Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I suspect a move on NZ to cut off aid from the US to Aus.

quote:

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 4477 troops, 231 guns, 438 vehicles, Assault Value = 1131

Defending force 82674 troops, 495 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1328

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 490 Horrible adjusted AV!

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
808 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1177 casualties reported
Squads: 46 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 17 (7 destroyed, 10 disabled)

quote:

Brisbane expands airfield to size 7

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

17th of March -42
______________________________________________________________________________

Turns are just flying. 7th one today I think!

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SOPAC
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Got lucky and the KB turned around. Did he get a whiff of my CVs? No DL and nothing spotted that I can see...hmm. Some crucial information this turn.

quote:

Brisbane expands airfield to size 7

This tells me he intends to stay in OZ or he wouldn´t waste supply on expanding the AF. Its quite possible the "missing" 2 IDs have been diverted here. That would give him 4 IDs plus at least 1 tank RGT. Enough to stop my planned offensive but far from enough to threaten OZ proper.

AV at Sydney is up to 1600 and Melbourne 1100. Add to that the 6th OZ ID that hasn´t railed in yet...

The newly arrived AA units make a "small" dent in the Japanese bomber formations as 24 are shot down over Newcastle. Strategic losses just passed 3000...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Ever think of just hiding in the port with some of those ships?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

how do you do 7 turns in one day? Do you pay attention to the replay at all?

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Looks like you're solid in OZ. H may come, and if he does you'll get the nice benefit of the reinforcements, and I think you'll be okay. I bet he'll stay back, use that big air field and bomb away.

You're pretty good at defending big bases fro what i remember, so I think you'll figure this one out. Be patient and chip away. He'l maybe get some VPs but he's had to use a lot of resources to get there and will use a lot more if he wants to stay and bomb the industry.

At least at this pace I'll be able to get tips from your AAR about the endgame way before we get there!

quote:

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 47675 troops, 569 guns, 770 vehicles, Assault Value = 1436

Defending force 79221 troops, 464 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1126

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 1506

Allied adjusted defense: 321

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Sian !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1355 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 96 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Vehicles lost 43 (2 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Units pursuing 1

Allied ground losses:
24181 casualties reported
Squads: 775 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 925 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 216 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 119 (97 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Units retreated 21
Units destroyed 1

quote:

Ground combat at 81,39 (near Tienshui)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 5934 troops, 421 guns, 522 vehicles, Assault Value = 1045

Defending force 33949 troops, 261 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 774

Allied ground losses:
237 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
17th Division
110th Division
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Mountain Gun Regiment
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
75th Chinese Corps
68th Chinese Corps
82nd Chinese Corps
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
Jingcha War Area
41st AA Regiment

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
This will be the battle that decides the war.

quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest

need more intel before you can determine if he is just opportunistically hunting or something else. I think you know it is a dangerous time to engage KB if it is whole. IMHO, flood patrol planes to the region and get good naval intel, so you can determine if you can counterpulse with CV's or just surface ships.

At this point, he has to know that you know those CV's are there. Is it an empire trick or isn't it. That is the question.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
This will be the battle that decides the war.

I don't think that is correct.

You should be in relatively good shape to fight him there if you want to. I think that is an island too far given your ship strength still left to you.

Let him keep burning oil and fuel.

Double check your search.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Gilberts are nice to have -- they deny your 4e in the central pacific. Speaking of 4Es how is their training coming along? You have a window here before his better planes come along to make some hay with them I think.

The Aluetians are just horrible for Japan to fight over, imho.

Have you thought he is simply grabbing what victory points seem easy and will be settling in for a defensive war? In Greyjoy's game I think he established several festungs, but his rear area was weakly held.

Mr. Kane has really trashed your merchant fleet, but surprisingly few big ship losses. Combine that threat with pdu off, and he has to be worried a bit.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Nice results with the AAA there is OZ! Hopefully he's left the good pilots in them. Odd he came in so low. With the solid mistake free opening it's good to know he'll blunder once in a while, right?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I agree with Lowpe. I don't think the Samoas are as strategically important as you seem to be thinking. Yes, it would suck if he had them. However, him having them does several things for you, assuming you avoid 1/1/1943 AV ratio. Which you should be able to do - he would need Australia and India, IMO...you should do some base VPs math - put it in a spreadsheet, I did! In any case, here's why you shouldn't worry too much about it:

1) Extends his SLOC, especially applicable once you have 40% working torps in 1943 - or 44% regular effectiveness, almost an every other attack instead of one in every five.
1a) If he really wants to isolate Australia with this, he needs to take the Gilberts or you can just thrust straight through there and really cut off whatever of his is S of your line of advance.

2) Provides low hanging fruit for your first amphibious invasions in late 1942 or early-mid 1943, which is also about the time you're able to cut his SLOC...meaning anything he has defending it is easily destroyed in place. Which means more VPs back on your side.

3) Even if you need to do something in 1942 about VPs for the AV ratio, Allied ships (by and large) have the endurance to take long, long circuitous routes to their destinations.

4) His moves make more sense as a very quick advance to push you back as far as possible, giving him more time to shore up the "inner" empire. I'm thinking AV is his "nice to get it done, but probably won't happen" plan - he would need to be pushing harder and faster( and better and stronger) in China, not to mention possible VP grabs against Ceylon and Calcutta. If he can take all of these high Allied multiplier bases, like Noumea, and simply sit on them to prevent you from getting the VPs...and grab as many permanent VPs from LCUs/industry as he can. I think you've done a good job of avoiding shipping losses, which is always a great way to gain permanent VPs for either side.


It all adds up to a plan to make you play more cautiously in 1943, lest a naval debacle on your end tilt the VPs over the 4:1 ratio. Or 3:1 in 1944.

quote:

ORIGINAL: offenseman

I'd harass him at Tabituea as soon as possible. Maybe let him build the airbase a bit for you though. That could be a long term step toward controlling Christmas Island down the road. Lots of JFB like to do that. Even if that is not the case. Tabituea is a great island to have a Japan. It is good for area denial as it can be made large enough to use 4e bombers. He may invest heavily in keeping it as long as possible.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I think it's dangerous to assume a premature stop to the Japanese expansion. Many people around here have proven that the IJN can continue to support offensive operations well into 1942, even into the summer and fall. They may not be advancing everywhere anymore, but it can still be done. You're still in February? Don't get too gung-ho about counter-attacking just yet...

For all that I said earlier, I was mainly responding to the hypothetical of a Japanese victory in the Samoas. I think it is a reasonable place for you to fight him as you should have several mid-sized airfields in the area (Pago Pago, Suva, Savaii itself?) and it's about equidistant to Hawaii and Rabaul/Truk, right? I don't think I would risk tangling with a full KB until you have Hornet and are carrying extra VMF planes to supplement your CAP, plus LBA - all the usual, but...you know.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
But I´m starting to suspect you and Lowpe are right. He may be done with his expansion and settling in for a defensive war with counter attacks instead of overreaching and opening up for allied attacks along an extended LOC and too many positions to defend.

quote:

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 36297 troops, 643 guns, 696 vehicles, Assault Value = 1289

Defending force 57440 troops, 569 guns, 237 vehicles, Assault Value = 1487

Japanese adjusted assault: 457

Allied adjusted defense: 2587

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3403 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 87 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 63 disabled
Guns lost 11 (2 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 135 (23 destroyed, 112 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1335 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 84 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 37 (12 destroyed, 25 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (2 destroyed, 10 disabled)

quote:

Ground combat at Malaybalay (80,90)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12745 troops, 116 guns, 36 vehicles, Assault Value = 302

Defending force 10815 troops, 53 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 167

Japanese adjusted assault: 203

Allied adjusted defense: 175

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
55 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
46th Division
32nd Nav Gsn Unit

Defending units:
3rd PA Constabulary Regiment
103rd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Division
205th Base Sqdn
Del Monte AAF Base Force
101st PA Infantry Regiment
III Philippine Corps
505th Base Sqdn