SeaQueen
Posts: 1451
Joined: 4/14/2007 From: Washington D.C. Status: offline
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I don't like it. You get into all kinds of things when you're modeling accidents, which don't necessarily provide insight into the things driving decision makers in warfare. If the goal of the game is to provide some kind of insight into what kinds of decisions people are faced with in warfare, accidents probably isn't a great place to focus your effort. Yes, naval aviation is dangerous. It is certainly more dangerous than land based aviation. That being said, how dangerous is it actually? If it was so dangerous that accidents were frequent enough that they actually drove war planners to factor them into the casualty rates, then naval aviation wouldn't be an operational capability and would be some sort of highly experimental new technology. In short, it wouldn't be actually deployed because it'd be too unreliable. If I'm the commander of a CSG, or even a 2 DDG SAG, I assume that the pilots at my disposal are sufficiently skilled that devastating accidents aren't going to happen very often. This isn't to say they don't happen, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time worrying about them. If I was really concerned about lots of crippling accidents, I wouldn't deploy. You also get into questions such as, "What is the time frame of the scenario?" If each platform had some sort of "mean time between failure" rate then in any realistic case, would occur in only a very small number number of cases. This is partially due to the short duration and limited scope of most scenarios. Sure accidents occur, but what is their effect? Well... the typical effect is to take a platform out of the scenario. Then maybe you shouldn't play that platform. Put those aircraft in "maintenance." I do that all the time. I might put 12 helos on an LHD, but only play 8 for instance. The remaining ones are out of the game, for whatever reason. For sure, in the real world over the course of many days, different aircraft will pass into and out of operational capability for a wide range of reasons (accidents, mechanical failures, accidents due to mechanical failures, scheduled maintenance) but the net effect is that on average, it just takes a few aircraft out of the game.
< Message edited by SeaQueen -- 5/21/2015 8:40:25 PM >
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