IdahoNYer
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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Made it another month! This one ended strangely similarly to the last one - lost a convoy on a run to Noumea - at least the troops didn’t drown enroute this time! The Noumea raid highlights the precariousness of the situation - the IJN can still project overwhelming power where and when they need to. The Allies are still a few months away from being able to do that, but, we can project a locally effective force. Overall, like last month, no war changing disasters is the best news. Losing Derby and Wyndham - and the probability of Broome and possibly Darwin in the coming weeks - have hurt the cause, but they haven’t been easy walkovers for the enemy and we’re fighting rather than running. This month effectively ends the Jpn First Phase of operations with the ending of the Amphib bonus - and he’s largely accomplished all his objectives - although Western Java and Bataan still hold. But he’s suffered some serious losses that will have long term effect. Naval losses for the month were very much in the Allies favor - IJN reported losses for the month were 2CVL, 1CA, 4CL, 5DD and 2SS as compared to the Allies losing 1CL, 2DD and 2SS. Air losses were also in the Allies favor, but not as good as last month, 379 for Jpn to 299 Allied.
Screenshot shows Allied Forces disposition - Notes: 1)Ships are in service, not under refit or stood down. 2) a/c shown are combat available, not trainers or deployed on CVs. 3) CENPAC subs are those against IJN shipping, other Theater subs shown are “in close” for defense of that Theater. 4) En are Construction or Port Maint Bns, not BFs.
The question now is, “What is the Jpn next objective?” While he’s already working toward seizing NW Australia, what else? What are his capabilities? While he can project overwhelming power anywhere with the KB and other fleet units, the real issue is staying power - the KB is a raiding force. To seize well defended territory, he’ll need the Army. Lets take a look at his available Army divisions - this is a rough look, and of course L_S_T could have bought out restricted forces. So what is available for the Pacific/India theaters?? I come up with 12 Infantry Divisions (miss any?), and what they have been doing since the war’s start:
2nd: Mindanao, then?
4th: Moresby, then Java (confirmed)
5th: Singers, then Wyndham (confirmed)
16th: PI, Soerabaja, then moving to Derby (mid Mar)? (SIGINT)
18th: Singers, then ?
21st: PI, then Java (confirmed)
33rd: Singers, then ?
38th: Hong Kong, Singers, then Wyndham (confirmed)
48th: Bataan (confirmed)
55th: Burma? (estimated)
56th: Balikpapan, Palembang (mid Mar), part on Java (confirmed)
Im Gd: Singers, Palembang, then enroute to Wyndham (SIGINT)
From this list, at least three, and likely four, Divisions are actively involved in NW Australia (5th, 16th, 38th, Imp Gd). Two are still committed to Java (4th and 21st). One (48th) is laying siege to Bataan. I’m guessing -- that’s the best way to describe it - that one Div (55th) is in the Rangoon/Burma area. That leaves three Div (2nd, 18th, 33rd) whose locations are currently not known and therefore available. Unfortunately, this gives L_S_T the ability to take the most defended Allied locales - I do not have enough ground power to defeat a 3 division attack. However - and this is a big however - without the Amph bonus, he’ll be hard pressed to land 3 divisions at one time - AND - sustain that sized force. Still, this does mean that Noumea, Suva, and Pago are more vulnerable vs. other potential targets such as NE Australia or India/Ceylon due to the lack of multiple AFs for the defense of those island bases. In other words, he can mass more effectively that the Allies can in those areas. So, priority will be to strengthen SOPAC - which is already in the works - as well as maintain as much force (as supply allows) to hold Darwin. By Theater, here’s the overall situation.
West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Pilot training progresses well for all but US Army bomber pilots. Still very short bomber pilots, and am short airframes in any case for all Nationalities. Naval refit is the priority for warships, and we’ll start frontloading ships into yards immediately on the 1 Apr turn.
NOPAC. No enemy activity other than taking Attu, so we’ll land at Amchitka and continue to build up combat power. SIGINT still shows the 7th Div planning for Amchitka, but whether or not it’s been released yet is the issue. Will maintain some surface forces, including some BBs, as well as supporting ships, but will rely on land based air to provide cover. Will likely increase a/c from Hawaii after AFs build up at Adak and later Amchitka.
CENPAC. Other than grabbing the Ellice Islands, little enemy interest here in the central Pacific. CV Lexington is about to finish refit, and Yorktown just started. Will likely bring both carriers south in the coming weeks.
SOPAC. Goal is to get Noumea to fort level 4 first and foremost. It was at 3.97 when it got clobbered. It has enough engineers to get there. Once at level 4, priority will be to begin an AF at La Foe and begin to project airpower offensively. With enemy landings at Efate and Luganville, troops will land at Tanna (just south of Efate) and build up an airfield to bring Efate under fighter cover. A third Marine Regiment is at sea enroute to complete the 2nd Mar Div, and the 7th Marine Reg will embark shortly. Of course, this assumes the enemy isn’t going to land a major force on New Caledonia for a couple of weeks - once I get LaFoe AF operational, I think his window will have passed - we’ll be able to project offensive airpower to hold, and even think about retaking Efate and then Luganville. For now, we’re vulnerable….
SWPAC. Priority remains NW Australia - building up bases enroute to Darwin and see if we can hold it. 41st US Div is enroute, but the issue isn’t numbers of troops - its supplying those troops. Broome will likely fall, and cost a good Aus brigade, but holding that base for the past month has surely upset the Jpn timetable - and denied the best port/AF other than Darwin. Will attempt to hold Port Hedland and points west and south, but we’re limited to an airbridge to send in troops for the moment. Help is on the way in the form of the Royal Navy which will augment the Aus-US cruiser force currently operating out of Perth. How long the Royal Navy remains will depend on 1) where the KB is, and 2) Jpn intentions against India. While the fight for NW Australia is ongoing, the threat to NE Australia remains - ground defenses are still weak, but we can mass a significant amount of aircraft from multiple AFs.
DEI. Surprisingly, still holding western Java. Two IJA divisions are progressing west, but slowly - and an amphib on the SW coast was pretty well repulsed, then contained. Hopefully, one or more of those available IJA divisions will commit to take Java. In any case, will continue to maintain an air threat until Batavia falls.
Bataan. Well, Bataan still holds. That’s about all that can be said - its tying down a Division plus force - but supplies have run dry and its time is limited.
Burma/India. Central Burma with Rangoon has fallen, but the IJA advance toward Lashio and Shwebo hasn’t been very aggressive. Will continue to withdraw northwest. Surprisingly, no landings took place yet at Akyab or Cox Bazaar. They are still weakly held, but the RAF can contest landings here. Will see what the naval raid on Rangoon produces - both for effects and enemy response. The US 27th ID remains in Cape Town and can be released to India should the IJA/IJN make a move toward Calcutta or Ceylon. But he’ll need the KB for that kind of endeavor…
China. Fighting has stagnated as the IJA focuses on isolating Yenan. This apparently proved more challenging than anticipated, but was accomplished - Yenan will fall within a few weeks. This has however slowed the advance on Sian and points northwest. In the SE, Wenchow is still the focus, but it is also still holding. The AVG hasn’t been as successful as the IJA has effectively re-equipped its fighters with Oscars - and is using them aggressively. Will continue to delay and make the IJA expend troops and supplies - the supply expenditure is key…
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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 2/3/2015 4:29:29 AM >
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RE: 26-27 Mar 42 - 
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