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RE: (T27) 19 – 25 December 1941

 
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RE: (T27) 19 – 25 December 1941 - 5/17/2014 5:13:14 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: bigbaba
looking at the battle results in which you mauled his divisions shows us that axis units in clear and unfortified areas are punching balls for a good soviet player. his biggest mistake is to let you attack him in the open without any defensive preperations. that means even bigger german loses and free guard divisions for you to play with in 42.

in my own game as axis against bomazz (?) he stoppd me well before moscow and has very little loses (2 millions) so i decided to stop pushing foreward in winter (just attacks to get moral and lower his units moral) and begin the creation of a fort line with every possible terrain defensive advantage to have a level 2 fort line as fallback line.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

quote:

his biggest mistake is to let you attack him in the open without any defensive preperations.


Agree with this assessment. As soon as Axis troops are in level 2/3 fortifications or cities/urban hexes it gets quite tough for the Russians. It certainly is not possible to just do hasty attacks.

Sigups counterattacks are very good. Lots of routed units.


While SigUp may have a different view, I'm starting to wonder if his victory at Rzhev and reaching the Moskva-Volga canal was less of a gain than it appeared. Added to my counterattacks around Tula, and I think he is now badly stretched around Moscow and the only way he can keep a solid line is by committing everything. As in the last update, it was clear from air recon, that he had used up all his reserves that were sitting around north and west of Moscow.

Now it depends on his plans for 1942. If he's after Moscow, I guess it makes sense to try and hold me as far east as he can so he has a good jump off position, if he is planning to go for industry, population, VP in the south, he may be as well to give me what I am fighting for and shorten his lines.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

I just had the same problem with my IL-2 "upgrading" to Yak-1. Of course the AI chose my best air unit with 450+ kills for this. I think the upgrade logic is a little bit too random.


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael
quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott
I think the upgrade logic is a little bit too random.

Not for long...


Thats a relief. I tend to leave on the auto-upgrade as mostly it works out ok and saves on AP, but that one stood out, especially as I was trying to find my nice shiny new IL-2 Gds formation.

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Post #: 151
T28 (25 – 31 December) - 5/17/2014 5:24:46 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
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25 – 31 December: I can look? - Can't I?

The final week of December saw both sides exchanging attacks, and in some sectors the Axis forces starting to fall back.

Behind the lines, Soviet partisans hit their rail nets around Minsk, Velikie Luki and cut all the lines across the Dniepr from Kiev to Cherkassy.



However, in the north, Stavka ordered a switch of tactics with elements of the Leningrad network ordered to attack Finnish units around Povlovo. Using hit and run tactics and selecting isolated formations, by the end of the week, the Axis had lost 423 men for no losses amongst the partisans [1]. Even if Soviet forces in the north were on the defensive and starved of resources, it was a useful reminder to the Finns that Leningrad had not been forgotten.



On the main battle front, the pattern and tempo of combat varied from sector to sector. North of Moscow, the Germans retook Povarovo from 52 Army but in doing so they had to commit all their reserves.



In consequence North West Front's 22 and 55 Armies went over to the offensive around Klin threatening the flanks of the German forces committed at Povarovo. Kalinin Front continued to probe for weak spots and prevent the Germans releasing formations to deal with either NW or Leningrad Fronts.

In the course of these operations, 20 Army caught elements of 38 Infantry Corps off guard, not only breaking the German lines but being able to commit 92 Tank Brigade into the gap. This overran a hastily constructed German fortified zone and forced several Luftwaffe airbases to evacuate. For the first time, Kalinin Front had broken into the German rear.



Western Front mostly remained on the defensive after German counterattacks drove back 3 and 10 Armies from around Kaluga.



However, south of Kaluga, Leningrad and Bryansk Fronts continued to press the Germans back. 1st Shock reached the outskirts of Peremyshl and 2 Shock threatened Belev.

The main action took place around Orel. The 25th saw a heavy German counterattack that drove in the advanced guards probing for crossings of the Zusha



However, the full weight of 34, 43 and 50 Armies fell on the Germans almost reaching the outskirts of Orel. Among their problems was 10 Panzer was badly handled on the approach to Orel, leaving 30 German tanks burning in the snow covered fields.




(Soviet cavalry passing a destroyed Pzr III near Orel)

The only thing that stood between them and disaster was the defense by their 4 Mountain Division south of Orel where two sequential Soviet assaults were driven back.


[2]

On the Kharkov sector the Germans fell back again, but first launched a series of counterattacks on SW Front's spearheads. As a result, SW Front opted to rest and consolidate on its current lines rather than carry on pursuing the retreating Germans.

By contrast, the Voroshilovgrad sector saw both sides fully committed.



German counterattacks took Rodakovo and Lutugino, but again they had to draw in their reserves for this operation. In consequence, 9, 18 and 54 were able to make significant gains and inflict heavy losses on the mostly Rumanian forces in this sector.

Around Rostov, both sides remained mostly on the defensive. Caucasus Front lacked the power to dislodge the substantial German forces on the lower Don, but Stavka hoped this sector might be abandoned if the offensive to the north continued to make steady gains.

OOB

By the end of 1941, the Red Army had just over 6 million men, almost 60,000 guns, 4,000 tanks and 6,500 aircraft in European Russia.



Of these, 1.6 million were in fresh formations forming up in the rear (600,000 directly linked to Stavka and the rest in the 4 Military Districts),1.6 million were in the 4 Fronts in action around Moscow (NW, Kalinin, Western, Leningrad), 1 million were in the northern Ukraine (Bryansk and SW) and 1.4 in the southern Ukraine and Caucasus (Southern, Trans Cauc, Cauc) [3]. Volkhov front had 400,000 covering the front from Kalinin to Lake Onega in the Arctiv.

Review

By the end of the fourth week of the Soviet counteroffensive for all the victories and losses inflicted, very little ground had been retaken.




Ironically, the largest territorial gain had been by SW Front where very little actual fighting had taken place. For all the victories around Moscow, the Germans were still firmly lodged to the north of the city, Kaluga was a major bastion and while the victories at Orel were welcome, they did little to convince Stavka that the city was safe.

However, there was some evidence that the Germans would struggle to defend their current lines. Their counterattacks around Orel and at Povarovo had stripped them of their operational reserves, allowing both NW and Bryansk Fronts to make significant gains.

Losses over the 4 weeks were heavy for both sides. The Soviets had lost 155,000 men, 640 tanks (half in the last week alone) and 550 aircraft. Axis losses were 267,000 men, 330 tanks and 140 aircraft. More importantly, the Red Army could replace its losses. In the 4 weeks it had grown by 330,000 men and maintained tank and aircraft numbers, and, despite production problems, had added 9,000 artillery pieces.

The Axis had been reduced by 300,000 men (so effectively no replacements?), 1,000 guns and 100 tanks.

Soviet production was still badly disrupted by the evacuations in the summer and autumn. However, almost all factories originally west of the Volga were now relocated to the Urals [4].

Aircraft production remained high and 550 Hurricanes and P40s had been received via lend-lease. Tank production was more problematic and only limited lend-lease was being received. Of these the Valentines were proving their value unlike the Matildas.




(Hurricanes near Moscow)

In general armaments, and specifically artillery, were the main problem. Manpower reserves were adequate, even given the build up of forces for the spring and summer 1942 battles and truck reserves were dropping but still sufficient for current operations.



Commentary (still fussing about 1942)

One thing I am trying to do is to impose order on my rear area and think in terms of which units exist for which purpose. I have basically four types.

First, is a collection of rifle divisions that I am using to replace low morale front line units. These are effectively being rotated into and out of the combat armies and attached to whichever MD makes most sense. While rebuilding their morale, they are of course building up my rear defenses.

Second are a number of armies, some fully formed, some slowly filling out, and attached to either Moscow or Volga MD, What I basically intend to do is to slot these into the front at the end of the Winter battles so that my main units (Leningrad Front and the various Cavalry Armies can be pulled back into reserve). That way, if, as I expect, my front is breached and pocketed, what is lost is run of the mill rifle divisions, not my better units.

Third are a collection of armies directly under Stavka. At the moment this is 3 and 4 Shock and a freshly raised combined arms army. These are going to be my strategic reserve, and I'll use them to organise the first wave of tank corps (till the Tank Armies can be used).

Fourth is the deep rear. Over the last 2 turns, I've raised about 20 rifle brigades and will add a lot more over January-February. These have 2 roles. One is to build up a final defensive belt in some key sectors, such as Stalingrad and along the Oka and the rail lines running east from Moscow. The other is that as armies are chewed up in pockets, they are a ready made set of replacements which can be fed into the front, keeping my basic plan of keeping my best formations out of the front line.

Of course, always so much easier to write than keep to, but in addition to using the MD for a geographical split, they are also each playing a different role in terms of how I plan to use the unit in the longer term.

[1] – pretty wierd, I'll admit
[2] – this captured my basic problem, if I keep enough back for an effective exploitation I am on the margins of victory/defeat in the initial attack. Here, if I'd committed all 4 Cavalry Corps in one go, I would have taken their position but I hoped that 2 would be enough and I could then take advantage with fresh forces.
[3] – roughly half of the Trans-Caucasus Front formations are locked for another turn on the Iranian border. I guess they will be in combat by the third week of January, which has some bearing on my plans for the offensive in the Stalino-Rostov sector (especially as there are no Panzers in that sector).
[4] – all I have to move are a cluster of armament and truck factories in Stalingrad. Even the 1-2 point residual factories have all been shifted eastwards.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 5/18/2014 7:44:49 AM >


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T29 (1 - 6 January) - 5/22/2014 1:03:24 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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1-6 January 1942: You are not so fair, Midnight

The arrival of the new year saw heated debates in the Stavka. Vatunin (NW Front), Koniev (Kalinin) and Mertsekov (Western) were all accused of treachery and sabotaging the offensive [1]. All argued that the Germans had fully committed all their available forces and that there was no scope to carry on the offensive. Around Klin, German counterattacks had regained the ground recently taken by 55 Army leaving 52 Army badly exposed at Ilksha.

After a bad tempered discussion, all three Fronts were ordered over to the defense. Western Front was ordered to use 4 Army to cover Kaluga and to use 10 Army to allow 1 Shock to rest and redeploy.

The Soviet command was not just worried at the stalling of the counterattack but also that German determination to hold the Kalinin-Klin sector meant they intended to use this sector as the base for a renewed attempt to seize Moscow [2].

However, even as the rows raged in the Kremlin, the war carried on.

Orel was now designated the main Soviet target and partisan units hit the German rail network around Bryansk even as the Germans themselves again attacked Bryansk Front's spearheads before pulling back. At the same time, the exhausted units of 1st Shock faced their first defeats as a German offensive forced them back from the Oka



In the south, the Germans committed 47 Panzer Corps from their reserve (11 and 17Pzr, 25 Mot), stalling the Soviet offensive around Voroshilovgrad. In addition, a surprise attack across the lower Don, drove back elements of 49 Army.



Despite these setbacks, the Soviet offensive continued to drive forward around Orel.



Leningrad Front pulled 1 Shock into reserve but 2 Shock made steady gains, badly handling 24 Panzer Corp's 16 Motorised Division.




(elements of 1 Shock have their first break from combat for a month)

To the south, Bryansk Front continued to drive deep into the German lines. In particular, 34 Army exacted brutal revenge for the successes of 4 Mountain Division in the previous battles. Hit by 3 cavalry corps, supported by a massive commitment of the VVS, even such well trained troops broke and ran.




(T-60 in action in support of 34 Army)

With the German reserves estimated to be fully committed to the Moscow battles and around Voroshilovgrad, SW Front returned to the offensive. 5 and 26 Armies broke the sector held by 17 Infantry Corps (a mixture of German and Hungarian formations) opening up the potential for a major victory in the Kursk-Orel-Bryansk sector.



The flank of SW Front's renewed offensive was covered by S Front's 51 Army. Taking advantage of the commitment of the German armour reserves at Voroshilovgrad, elements of 55 Infantry Corps were scattered and pressure applied to the weak line of infantry divisions trying to hold the open Steppe.

Overall

The Germans paid a high price for their armoured counterattacks. They lost just over 80,000 men, 120 tanks and 50 aircraft. Soviet losses were 40,000 men, 124 tanks and 200 aircraft.



Overall, a net of 100,000 men and 3,000 guns were added to the Red Army despite these losses.

[1] This was the charge levelled at the commanders of the Volkhov and Leningrad Fronts in reality, combined with Mekhlis leading a NKVD investigation.
[2] I can't think of any other reason for the substantial commitment of German forces NW of Moscow, there must be a complete Panzer Army maintaining their defense on that sector.

< Message edited by loki100 -- 5/22/2014 2:07:51 PM >


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RE: T29 (1 - 6 January) - 5/22/2014 1:37:49 PM   
morvael


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Lovely AAR. I like that the ground gains are reasonable and that the Germans stand fast in some places.

I have to update cpt flam's/mine AAR, but due to all efforts (read: free time) being concentrated on 1.08, I can't do that now.

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Post #: 154
RE: T29 (1 - 6 January) - 5/22/2014 2:08:31 PM   
jwolf

 

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The winter fighting is brutal, very heavy on both sides.  As a spectator, I love the give and take, but it must be nervewracking for both players!

SigUp has been able to do some counterattacks even in December; I am wondering what his capabilities will be in January when his CVs will start to improve.  For that matter, you're probably wondering the same thing.

The Axis forces do start to get some serious reinforcements but I think they won't get to the front lines until some time in February.  Not sure about the timing.  But I think the "happy days" of the December offensive are over.

Are you getting many (any?) guard units for all your troubles?

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Post #: 155
RE: T29 (1 - 6 January) - 5/22/2014 7:07:51 PM   
gingerbread


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Looking very good. 6M+ points to 7.5M when the mud clears, and that should do it.

Q: Are you getting any positive contribution from the Tank Brigades? I use very few in action, but you seem to be doing fine. The real test will be if your vehicle pool can cover needs in late 1942.


BTW, it will be very expensive to shift Tank Corps from the Shock Armies to Tank Armies if you follow through with that idea. I suggest you do a trial run in a '42 scenario sand box game to see what I mean for yourself.

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Post #: 156
RE: T29 (1 - 6 January) - 5/22/2014 8:35:20 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Lovely AAR. I like that the ground gains are reasonable and that the Germans stand fast in some places.

I have to update cpt flam's/mine AAR, but due to all efforts (read: free time) being concentrated on 1.08, I can't do that now.


I think the mild winter rules are brilliant in their impact ... no thats not true I'm cursing like mad that I can't drive all the way to Smolensk and beyond.

I did a fair bit of testing with AI games, and realised that come Jan the Soviet offensive tends to stall apart from where the Germans are weak. But this is far more interesting than the old routine of 'run 2 hexes per turn', it'll be interesting to see the fall out though. So far SigUp has rarely let me play with the axis allied units, but then he has absorbed both battle and attrition damage on his Germans. So there maybe a longer term price for stalling me so effectively?

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

The winter fighting is brutal, very heavy on both sides. As a spectator, I love the give and take, but it must be nervewracking for both players!

SigUp has been able to do some counterattacks even in December; I am wondering what his capabilities will be in January when his CVs will start to improve. For that matter, you're probably wondering the same thing.

The Axis forces do start to get some serious reinforcements but I think they won't get to the front lines until some time in February. Not sure about the timing. But I think the "happy days" of the December offensive are over.

Are you getting many (any?) guard units for all your troubles?



I fear that somewhere he’ll go back on the offensive (if he wants to). I’ve just spent time on the last turn putting NW Front back onto a defensive footing (Kalinin and Western were already deployed that way) of 3 division in the front, something behind and then another decent stack (so as to minimise routs).

I still feel in control of the main dynamics at the moment, from email chat, a lot of his attacks are a combination of trying to recover morale and for tactical reasons. Whether he decides he really wants to determine the overall flow of the battle I’m not so sure. I suspect that last turn was the first time with decent attack CVs and I think it showed with forcing 1 Shock back from the Oka (ie he attacked over the river). We both seem to be living on the margins with lots of 2-1s, but I think that fatigue is starting to play a role on my side.

In truth, come Feb I was planning to go back over to a strategic defence, my instinct is if I made any gains, they’d only create the sort of salient that will be a death trap come the clear weather.

Here’s a list of all my infantry and cavalry divisions with more than 4 wins. I think I’ll certainly get some Gds Cavalry Corps, but I suspect that Gds Inf will be thin on the ground, especially as a few with a decent win rate have also had quite a beating.





quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Looking very good. 6M+ points to 7.5M when the mud clears, and that should do it.

Q: Are you getting any positive contribution from the Tank Brigades? I use very few in action, but you seem to be doing fine. The real test will be if your vehicle pool can cover needs in late 1942.


BTW, it will be very expensive to shift Tank Corps from the Shock Armies to Tank Armies if you follow through with that idea. I suggest you do a trial run in a '42 scenario sand box game to see what I mean for yourself.


That’s my hope, if I can get up to 7m+ and a positive flow on armaments (I don’t have many more shell formations to come back), then I think I can absorb whatever he manages in 1942, even if it is a bit grim. For a German player, even if you know you still have the qualitative edge, this must be disheartening to see the Red Army grow pretty much unhindered from December – May.

Most of my main armies have 2-3 tank brigades and I seem to be doing well with reserve reactions. I don’t any will reach Gds status, and I have a load in the rear just building forts. Don’t see any sense having to pay APs to pull them out of an army to form up into corps.

I was a bit unclear about what I’m doing with the reserves. The 2 Shock armies are going to be basically infantry, but I’ve raised a fresh combined arms army and I’ll load that with cavalry and tank corps. This seems to get some tank corps into operation quicker than waiting for tank armies to appear but most corps will not be allocated until those armies exist.

I’ve found this works reasonably well in terms of staggering the conversion of brigades to tank corps, but having something for counterattacking in case of good weather in May.


Overall, this feeds into a discussion of whether or not the game is balanced. Its pretty clear that a very competent Soviet player can get into a winning position by this stage, with the Axis looking for narrow opportunities. But I feel (hope) this particular game is at a decent balance. We both seem worried about where we are, me that my main counterattack seems to be over, SigUp that he has expended too much in stopping me.

The mild winter really improves the feel of the game, and I think out balance factors are sort of working – though I think I’d offer to cut the Soviet logistic value in a future PBEM rather than morale as such, as I’m slowly realising that has a secondary effect (and yep, I know we were warned) of cutting down my CVs, which I think is one reason why I’m finding it hard to keep up the pressure. But on balance, it does restrain my ability to counterattack, so it may work out pretty well.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 5/22/2014 9:41:58 PM >


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RE: T29 (1 - 6 January) - 5/23/2014 6:02:17 AM   
morvael


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Interesting, in the AI vs AI games of Moscow scenario that I did to test the new rules, January and February were even worse for the Germans than December. At that point they were really bleed dry by the weather damage and reduced resupply and reinforcement rates and increased CV really didn't help them a lot. Of course the AI wasn't properly using city and fort shelters.

I have also put some of my tank (14 out of 26) and cav corps (all 20) in regular armies, wherever the fighting was hardest in 1942 (that means from Tula south with 1 exception). This worked well on defense (it's good to have a strong mobile unit to beef that weakest hex or recapture important hex), but on the attack I would now like to have more specialized armies and it's very hard (AP cost) to do so, so I barely managed to transform one Shock army to an all-cavalry force and the tank corps are still where they started. Brigades are good for reserve activations due to +1 initiative bonus they have, but late in the war there is not enough medium tanks to keep extra brigades (or battalions). Instead a lot of light SU brigades can be built.

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Post #: 158
RE: T29 (1 - 6 January) - 6/1/2014 3:53:26 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Interesting, in the AI vs AI games of Moscow scenario that I did to test the new rules, January and February were even worse for the Germans than December. At that point they were really bleed dry by the weather damage and reduced resupply and reinforcement rates and increased CV really didn't help them a lot. Of course the AI wasn't properly using city and fort shelters.

I have also put some of my tank (14 out of 26) and cav corps (all 20) in regular armies, wherever the fighting was hardest in 1942 (that means from Tula south with 1 exception). This worked well on defense (it's good to have a strong mobile unit to beef that weakest hex or recapture important hex), but on the attack I would now like to have more specialized armies and it's very hard (AP cost) to do so, so I barely managed to transform one Shock army to an all-cavalry force and the tank corps are still where they started. Brigades are good for reserve activations due to +1 initiative bonus they have, but late in the war there is not enough medium tanks to keep extra brigades (or battalions). Instead a lot of light SU brigades can be built.


thats good to hear, where I can attack (ie where my best infantry and cavalry are), I'm handing out a lot of damage, but I'm struggling to attack around Moscow and I can't (and don't really want to) keep up with a steady retreat in the northern Ukraine.

I do find that you are constantly balancing building formations to reflect current needs with what are the desired allocations into the longer term. Hopefully I can avoid needing my tank corps till July apart from a few that I allocate to normal combined arms armies.

Certainly post-43 a tank army built around 3 corps (whether all tank or with a mech corps) and those SU brigades is pretty effective as you have a very high chance of obtaining reserve activations


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T30 (8-15 January) - 6/1/2014 3:59:49 PM   
loki100


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8-15 January 1942 "It has no Future"

The second week of January saw all the fighting concentrated either around Orel or in the Rostov sector. North of Kaluga, both sides remained on the defensive as Stavka made preparations for a new offensive once key formations had disengaged and had chance to recover their losses.

However, the Kursk-Orel-Tula sector saw continued combat. The Germans again hit at Soviet spearheads in order to free trapped units and then fell back.



However, around Belev, Leningrad Front committed both Shock Armies in echelon. 2nd Shock drove 13 Pzr Division from the town and secured a bridgehead over the Oka.



1st Shock then moved past the burning houses, wrecked vehicles and corpse strewn roads to drive back 10 and 16 Motorised Divisions.


(Knocked out Stug IIIs near Belev)

At the same time, Stavka ordered a paratroop drop in an attempt to cut off the German retreat routes. Unfortunately, being dropped in a blizzard meant that the paras were too disrupted to hold their ground, even if it did add to the chaos behind the German lines.

To the south of Orel, Bryansk Front continued to probe for weak spots, hitting the German 4th Mountain Division again near the small town of Zmievka.





From Kursk to Voroshilovgrad, the Germans fell back and in most sectors SW and S Front were content to move up more defensible lines. In a few sectors, Soviet cavalry were able to catch the retreating Germans inflicting heavy losses.

However, the Rostov sector saw more combat. 9 and 18 Armies failed to clear a German strongpoint at Lisichansk but 61 Army was able to exploit a gap in the German front around Sverdlosk. To the south, 67 Army made some gains just north of Rostov even as 40 Army deployed as a reserve, using formations released from the Caucasus.




(T-34s exploiting gap in the German lines north of Sverdlosk)

In the Crimea, Stavka tried to relieve the siege of Sevastopol by capturing Armyansk and cutting their main rail line.



Losses for both sides reflected the more limited nature of the actual fighting. The Axis forces lost 60,000 men, 60 tanks and 25 aircraft for Soviet losses of 26,000 men, 125 tanks and 150 aircraft.

Overall, the Red Army grew by 100,000 men, 2,000 guns and 50 tanks.
The three reserve military districts had almost 750,000 men as fresh formations were being organised in the rear. The Moscow sector (NW, Reserve, Western and Moscow) grew from 1.7 million to 1,8 million men. Bryansk and Leningrad Fronts remained the same with just under 950,000 men and the four Ukrainian Fronts (SW, S, Cauc, Trans-Cauc) had around 1.5 million men.



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RE: T30 (8-15 January) - 6/1/2014 4:06:57 PM   
Oshawott

 

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quote:

In the Crimea, Stavka tried to relieve the siege of Sevastopol by capturing Armyansk and cutting their main rail line.


Nice use of your amphibious capabilities. It happens quite often that Axis players don't cover the land bridges to the Crimea. I am paranoid and always cover all land bridges with Romanian divisions/cavalry.

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Post #: 161
RE: T30 (8-15 January) - 6/9/2014 9:55:12 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

quote:

In the Crimea, Stavka tried to relieve the siege of Sevastopol by capturing Armyansk and cutting their main rail line.


Nice use of your amphibious capabilities. It happens quite often that Axis players don't cover the land bridges to the Crimea. I am paranoid and always cover all land bridges with Romanian divisions/cavalry.


I fear that any disruption was only temporary, just I am desparate to do something to try and shake up his defense lines

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T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/9/2014 9:59:54 PM   
loki100


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(T31) 15 – 21 January 1942: 'When Time is Over'

Mid January brought even more bad news for Stavka. The Germans had effectively blunted the remaining Soviet offensive around Orel, not just driving back isolated spearheads but, in a series of attacks, halting the entire offensive [1].



Facing a net loss of 5,000 trucks a week, and no longer able to make any progress, Stavka agreed to rest the formations that had been in action since early December. The result was only a handful of attacks were made to keep the Germans off balance at Kaluga where formations of Western Front disrupted the German lines. This operation was prepared by a series of VVS raids first on the Luftwaffe airbases in the sector and then on the identified German reserves around Kaluga.



North of Orel where 1 Shock again crossed the Oka, south of Orel where the cavalry of 34 and 50 Armies hit exposed German units before pulling back..




Elements of 1 Shock in action on the Oka.

In addition, both sides launched limited attacks around Rostov seeking to secure, or expand, bridgeheads over the Don for future operations.



In terms of losses, a combination of the wider German counterattack and the localised Soviet attacks saw heavy tank losses for both sides. 120 Axis and 152 Soviet AFVs were reported to have been destroyed.


T-34s in a prepared ambush east of Orel

Overall losses were 48,000 Axis and 36,000 Soviet.

OOB

Overall Soviet manpower by the usual 100,000 men, 2,000 guns and 100 tanks. Again most of this growth was in the reserve formations with only a limited flow of replacements reaching the combat fronts. However, Stavka was slowly reorganising the front lines and pulling armies back to refit and redeploy as it continued to seek weaknesses in the German lines.



The VVS started to pull a number of battered squadrons back into reserve to rest and train with new aircraft [2]. In addition, around Moscow in particular, an increase in German air activity was reported and overall 35 Axis and 180 Soviet planes were lost.


[1] This is actually pretty depressing.

I need to find some way to keep up some pressure or the Axis will be able to launch multiple offensives in 1942 and I'll be overwhelmed. But there is no point moving up, winning about half my attacks and then being driven back all along the front. This doesn't help with trying to build up a core of Gds formations and is starting to cost me heavily in terms of trucks.

Some of the problem is from the 95NM setting. On the attack the +1 rule is a compensation but on the defense they are very fragile. The result is I am making no real progress at gaining morale from wins, so most units vary between 1-2 CV (depends on fatigue) and its my handful of 50+morale units that I can get to 3-4 (again depending on fatigue).

Even though I feel time is running out, I've deliberately let the bulk of my better units rest this turn, in the hope I can make some pressure in February.

The other problem is that in the Rzhev pocket I lost about 12 divisions and they were all pretty decent. Most had 3-4 wins from earlier defensive fighting. The loss of those, and the resulting loss of Kalinin et al, has really hampered my operations to the north of Moscow.

As things stand at the moment, I can't see how I can survive the Summer of 1942.

[2] I've put most of the SB2 and SU2 squadrons into reserve as I have a lot of Pe-2 and Il-2 now available.

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Post #: 163
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/9/2014 10:20:30 PM   
jwolf

 

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Wow! That was a very impressive set of counterattacks by SigUp in the center. It's not hard to see how that deflates your hopes in that area, and maybe more broadly. It looks as though the Germans can fight through the winter much, much more effectively under the mild blizzard setting; it's making a huge difference.

On the other hand, the tanks losses are working in your favor; the slight odds in favor of the Germans are more than offset (I assume so) by your production.

As always, your vintage photos add a really cool "human touch" to the fighting.

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Post #: 164
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/10/2014 8:39:41 PM   
STEF78


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
The other problem is that in the Rzhev pocket I lost about 12 divisions and they were all pretty decent. Most had 3-4 wins from earlier defensive fighting. The loss of those, and the resulting loss of Kalinin et al, has really hampered my operations to the north of Moscow.


That's the key for a quiet blizzard => destroy a max of soviet units in 1941.

If you fail, you face a winter the way I did

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Post #: 165
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/11/2014 9:08:34 PM   
Gabriel B.

 

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Truck losses of 5000 per week are normal during blizard .

1000 due to unit movement + 4000 during resupply operations I suppose ?


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Post #: 166
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/12/2014 6:59:35 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Wow! That was a very impressive set of counterattacks by SigUp in the center. It's not hard to see how that deflates your hopes in that area, and maybe more broadly. It looks as though the Germans can fight through the winter much, much more effectively under the mild blizzard setting; it's making a huge difference.

On the other hand, the tanks losses are working in your favor; the slight odds in favor of the Germans are more than offset (I assume so) by your production.

As always, your vintage photos add a really cool "human touch" to the fighting.


My only real hope now is I have cost him enough manpower, armaments and tanks that he has only one real chance in 1942. If he is strong enough to sustain multiple attacks I'm pretty doomed.

All in all, I much prefer the mild blizzard, it does seem to generate much closer and more realistic, tussles, with less need for the Germans to run away. My problem is he has weak units south of Kursk but there is no point marching my infantry over the snow (picking up fatigue) only to be driven back by a counterattack or left looking at empty ground.

I really like that T-34 picture, seems that hiding in barns was quite a common tactic (though I'd imagine pretty risky)

quote:

ORIGINAL: STEF78


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
The other problem is that in the Rzhev pocket I lost about 12 divisions and they were all pretty decent. Most had 3-4 wins from earlier defensive fighting. The loss of those, and the resulting loss of Kalinin et al, has really hampered my operations to the north of Moscow.


That's the key for a quiet blizzard => destroy a max of soviet units in 1941.

If you fail, you face a winter the way I did



We started the winter offensive pretty equal in terms of numbers, so in that sense I was always vulnerable to being faced with an organised defense on the few sectors where I could concentrate.

Its just this feels like the other end of the extreme to your experience, I really don't want to be doing little between mid-Jan and late May but prepare for the Axis summer offensive.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Truck losses of 5000 per week are normal during blizard .

1000 due to unit movement + 4000 during resupply operations I suppose ?





Aye that sounds right, its not the level of losses that worries me, its the value I am getting for those losses. I'm winning say 60-70% of my attacks, but only really able to make localised ones, and losing 100%, for about a net loss of 6-8 battles a turn.

On that basis, apart from trying to achieve some attrition, I'm just chucking trucks and armaments away.

There are two problems at play here. One is we started December pretty equal in numbers (which is fairly historical), so I've never been able to do much more than gain local advantages.

Second is the impact of the 95% morale. So far this has been masked. In the bulk of 1941 it was clear I couldn't make the number of counterattacks often reported, so in that sense the 95% and the +1 rule combined to give some sort of balance. Equally I was often either defending where nothing would have helped (1 cv rifle divisions in the Ukraine) or in relatively well prepared positions and striking back at fatigued German units.

At the moment on the attack the +1 is still masking the underlying problem, but if I am then counterattacked, its all too easy for the Germans, with fatigue, even my few decent units just fall apart.

I know that those more experienced warned us of the implications, so this is really a case of coming to understand the logic of that advice. What is happening is as a result I can't really build morale by wins, nor can I get more wins than losses for particular units (so no Gds). In combination that is trapping my rifle divisions in the 41-44 morale range (ie I can only get them to 2cv if they are well rested and with a high TOE).

The pity is that 95% and +1 gave a better summer/autumn 1941 than 100% and +1 does, but now its leading to a distinct loss of Soviet (player) morale.

When +1 becomes optional, I'd never use it. You don't need it to make a number of counterattacks. I'd still look at lowering logistics (for both), certainly at lowering fort value (for both) and as a trade off take out a chunk of Soviet transport value so you get less factories out, or see more pockets trying to screen key cities (added to reducing fortification rate) in 1941. This should have some longer turn hits for the Red Army and also reduce the capacity to rail around masses of units come 1943.

< Message edited by loki100 -- 6/12/2014 8:15:36 AM >


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Post #: 167
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/12/2014 1:46:24 PM   
jwolf

 

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Loki, what about 100% morale setting but eliminate the +1 rule for CV odds?  Would that give you the magic balance of everything?  Maybe with lowered logistics/transport too?

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Post #: 168
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/12/2014 9:57:44 PM   
gingerbread


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Well, you do have quantity that you must employ to compensate for the lack in quality.

Really interesting game, at the same time that you seem to be realizing the effect of the 95 setting, so am I and I'm beginning to like it. Mind you, I do think the Barbarossa time period would be a bit different with an Axis player that has experience against a 95 Soviet, so it's probably a one time affair this, at least with the current manpower multipliers.

I'm looking forward to read about your thoughts, plans and their implementation for '42 and onwards. Glad you liked the refill concept.

Oh, do prepare defensive lines along the Terek, just in case. Yes, that far back...

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Post #: 169
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/14/2014 4:42:32 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Loki, what about 100% morale setting but eliminate the +1 rule for CV odds? Would that give you the magic balance of everything? Maybe with lowered logistics/transport too?


I think so. Now that mass is properly rewarded, the Soviets have an intrinsic benefit in combat in any case.

One bit I wasn't understanding was the impact of logistics. My units are picking up fatigue and in my desparation to make some in roads I was pushing them too hard. The next update shows the gains from letting a sector rest.

In effect this stop/start aspect was something we wanted to achieve with the lowered logistics.

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Well, you do have quantity that you must employ to compensate for the lack in quality.

Really interesting game, at the same time that you seem to be realizing the effect of the 95 setting, so am I and I'm beginning to like it. Mind you, I do think the Barbarossa time period would be a bit different with an Axis player that has experience against a 95 Soviet, so it's probably a one time affair this, at least with the current manpower multipliers.

I'm looking forward to read about your thoughts, plans and their implementation for '42 and onwards. Glad you liked the refill concept.

Oh, do prepare defensive lines along the Terek, just in case. Yes, that far back...


I have some very deep defense lines. I'm not sure what counts for the VP260 rule but I'm assuming that if I lose most of the Volga cities I am going to lose the game?

I agree its interesting (if a bit frustrating), this feels right in that I can do some serious damage but not really manage anything decisive.

I don't think I'd play around with the morale settings again, but would certainly drop the +1 rule when that option is available. The other thing we are seeing here is the impact of lowering the logistics value and that is also contributing to a stop-go feel to any offensive.


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Post #: 170
T32 (22 - 28 January 1942) - 6/14/2014 4:48:24 PM   
loki100


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T32 22 January – 28 January 1942: "was like a Maelstorm"

With the offensive south of Moscow stalled, Stavka shifted attention back to the Klin-Povlovo sector. If Moscow was to be the main target of the Germans in 1942, this sector represented their main chance of encircling the city from the north.



Having spent 2 weeks recovering both Kalinin and North Western Fronts were relatively fresh. Equally partisan reports and air reconnaisance indicated that the Germans had weakened their defenses with the bulk of the Panzer and Motorised divisions no longer in reserve along the Larna.

NW Front took advantage of the German redeployment into hedgehogs as opposed to holding a continuous front by infiltrating elements of 52 Army to the south of Klin. In the meantime, the elite Siberian formations of 55 Army hastily deployed into the Konakovo sector and took the German V Infantry Corps by surprise. Heavily bombed by the VVS and left without any aircover, they fell back in some panic, allowing NW Front to encircle Klin to the north as well.



Kalinin Front followed up these successes. First the German airbases in the sector were heavily bombed and then paratroops cut the German communications leading back to Rzhev.


(Soviet paratroops)

Around Istra [1], the Kalinin Front was able to take advantage of gaps in the German front and outflank 8 Infantry corps. The same mixture of massed VVS attacks (with no luftwaffe response) and the bulk of 21 and 23 Armies hitting their positions, forced another German withdrawal.


(T-34s in action around Istra)

To the south of Mozhaisk, 20 Army, hit elements of 48 Infantry Corps. This time the Luftwaffe intervened but Soviet fighters managed to protect the bombers and again the German line cracked open.



At this stage, the German decision to defend strongpoints, rather than a continuous front, opened the possibility to threaten Kaluga from the north. Western Front's 13 Army launched a less well prepared attack and was hit by a speedy response from 15 Motorised. The result was a bloody failure, with Soviet dead piled up in front of the undamaged German defensive lines.



To exploit these victories, 4 Shock Army and Kalinin Front's 33 Army were moved out of reserve and deployed to take advantage of the chaos that NW and Kalinin Front had inflicted on the German lines in the Kalinin-Kaluga sector.



Overall losses reflected the limited range of fighting but the return to active operations on what had appeared to be a quiet front cost the Germans heavily. Axis losses were 56,000 men, 45 tanks and 33 aircraft. Soviet losses were 18,000 men and 21 tanks. The VVS paid a heavy price for providing the Soviet offensive with continuous support and lost 168 planes.

[1] SigUp has started leaving gaps in his front. Up to now, I've been cautious about poking my units in, but combined with successful attacks, it suddenly starts to open up potential for further gains.


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RE: T32 (22 - 28 January 1942) - 6/14/2014 6:32:41 PM   
jwolf

 

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I'll be interested to read SigUp's reaction to this. The fighting is relentless and brutal. When your attacks succeed, your losses are OK, but when you lose they are dreadful. Good luck with the rest of the winter offensive.

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Post #: 172
RE: T32 (22 - 28 January 1942) - 6/14/2014 8:17:05 PM   
morvael


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I love the maps and the photos. I wish I had time to make something like this for my AAR... Mine looks like war diary of an accountant :)

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Post #: 173
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/15/2014 10:11:12 AM   
timmyab

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
I have some very deep defense lines. I'm not sure what counts for the VP260 rule but I'm assuming that if I lose most of the Volga cities I am going to lose the game?

Assuming Moscow is Axis controlled he'll almost certainly need at least one and possibly two of the light urban Volga cities. Technically he could achieve 260 without even one of them, but it's highly unlikely.

< Message edited by timmyab -- 6/15/2014 11:14:04 AM >

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Post #: 174
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/15/2014 11:56:15 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I'll be interested to read SigUp's reaction to this. The fighting is relentless and brutal. When your attacks succeed, your losses are OK, but when you lose they are dreadful. Good luck with the rest of the winter offensive.


I doubt he'll be happy to be honest.

The +1 rule is a nonsense, here the effects are partially mitigated by other settings (logistics and morale).

In one attack I started at 149-290 (as I said to him in an email this was a fishing expedition not a planned offensive). Now I did everything right, pre-attack bombing, 1000+ artillery units in action, numerical odds of 4-1. Also that sector is well led, I think that Malinovski as the army commander, Koniev is the front commander and the big Z lurks in the Kremlin (actually he is well to the rear of Moscow).

So I think, doing everything I could to improve my chances got me from 1-2 to 1-1, his command clearly had a series of brainfarts looking at the modifications, but in combination I shifted 3 well dug in infantry divisions.

My actual order of attacks was the opposite to how I wrote it up. Since I'd had some success around Kaluga last turn I started with 13A. Was on the verge of giving up with spoiling attacks but noticed that my 50+ morale units in 55A were up to 4 CV and 16 MP. So decided to attack up there.

Then saw the chance to maybe unhinge his Klin position by using that impassable lake around Volokotamsk.

But the one that went wrong, went very wrong, I didn't even damage his fort levels of all that slaughter.

If I am right, that I just need to rest units to mitigate the worst consequences, then I think I can carry on landing blows for the next 4-6 turns. I'm not going to gain much ground, but I am now simply trying to cause losses and maybe get a few units into the higher morale and/or Gds status.

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

I love the maps and the photos. I wish I had time to make something like this for my AAR... Mine looks like war diary of an accountant :)


I like finding the images, that one of Soviet paras in the snow was too good to miss.

Doing the maps that way helps to clarify things, especially when the fighting is over such a limited area. Equally it means I'm happy to post as the turns are done. It gives little away that a study of the combat reports won't reveal.

quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
I have some very deep defense lines. I'm not sure what counts for the VP260 rule but I'm assuming that if I lose most of the Volga cities I am going to lose the game?

Assuming Moscow is Axis controlled he'll almost certainly need at least one and possibly two of the light urban Volga cities. Technically he could achieve 260 without even one of them, but it's highly unlikely.


thanks for that, my assumption is he is going for Moscow, although his response to last turn may be instructive. If so, I assume it will fall, but I want it to absorb him for most of the summer season.

So that does that mean he needs Yaroslavl, Ivanovo and Gorky or also the towns on the central Volga like Kazan and Ulyanoysk?

The axis currently have 225 VPs (with Rostov and Leningrad).


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RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/15/2014 1:11:48 PM   
timmyab

 

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He'll almost certainly need Moscow plus at least one of the Volga cities. Yaroslavl, Gorky, Sarotov or Stalingrad. I think Moscow is 15 points so a 260 win is inconceivable without it unless the Soviet Union collapses. I actually think that Yaroslavl is the most tempting target because you'll almost certainly take Ivanovo at the same time for 6 points. Gorky is a nightmare to take and Sarotov and Stalingrad aren't much easier. Also none of these three cities are likely to be enough on their own. The Axis player is likely to need two of them or possibly one plus somewhere like Krasnodar or Ivanovo.

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Post #: 176
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/15/2014 2:23:28 PM   
STEF78


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Did you stop the offensive in the other parts of the front?

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Post #: 177
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/15/2014 10:16:16 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

He'll almost certainly need Moscow plus at least one of the Volga cities. Yaroslavl, Gorky, Sarotov or Stalingrad. I think Moscow is 15 points so a 260 win is inconceivable without it unless the Soviet Union collapses. I actually think that Yaroslavl is the most tempting target because you'll almost certainly take Ivanovo at the same time for 6 points. Gorky is a nightmare to take and Sarotov and Stalingrad aren't much easier. Also none of these three cities are likely to be enough on their own. The Axis player is likely to need two of them or possibly one plus somewhere like Krasnodar or Ivanovo.


thats useful thanks, supports my view that above all I need a defense in depth around and behind Moscow

quote:

ORIGINAL: STEF78

Did you stop the offensive in the other parts of the front?


for the moment yes, I'm hoping a couple of turns of rest will get the stacks built around 1 and 2 Shock back up to 9-10 CV. I'm no longer expecting to capture much ground (and in truth I don't think I'd hold it for long come good weather), so my goal now is to hand out some damage and try to build Gds/morale if I can.

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Post #: 178
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/16/2014 10:18:59 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

He'll almost certainly need Moscow plus at least one of the Volga cities. Yaroslavl, Gorky, Sarotov or Stalingrad. I think Moscow is 15 points so a 260 win is inconceivable without it unless the Soviet Union collapses. I actually think that Yaroslavl is the most tempting target because you'll almost certainly take Ivanovo at the same time for 6 points. Gorky is a nightmare to take and Sarotov and Stalingrad aren't much easier. Also none of these three cities are likely to be enough on their own. The Axis player is likely to need two of them or possibly one plus somewhere like Krasnodar or Ivanovo.


Sig up needs them all,

it is basicly the entire western bank of the Volga + some cities in the Caucasus (krasnodar- novorosik )
with the 280 you need to secure the eastern bank as well pluss capture Grozni .

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Post #: 179
RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/16/2014 12:55:58 PM   
timmyab

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Sig up needs them all,

Not so. See Tarhunus v timmyab.
You might be neglecting to add the bonus for controlling the Soviet capital?

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