Ok, gotcha,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 8/20/2013 1:48:19 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 1:42:17 AM

Flaviusx

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Does the replacement system not distinguish disableds by nationality? Wow. Well, whatever. I'm not going to raise too much of a stink about that because honestly, the replacement system is kind of stacked against the Axis anyways due to the refit restriction. The Soviet has a much easier time rotating stuff out of the front line.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 1:46:26 AM

Walloc

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Pretty sure the game just has one large pool. Or the text of teh rules are very odd.

In addition, each turn one percent of the manpower listed as disabled will return to the manpower pool. A percentage of returning disabled Axis manpower goes back to Axis allied countries as follows:
�h Rumania - 10 percent
�h Hungary - 9 percent
�h Finland - 4 percent
�h Italy - 1.5 percent
�h Slovakia - .75 percent
The remainder of the returning disabled men will go to Germany.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 1:48:32 AM

Michael T

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It rubs both ways though. Coz if you keep the Allies in the rear during blizzard then they get 25% of the German losses returned as Allies.

Bottom line is you should aim to have some Minor Allies as casualties otherwise you get robbed.

< Message edited by Michael T -- 8/20/2013 1:49:16 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 1:56:40 AM

Michael T

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I might add I only lost surrendered:

1 German INF Div
1 German INF Reg
1 German Cav Brigade

1 Slovakian Sec Div

Plus 3 Rumanian Divisions and 1 German Sec Reg Shattered.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 2:01:56 AM

Flaviusx

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These are very light losses in actual units killed. Less than in real life, maybe. Germans did lose an entire infantry corps in December as I recall.

I'm surprised Kamil didn't try to use the airborne on you by Moscow. If he had, that might have just about overloaded your defense, it was a near run thing as things stood. That was the obvious place to try a drop imo. This probably needs to be reigned in some, not that said drops didn't occur in real life and cause serious problems, but the game is a bit too freewheeling about it. WITW should fix that with the prep system (otherwise the allied airborne and amphibious capability is going to be out of control.)

Then they can go back and retrofit it to WITE2.

The other part about airdrops I'm not happy with is that they instantly flip hex control. This is borderline cheese in my estimation and part of the reason they can be so devastating. You can drive cav right through that and make a mess.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 2:20:49 AM

Michael T

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I was fearful of the para's. I started off with a 2 hex zone in my rear on the Moscow front covered with HQ's and Empty Airbases. This prevents para's landing. I slacked off sometime in January and a Para did land behind the line at Moscow, but his regular ground attack failed (one of the very few that did). It was eliminated in my turn. Then I resumed the old pattern of the HQ/AB anti para zones. No more till this point.

I did wipe out all but 1 or 2 out during the summer though. And I suspect he was loath to use the new Para's as they flip over to Guards XX.

But I agree the whole Para thing in WITE is borked. Hence the HR. But even so they are like a tactical nuke in effect if they land in the right spot in numbers.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 3:57:23 AM

Flaviusx

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Wouldn't a drop on an airbase or HQ merely displace them? Not seeing how this stops the drops, unless it's because of your fighter cover.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 4:42:14 AM

Michael T

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Airborne won't drop on to any kind of unit at all. If they get to drop then they still won't displace anything until the end of the turn. Cheese to stop cheese.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 4:48:46 AM

Flaviusx

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I'm okay with this. Note that for future iterations of the game, airbases are going away (they'll be built onto the map itself) but then, airborne will be more restricted, too.

You'll still be able to block drops with cooks and clerks, presumably, which is kind of funny. REMFS > paras!

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 8/20/2013 4:49:32 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 5:01:37 AM

Michael T

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Anyway you are correct that if a largish para op was successful behind my lines it would have been a disaster.

Another thing I am pleased about is I did not waste a single AP or man on Forts. My AP were used to get the best out of leaders, C&C and SU assignments.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 5:13:31 AM

Flaviusx

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I'm skeptical of how effective fort spam is for dealing with the blizzard in any case. It's a waste of APs and manpower. I suppose they might work if you built a line that could be occupied in February, but any line you throw up that can be reached earlier than that will simply get smashed through.

Only place I could see it working out in this particular game is around the Rzhev-Vyazma area. The Soviet didn't reach that until very late. That could have freed up some divisions for duty elsewhere. Otherwise, meh.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 8:48:43 AM

Walloc

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Well there is one thing one that IMO should be taken into consideration when it comes to fort/fortification lvls in the blizzard as german. It lowers the blizzard losses and the multiplier start to kick in at fortification 3 in any sigificant degree. Its even better but not realistily that u can get to 4. So getting fort lvls up in time for the blizzard if u going to fight it out has some merits. If u use a run strategy there is no real use as u will be moving out of hexes aall the time and u cant pre dig that much. On the other hand if u going to fight it out u have a better understand of where u unit migth be at a given time, ofc depending on how it goes.

As there is only 2 ways to get to 3 or higher at fortification levels. Frontlines and forts. Well frontlines are a given but as one might be forced out those hexes it is a long blizzard so are only good for as much.
Yeah, forts costs AP but if u havea plan and are able to in the are like near Moscow plan and stay. A fort can get u up too lvl 4 in own hex but 3 in adjecent. So 1 fort covered 7 hexes. If u placed them 2 hexes behind the front line and not continuously but every 3rd hee u can efffect with two forts cover 14 hexes in 6 hex rows N and S and 3 Deep. With planning in digging and no u cant possibly dig or meaintain fort 3s in all of those hexes. Non the less if smart about it u dont need that many forts to give u the ability/possibility if u have the diggers and have done some of the work prehand to have 3 fortication fall back lines in the area u not expected to run in.
Again as at fortication 3 and up the loss multiper starts to have some signigicance i could see why u might wana use some forts. But i wouldnt spam them in continious lines and only use them in area ur certain u going to fight in. Else its just a Waste.
Particular uselfull for mot/pz units that cant be in cities/urban hexes for what ever reason.

A thought up example.
y = adjcent, X = fort. F = frontline

YYYF
YXYF
YYYF
YYYF
YXYF
YYYF

2 forts covering 6 rows, times 3. along with 1 frontline able to get to 3 on its own.

In the case of this game if u look at post 47 and then check out the area just W but mainly SW of Moscow. 5-6-7 forts there with all those diggers in the lines behind any way. Thasts 30 AP for the potential of getting alot of those hexes to fortification lvl 3. Saving blizzard losses.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 8/20/2013 9:27:43 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 9:15:40 AM

Walloc

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Looking at the OOB numbers at turn 26(2nd turn into the blizzard) vs the lastest. Ur OOB numbers has fallen 100k ish throughout most of blizzard with its effects. This is in part why the german gets the high 42 OOB numbers but ill make a seperate post about that once i have it all written up.

< Message edited by Walloc -- 8/20/2013 12:33:59 PM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 2:10:38 PM

Bozo_the_Clown

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quote:

A thought up example.
y = adjcent, X = fort. F = frontline

YYYF
YXYF
YYYF
YYYF
YXYF
YYYF

Sorry, I don't get it. I understand that the FZ can get to level 4 but how does the adjacent hex get its fortification level up without any troops in it? Please teach me!

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/20/2013 2:24:32 PM

Walloc

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It cant in it self, but if u look at the Picture at post 47. U can see in the area W/ SW of Moscow. MT aldy has units in the hexes behind the main line digging and have presumably been there for some time as some of the hexes are alrdy at the max level 2. Those units are through the rules limited at max fort 2. As u can get fort 4 in same hex and fort 3 in adjecent hexes of a fort unit. Those diggers wouldnt have been limited at fort 2, but fort 3 and inhex 4. I dont consider its a possibility to get to 4 tho.
Which would help with both higher CV and less blizzard losses. Difference between fort 2 and fort 3 is going from a 4% to a 9% reduction of the percentage of the blizzard damage. It sounds as more than it is, but it all helps and i suggest reading the rules concerning it at 22.3.2. Particular in dec where it would have made the biggest impact.
In In specific condiitons as those i think it has a value to make limted forts. Not continuos lines or spamming all over or in area u gona run any how, but it seemed clear MT wanted to stay and fight in that area. 30ish AP o rhalf a turns worth would have covered that area. Is the Price worth it.. well up ppl. Just wanted to mention the option and why it can have merits.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 2:10:11 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The hardest part is getting the stuff back into units on the front line, alas. Every time I think we've gotten this fixed for good, somebody has a report showing their pools not getting drawn on, even when the manpower and armament points are there. I know the tricks to get around this as the Soviet, but it's tougher on the Axis. It's one of the few areas where friction is, if anything, more exaggerated in game than in real life. The logistics in WITE may be incredibly lax, but the replacement mechanics are much too stringent and have a tendency to bug out for the Axis.

He needs to break contact with as many units as possible come mud.

1 division per hex in front line then linebacker the front line- 2 regiments in front 1 in back. Then rotate these regiments each turn.

Also German SU's in army HQ's get replacements much faster then Corp or SU's in divisions.

The key as always is infantry morale, if its tanks he can have 3.6 million men and they will not be as good as 3.2 million men.

The loses alone suffered by 60-70 morale vs 70-80 morale units is huge over just 8 turns. GHC can very quickly burn through men and equipment much faster then you think in 42.

Kamil is building morale.

Its all going to come down to Moscow or MT has to pocket at least 1200 AP's worth of units.

Should be interesting, Kamil has allot of 42+ exp and has pulled victory from jaws of defeat before.

SHC manpower is not static over time. It grows as SHC pushes west and gets big bumps as this manpower centers are retaken, why once the steamroller starts manpower numbers climb by 100k per turn dispite huge loses.

Very good game so far and MT has the upper hand, but the morale is very low over all. To get this back to 70+ will require allot of loses. The GHC 200 dead and 1500 SHC dead battles of 41 are now 600 GHC vs 1300 SHC at 4 to 1 or better odds.

Kamil can cut MT to death with just 20 battles per turn if he is hitting the right weak spots of which there will be allot along the GHC front.

MT needs to pocket allot of units quickly or he will quickly grind himself into dust.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/21/2013 2:13:17 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 4:33:49 AM

Michael T

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I have Kamil's last blizzard turn. He ran away. Boy he knows how to run. Anyhow that means there won't be much of a snow attack, at least for the Axis this turn.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 4:58:32 AM

Flaviusx

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He's running out of room to run, that wasn't quite what I had in mind when I said he had to rationalize his lines. That said, his failure to take back Voronezh leaves him in an extremely awkward position. But what's he going to do? Fall back to the Volga? That leaves the Axis open to get behind Moscow and strike towards Gorky or get behind Stalingrad or even both.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 5:43:53 AM

Michael T

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I suspect he will only run this turn, surely.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 4:15:22 PM

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Your opponent his more afraid of what the Axis is going to do to hurt him then focused on how the soviet is going to hurt the axis. Currently, the axis has huge holes in the line that could be exploited. But any exploitation requires risking units. With the very low casualty count suffered by the soviets, they could easily lose a lot more men and material and not really slow the transition to soviet army 2.0.

MT your reputation is your best defense. If your are not attacked, then the weakness of your defense is not tested. Allowing the axis to recover in peace will not turn out well for the soviet.

Vandev

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 6:44:52 PM

Flaviusx

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MT's defense is fine and he's holding on to the stuff that matters, and inviting the Soviet to throw away units by running into open ground in snow conditions well ahead of his rails (and Kamil's trucks must be taking a beating here as is.)

Kamil wisely declined. This is just throwing good money after bad, and Kamil's replacement situation won't sustain this. Personally, as the Axis player I'd be thrilled to see the Soviet continue to press his luck here. He took his best shot during the blizzard and came up just short. Discretion is now the better part of valor.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 8/21/2013 7:07:07 PM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 8:15:11 PM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

MT's defense is fine and he's holding on to the stuff that matters, and inviting the Soviet to throw away units by running into open ground in snow conditions well ahead of his rails (and Kamil's trucks must be taking a beating here as is.)

Kamil wisely declined. This is just throwing good money after bad, and Kamil's replacement situation won't sustain this. Personally, as the Axis player I'd be thrilled to see the Soviet continue to press his luck here. He took his best shot during the blizzard and came up just short. Discretion is now the better part of valor.

A small army has no truck issues, but huge armies in 42 do.

As we have all seen huge 42 SHC simply melt away because of a lack of MP's. Once the line was broken it was game set match.

In this case trucks will not be an issue.

Pelton vs Hugh 10 million man army to slow to get close to Berlin.
Pelton vs Brian 7.3 million man army with a small truck issue.

SHC is much better off with 7-8 million man mobile army.

Very interesting match up for sure.

MT's infantry morale is the deciding factor.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 10:35:37 PM

Michael T

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I have completed my attacks for the first March turn and despite the retreat by Soviets I managed to securely isolate (via herding) a Guard ID, a Guard Cav XXX and a Regular ID plus 25K of casualties inflicted. So fairly pleased with that considering the gap between my units and his. His OOB stands at 5.81m

Kamil's major problem is he does not have the ARM Industry to sustain a slugfest for anymore than a short period. He only has 262 ARM factories left. He is producing a maximum of 74,750 ARM points per turn. In July he will begin his Rifle Squad upgrade process. After that begins his situation will be even worse. And don't forget attacking burns ammo and ammo sucks up ARM points. Kamil is crippled. Even if he survives 42/43 there is no way he can build a Red Army 2.0 in enough time to throw me back far enough for him to avoid the SD conditions in early 1944.

He ran way too far in 41 and suffered terrible Industrial losses. The Soviet needs to save his army and his industry. Kamil only saved his Army.

< Message edited by Michael T -- 8/22/2013 12:05:57 AM >

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