RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil)

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 11:30:34 PM

Flaviusx

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I agree fully with MTs analysis here.

Pelton, morale is important, but this is a different game being governed by different conditions. It's really coming down to economics. You're trying to force your own blueprint of how to beat the Soviets onto an alternate set of circumstances.

MT, those losses don't sound like much, but when you throw attrition on top of that, you're just about netting what his replacements are for the turn, so really you don't need to do anything crazy from here on out to hold him steady. He will grow during mud, though. I figure he'll wind up with maybe a half million more men going into summer. Then it's all on you to shrink that remorselessly and grind him to bits. It may indeed take another campaign season to finish it off, but I think it'll be more mop up than anything else going into 1943.

This business with new rifle squads chewing through crazy amounts of armaments needs to be looked at someday, imo.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 8/21/2013 11:32:36 PM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/21/2013 11:59:09 PM

Michael T

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quote:

This business with new rifle squads chewing through crazy amounts of armaments needs to be looked at someday, imo.

Agreed. In my game with Pelton I noted it was a very ARM hungry process. Over the top. But I was so far in front it was not an issue for me. But in a game like this, ouch.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/22/2013 1:24:24 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I agree fully with MTs analysis here.

Pelton, morale is important, but this is a different game being governed by different conditions. It's really coming down to economics. You're trying to force your own blueprint of how to beat the Soviets onto an alternate set of circumstances.

MT, those losses don't sound like much, but when you throw attrition on top of that, you're just about netting what his replacements are for the turn, so really you don't need to do anything crazy from here on out to hold him steady. He will grow during mud, though. I figure he'll wind up with maybe a half million more men going into summer. Then it's all on you to shrink that remorselessly and grind him to bits. It may indeed take another campaign season to finish it off, but I think it'll be more mop up than anything else going into 1943.

This business with new rifle squads chewing through crazy amounts of armaments needs to be looked at someday, imo.

I agree Flaviusx this game is different then most of mine, but similar to several. You might be right, but we shall see.

MT will not be able to grind Kamil down, because of GHC low infantry morale.MT can for sure pocket enough units. MT will have to use his excellent skills using his panzers to win this one, grinding is not the answer.

The tipping point for GHC is 3.4 million. This is a number others passed on to me and has proven to be right. GHC can keep attacking in 42 and even 43 until 3.4 million. There comes a point when attacking as Katza loves to say is simply grinding down yourself.

You will be surpised at how quickly things change.

MT might beable to pocket enough units during June/July and part of August to then assault Moscow, but hes going to have to have a good core of high morale infantry divisions.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/22/2013 1:25:20 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/22/2013 1:36:28 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Michael T

quote:

This business with new rifle squads chewing through crazy amounts of armaments needs to be looked at someday, imo.

Agreed. In my game with Pelton I noted it was a very ARM hungry process. Over the top. But I was so far in front it was not an issue for me. But in a game like this, ouch.

The same thing happens to GHC MT so be prepared to watch your stockpile of 200k-300k armament pts disappear between October 42 and May 43. Why mine disappeared vs you. Combat does suck up some, but the conversions chew up several hundred thousand.

This conversion will forse GHC from the offensive to defensive.

Again Flaviusx the smaller the SHC army the less this costs. SO the impact on Kamil will be minimal because his army is smaller.

That's why when I see a 9+ million man SHC army I feel better then when I see a 7-8 million man army come early 43.

The conversion upgrade cripples the larger army coupled with lack of trucks and you have a toothless 10 million man SHC by late 43.

Kamils army will see little effect from the conversions while MT's stock pile will disappear and never recover after mid 43 if Kamil is only attacking 20 times per turn and winning 40%.

I have been there done that more then once.

MT has to KO Kamil or hes stuck with a draw because GHC will fall apart late 43 by design.

By the very conversions you talk about on the SHC side.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/22/2013 1:42:08 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/22/2013 1:39:51 AM

Peltonx

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Also why this chews up arm pts has been explained by the 3 amigo's all rdy when we were hunting down the arm/ammo/morale and conversions bugs everyone said did not exist

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/22/2013 3:58:09 PM

juret

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this will be a fun game in july and aug when MT uses hes PZ skills to make POCKETS!

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/23/2013 10:22:33 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I agree fully with MTs analysis here.

Pelton, morale is important, but this is a different game being governed by different conditions. It's really coming down to economics. You're trying to force your own blueprint of how to beat the Soviets onto an alternate set of circumstances.

This is one of many games I have played that follow MT's game very closely and is my only game on going.

Now also remember this is one of the major bugged game- had ammo bug, morale bugs and conversions bugs all of which helped SHC or hurt GHC.

OOB's are carbon copies of each other.

Brian is more offensive minded then I remember Kamil being. But Kamil much better at counter attacking, defense and grinding. In other words Brian also knows morale is king of the battle field. So his smaller army which was 1.8 million men smaller then Hughs was of a much better quality. aka higher morale=lower GHC morale.

Turn 39 VP Total= 208

Manpower Pts over run during 1942 = 65
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp:
Divisions: 20
Brigades: 5
SU: 10
AP total: 235
Russian losses this turn: 62,000 Total dead: 4,730,000
Russian OOB: 4,893,000 vs Kamils 5.8
A net gain of: 75,000
Russian units currently in a pocket: 8
GHC OOB: 3,293,000
GHC net OOB change: 87,000

Brian was is worse shape then Kamil front is also very similar. 5.5 to 6 is really the average in my games with some being over 6.5 million. all the 6.5 + games I drawed or won so OOB size is not everything.

If I was going simply by the numbers of my 16 games that went into 42+ I say its 25/50/25 MT will lose or draw or win. I am not going by how I feel, I am going by allot of past exp, more then anyone I know of.

The killer is his infantry morale and panzer morale is very low and has no core to punch holes in SHC lines. Plus MT's lack of post 41 exp coupled with Kamil exp. Kamil knows how to build a low arm pt army. He lost 100 arm pts vs me and it had little effect on his army.

turn 72

Manpower Pts over run during 1942 = 281
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp: 10
Divisions: 60
Brigades: 65
SU: 13
AP total: 1725

SHC OOB = 5.6 million. I was unable to stay on the offensive because of the conversion/ammo/morale ect ect bugs and should have won the game but that's another story and old news.

MT does have a clean game going in his favor.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3146382&mpage=4&key=

< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/23/2013 10:39:04 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/29/2013 9:01:02 PM

Michael T

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End Axis T39 (12th Mar 1942) Snow

The Soviets continue to withdraw across the front except for directly in front of Moscow. They pull back just far enough so most of our Infantry can't get involved in any assaults. Only the Mech units can reach the line to attack.

This turn we took great pleasure in destroying one of the Gd Cav Corp that wrought havoc during the blizzard, revenge was sweet.

I have finally settled on a plan of action for the coming summer. Obviously it must remain secret for now. But it will become apparent once the summer starts.

His OOB is still increasing only very slowly. It now sits at 5.81m.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/29/2013 10:05:24 PM

Peltonx

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Its the quality of your and his units(morale) that matters. Brian has the lowest OOB of the last 10 games I have played and he is the only one still playing.

Your Snow offensive so far is very poor, but it has more to do with Kamils skill then yours. As we know as GHC we can only take what we are given after October 41.

Its still your game to lose MT, but clearly Kamil is out playing you so far the snow season.

Panzer numbers are very low.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/29/2013 10:06:44 PM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/30/2013 2:42:29 AM

Michael T

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Pelton I took a pounding during the blizzard. My options for a snow counter offensive were very limited. I fought with everything I had. As such most units are way under strength. But I have a salient east of Voronezh and a Red Army under 6 million. To be honest I am pleased with what little progress I have made in the snow. I might have a broken leg and a smashed jaw but I think Kamil's back is broken. This is a heavyweight stand up fight. We are both battered wrecks after the blizzard. The summer of 42 will be the critical fight.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/30/2013 5:37:53 AM

Flaviusx

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Pelton, MT is in splendid shape here, and you are stuck on this idee fixe that morale is everything. It is not. The Soviets are giving up precious ground that they can hardly afford, and MT now has a sizable bridgehead past the Don before spring of 42. Kamil's back is up against the wall here, with a replacement situation that has reached critical levels.

Even this very modest snow counteroffensive is enough to keep the Red Army on hold in terms of size. He's got to make a stand somewhere very soon and it's difficult to see how he can avoid getting pounded to pieces during the 42 summer campaign.

You have your own script of how to play the game; MT's script is different, and I like his better. Although admittedly he took full advantage of an opener in 41 that will no longer be available. But the cheese is over and MT is now playing it out the old fashioned way, no gimmicks, and I applaud him for that. And for showing that it can be done.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/30/2013 10:07:06 AM

Peltonx

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MT-Flaviusx.

I am simply going by my past exp and a few others that have tried the same in AAR's

This has in the past, even with better then historical results land wise and higher then normal SHC KIA's resulted in below average 1942 snow/summer offensives. Which resulted with the GHC resigning or losing in late 44, because of lower then normal GHC infantry morale, which resulted in higher loses of manpower/equipment over the 42 summer to 45.

I do see clearly that MT is tying as have many others in the past to play "historically", but the results have always been disappointing to say the least to date.

The past results as I have stated have little to do with player skills and more to do with a very poorly designed blizzard and way to much of the game based on morale.

I also see that if 1.07.10 had been in effect this would be over already, because of morale not working as it should have. So the results to date have little to do with player skills (both are very skilled) and more to do with NM "bugs". Which after a very long battle has finally been fixed.

I very much admire MT for being old school and tying to hold his ground.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 8/30/2013 10:18:56 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 8/30/2013 9:19:35 PM

Michael T

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quote:

I also see that if 1.07.10 had been in effect this would be over already, because of morale not working as it should have.

I certainly agree with that.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/1/2013 10:35:46 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Michael T

quote:

I also see that if 1.07.10 had been in effect this would be over already, because of morale not working as it should have.

I certainly agree with that.

Thats simply not possible, when anti matter and matter combine it should be the end of the universe should it not?

We are still here are we not?

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/4/2013 9:54:54 PM

Michael T

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The first mud turn is done. I will post a full report and map at the end of the next turn.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/8/2013 2:16:41 AM

Michael T

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End Axis T43 (9th April 1942) Mud

Not a lot to report. Just preparing for the summer offensive. All Mech units are 80 plus morale now. Infantry roughly 40% 70 morale or above. Another 30% between 65 and 70 morale. Most of the rest between 60 and 65 morale, just a handful below 60 morale.

Tank numbers are starting to improve. OOB numbers are good. Airforce good.

Bring on spring

��

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/16/2013 10:58:15 PM

Michael T

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End Axis T47 (7th May 1942) Clear

The Spring offensive kicks off. The purpose of this attack was to rebuild my confidence in the ability of the German Army to penetrate the Soviet defenses in enough depth to unhinge a line. I think that has been acheived but it remains to be seen what Kamil's responce will be.

If I can pull off this kind of penetration in early summer then things will get very interesting.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/16/2013 11:54:25 PM

Flaviusx

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Bear in mind there's still some mud to be had before things clear up for good. So Kamil can probably patch this up temporarily.

But Kamil is plainly in trouble and the Red Army is even weaker than I had expected it to be at this stage. His entire fortified section in the center has been compromised, and I don't think he can get another one built up before June.

His only hope is to collapse on your panzer ball with everything and forget about trying to carpet the entire front the way he has. He doesn't need anything like the amount of stuff he's got in the north and south to defend it. A single line of infantry will stop you on 2/3 of the front where you have no mobile forces whatsoever.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/17/2013 12:08:19 AM

Peltonx

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MT unlike sapper and Bomazz (+ anothers) is using the tried and true panzer blob strategy in 42.

The only way he could have handed the game to Kamil, was make the same mistakes they did.

MT can still blow it so to speak. But as long as he plays it conservatively using tried and true tactics for 1942, he should be fine.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 9/17/2013 12:09:28 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/17/2013 1:20:04 AM

hugh04

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The russian in this game has played very conservatively. I look at the length of the german lines and see many areas that could be counterattacked hard and successfully. I have been shaking my head on this game for awhile, but it is nice to see that the game engine does extract a price for a full run strategy.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/17/2013 1:33:05 AM

Michael T

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He labours under the strain of knowing he cannot replace his losses should he have his head chopped off. His ARM situation is dire. That is and will remain his problem for the rest of the game.

And (hopefully) he is not privy to this map. Uncertainty plays tricks on the mind. He could not have known the full disposition of my mobile forces till now. And by summer they may well have changed.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/17/2013 2:42:11 AM

Flaviusx

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It's not hard to track the movements of the vast majority of enemy units in this game, given recon spam. You won't get perfect intel, no, but more than enough to identify the bulk of formations. This game in general doesn't allow for a great deal of operational surprise.

In any event, you've tipped your hand and committed your mobile units (save for a single corps near Moscow) and whatever mystery existed is now gone, and he must respond accordingly and swamp the penetration and reduce his commitments to quiet sectors.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/17/2013 3:31:33 AM

Michael T

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True, but as my railhead is close to the front I can shift a lot of guys in 2 turns to the woods around Moscow or the Stalino cities and hit any part of the line with a significant mobile force. I can breakdown units and cloak where the concentration really is.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/20/2013 12:03:23 AM

Peltonx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

It's not hard to track the movements of the vast majority of enemy units in this game, given recon spam. You won't get perfect intel, no, but more than enough to identify the bulk of formations. This game in general doesn't allow for a great deal of operational surprise.

In any event, you've tipped your hand and committed your mobile units (save for a single corps near Moscow) and whatever mystery existed is now gone, and he must respond accordingly and swamp the penetration and reduce his commitments to quiet sectors.

At this pt MT wants Kamil to bring more to the area he is hitting.

The more MT screws around moving panzers the more he losses to movement loses.

Another huge mistake GHC players make in 42 is moving to much!

MT has the upper hand, this thrust now can pocket to the north and south or go east more. MT is in complete control. The only way he can screw up is by moving his tanks 500 miles north or south.

He as he has correctly explained can grind down ( with a few pockets) SHC. He can sit back and say "bring it Kamil".

If you have read the 42 ARR's, its about not being to cute as GHC.

MT simply grind down Kamil and pocket the wings, its not 41.

Get to the Oka make the lines from Oka north solid and play god to the south of Oka.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 9/20/2013 12:05:45 AM >

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/20/2013 1:16:45 AM

Michael T

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Kamil only made one attack on my exposed LAH at the north west at the tip of the salient, thats why the unit was there :) . In the mud turn I reinforced the bulge as best I could with ID. Kamil's mud turn has been delayed due to a rather largish reorg as he has explained in emails. I will be away next week so a short delay in this AAR. I will post another map at the end of my next clear turn (49). Probably in a week or so.

My next move will depend on how Kamil has redeployed in his mud turn.

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 9/28/2013 3:01:01 AM

Michael T

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End Axis T49 (21st May 1942) Clear

The Panzer wrecking ball turns east from the Tsna bridgehead and encircles Tambov, along with 12 ID & 2 IB. I am hopeful this pocket will hold. But it is not certain. Probably at least 100K in it.

The Reds have stripped many areas of their front lines to re-establish some defence in depth in front of the Panzers. This has allowed me to attack in some places where I otherwise could not. Not many casualties inflicted but lots of morale gains ��

Two turns of mud now before another clear turn.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Kamil has done his turn but I can��t download it yet due to some server problems

So not sure if the pocket held or not

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 10/3/2013 3:55:00 AM

Michael T

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Finally was able to get a turn done. The pocket held

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RE: Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil) - 10/13/2013 12:24:20 PM

Michael T

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Kamil and I have decide to end this game here. We have agreed to a draw.

We are both suffering time constraints and to be honest we are both burned out with WITE. We have both been playing it since release and for myself pretty much nothing else for almost 3 years. I need a change.

I have just picked up Civil War II, its looks promising. I am also keen to try out Schwerpunkts War in Europe when it is done.

Its been a fun ride with WITE. No other PC game has captivated me for so long. I may return after a longish break but I am unsure.

I am sure I will catch up with all of you again around the boards elsewhere. See you around.

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