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Re: Appologies - 1/18/2003 11:14:53 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Drongo
[B]I thought I had a saved game from the beta testing that could be easily modified for the test. Unfortunately, it was over-ridden by the latest PBEM game I started.

To re-create from scratch the situation I was thinking of would take a few hours of play just to get started (need to build up some of the IJN bases north of New Guinea, transfer engineers, supplies, create target TFs, move a/c etc). Don't have enough time for all that this weekend. Might try it during the week if I get time.

Mike, are you able to post a copy of what 2X3 specifically asked to see? Might help in getting the examples.

No wuckens is short for "no wucking forries" (transpose the f and w). [/B][/QUOTE]

I'm going to paraphrase Joel's request because I can't figure
out how to copy in and move it to this forum:

"I'm interested in the really terrible attacks which cost lots
of aircraft for little or no result, more than those that simply hit
a 'wrong' Task Force."

I've generalized these as the AI's "suicidally stupid" attacks.
Seems there is supposed to be some descrimination on the AI's
part about making attacks that have virtually no chance of
producing anything but losses for the attacker---and the reports
we've been making have them thinking that it's not functioning.
That's what they want to look into.... I just happened to be the
one talking to Joel when they began to suspect it, and volunteered to start a Thread to illicit some test examples for them.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 31
- 1/19/2003 7:35:03 AM   
Drongo

 

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[QUOTE]"I'm interested in the really terrible attacks which cost lots of aircraft for little or no result, more than those that simply hit a 'wrong' Task Force."
[/QUOTE]

Interesting. That's casting a very wide net.

While looking for an alternative game to test with, I used one which had an allied PM and a Jap Lae (7 hex range). Lae had 3 high quality (75-80 exp) squadrons of A6m2s on CAP. I set an allied squadron of B25s at PM on Naval Attack (6000 ft). There was no escort for them. I had 4 squadrons of PBYs on 100% naval search and 1 squadron of F-5s flying continuous recon of Lae for several turns, prior to setting the B25s on Naval Strike. The intention was to determine the presence and strength of CAP at Lae (average of 48 A6m2s on CAP at any one time).

A small IJN transport TF was sitting in harbour. As soon as the B25s were set on Naval Strike, they went straight for the bait. They made 2 attack runs (first of 12 a/c, second of 9 a/c). 3 A6m2s were damaged. 4 B25s were shot down and 7 were damaged (in total). They hit 2 of the 4 transports with bombs.

I did not think this would interest 2X3 as :
1) The range was very short.
2) While the B25s suffered about 50% casualties, their durability meant they only lost 4 a/c.
3) The majority of each strike got through despite being outnumbered 4 to 1 (typical of allied bombers).
4) They hit half the transports in the TF (typical of allied bombers).

Hardly a suicide mission but you'd still be pissed at the risk they took (since I had placed another IJN TF at sea, 12 hexes away and without CAP. It was definitely spotted but not attacked).

Might be nice if Matrix or 2X3 could comment to save players making the effort to collect and send examples that could just end up being dismissed for one reason or another.

_____________________________

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drink more beer.

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Post #: 32
- 1/19/2003 12:47:24 PM   
CommC

 

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I agree that this may be a bug that has crept in. Before v2.2, unescorted IJN LB bombers would not attack a naval target that had any (even a modest) CAP. Now they attack (to the extreme of their range) even when a CAP is present over the target.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 33
- 1/19/2003 2:33:12 PM   
Joel Billings


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Drongo
[B]Interesting. That's casting a very wide net.

Might be nice if Matrix or 2X3 could comment to save players making the effort to collect and send examples that could just end up being dismissed for one reason or another. [/B][/QUOTE]


At this point we haven't gotten any saves. I would like to get saves of unescorted attacks against seemingly well protected targets, especially when there are other targets that appear to be available. Long range is good, but I'll take short range as well. In fact the situation you described above would be great.

We've already realized that the uncoordination of strikes against naval TF's at a base was higher than we intended, and have made an adjustment for that in WitP. If it tests out ok, that change will no doubt get into the next UV patch. Now we'd like to look into the target selection and how it is impacted by enemy CAP and friendly escort availability. So please, if you've got one, send me a save at [email]2by3@2by3games.com[/email]. Thanks.

Joel

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 34
- 1/19/2003 3:19:59 PM   
Deathifier

 

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Does this include friendly bombers bombing friendly transports?

I've just managed to generate a situation (as USN) where I have:

2 Transport TF's unloading a pile of stuff to a Jap Held Shortland Island.
3 CV's and a CVE (the Long Island) with about 3/4 their total AC following the transports.

2 Squads of P-38G's flying out of Lunga on LRCAP over the transports.

A pile of Bombers in Lunga on Port Attack against Shortland Island, who've been bombing the port into oblivion as well as whatever ships the AI has docked there. Primarily Medium bombers right now though, as the B-17E's and B-24D's fly out fine, bomb fine (no more enemy CAP over target now) and fly back with 1/4 of their aircraft damaged...

What happens is the Bombers that are currently set for Port Attack may or may not bomb the transports instead - after a fresh restart of UV they made a small Port Bombing run, then gathered just about every avaialble aircraft to go and bomb one of the transport TF's.

I'm using a customised scenario though, basically Scen 17 with a bunch of USN aircraft and ships I don't want removed - no changes to the IJN side.

If it'll be useful I'll send the save in :)

- Deathifier

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 35
- 1/19/2003 3:36:04 PM   
Joel Billings


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Sure, we'd be interested in looking at friendly fire, although that could be a different issue so we still need the saves for attacks against enemy TF's.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 36
- 1/19/2003 3:45:31 PM   
Drongo

 

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Posted by Joel Billings
[QUOTE]Long range is good, but I'll take short range as well. In fact the situation you described above would be great. [/QUOTE]

No wuckens.

I'll shoot you an emailed attachment tomorrow.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 37
- 1/20/2003 7:50:57 AM   
CommC

 

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Joel,
I have sent you a save where unescorted IJN Nells attacked a TF protected by CAP. This is from the Coral Sea scenario #1. Human Allied, Computer IJN.

Here is the combat report:

Air attack on TF, near Cairns at 7,56

Japanese aircraft
G3M Nell x 9

Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell x 2 destroyed
G3M Nell x 7 damaged


Allied Ships
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage

Attacking Level Bombers:
4 x G3M Nell at 200 feet
0 x G3M Nell at 200 feet
3 x G3M Nell at 200 feet


Hope this helps.

Thanks,
CommC

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 38
- 1/20/2003 8:07:51 AM   
CapAndGown


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by CommC
[B]Joel,
I have sent you a save where unescorted IJN Nells attacked a TF protected by CAP.

Allied Ships
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
[/B][/QUOTE]

And your complaint?????:confused:

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 39
- 1/20/2003 8:55:27 AM   
CommC

 

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I don't have a complaint with these results. I sent them in because Joel wanted an example of unescorted bombers attacking into CAP.

I think these results are probably close to historical, but perhaps it was only luck on the part of the IJN that the CAP was light, allowing them to complete their attack successfully.

The issue at hand is the case of unescorted bombers flying into heavy CAP to attack insignificant naval targets. In the case I just posted, I think the IJN commander is completely justified to risk his Nells against a light CAP to bag a carrier.

But apparenlty this situation is rare and many people are seeing unescorted bombers flying into heavy CAP attacking minor naval targets and taking a beating. I personally haven't seen this yet, but I will send it in if I see it. Maybe it is pretty rare.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 40
BAD EXAMPLE - 1/20/2003 8:57:21 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by CommC
[B]Joel,
I have sent you a save where unescorted IJN Nells attacked a TF protected by CAP. This is from the Coral Sea scenario #1. Human Allied, Computer IJN.

Here is the combat report:

Air attack on TF, near Cairns at 7,56

Japanese aircraft
G3M Nell x 9

Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell x 2 destroyed
G3M Nell x 7 damaged


Allied Ships
CV Lexington, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage

Attacking Level Bombers:
4 x G3M Nell at 200 feet
0 x G3M Nell at 200 feet
3 x G3M Nell at 200 feet


Hope this helps.

Thanks,
CommC [/B][/QUOTE]

THIS DOES NOT HELP! It's not even an example of a poor target choice on the part of the AI. Losing a few Nells to put 2 torpedoes into a US carrier is a great swap for the Japanese.
If your Nells had ignored the CV, and instead attacked a transport and a couple of Sub Chasers covered by base CAP at Cairns, then you would have an example of a problem worth sending to 2by3.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 41
- 1/20/2003 9:29:44 AM   
Ron Saueracker


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I've got a number of games going. I'll keep my eye open for a good example and send a save.

Cheers

Ron

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Post #: 42
- 1/20/2003 9:52:50 AM   
CommC

 

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Granted, this is not exactly what we are looking for, but it is an example of unescorted bombers attacking a naval target protected by CAP. Apparently, this did not happen in versions before 2.2.

Whether this is a bug or not is another discussion or which AI behavior is better, I don't know.

I think most would agree, if the AI chooses to risk bombers by attacking unescorted a capital naval target protected by some light CAP, thats OK. What we are looking for is unescorted bombers attacking a minor naval target protected by heavy CAP. As I said before, I haven't seen this yet, but I'll keep an eye out for it and snag the save if I do. Obviously, some people have reported seeing this.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 43
- 1/20/2003 3:16:31 PM   
Veer


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[QUOTE]Originally posted by CommC
[B]I think most would agree, if the AI chooses to risk bombers by attacking unescorted a capital naval target protected by some light CAP, thats OK. What we are looking for is unescorted bombers attacking a minor naval target protected by heavy CAP. As I said before, I haven't seen this yet, but I'll keep an eye out for it and snag the save if I do. Obviously, some people have reported seeing this. [/B][/QUOTE]

The question the should be asked, is how did the IJN AI 'know' that the CAP was light? I mean, from the time the Lexington was spotted to the time the strike was launched from Rabaul, to the time the bombers actually reached the Lex, the situation reported by the recon plane could have changed dramtically.

So is the descision to launch dependent on the aggressiveness of the Squadron leader ? Attacking the Lex at such a distance would be quite a risk. Or is that the Nells launched regardless of wheather there was heavy CAP or not (not something they could know) and were simply lucky that upon arriving at the target CAP was light?

Or are targeting descisions made completely differently? Like if you put your Nells on Naval attack is it assumed that they are airborne on 'sweep' mode looking for ships to attack, and having spotted the Lex and noticed there was light CAP decided to attack? An on the spot descision as it were?

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Post #: 44
AN ATTEMPT AT SOME GUIDELINES - 1/20/2003 7:07:44 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

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Seems to be a fair amount of confusion over what constitutes
a STUPID attack as opposed to just a RISKY one. Some things
to consider...

Your reccon aircraft WILL get a fairly accurate picture of the CAP
over a TF. To do their jobs, they have to maintain contact with
the TF for a period to determine it's base course and speed (it
might be doing a zig-zag---no good reporting it's course as 180
if it turns to 140 10 minutes later.) During this time the scout
will normally get a reasonable notion of the CAP strength (if any)
from trying to dodge it---and as CAP is mounted on a rotating
basis it won't change greatly in most instances.

No matter what your preference, if your reccon spots enemy CARRIERS you are almost assuredly going to TRY to strike
them. The AI considers CV's to be TOP priority, and will try
more desperate measures to get a shot at them! This "design
choice" is NOT currently "on the table" and will remain for the
forseeable future. Only problem they may look at here is the
AI's seeming reluctance to match potential escorts up with
such strikes. The number of complaints seem to indicate that
there MIGHT be a problem in that regard.

STUPID comes into play when something like this happens. You
spot a TF (let's make it a CV TF) that might be coming towards
Moresby, so in your next turn you put all Moresby's bombers on
naval strike, with half the fighters on escort. Suprise..., you
guessed right and it actually comes toward you during the night!
You watch eagerly as your PBY's pick it up again, and your naval
strikes start launching. And then you get reports of this kind of
nonsense:
1) Your SBD's attacked the Carrier TF, but no fighters went
along, and they were totally shreaded by the CAP.
2) Your B-17's ignored the CV TF and decided to bomb a
couple of transports in Rabaul Harbor---covered by 50 Zeros.
3) your 2 squadrons of B-25's decide the really vital target
is a DD with some MSW's off Lae. One of your escort units
agrees, and they merrily beat up this unfortunate force with
minor losses. NOTE that this is NOT A MISTAKE. The target
they chose was 90 degrees away from the bearing to the
CV TF---they didn't "miss" it, they weren't even looking for
it.
4) Your A-20's actually go to the carriers and bring some of
the escorts with them. They manage to get a hit on a CA
while taking heavy casualties.
5) ..But your Hudson's head to the Shortlands to make an
extended range strike on a tanker and some escorts CAP'd
by some Rufe's. They are driven off with some 40% loses
and a single hit to show for it.
6) Your Beauforts make a legitimate mistake and attack some
Transports in a TF following the CV's. They do some good and
take some loses.
This is the kind of thing that is worrysome. The AI often can't
decide what is a legitimate and dangerous target NOW! And
it scatters it's efforts all over the map on things that could be
safely ignored or put off until tomorrow.

It's other big candidate for the STUPID label is that it seems to
feel it HAS to make a "Naval Strike" if any TF is spotted within
range. The following would be an example:
As the Japanese Commander, you feel that the US carriers
might be about to launch an attack on Gili-Gili or the Shortlands.
So you manuever your CV TF southeast from Rabaul to a
position that you can strike this force from if it shows up. You
have your Val's resting and doing ASW, your Zeros are on CAP
with some allocated to escort "just in case". You don't expect
to sight anything yet, as you are moving to gain a position of
advantage---but just in case you see something worthwhile or
have miss-timed the US effort, you have your Kate's on "naval strike". At first light, a float plane from Buna sights an Allied
CA force in Moresby. With New Guinea between, it's no threat
to you, and can't be one today. But because Moresby is just
within the extended range of your Kate's, guess what happens.
If you guessed 50 dead Kate's ground to bits making a suicidal
and unescorted strike against THE ONLY PLACE IN THE WHOLE
THEATRE YOU KNOW IS CONSISTANTLY COVERED BY SWARMS OF
CAP..., "you win a cookie."
That's the other big problem. The AI doesn't seem to be able to
descriminate between actual threats/opportunities and doing
something suicidally stupid. It's supposed to do this, and it
isn't working. That's the kind of report they are looking for---
ones that will help them see if there's a bug that is allowing
either "attacks that make NO SENSE" or ones that splatter the
effort all over the Pacific when there is only one REAL THREAT to
be dealt with. If you have examples like this---please send them.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 45
Test example - 1/21/2003 6:35:56 PM   
Drongo

 

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This is effectively a repeat of the test game I ran a few days ago. I am sending the save to Joel but I thought I would put the AAR on the public forum for people to see.

Situation.
Allied base at Port Moresby. 1 squadron of F5 a/c flying recon over Lae every turn (1-2 a/c at 20,000 ft). 2 squadrons of PBYs on 100% naval search at 6000 ft. 1 squadron of B25s (exp 70) on naval attack. No escort provided.

Japanese base at Lae with 4 A6m2 squadrons (on 50% CAP) at 9000 ft. 1 Japanese Transport TF in Lae harbour (2 DD, 2 PG, 4AP), 7 hex range from Port Moresby. 1 Japanese Transport TF at sea (2DD, 4AP), 7 hex range from Port Moresby.

Targets are virtually identical, range is the same. Recon missions over Lae were flown the day before and also on the same day as the Naval Strike (and was intercepted by a large CAP each time). Both targets were spotted several times by allied naval search during the AAR turn.

The AI routine sent 2 large strikes against the Lae TF and one small strike against the TF at sea.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/07/42

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Air attack on TF, near Lae at 9,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45

Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 9

no losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D Mitchell x 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
AP Asakasan Maru, Bomb hits 1
PG Nikkai Maru
AP Mogamigawa Maru, Bomb hits 1

Attacking Level Bombers:
4 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet
1 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet
4 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air attack on TF at 14,34


Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 3


Allied aircraft losses
B-25D Mitchell x 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Shiratsuyu

Attacking Level Bombers:
3 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Air attack on TF, near Lae at 9,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 44

Allied aircraft
B-25D Mitchell x 12

no losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D Mitchell x 3 destroyed
B-25D Mitchell x 11 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Asanagi
AP Asakasan Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Attacking Level Bombers:
2 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet
2 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet
4 x B-25D Mitchell at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual allied a/c lost : 4 B25s dest, 10 damaged (from 16 a/c). Morale is now 46. You could imagine what would have happened to Hudsons.

As allied medium bombers do, they made the TF in harbour pay.

_____________________________

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drink more beer.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 46
GOOD EXAMPLE, DRONGO - 1/21/2003 8:10:27 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

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This is exactly the kind of "brainless stupidity" that needs to
be ripped from the AI's heart. Two identical targets, at an
identical range, with only one (the one at sea moving) a threat
to do anything NOW! Had the total effort of the B-25's been
directed at the sensible target, it would have been pretty much
"trashed" with relatively light losses. Leaving the B-25's still
operational the next day in case the force at Lae threatened
to actually DO something.

Instead the moronic AI sends most of the effort against a well
protected force THAT ISN'T DOING ANYTHING! And now if there
is a threat tomorrow, the player has nothing of consequence
left to meet it. And they wonder that the player's get upset
and want some stronger control of their missions.

Stronger control of "naval strikes" IS NOT going to happen, for
a number of design choice reasons. But 2by3 is upset by the
way the AI is performing as a surrigate commander. They want
to make the AI stronger and more descriminating in it's target
choices for both sides. Which is why efforts such as your's are
important. They provide the raw data to see why the AI is
functioning like a brain dead hamster on drugs instead of
making the rational choices it's supposed to be making...

THANK YOU! THANK YOU! THANK YOU!

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 47
Does this fit the bill - 1/22/2003 10:30:32 PM   
fcooke

 

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I've got a game against IJN as computer, scen 17, where in Mar 1943 it decides to send raids of unescorted Bettys and Nells down from Truk to attack my 5 CVs in 3 task forces sitting at whatever the base just south of Buka is. Of course this group of CVs had over 100 wildcats on CAP and shredded the 6ish odd strikes that came it's way. I don't think any one raid had more than 30 bombers in it. Think the IJN had lost over 100 bombers in the end - they didn't even turn away even when taking horrible casualties (aren't they supposed to do that now). I don't have an exact save but could go back and recreate from a save a few turns ago if this is of value to Matrix/2x3. I even think there was a nice juicy unescorted cargo TF sitting at Buka at the time. On a final note the very next day the AI sent whatever penny packets of Bettys and Nells down again (6-10 planes each) - you would think the AI would have got the joke by then.....

Please let me know if I should recreate or if this is not what is sought.

Regards,
Frank

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 48
- 1/23/2003 12:30:02 AM   
Joel Billings


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This could help us if you can get us a save. Thanks.

Joel

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Post #: 49
- 1/23/2003 7:11:50 AM   
fcooke

 

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File should be attached - not quite as lopsided as original but pretty bad. If there's anything else you need, please give a shout.

Regards,
Frank

Attachment (1)

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 50
WRONG ADDRESS. - 1/23/2003 11:04:04 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by fcooke
[B]File should be attached - not quite as lopsided as original but pretty bad. If there's anything else you need, please give a shout.

Regards,
Frank [/B][/QUOTE]


PLEASE SEND THE FILES TO: [email]2by3@2by3games.com[/email]

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 51
- 1/23/2003 3:02:24 PM   
jrcar

 

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Ok what about this one both in the same turn:

Air attack on TF at 38,48

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 22

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 75

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty x 10 destroyed
G4M1 Betty x 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat x 1 damaged

LT R. Bull of VF-2 is credited with kill number 9



Air attack on TF at 38,48

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 7
G4M1 Betty x 10

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 63

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero x 3 destroyed
G4M1 Betty x 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat x 2 destroyed

LT J. Sutherland of VF-8 is credited with kill number 8

LCDR R.Fukada of EII-1 Daitai is KILLED


I could maybe forgive the first strike, the second is incompetence!

cheers

Rob

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 52
AI strikes - 1/23/2003 5:01:20 PM   
entemedor

 

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jrcar, did the TF at 38,48 include any carriers? (I assume answer is yes, given the strong Wildcat CAP).

Then, that second strike with just 7 Zeros and 10 Bettys would be completely justified in my own opinion, and is just the kind of 'sacrifice attack' that a Japanese war-time commander would order in the same circumstances.

A single torpedo hit on an enemy carrier would have greater influence -by far- in the war situation that the loss of some 17 aircraft. The risk is justified; who knows if the CAP will be found napping, or if a single Samurai-minded pilot will be able to crash himself on a flat-top?

Just remember the last strike by the survivors of HIRYU air group at Midway; by any logic, that pitiful handful of planes should have been butchered by the CAP, however it was enough to finish-off YORKTOWN.

Of course, I agree with you that such an attack is not always justified by the target's size or potential threat; but against carriers or battleships? Yes, by any means.

Entemedor

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 53
- 1/23/2003 10:05:44 PM   
denisonh


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Were the attacks in the same "impulse" (morning or afternoon)?

Sometimes the strikes get "seperated", and are resolved as two seperate atttacks instead of one.

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