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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 2:13:28 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline 		February 28, 1942

NJP is on the move in Australia. My assumption right now is that he intends to take over the whole continent.






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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 2:20:33 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
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Status: offline 		Does that mean he will stop bombing the industry? Can you hold? Are you scared?

I never liked the line of death, it is metagaming...so I am really looking forward to what happens here.


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Post #: 152
RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 2:32:05 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline 		This is obvious .. but build every base up in the Americas .. it does not seem like much but every point you build
up in the denominator means 3 more points needed in the numerator for AV.

Also .. although The Prime Minister of Aussie land is insisting on moving the spare troops there .. India or even
staging them in the US for deployment where the IJ are weaker might be a thought ..

The KB might be waiting in Australia for the convoy ...while troops arrive at a much different location .. just stave
off AV

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Post #: 153
RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 3:01:46 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Does that mean he will stop bombing the industry? Can you hold? Are you scared?

I never liked the line of death, it is metagaming...so I am really looking forward to what happens here.




If he captures the industry rather than bombing it he loses out on the VP's. However, Sydney is a boatload of VP's by itself.

Can I hold what? Alfred is right, Continental warfare is maneuver warfare. Southeast Australia is not going to be a roll over. He didnt capture or kill any significant troops yet.

Am I scared? No. If he doesnt pull the VP win off then he wont be in any condition to conduct a prolonged war. I must have misunderstood his intentions when we were discussing starting this game.

This game is simply a copy of the first game on steroids. NJP lost the first game not due to supply or territory or VP's. He lost the first game because he overexpanded and left waaaaaay too many gaps for me to exploit, isolate and kill his troops. Once he lost naval superiority the game was over. He could have prolonged it by more efficiently moving his troops and not doing things like leaving 1000 tanks and 100K troops on Formosa just to rot. He also could have prolonged it if he had been more flexible in China and realized the true threat but he did not. By the time he did the game was already over.

Scenario 2 DBB-C gives NJP the naval assets to completely blockade Australia and/or India and maybe both, I cannot be certain. In the last game the tide began to turn after the naval battle SW of Australia in October or November 1942 I believe. With the increased naval assets it will take me time to build up enough naval forces to be a significant threat.

I just made a big mistake with a group of troops moving across a river hex into Sian in China. I believe that there is a really good chance that NJP can take China this go round. He is already inside the inner circle and it is just turning March.

My intentions for this game were stated previously. To work on things I hadnt and to focus on the smaller organizational things. I have made great progress. However, due to the misunderstanding of objectives, taking time training your troops, navy and air forces is pretty irrelevant given an enemy who is intent at ending the game in January of 1943. I guess that means that I have been out maneuvered in regards to the whole war. LOL!!!

What I am not going to do is start throwing stuff around in desperation. If I lose, I lose. However, there are still in the range of 300 turns and 10 months between now and 1943. At this point I give him a 70% chance of getting the VP win.

If he doesnt get the VP win I predict the same outcome as before. Early win for the Allies. Either way, this game isnt going into 1946.














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Post #: 154
RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 3:26:01 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline 		Meanwhile, Back at the ranch...

Got a very interesting spotting of a fighter bomber over Sitka with a good ping on a small TF nearby. That almost couldnt have come from anything other than a carrier. If so, he is pretty deep in my coverage without me seeing him.






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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 4:51:23 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I have made great progress. However, due to the misunderstanding of objectives, taking time training your troops, navy and air forces is pretty irrelevant given an enemy who is intent at ending the game in January of 1943. I guess that means that I have been out maneuvered in regards to the whole war. LOL!!!



Too true. But it can work both ways...the Japan that prepares for an endgame in 45 can be destroyed in 43.

Unlike Joc's game, you haven't thrown away your BBs and have had no CV clash, Mr. Kane was always one step ahead of Joc crushing ships right and left. You have done a good job of preserving your ships so I rate your chance to avoid AV higher although I fully expect a clash in late 42 might be decisive at either staving off AV or not.

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 4:54:54 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Meanwhile, Back at the ranch...

Got a very interesting spotting of a fighter bomber over Sitka with a good ping on a small TF nearby. That almost couldnt have come from anything other than a carrier. If so, he is pretty deep in my coverage without me seeing him.



Technically, that is Alaskan waters. I just wanted to state I have no knowledge of any plans for or against in this theater although I always was intrigued by an Alaskan or Canadian gambit depending upon houserules, which I also don't recall for this game.

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 4:59:46 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Meanwhile, Back at the ranch...

Got a very interesting spotting of a fighter bomber over Sitka with a good ping on a small TF nearby. That almost couldnt have come from anything other than a carrier. If so, he is pretty deep in my coverage without me seeing him.



I bet the aircraft was actually just a Glen. Lots of FOW on aircraft IDs early on, especially on ships with inexperienced crews.

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Post #: 158
RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 5:07:07 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Meanwhile, Back at the ranch...

Got a very interesting spotting of a fighter bomber over Sitka with a good ping on a small TF nearby. That almost couldnt have come from anything other than a carrier. If so, he is pretty deep in my coverage without me seeing him.



I bet the aircraft was actually just a Glen. Lots of FOW on aircraft IDs early on, especially on ships with inexperienced crews.


The base reported it being a fighter bomber. You could of course be right. The coincidence part is that tomorrow is March 1, 1942 and that means no more winter penalties for attacking up in that area.

If he is going to come for this place, now would be the time.


< Message edited by Wargmr -- 3/1/2015 6:07:51 PM >

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 5:10:28 PM   
Mike McCreery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I have made great progress. However, due to the misunderstanding of objectives, taking time training your troops, navy and air forces is pretty irrelevant given an enemy who is intent at ending the game in January of 1943. I guess that means that I have been out maneuvered in regards to the whole war. LOL!!!



Too true. But it can work both ways...the Japan that prepares for an endgame in 45 can be destroyed in 43.

Unlike Joc's game, you haven't thrown away your BBs and have had no CV clash, Mr. Kane was always one step ahead of Joc crushing ships right and left. You have done a good job of preserving your ships so I rate your chance to avoid AV higher although I fully expect a clash in late 42 might be decisive at either staving off AV or not.



That is true too. However, show me a game where the Japanese went apeshit in 1942 yet didnt manage to get an AV win but then somehow managed to survive until 1946. I would like to see that AAR.


< Message edited by Wargmr -- 3/1/2015 6:10:55 PM >

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 5:26:14 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Meanwhile, Back at the ranch...

Got a very interesting spotting of a fighter bomber over Sitka with a good ping on a small TF nearby. That almost couldnt have come from anything other than a carrier. If so, he is pretty deep in my coverage without me seeing him.



I bet the aircraft was actually just a Glen. Lots of FOW on aircraft IDs early on, especially on ships with inexperienced crews.


The base reported it being a fighter bomber. You could of course be right. The coincidence part is that tomorrow is March 1, 1942 and that means no more winter penalties for attacking up in that area.

If he is going to come for this place, now would be the time.



You have not discussed radio chatter .. an invasion force should produce increased radio chatter if not decoded messages.


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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 5:30:36 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I have made great progress. However, due to the misunderstanding of objectives, taking time training your troops, navy and air forces is pretty irrelevant given an enemy who is intent at ending the game in January of 1943. I guess that means that I have been out maneuvered in regards to the whole war. LOL!!!



Too true. But it can work both ways...the Japan that prepares for an endgame in 45 can be destroyed in 43.

Unlike Joc's game, you haven't thrown away your BBs and have had no CV clash, Mr. Kane was always one step ahead of Joc crushing ships right and left. You have done a good job of preserving your ships so I rate your chance to avoid AV higher although I fully expect a clash in late 42 might be decisive at either staving off AV or not.



That is true too. However, show me a game where the Japanese went apeshit in 1942 yet didnt manage to get an AV win but then somehow managed to survive until 1946. I would like to see that AAR.



Probably the PzB contest could have lasted longer .. it went into defeat only that PzB quit with the supplies
out of whack ..but you are quite correct that many of AAR starts with the IJ going apeshit then resignation ..

However, NJP has proven he will give it a go until the end .. which will be different than PzB ..he might be able to extend the game.

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 5:40:13 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

managed to survive until 1946. I would like to see that AAR.



Not than many games make it to 1946 no matter what Japan does!

Obvevt vs Jocke maybe...he went kind of crazy in 42 with Oz and then a truce in China to keep the game going. If it wasn't a scenario one game it would have made 46 I bet.




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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 6:47:52 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Meanwhile, Back at the ranch...

Got a very interesting spotting of a fighter bomber over Sitka with a good ping on a small TF nearby. That almost couldnt have come from anything other than a carrier. If so, he is pretty deep in my coverage without me seeing him.



I bet the aircraft was actually just a Glen. Lots of FOW on aircraft IDs early on, especially on ships with inexperienced crews.


The base reported it being a fighter bomber. You could of course be right. The coincidence part is that tomorrow is March 1, 1942 and that means no more winter penalties for attacking up in that area.

If he is going to come for this place, now would be the time.



You have not discussed radio chatter .. an invasion force should produce increased radio chatter if not decoded messages.



Havent even checked it. I have no intention of going against him right now so intel is irrelevant.

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 9:56:48 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

Havent even checked it. I have no intention of going against him right now so intel is irrelevant.


Well it would complete the picture for you ....Radio Traffic and an airplane sighting together make a unique picture of deployment of forces



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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/1/2015 10:26:05 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		Kind of hard to believe you aren't even checking it...even if only to send some functioning Dutch subs to try and catch some troop convoys.

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Post #: 166
RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/3/2015 10:40:33 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		I'm glad to see that my fears that he would exploit the opportunity to run up massive VPs from strategic bombing were unfounded.

If he is going all in for Australia, at least that is something you have a fighting chance to contend with.

Will be interesting to see the emergency reinforcements come into play and how you will deliver them to the fight in their homeland.

I doubt he has sufficient naval strength or fuel to spare to completely isolate the south coast ports, but well timed sweeps there could catch incoming troops so it will definitely be dicey.

Looking forward to watching.

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/3/2015 10:44:14 AM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline 		I dont.. It is like a car wreck happening :P

The touted replacements are in pretty bad shape. Their training and morale is in the 30-50's. I am not going to rush them anywhere.

Right now NJP is slowly moving south towards Sydney. I do not know what to do.

My guess is that he wants me to come out of the cities and fight him on some other ground and then he can counter attack either from the west or by amphibious attack. That makes me want to stay and let him besiege me.

However, there are serious disadvantages to that strategy as well as he can do what I did in china and pin large groups of armies with much smaller ones and just move on to other pickings for a while as the defenders starve.

It is barely MARCH of 1942, just too early in the game to have anything that can compete against the Japanese.

Keeping combat ships in port on patrol is working most excellently. Their night time numbers are going up quickly. Not many 30's left now. It doesnt seem to help on the upper daylight side anywhere near as much. However, considering the bulk of combat is at night the extra experience should help a lot.



< Message edited by Wargmr -- 3/3/2015 11:53:21 AM >

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/6/2015 2:08:54 AM   
Mike McCreery


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Status: offline 		Early March.

I put a torp into a battleship. The game wasnt even kind enough to lie to me and tell me it sank...



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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/7/2015 1:46:05 AM   
Mike McCreery


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Status: offline 		March 13, 1942

The Japanese invade Tasmania in mid Mach of 1942.

I am not going to lie, I am totally demoralized. I have yet to get any planes and/or ships to be competitive enough to fight back. NJP is just smashing all of the pieces off of the table and leaving me nowhere to even set up for a counter attack.

Australia will be completely cut off within a week...

I did the math and if he simply takes Chungking, Manila and Singapore he is within 700 VP of 4-1. If he isolates Australia I cannot see a way back for the Allies.






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< Message edited by Wargmr -- 3/7/2015 4:20:13 AM >

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/7/2015 3:21:32 AM   
Mike McCreery


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His directed attack at the center of China has been much more effective and my attempt at blocking his supply seems to have had no effect.






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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/7/2015 9:20:11 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline 		March 15, 1942...

Japan invades Diamond harbor. They also smash all of the residual shipping at Tasmania.

Every time I get the game turn I am ready to play but after the replay I am just disgusted and usually just end the turn immediately and send it back...



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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/7/2015 10:15:58 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
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Status: offline 		March 17, 1942

Given the worsening situation and total destruction of several supply convoys combined with the fact that Australia is not approachable without attack by Japanese LBA, Truman has declared a fortress Pearl Harbor policy and ordered all allied shipping in the pacific to withdraw and assist in the supply and defense of the island and the eastern coast of the united states.

< Message edited by Wargmr -- 3/7/2015 11:16:08 PM >

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/7/2015 11:22:51 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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Status: offline 		Truman?? what happened to FDR??? heart attack after reading the Pacific war news??
But then, the vice-president in 1942 was Henry Wallace; Truman was just another little known senator.


I am very interested on how this will end... your opponent is uber aggresive

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/8/2015 12:25:46 AM   
Mike McCreery


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Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Truman?? what happened to FDR??? heart attack after reading the Pacific war news??
But then, the vice-president in 1942 was Henry Wallace; Truman was just another little known senator.


I am very interested on how this will end... your opponent is uber aggresive



LOL!!! Blame my laziness... I googled who was president ... I am going to leave the mistake for kicks and grins :]

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/8/2015 2:58:58 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
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Status: offline 		Stop whining, for goodness sake! You are the Allies. The Arsenal of Democracy! You have Sir Robin'ed like no one else.

Plan your counter attack now! You have till Jan 43 to avoid autovictory, you can have a focused, devastating attack by being bold and following Mahanic tactics. Or, you can nibble around the Empire.

You need to play some Ironman Nasty Nasty and get your but well and truly kicked. I think you are doing well. Go get em, Tiger!

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 3/8/2015 3:59:33 PM >

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/8/2015 6:12:47 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4320
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Status: offline 		You know those Australian emergency reinforcements can do wonders on India

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/8/2015 6:41:57 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

You know those Australian emergency reinforcements can do wonders on India



It is a possiblity. Just realized I could move troops to Capetown from Mombasa without ships. I knew it then forgot it.

Those troops have pretty poor training and morale at this point.

Remember, it is only mid March. I am trying to reserve troops so I can upgrade them. My plan isnt working very well to this point however.

Alternatively I could move them to Australia for a counter attack.

I am not even thinking about what is going to happen later this year. In June I will begin preparations for counterattacks by starting to prep troops. They will be ready by September. It may not be in time though.

Revealing my operational plan now shouldnt hurt anything. My intentions from the beginning of the game was to reduce the number of vectors I would be using to attack japan and attack along the northern and into the pacific along the western vector. To this end I would capture the Kavieng/Rabaul area and move northwest along New Guinea using the land for LBA cover while I moved. Once I got to the top I would continue northwest until Puerto-Principe was captured. This cuts off most of the oil in the DEI.

On the other vector I am looking at Pegu as an invasion point. I may send an invasion in without air cover or with minimal air cover as part of a 2 pronged attack one on each side of the map.

My hopes were for a much more naval game in the Pacific in late 1942 and most of 1943.

None of this has been eliminated, it is all still possible. However, usually the smart Japanese player does not waste resources on VP's he is going to lose to the Allies in late 42 and early 43 as NJP is doing. He is either going to win big in 43 or lose big.





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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/8/2015 6:45:35 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
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Status: offline 		Just for the record.

I have a feeling that all of NJP's troops have not been allocated and a hammer is yet to fall. I havent done any scientific or mathematic checking, it is just that my spider sense is tingling.

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RE: Groundhog Day! - 3/8/2015 7:07:51 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
He is either going to win big in 43 or lose big.



This sum it up!

if you avoid auto victory in 43, then any strategy you develop for later will work

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