Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Proudfoot

quote:

I do have to, as an aside, wonder how fun it is to be constantly saving and reloading results that you are not happy with. I basically never do this, in any game. There's no shame in lowering the difficulty. But that's a different philosophy, I guess.

I'm designing a scenario. Which requires playtesting. Which requires loading the same scenario over and over again..each time you find a big design flaw in the initial placement of the computer forces.

I read your entire post. And you are the expert. I am not. But I've loaded different designs on the the same scenario 5 times (sometimes saved under a different scenario name) . The initial initiative roll on turn 1 each of the five times is german 3 soviet 2. Now if the number list starts out at a different place the odds in rolling the same two six sided dies 5 times in a row...is 1/(36^5) or 1 to 60 million. And it could happen randomly. But it seems pretty slim.

This is about as detailed of a recorded empirical study of the dice rolls of this game I've done. I really don't have time to prove this one way or another ..so I'll take your word for it...that's its random...however...it really doesn't seem random.

Without rigid recording I've seen the same dice rolls come up again 3 times in a row. I fired on a leader and 3 squads one time and all three times their "defense" roll was a "6" and all four of them rolled "1"s on the damage check. This is the sequence (6,1,1,1,1) for times in a row. Or a probability of 1/(6^5^3) or about 1 to 2 trillion. I even threw in "extra" rolls before the attack, twice after I reloaded the save. This would suggest that the seeded number is not simply a list of one black die and one red die that is saved when you save the game and reloaded a few steps back when you reload the game. But that the saved die rolls are tied directly to units and action.

Finally, I was not saying the AI is consulting this number list, and making choices based on it.


< Message edited by jonj01 -- 3/11/2014 1:08:08 AM >

(in reply to Tom Proudfoot)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jonj01

....
Now if the number list starts out at a different place the odds in rolling the same two six sided dies 5 times in a row...is 1/(36^5) or 1 to 60 million.
....
This is the sequence (6,1,1,1,1) for times in a row. Or a probability of 1/(6^5^3) or about 1 to 2 trillion.
...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Barthheart

quote:

ORIGINAL: jonj01

....
Now if the number list starts out at a different place the odds in rolling the same two six sided dies 5 times in a row...is 1/(36^5) or 1 to 60 million.
....
This is the sequence (6,1,1,1,1) for times in a row. Or a probability of 1/(6^5^3) or about 1 to 2 trillion.
...

These are not quite true because the odds of a die coming up a certain number have no effect on the next number the die will be.

The odds of a normal 1d6 rolling a 1 is one in 6, the odds the next roll on the same die will be a 1 are 1 in 6 not 1/6^2.

Given a perfectly balanced die and it is thrown exactly the same way every time, the chance that each roll will be a 1 is 1 in 6, because one roll has no effect on the previous roll.