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RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942)

 
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RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/17/2014 11:18:29 AM   
Gabriel B.

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Sig up needs them all,

Not so. See Tarhunus v timmyab.
You might be neglecting to add the bonus for controlling the Soviet capital?


yes, my mistake .

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RE: T31 (15 - 21 Jan 1942) - 6/19/2014 10:21:50 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.


quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Sig up needs them all,

Not so. See Tarhunus v timmyab.
You might be neglecting to add the bonus for controlling the Soviet capital?


yes, my mistake .


thanks to both of you - incredibly useful for sorting out ideas of the most likely threat in 1942. My suspicion is that SigUp is going to try to destroy enough of the Red Army that taking the VPs is incidental, but I think I'll only really when I start to see his deployment around Moscow in the spring - if the bulk of the Pzrs are in the south then he is probably not going to prioritise Moscow

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T33 (29 Jan - 5 Feb 1942) - 6/19/2014 10:27:24 PM   
loki100


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T32 29 January – 5 February 1942: "Can you lift the hasps of steel?"

The end of January brought the inevitable German counterattacks on the Soviet spearheads, but this time Stavka had reserves and fresh formations to hand. North of Moscow, the offensive was widened in an attempt to dislodge the German forces holding the Klin-Povarovo line.



The sector held north of Torzhok, held by the Volkhov Front had lain quiet since the October battles. Taking advantage of lax German reconnaisance, Stavka had released 4 Shock and 33 Armies from reserve and allocated them to this sector.

Partisans hit the rail lines in the Valdai sector, briefly isolated the axis forces and the full weight of 4 SA struck towards Bologoe. The police formation, clearly not expected the ferocity of a full Soviet offensive, broke and ran.


(4 SA moving up to its attack positions)

Around Kalinin, 22 Army also went back on the offensive on a previously quiet sector. The German 6 ID was caught by surprise and fell back, giving the Red Army a valuable bridgehead over the Tveritsa and allowing them to push to the outskirts of Turginovo [1]



To the south, NW Front rested the bulk of 52 and 55 Armies but took advantage of the German decision to form strong points and infiltrate tank and ski units into the gap trying to cut their supply lines. For the first time, Stavka authorised the reserve formations of the Moscow District to go over to the offensive. Fresh units of 29 and 30 Armies took advantage of the earlier gains at Istra and.drove back the German 23 Infantry Corps. However, an attempt by 29 Army to exploit this victory was held in a desparate rearguard action by the Germans trapped against the reservoir and with the entire sector in danger of being encircled.



Reserve Front mostly went over to the defensive, content to re-organise and recover from its victories of the previous week. However, Western and Leningrad Fronts renewed their offensives north and south of Kaluga.



13 Army, supported by elements of 3 and 20 Armies struck to the north of Medyn. In the air, the VVS reported significant Luftwaffe interdicton, but was still able to provide support to the attack. Backed by almost 2,000 guns, in ferociously brutal fighting, the German 38 Infantry Corps was forced back. Even a counter-attack by 20 Panzer was not enough to hold off almost 140,000 Soviet riflemen. Instead, running into sustained Soviet resistance, the Panzer attack was driven back, leaving 23 tanks burning in the snow.


(fighting near Medyn)

At the same time as the Medyn battle was raging, the bulk of 3 Army struck towards Kaluga. Again the VVS reported fierce air battles, but Soviet bombers added to the damage done by 700 guns. Here, the rest of 38 Infantry Corps was driven back, again with heavy losses on both sides.

[2]



In the meantime, Leningrad Front attacked again around Belev. 2 Shock and 24 Army drove towards Bolkhov and opened up a gap between the German defenses at Orel and those on the Kozelsk-Peremyshl line. 1 Shock, moved into the gap and supported by over 100 tanks (mostly T-60s) tried to eliminate the German toehold over the Zhizdra at Koselsk. However, here the German commanders had anticipated the blow and Tolbukhin's elite units took heavy losses as they failed to breach the hasty German defenses [3].

Even so, Leningrad Front was able to exploit the victories at Bolkhov and commit armoured formations deep into the German rear.



Most of the rest of the front remained quiet. Elements of Bryansk Front probed the German defenses at Kursk. Around Rostov, the Germans established another small bridgehead on the south bank of the frozen Don. Taking advantage of the commitment of their reserves, 37 Army strcuk south of Sverdlovsk and routed a Rumanian division, disrupting the defenses of the German 34 Infantry Corps at the same time.



Losses matched the intensity of the combat. The axis forces lost 19,000 men, 66 tanks and 34 planes. Soviet losses were 27,000 men, 76 tanks (60 of which were T-60s) and 193 planes. Losses were not confined to front line troops, Maks Reiter and Sergei Denisov were killed. Despite his failure at Koselsk, Tolbukhin was promoted to General-Leytenant.



Overall, the Red Army grew by nearly 100,000 men, 2,000 guns and 150 tanks.



For all the intensity of the fighting, the front lines had scarcely shifted in January. For this stalemate, the Axis forces had taken 265,000 losses, 500 tanks and nearly 200 aircraft. Soviet losses were 150,000 men, 480 tanks and 900 aircraft.



(overview of the front and key production data for the end of Jan 1942)


[1] I know the combat system can be random, but this was actually almost embarrassing. This attack was to cause losses and increase the pressure on this sector – I never expected it to succeed.
[2] SigUp has moved from defending on a solid line to leaving gaps and making stacks. I think this is a risk as it means I can often attack from 3 sides and if I win, its starting to open up inviting gaps to slip a tank brigade into.
[3] Given the issue with the earlier attack, I fear this was karma. Pity, it would have given me a 3 hex wide breakthrough and with fresh tank brigades to exploit it.


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< Message edited by loki100 -- 6/19/2014 11:30:58 PM >


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RE: T33 (29 Jan - 5 Feb 1942) - 6/20/2014 2:06:51 PM   
Oshawott

 

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These numbers are very interesting. However, I am very suspicious about them. Could you please post the overall losses for Axis and Soviets?

Your supply stores are extremely low. Are you playing with .15 and do you see any drastic supply shortages in the northern armies?

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RE: T33 (29 Jan - 5 Feb 1942) - 6/20/2014 3:16:49 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

These numbers are very interesting. However, I am very suspicious about them. Could you please post the overall losses for Axis and Soviets?

Your supply stores are extremely low. Are you playing with .15 and do you see any drastic supply shortages in the northern armies?


Attached is the losses ground and air, plus destroyed:




As to supply, my northern front is in a bit of a mess but then I put it on a very low TOE to channel replacements to other sectors.

I may have over-used the Il-4s in an attempt to maximise the partisan war, which I guess would have been burning off supply. I'm now scaling that back just to a few VVS bases in a narrow sector and have sent most of the Il-4s to reserve. I'll seriously reduce the commitment of the Pe-2s at the end of Feb but at the moment am doing well out of maximising the VVS' contribution.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 6/20/2014 4:17:09 PM >


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T34 (7 Feb - 13 Feb 1942) - 7/7/2014 8:30:00 PM   
loki100


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T34 – Set orderly, for burial (5 – 12 February 1942)

The period 7-8 February seemed to bring nothing but reports of defeat at the nightly Stavka conferences. From Kalinin to Rostov, the Germans unleashed their Panzer reserves on the various Soviet breakthroughs in the previous week. Each Soviet offensive was systematically halted and then thrown back in heavy fighting.


(ouch)


(Soviet PoWs near Rostov)

Following these setbacks, Stavka issued new orders to the combat fronts. On the lower Don, the Caucasus and Trans-Caucasus Fronts broke contact, falling back to more easily defended positions [1]. In the Ukraine, South Western and South Fronts had their original attack orders cancelled and were ordered to dig in along their current front line.

Bryansk and Leningrad Fronts pulled back their main offensive units to rest and recover. Around Moscow, West and Kalinin Fronts held their current positions. In these sectors, Stavka still had not abandoned plans for further operations.

In the north, the Soviet offensive was renewed. A massive partisan attack cut the German rail lines between Pskov and Leningrad. On the front lines, 4 Shock continued to probe the German lines around Bologoe, this time their 10 Infantry Corps bore the brunt of the Soviet attack.



At the same time 3 Shock completed its reorganisation and was released from Stavka reserve even as 33 Army moved into its assault positions.


(33A moving into position)

Finally, after 3 months of sustained fighting 52 and 55 Armies captured Klin.

The opening attack by 52 Army was beaten off with heavy Soviet losses but revealed weaknesses in the German defensive lines. Waves of Soviet bombers then hit both the German front line units and suspected reserve formations.

Finally, 95,000 men, representing some of the best units in the Red Army, and backed by a third wave of VVS airstrikes, took the small town. The Germans lost heavily as they hastily had to pull back to avoid encirclement.




(Elements of 55 Army enter Klin)



Overall losses matched the intensity of the fighting. Both sides lost around 36,000 men, but the Germans paid a heavy price in tanks, losing 122 to only 36 Soviet vehicles lost. In the air, the position was reversed as the VVS paid for its support for Red Army operations, especially in the fighting around Klin. 44 Axis planes were reported as destroyed but the Soviets lost 255.

Overall, the Soviet forces slowly increased, especially as the various reserve formations took on fresh manpower and started to build up their stock of heavy weapons. The Red Army grew by 100,000 men, 250 tanks and 2,000 artillery.



Comments and Notes

Finally I managed my very first Gds unit, unfortunately it won't appear on the map. Malinovski and Tolbukhin are now eligible for Front commands. This also shows most of the infantry and cavalry formations that I hope to manage to convert to Guards before the winter fighting is over.





[1] – I may regret this, as its pretty early in the year to give up space but I lack the manpower and armament points to properly fill out these formations so they remain very weak (mostly 1 CV). My logic is this is one sector where even in Feb, and definitely in March, I could easily lose the equivalent of an army in a small pocket.

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RE: T34 (7 Feb - 13 Feb 1942) - 7/7/2014 10:30:47 PM   
jwolf

 

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Can you print a copy of the OOB page? I'm curious about SigUp's numbers and just what amount of force he has at the moment. I saw that his counterattacks cost you more men, but he lost more tanks.

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RE: T34 (7 Feb - 13 Feb 1942) - 7/8/2014 3:01:38 AM   
Oshawott

 

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His tank losses are insignificant. With every attack he gains back morale. Also, looking at the earlier OOB numbers I fear that SigUp did not put any of his troops on refit. He will probably do this at the end of February and his numbers will increase dramatically come March. I would watch out for a nasty March offensive.

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RE: T34 (7 Feb - 13 Feb 1942) - 7/8/2014 7:08:24 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Can you print a copy of the OOB page? I'm curious about SigUp's numbers and just what amount of force he has at the moment. I saw that his counterattacks cost you more men, but he lost more tanks.


Shown below for T32 (ie end Jan and current turn), plus some idea of how its varied over the Winter, the figures are all for the end of the Soviet turn (ie just before I ran the end turn routine). I suspect he's still suffering for winter attrition (hence the overall relatively even manpower loss) but of course a lot of his losses will return. As you can see, his German manpower has gone up over the last couple of turns.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

His tank losses are insignificant. With every attack he gains back morale. Also, looking at the earlier OOB numbers I fear that SigUp did not put any of his troops on refit. He will probably do this at the end of February and his numbers will increase dramatically come March. I would watch out for a nasty March offensive.


That is very much my suspicion, its one reason why I am tucking my more effective units back into local or strategic reserves and trying to work out where to set up my front lines. Around Moscow I don't have much choice, but to the south, I don't want to hand over too many easy pockets. Ideally I'm looking for a front line that will take some breaking and a formation in the rear of each sector that will give me a good chance to hit any Panzer encirclement hard.

This is the logic to pulling out the Don bend, neither of the fronts on that sector really have the type of forces capable of much of a counterstroke.




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T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/19/2014 5:23:41 PM   
loki100


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12-18 February 1942: "Impossible to feign"

By mid-February the bulk of the long front from Kaluga to Rostov was quiet. From Kaluga to Kharkov, the various Soviet formations re-organised to consolidate their gains and to build up local and operational reserves. To the rear, Stavka was collecting fresh rifle divisions and armoured formations with a view to creating a strategic reserve. East of Rostov, Trans-Caucasus Front dug in on the line of the Don with reserves stretching back to Stalingrad. To the south, Caucasus Front, having lost control of the south bank of the Don, fell back to guard key cities and protect the main passes across the Caucasus.

However, north of Moscow, Kalinin, Moscow and North-Western Fronts continued their operations designed to drive the Germans back behind the Larna and to relieve the immediate threat to Moscow.




North of Vyshny Volochek, 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to make limited gains as they tried to recapture the rail junctions of Kaboa and Bologoe [1].



However, it was around Pologoe and Kalinin that the main Soviet offensive was launched. Kalinin was encircled as 33 Army forced the Tveritsa river and elements of 22 Army managed to cut their line of retreat.



To the south, 52 and 55 Armies hit elements of 40 Panzer and 42 Infantry Corps and broke through to reach the Larna. Taking advantage of the chaos of the German retreat, Soviet armour cut deep into their rear, disrupting their communications and supply networks.




(Hasty German retreat over the Larna)

At the same time, Kalinin Front's 21 Army, supported by elements of 29 Army struck deep into the breach opened around Istra. Elements of 56 Panzer and 23 Infantry Corps were driven out of their hastily constructed positions guarding the last main road to the German forces at Pologoe.




(T-34s supporting 21 Army)

Again, Soviet armour was able to exploit the gaps torn in the German front and the powerful German force at Pologoe was cut off.

Determined to take advantage, Stavka ordered 30, 48 and elements of 29 Army to try to capture the town. Preceeded by multiple air-raids, the Soviet attack was badly co-ordinated. Despite having encircled the town, and with more than 100,000 men committed, the inexperienced units drawn from the Moscow reserve failed, suffering over 4,000 losses [2].



OOB

Although the fighting was restricted to a narrow sector of the front, both sides suffered heavy losses. The Germans suffered badly having been forced back on a number of critical sectors losing 27,000 men and over 100 tanks. Soviet losses were 15,000 men and 32 tanks.



[1] – essentially to gain victories and inflict losses, no real expectation of making significant gains
[2] – never likely to have succeeded but worth a try as it would have given me my main objectives on this sector.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 7/19/2014 6:45:30 PM >


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RE: T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/21/2014 7:54:20 PM   
jwolf

 

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Loki, regarding the encirclements at Kalinin and Povarovo, did you actually move unit forward to make a pocket?  And if so, do you expect it to hold?  But this looks like a win for you either way.  If he stays in those cities you will (probably?) trap some divisions and destroy them; if he pulls back you recover Kalinin and Povarovo which are your main objectives in that area.

You still have two more turns in February; it will be interesting to see what you can make of them.

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RE: T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/21/2014 9:14:36 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Loki, regarding the encirclements at Kalinin and Povarovo, did you actually move unit forward to make a pocket?  And if so, do you expect it to hold?  But this looks like a win for you either way.  If he stays in those cities you will (probably?) trap some divisions and destroy them; if he pulls back you recover Kalinin and Povarovo which are your main objectives in that area.

You still have two more turns in February; it will be interesting to see what you can make of them.



Yes, they are in pockets, but each in one hex is only held by a single tank brigade so he'll open them up. From recon, I don't think there is much of a reserve on that sector and I've dumped a load of problems on him (which is probably my gain for all this constant pressure, even my defeats cost the Germans in this period). 5 divisions are in pockets (which he can open), there are 3 hexes where even with no forts I have defensive CVS of 15-20, so he'll struggle to regain his original line and I've lobbed several tank brigades actually behind his remaining defense line.

So all sortable, but each bit of firefighting will cost him MPs. My guess is he can clamp down on my incursion around Kalinin but may have to abandon Povalovo, as he is risking another encirclement and having some key divisions routed (which was the point of my final gamble attack, if that had paid off, they would have routed) - I don't think I can build the sort of encirclement that would get me actual surrenders.

I think I now have a chance to gain my original objective of the Larna by the end of the month. I may lose some space in March (depends where or if he attacks) but it all helps shore up Moscow for the summer. To get back to where he was at the start of December (ie the MV Canal) he'll need to clear four defensive belts and I can pull the better armies of NW Front out of the line as a local reserve, as I've taken about 8 hexes off the overall front line on this sector.

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RE: T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/21/2014 9:34:09 PM   
morvael


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It's lovely how much important is every hex up to 5 hexes from Moscow. One can write an entire post about battles that rage to take or retake a single one of them. On the other hand tens (hundreds?) of hexes in other areas are not worth sparing even one sentence when they change hands.

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RE: T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/22/2014 6:54:55 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

It's lovely how much important is every hex up to 5 hexes from Moscow. One can write an entire post about battles that rage to take or retake a single one of them. On the other hand tens (hundreds?) of hexes in other areas are not worth sparing even one sentence when they change hands.


agree, this phase has been very claustrophobic in that the rest of the map scarcely matters but I fear I can see the pattern of hexes between the Moskva-Volga Canal and the Larna in my sleep given the repeated nature of these battles.

What is also frustrating is that I lost all that sector in one week after my mistake at Rzhev, so its taken me 3 months to (maybe) regain what was taken without any significant defense in the first place.

Also everywhere else along the front I don't especially care where the first defense line is. I've tried to anchor it on rivers and the major ones are now very well defended, but if SigUp attacks in force then my front line will be overrun and I'll fall back. If I can, I really need to hold Moscow (for the VPs as much as anything else), if I can't then I need to bog him down for the entire Summer-Autumn in taking it.

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RE: T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/22/2014 9:29:12 PM   
STEF78


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
What is also frustrating is that I lost all that sector in one week after my mistake at Rzhev, so its taken me 3 months to (maybe) regain what was taken without any significant defense in the first place.

Small errors, big conséquences....

Spring will be very interesting!

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RE: T35 (12 Feb - 18 Feb 1942) - 7/27/2014 2:26:53 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: STEF78


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
What is also frustrating is that I lost all that sector in one week after my mistake at Rzhev, so its taken me 3 months to (maybe) regain what was taken without any significant defense in the first place.

Small errors, big conséquences....

Spring will be very interesting!



aye, its interesting to see how the results of a clear mistake can escalate - I even knew the turn before where it would have been obvious for the attack to fall but I was too keen on my level 3 forts around Rzhev to do the sensible thing.

As to spring, I can only hope I've done enough damage, first to make SigUp cautious about what he does in March and then limit him to a single major offensive in the summer. I can cope (I hope) around Moscow by sheer volume of formations, multiple lines of entrenchments and enough strong units to hit back hard. In the south, if he goes there, by essentially trading off space for time, hoping he outruns his logistics or starts to expose the axis-allied units for me to hit (& train up the Tank Corps).

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T36 (19 - 26 Feb 1942) - 7/27/2014 2:44:28 PM   
loki100


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T36: 19 February – 26 February 1942: 'It was dark - before'

The German response to the Soviet gains around Kalinin – Povarovo was a predictable series of counterattacks as they shifted their mobile reserves to try and contain the Soviet breakthroughs. Communications to both sets of encircled units were restored, but both positions were still threatened by substantial Soviet forces.



Determined to secure Moscow's northern flank, Stavka ordered a renewal of the offensive.

Malinovski's 33 Army again broke the German lines linking Kalinin and Torzhok as elements of 22 Army again cut across the German communication lines.

To the south, 55 Army, supported by elements of 52 Army restored its positions on the Larna, inflicting heavy losses on 40 Panzer Corp's 2nd Panzer Division. However, the main blow fell on Povarovo itself. This time there was no repeat of the ill-prepared attack from the previous week. Led by North Western Front's elite 52 Army and supported by 3 armies from the Moscow Reserve and Kalinin Front's 31 Army, over 160,000 men and 2,200 guns attacked the encircled Germans.



This time, their nerve failed, and after 2 days of vicious fighting, the Germans opted to try and fight their way out of the Soviet trap.


(Soviet units celebrate retaking Povarovo)

With Soviet armour and ski units across their retreat path, and pressed closely by the main attacking formations, the German breakout came close to being a rout, their situation worsened by the VVS' complete mastery of the skies.


(Soviet ambush across the German line of retreat from Povarovo)

In the end the Germans lost, or destroyed 100 guns and 12 of their Stug IIIs. In addtion they lost over 6,000 men. Soviet losses were heavy, and all the armies involved were forced to refit and recover rather than persue the broken enemy.

At the same time, to the north of Vorozny Volochek, 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to carve open a larger gap in the German defenses, almost reaching the outskirts of Kabozha.




Soviet intelligence reports indicated that the bulk of the German Panzer reserves around Moscow had been sent to contain the Soviet offensive on the Larna. As a result, both Kalinin and Western Fronts started to shift from the defensive posture they had recently adopted to take advantage and renew the wider offensive to the west of Moscow.

Despite the restricted nature of the fighting, both sides took heavy losses as the sequence of attack and counterattack escalated. Both sides lost around 25,000 men and the Germans lost 50 tanks. However, the Soviet tactic of overextending their tank brigades to disrupt the German lines meant they lost 115.

Stavka rewarded Govorov for taking Povarovo and 34 Army's 1st Cavalry Corps was given Guards status in recognition of its earlier victories around Orel.



OOB



Overall, the Red Army only grew by 70,000 men, but finally there were indications that Soviet industry was recovering from the losses and chaos of 1941. For the first time, since September 1941, Stavka received reports that a small surplus of armaments had been built up.



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< Message edited by loki100 -- 7/27/2014 3:44:53 PM >


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T37 (26 Feb - 4 March) - 8/3/2014 9:13:05 PM   
loki100


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T37: 26 February – 4 March 1942: How Have I Peace

By the end of February, it was clear that the Axis forces had held Soviet winter offensive. The fighting became fragmented as both sides sought minor advantages. To the north of Vyshny Volochek, 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to make gains. In the Ukraine, SW Front launched a series of localised attacks between Kursk and Orel, primarily to gather reconnaisance on the deployment of the German mobile reserves.



North of Moscow, the final battles of the Povarovo offensive occured. The main action saw Kalinin Front's 21 Army make gains to the east of Istra, mainly to give elements of the Moscow Military District time to dig in around Povarovo. Near Kalinin, 33 Army again made inroads but this time the Soviets were unable to cut the German communications.



In the air, the deployment of the bulk of the lend-lease P-40s to the Moscow sector paid off as the German attempts to gather information on Soviet redeployments led to heavy losses among their recon planes.


[1]

The map of the front lines, from the Arctic to the lower Don showed painfully little movement for the combined losses of 180,000 killed and 1.3 million disabled on both sides. In addition, 2,200 tanks had been reported destroyed.




This gives an overview of progress in the Winter Offensive and key changes to OOB (both sides), losses and the relative recovery of my industrial base. I can only lose 34 more VP so I don't have much room to fall back – hence the heavy concentration of both front line and reserve formations around Moscow.

The following tables show the losses in a bit more detail and may help place things in context.




I'm not too sure how to interpret either of those data sets. German armoured losses are mostly various Pzr III (not surprising as it should be the backbone of their tank force at this stage). I've seen Stef78 argue that losses of 1941 don't matter for 1942, if so I doubt I have seriously dented the German armoured forces. The loss, in total, of over 5,000 infantry style squads I think will hurt more and may mean the German infantry are less able to conduct an attritional battle for Moscow.

For the Soviet losses, its pretty clear the bulk of my tank losses were either in obsolete models or the light tanks. Losses of the medium tanks I will need for 1942 and the KV1s are minimal. This fits more general observation as its in terms of light tanks that my tank brigades and cavalry corps are short.

The loss of so many cavalry squads hurts in terms of replacing them (they cost a lot in armaments), but then they have been my only semi mobile asset all winter.




Again, not too sure how to interpret that. The bulk of my air losses are in series that are obsolete, or will be quite soon into 1942. Although I've lost a lot of Yaks/P-40s, its something I can easily absorb as with the losses of Il-2s and Pe-2s.

I've pushed the VVS hard to support my attacks, so overall the losses reflect my reliance on it.

For the Germans, its clear the Ju-87s have hidden in Germany for the winter. I'm not sure what is easy to replace but I seem to have done some steady damage to both the level bombers and the transport aircraft.

The final table shows all the lost units. For my side, its a bit misleading as it conflates disbands with destroyed but its pretty grim. All I've managed to destroy is 2 FZ and 1 SP gun battery.



Looking Forward

Main issue now is what SigUp will do in March. He can attack, but I think (from my probing attacks in the Ukraine) that the bulk of his armoured reserves are now north of Moscow. I think his infantry needs a break so taking on the multiple belts of 16-28 defensive CV stacks that ring Moscow will cost him a lot of tanks.

If he hits at SW Front, southwards, my lines are more vulnerable.

As to the main defensive phase of 1942, I have, basically 4 different defensive models.

In the far north, if he attacks, he can have what he wants.
At Moscow, the main defense is the depth of forts and the existence of 3 reserve armies. I can't stop him, at least not at first, but its going to be a slow grind to and beyond Moscow. I have the makings of about 4 Gds Rifle Corps, and these can be thrown into the Moscow battles if I need to.
From Kaluga-Voronezh, I have a less impressive first line, but behind this are 5 armies with a lot of combat power (2 shock and 3 made up essentially of cavalry corps. This means I can lash back at any exposed attackers.
South, I'm weak, have some depth on the direct road to Stalingrad and have covered the key cities in the Caucasus. Here I'll be relying on logistics as much as combat power.

My weakness is the lack of Gds. With some conversion of paratroop brigades, I can generate 4 Gds rifle corps. These can either help in a defensive battle for Moscow or give me a decent amount of combat power somewhere. I do have a lot of units that are on the verge of converting and hope that in a defensive/counterattack battle I can do a better job at managing this than when on the offensive.

From my experience in this phase of the war, the lower logistical values are working pretty much as we originally hoped.

I have the makings of a 4 Tank Armies and a combined arms army based around Tank and Cavalry Corps. That will help with hitting exposed spots, especially if SigUp goes for Stalingrad et al.


[1] – I'm not sure why, but I do seem to have shot down a lot of these.



Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 8/3/2014 10:15:44 PM >


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RE: T37 (26 Feb - 4 March) - 8/3/2014 9:38:57 PM   
jwolf

 

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Very interesting summary of the winter operations, thanks very much. Were you just not able to hit many Hungarian or Rumanian units? Did SigUp manage to shield those from you somehow? From other AARs I've read it seems that the Axis allies are a popular winter target for the Red Army.

Big question is if the brutal winter fighting was enough to give you the breathing space you need around Moscow. I don't think he can advance too far toward Moscow during the snow turns of March, and the spring mud season lasts a long time -- hopefully, long enough for you to have really good forts in and near Moscow in all directions.

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RE: T37 (26 Feb - 4 March) - 8/4/2014 7:44:46 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Very interesting summary of the winter operations, thanks very much. Were you just not able to hit many Hungarian or Rumanian units? Did SigUp manage to shield those from you somehow? From other AARs I've read it seems that the Axis allies are a popular winter target for the Red Army.


I think he made a conscious decision not to trust them on their own after dark. Right at the start I hit his Rumanians around Rostov and inflicted very heavy losses but also lost one crucial battle. After that I tended not to find them on their own but always stacked with German units. I also hit some Hungarian units in my attacks around Kursk.

The real problem was my decision to concentrate heavily on the Kalinin-Orel sector. Once I'd done this, I really lacked the strength in the South to do much. I tried to put in a sustained effort with SW Front but all that happened was they got exhausted moving across the snow covered Steppe and badly handled by a counterattack. I think, given other constraints, I made the right choice to then just sit back and do some spoiling attacks.

Since we started more or less even, I felt I had one big choice. I could, as I did, operate the cavalry heavy Bryansk Front with Leningrad Front. The advantage to this was to relieve the pressure on Tula and that the German 4 Army on that sector had already been hit quite hard in my November counterattacks.

I'm actually hoping they will become more visible in 1942. In part to date, its suited me to keep the front as short as possible, I now have enough units to allow it to become longer (ie if he makes an incursion not abandon the flanks immediately), if I'm lucky that will start to put the Hungarians et al at risk, especially as by May 42 I'll have the beginnings of a mobile army. Feasting on hapless allied units seems a good way to build morale and experience for the nascent Tank Corps.

The alternative would have been to operate Bryansk with SW Front. This would have put more pressure in the Kursk-Kharkov sector, where there were definitely Hungarians. I think I would have got more wins (=Gds/morale) and taken more ground (= a bit of so what) had I done this.

But that leads to your second question ...

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Big question is if the brutal winter fighting was enough to give you the breathing space you need around Moscow. I don't think he can advance too far toward Moscow during the snow turns of March, and the spring mud season lasts a long time -- hopefully, long enough for you to have really good forts in and near Moscow in all directions.


I think so. North of Moscow I have taken 3 hexes from my start line on the M-V canal. Sounds pathetic but I think it means it will take two major German offensives just to breach the M-V and that relieves some of my fears of Moscow being encircled. To the South of Moscow, again I've only taken 2-3 hexes but its a better front line. Obviously that is still good tank country, so my suspicion is if SigUP goes for Moscow he'll have to put his main weight there. But I've got the space now to set up as a 1942 version of Kursk. Again, I have no doubt he can push me back to the Oka and Ryazan over 2-3 operations but it will be intense fighting.

On the direct road west, all I've done is to destroy his old front line. But that means if he moves into contact his units are very vulnerable to counterattacks. I only have 3 hexes of depth, but I can contest each defensive line over multiple turns.

What I am relying on is the random weather giving a lot of mud well into June around Moscow (which I've seen quite often vs the AI), by that stage I'll have a smattering of rifle corps, so can either build small bastions or have the means to deliver some bruising counterattacks.

So, I'm not confident. I think if he really wants Moscow he can take it. But I think I've achieved my core goal of ensuring that it would be his major project for the Summer-Autumn of 1942 and that I have a good chance to hold onto Ivanovo-Vladimir. At best I can make him concentrate so much, that I can start minor offensives of my own on the northern and southern flanks.

As to March, I'm in two minds. I could do with a break, to let some units recover and carry on getting things set up for summer. But if he does attack, it could grind his infantry down more, he'll be moving in snow (so fatigue) and it might hurt him more in the longer term than making some initial inroads into my defensive positions. Also at the moment, he's pretty free to put his Panzers anywhere for the Spring/Summer. If he grinds out a salient, in turn he starts to lock his units in.


< Message edited by loki100 -- 8/4/2014 8:51:29 AM >


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RE: T37 (26 Feb - 4 March) - 8/4/2014 7:59:40 AM   
STEF78


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The germans are in good shape with strong territorial gains.

You will have an heavy task!

As german player I would attack in the South. The goal is the destruction of the red army and it's the best place to achieve it.

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RE: T37 (26 Feb - 4 March) - 8/4/2014 8:34:40 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: STEF78

The germans are in good shape with strong territorial gains.

You will have an heavy task!

As german player I would attack in the South. The goal is the destruction of the red army and it's the best place to achieve it.


I tend to agree with you, I think SigUp is in a good position as I scarcely took back anything of value in the winter offensive.

I'm very grateful though to you and Frogmarc for the warning about the ability of a German player to just chop the Red Army up in the South to the point where it subsequently collapses. If I have a plan, it seriously involves not getting anywhere too near sharp knives or the chopping board

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T38 (5 - 11 March) - 8/10/2014 7:56:56 PM   
loki100


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T38 5 – 11 March 1942 "That dismal cry rose slowly"

The start of March saw the Germans launch an offensive that broke into the outer forts guarding Sevastopol, led by their 1 and 20 Infantry Corps.

More seriously, the Orel-Kursk sector saw a major offensive that struck the junction between Bryansk and SW Fronts. Briefly SW Front's 5 Army was threatened by encirclement but was able to pull back in good order to prepared positions on the Olym.



The offensive was led by 2 Panzer armies consisting of 5 separate Panzer Corps (24 and 47 on the southern axis, 3, 14 and 46 to the north) and supported by elements of 6 infantry corps (12, 13, 35 to the south, 17, 18, 40 to the north).

Of more interest than the renewal of the German offensive was the intelligence provided as to the deployment of the German armoured forces. Continued low level fighting around Moscow identified another Panzer Army and Soviet overflights.spotted what appeared to be a large build up in the Kharkov sector.

For the moment, Stavka was content to fall back rather than risk encirclement. Prepared positions along the Olyn, Sosna and Mecha rivers provided security and the mobile units of both SW and Bryansk Fronts moved up to prevent any deeper incursions.

Equally, now the Germans had moved out into the open, they fell prey to the powerful VVS forces on this sector. Numerous sorties were flown both in support of the defensive operation and to strike at the German advanced guards.[1]


(Soviet bombers in action south of Orel)

For most of the front, Stavka kept to a defensive stance. However, a German attempt to retake Klin was overwhelmed by 55 and 52 Armies. To the north of Vishny Volochek, 3 Shock kept up its offensive even as 4 Shock was pulled back into Stavka reserve.



OOB

For both sides, there was little significant changes to their overall numbers. Both the Germans and the Soviets added more artillery (2,000 for the Soviets, 200 for the Germans) and the Red Army commenced re-organising on the 1942a rifle division.



[1] - very noticeable increase in both the proportion of aircraft that actually make an attack and the losses inflicted.

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T39: 12 – 18 March 1942 - 8/15/2014 6:52:59 AM   
loki100


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T39: 12 – 18 March 1942: 'Too sullied for Hell'

By mid-March, for the first time since October 1941, Stavka's focus was on the emerging crisis in the Ukraine. The front north of Tula lay quiet apart from a localised failed attack by the Kalinin Front. 3 and 4 Shock armies were pulled back from their Valdai offensive as Stavka sought to create a defense in depth south of Moscow.

In the Crimea, the German 1 and 20 Infantry Corps eliminated all the outer forts at Sevastopol.



According to intercepted messages [1], both had spent the winter enjoying the ease of Berlin while their colleagues in 9, 4 and 2 Armies had borne the brunt of the Soviet offensive [2]. However, the outer defenses held long enough for Stavka to rush fresh divisions from the Caucasus in order to improve the defense of the city itself [3].



The other major crisis was the fast developing Voronezh-Yelets offensive. Now into its second week, the northern prong gained 30 miles on the north side of the Sosna while supporting infantry tried to secure the flanks. In the south, gains were more limited as SW Front's resistance solidified but the Germans pushed 20 miles closer to Voronezh reaching the outskirts of Khokol and outflanking the Olym defenses.



(hasty Soviet positions near Khozkol)

To add to Stavka's unease, intensive air and partisan recconnaisance revealed that the build up detected at Kharkov was most likely a defensive belt prepared by the Germans over the winter. While it was clear that at least one Panzer Army was still deployed west of Moscow, it was equally clear that another Panzer Army had effectively disappeared. Whether this was in the rear recovering from the winter battles or preparing to support the German offensive was not clear.

Stavka's response was threefold.

First a major partisan assault on the rail lines supply the German offensive was ordered.


(partisan operation near Orel)

Second, a limited attack by 34 Army was ordered on the infantry on the flanks of the German armoured spearheads. South of Ismailkovo, the Germans were driven back. In the meantime, supported by SW Front's 26 Army, the rear of the southern German pincer was attacked and the rail junction at Marmyzhi was recaptured.



Finally, in order to disrupt the German build up, South Front and elements of the Transcaucus Front went over to the offensive for the first time since January. A series of attacks drove in exposed German infantry divisions.



In order to block any move north towards Tula, 2nd Shock was released from reserve and took up positions around Efremov, while the bulk of the mobile reserve of Bryansk and SW Fronts were held back to check any German attempt at converting their two spearheads into a single pocket.

In addition to the ground operations both sides committed substantial portions of their airforce to the battle. The VVS caught an unescorted attempt to resupply the German offensive, inflicting heavy losses on the Ju-52s. Overall 52 German and 245 Soviet aircraft were lost in the sustained air combat as Stavka moved some of its best fighter squadrons from Moscow to support the Il-2s and Pe-2s that constantly intervened in the ground fighting.


(Yak-1 refueling near Voronezh)


[1] ie an email discussion between us
[2] a major theme in Soviet propaganda leaflets circulated to the tired and exhausted German troops at Moscow.
[3] In part, I'm very impressed at the planning that has gone into this attack. To keep 6 elite infantry divisions out of the way all winter takes a lot of determination. On the other hand, this is also my own fault. I hadn't really realised how few replacements were reaching the formations in the Crimea so hadn't been rotating them in and out. In consequence I'd badly weakened my defenses. Hopefully 3 fresh divisions in a level 5 fort have some chance of holding out.

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RE: T39: 12 – 18 March 1942 - 8/15/2014 3:41:33 PM   
jwolf

 

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Heh, I like your "intercepted message" from the email.

I would guess that wherever the Panzers are now, they can be in far different places after the spring mud.  That is, the offensive operations you're seeing near Voronezh may or may not correspond with large scale German plans for the summer.

Finally, the thought of attacking 3 fresh divisions in a level 5 fort that cannot be cut from supply is ... not encouraging.  It's hard to see how that attack could succeed.  I wonder how that compares with actual Soviet strength facing Manstein during May and June of 1942.

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RE: T39: 12 – 18 March 1942 - 8/15/2014 3:57:31 PM   
Oshawott

 

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So far this reminds me very much of the historical German 42 offensive. First clearing the Crimea and driving towards Voronezh. Does he still hold Rostov? He is definitely ahead of schedule. I think this going to be a very interesting and balanced 42 campaign.

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RE: T39: 12 – 18 March 1942 - 8/15/2014 5:12:11 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Heh, I like your "intercepted message" from the email.

I would guess that wherever the Panzers are now, they can be in far different places after the spring mud.  That is, the offensive operations you're seeing near Voronezh may or may not correspond with large scale German plans for the summer.

Finally, the thought of attacking 3 fresh divisions in a level 5 fort that cannot be cut from supply is ... not encouraging.  It's hard to see how that attack could succeed.  I wonder how that compares with actual Soviet strength facing Manstein during May and June of 1942.



at the moment he has a lot of choice over 1942, I suspect he'll take Stef78s view and hit the south and try to badly weaken my army so either he wins in 42 or badly limits my scope for recovery in 43. The key at the moment is his inf divs are mostly around 8-9 cv and even the Pzrs are not much better - I can't hit his spearheads at Voronezh simply because they are double/treble stacked, if they were spread out then my cavalry corps could do some serious damage. I think this is why he is being cautious at converting an offensive that is driving me back to trying for a pocket.

But that means at Moscow where my defensive stacks are 15-20, he's going to really have to concentrate to make inroads.

Of course, come June (or the good weather turns in May), this will be different, not least he'll have more MPs.

At Sevastopol, I've just managed to get a defensive cv of 66 and his two attacking stacks seem to have 55-60. But he'll have numbers (say 66,000 - 30,000) and artillery on his side (I've extracted the HQ). I guess he'll also reduce the fort, even with failed attacks.




So its going to come down to luck. I think he'll have one shot before the April mud, and then 4 in May. If I can hang it to convert to corps then 2 corps plus a HQ will keep Sevastopol for me.

Apart from the VP, I don't really care. But he needs it more than me. Come June, that will be a real thorn in his side and will need German units to screen, so for a low diversion of my forces, it will tie down quite a lot.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

So far this reminds me very much of the historical German 42 offensive. First clearing the Crimea and driving towards Voronezh. Does he still hold Rostov? He is definitely ahead of schedule. I think this going to be a very interesting and balanced 42 campaign.


I think it is balanced, in that from emails neither of us is exactly sure of our chances. My worry is he is a critical bit ahead of schedule, I think his Voronezh offensive will mean he jumps off for the Summer offensive already at the city, and he occupies not just Rostov but also the south bank of the lower Don.

So, at the least, that will help his logistics in the summer as he can build up his rails quite far east by the start of May.

On the other hand, I'll have an army of 7 million by the end of March, and enough formations in the rear to replace significant losses. Also even a few rifle corps in June give me either stopping power on a key sector or the ability to unlock a strong defensive line.

The weather gods could be quite important, we're on random weather so he'll have the advantage of being able to use clear turns in May and early June to make some gains, but most of the front is well into the 'north' sector, so it depends on just how much mud there is.


Attachment (1)

< Message edited by loki100 -- 8/15/2014 6:18:33 PM >


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T40 19 - 25 March 1942 - 8/18/2014 7:38:55 PM   
loki100


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T40: 19 – 25 March 1942: 'He threw a Menace at the Earth'

By mid march, around Moscow the weather changed dramatically as winter eased, and the frozen ground facilitated faster movement.



The result was a series of localised German attacks on the Tula-Kaluga sector. None threatened a major breakthrough but each made gains into the outer belt of the Soviet defences.

[1]



Keen to ensure no more ground was lost before the spring mud locked the front solid, Stavka released some reserves to strengthen the front and hopefully bring the German offensive to a halt.

More seriously, the improved conditions allowed the German Panzers to encircle the bulk of 26 Army dug in on the Olym.



[2]

Stavka initially ordered Masleninikov to commit the bulk of Bryansk Front's cavalry to break the encirclement. However, after limited reconaisance it became clear that the German concentration of armour was too strong and that any offensive would simply invite encirclement of the few mobile formations available to the Soviets.

With the bulk of the Soviet armour in the deep rear re-organising, and with the Spring thaw due in a few weeks, Stavka opted to preserve strength and pull back SW and S Fronts closer to the Don and place Bryansk Front on a defensive footing.



Despite this defensive stance in the centre, Soviet forces continued to probe at German deployments in the Don bend, driving in some exposed elements. In the north, 3 and 4 Shock Armies returned to the offensive. Catching 2 Infantry Corps off guard, Soviet forces split apart the Finnish units to the north from the German units to the south and made gains towards the rail junction at Podborovye.



Despite heavy losses in the last 2 weeks, slowly the Soviet army grew in size to over 7 million men, almost 80,000 guns, over 5,000 tanks and 5,000 aircraft deployed to the forward airfields.



Of the tanks, 2000 were light tanks (350 were obsolete T-26 and T-50s), 2000 medium tanks (80% T-34s, the balance Valentines and Matildas) and 1000 heavy tanks (almost all KV-1s apart from 1 brigade equipped with the few remaining KV-2s).



Losses for both sides in the last week were relatively heavy given the limited range of the fighting. The Red Army lost 33,000 men (many in the futile attempt of 26 Army to break out of encirclement) [3] compared to 13,000 Germans. However, the Germans lost 79 tanks in forcing the Olym while the Soviets only lost 18.

The air battles continued at high intensity. In the three weeks of the Voronezh offensive, the VVS lost 770 aircraft (mostly fighters) and the Germans 150. However, the VVS inflicted significant attrition on the German transports and level bombers. In addition, the German reconaisance effort was limited due to previous losses and the intensity of the VVS' commitment.


(Pe-2s and Yak-1s in action near Khozkol)

As the Soviet forces steadily increased in numbers, Stavka started to address the question of building up the quality of some formations.



Another regiment of Il-2s was promoted to Guards status in recognition of its contribution during the Voronezh battles as was 55 Army's 21 Rifle Division. Drawn from the Siberian reserve, and already experienced against the Japanese, it had been at the centre of all the vicious battles on the Klim-Povoravo sector. At the moment, it was probably the elite formation in the entire Red Army.

[4]

Equally, slowly, a number of armies were distinguishing themselves. The best commanders, and the bulk of the new artillery was allocated to to these formations rather than spread across the bulk of the Red Army.



[5]

[1] I think this answers the question as to where the missing Panzer Army is. It seems to be around Kaluga, this,plus the Voronezh offensive may indicate that Tula and the line of the Oka is the main target for the summer ... or may indicate that is simply where they are at the moment.

[2] The insert is from the end of my turn but it shows the relative strength of the encirclement. Now the good bit is that each stack has 3 units, mostly 2 Pzr and 1 Motorised and the average strength is around 6 cv (with the motorised formations around 4-5cv). In addition, the supporting infantry are mostly 3-5 cv but well stacked.

[3] I now take the view if I can't extract them, they may as well do some damage. In a series of fairly low odds attacks, I think I managed to knock out 7-10 German tanks, but since my units are doomed, I can only regard this as a minor gain.

[4] I'm really looking for chances to ease most of these units up to 8 victories. At that point, with luck on the random element, they will flip to Guards status. My problem is that at the moment 55 Army is holding my gains around Klim (till I can raise the forts to #2/3) but I'd like to pull it into reserve and let it attack a weak sector. With some care 5 or 6 of the divisions can be eased to Guards status by June.

[5] Ok none are going to reach the threshold of 75 victories soon but this starts to give me a framework to build the historic division of the Soviet forces into a small elite army and the bulk of the Red Army.

< Message edited by loki100 -- 8/18/2014 8:39:15 PM >


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RE: T40 19 - 25 March 1942 - 9/8/2014 9:27:41 PM   
M60A3TTS


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Any news on this one? I've enjoyed following it.

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RE: T40 19 - 25 March 1942 - 9/9/2014 7:14:28 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

Any news on this one? I've enjoyed following it.


its not dead, but SigUp has very variable working patterns, so there are huge gaps in turns.

Its a problem (& frustrating) as I keep on losing the plot as to what I was trying to do, especially with all my rear area units. If the game wasn't potentially well balanced for 1942 (I think he has a chance at a clean win), then I think it would end, but playing out that phase is too intriguing to easily give up on

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